Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Sorry, but things are so bad now that I do not want to say anything anymore. Just buy all the gold bits you can get your hands on and pray that the multinationals only believe in the crap of now. And they seem to.

 

[josjes]

As a long termer (1-3 yr holder), I loaded up physical Gold (buy the dip) since last April at 868, 880, and today 902 .
Gold TA always looks worst at the bottom, but it almost always surprise on the upside. Just keep it simple TA wise, 65 week MA has never been broken since the bull run 2001, it is now sitting at 786. In two months time it will be sitting at $840-850. IMO unlikely to drop trhu 700 let alone 600 as some members predicted in this forum.

With reports of the biggest jobless increase in over two decades, the largest housing bust since the Great Depression, Contagion spreading across the banking sector, KBX (Banking Index) broke through 5 year support level to the 2003 March level, Bernanke would not dare to increase rates as the severely understated economic contraction will intensify and the downward sliding economic snowball, gathering momentum, will likely burst into a banking/financial system collapse.

Helicopter Ben's recent "strong US dollar" talk is just that -- "talk", so don't expect any change from current policy.

 

[barrett]

Whoops.. bounced off 0.61 "C" target at 909 in last EW chart, now 2-day uptrend on the hourly looks like being broken.. I'm out of the market, will look to buy again in the next 24-48hrs, still bullish for the week. C could rather be the top of a new wave 1.... will wait for things to turn positive again to re-enter

 

[explod]

Whoops.. bounced off 0.61 "C" target at 909 in last EW chart, now 2-day uptrend on the hourly looks like being broken.. I'm out of the market, will look to buy again in the next 24-48hrs, still bullish for the week. C could rather be the top of a new wave 1.... will wait for things to turn positive again to re-enter

Wonderfull to just have to give only opinion. Go back over the thread and you will find, gold is goinig to US$ 50,000 PLUS per ounce and that is conservative IMHO.

 

[champion]

Well this is certainly getting interesting. All looks very positive for the gold price over the medium term (i.e. next few months) imo though of course I'd expect short term volatility in gold, oil, USD and the Dow will be the order of the day as the varying forces compete for control. We might be about to see the beginning of the end of the USD which means the potential for all hell to break loose with both oil and gold prices.

Unfortunately I'm only in gold stocks and energy (oil and coal) stocks and don't hold physical gold or futures, so I expect these stocks will suffer quite a bit with the exodus to cash in the short term on the Dow moves.

Heavy falls in our local markets could see some very good bargains appear in the junior oil and gold producer end of the market. A physical gold holding is looking like a good idea to me at the moment though as well - mayber its time.

Like Cuttlefiish,I hold gold & energy stocks & understand that they may fall heavily with the DOW downward shifts short term, but as the POG moves upwards ie. towards $1200-1400 surely these stocks could magnify the POG's earning capacity as opposed to physical gold.I understand much more risky but possibly a money making factory. Am I on the wrong track?

 

[MRC & Co]

I'm out of the market, will look to buy again

Same, I only had one contract open, but exited a little while ago.

Is forming a bit of a tail on the hourly, will wait for a break of around the 910 level and look for momentum before I will go long.

Looks like we may just get more chop tonight, getting used to that lately!

 

[barrett]

Wonderfull to just have to give only opinion. Go back over the thread and you will find, gold is goinig to US$ 50,000 PLUS per ounce and that is conservative IMHO.

I agree with the LT predictions you posted the other day Explod... even $50,000/oz... just sweeping up a few crumbs along the way

As always over 100% of my net worth remains invested in precious metals(slightly leveraged) but most of my posts only relate to the short term trading.
In my last post I just meant 865-909 could be a wave 1.. If so it would be positive for the next 1-2 weeks.

 

[barrett]

Same, I only had one contract open, but exited a little while ago.

Is forming a bit of a tail on the hourly, will wait for a break of around the 910 level and look for momentum before I will go long.

Looks like we may just get more chop tonight, getting used to that lately!

Yeah we're probably due for some choppy..... the 1 min EurUsd looks like the chart's weakening a bit along with the gold, both probably need a rest. Could go to 887? That's 50% ret and also a bit of a horizontal support line going back a bit further than this chart too...
spot gold hourly

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Short from yesterday afternoon and added a little more today.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Short from yesterday afternoon and added a little more today.

most profits taken rest to BE

 

[barrett]

What a ride, $40 in about 36 hours! If the daily close is below 880 tonight it would mean a break of the wedge support, which would probably have bearish implications for a few weeks... would be looking towards the 300DMA(65WMA) if that's the case.

That was nice trading Apocalypto, were you looking at a particular signal, or just trading your medium term bearish outlook?

I only have access to live currency cross charts, not the live US dollar index.. I'm very curious whether the pennant in the index that Explod mentioned has been broken to the upside.. and same for its downtrend line that's been discussed

 

[explod]

I'm very curious whether the pennant in the index that Explod mentioned has been broken to the upside.. and same for its downtrend line that's been discussed

The pennant has been breached to the upside by 00.003. There is some resistance at this point so the next 24yours will be of interest now. The PPT do seem to makes considerabe efforts at these technical points so we could see gold go down to $US840 I do think a lot of buying will come in at this point from theM/E and South East Asia.

 

[Trembling Hand]

slip sliding away!!

The PPT/Manipulators/Lairs/Cheats/table of 8 controlling gentleman/whatever you wanna call them are trying to feed the Gold/Silver/Commodity Bugs the Cucumber Rumba. Ouch!!

Will be a mountain of stops to clean out $15 bucks lower.

 

[Whiskers]

slip sliding away!!

The PPT/Manipulators/Lairs/Cheats/table of 8 controlling gentleman/whatever you wanna call them are trying to feed the Gold/Silver/Commodity Bugs the Cucumber Rumba. Ouch!!

Will be a mountain of stops to clean out $15 bucks lower.

Yes, even though my only holding includes gold, copper and various agri/industrial minerals I have to agree. The old G7 are abandoning gold to save the USD now... since it now seems that there ain't gonna be an 'official' recession.

I still think the factor driving the market atm is Oil... over inflated. If/when oil busts and settles back around 90/100 and the USD strengthens a bit more we should see any losses in USD gold made up for in AUD to a large extent.

 

[Fed23]

Im a newbie to this but I thought in time of market uncertainity that people sold out of banks or whatever and took hold of a physical asset just like gold.

When the market was crapping in jan, gold shot up, the market is back in that time now where it's a bloodbath but gold is not going up instead it's going down.

 

[Sean K]

Im a newbie to this but I thought in time of market uncertainity that people sold out of banks or whatever and took hold of a physical asset just like gold.

When the market was crapping in jan, gold shot up, the market is back in that time now where it's a bloodbath but gold is not going up instead it's going down.

Speculation oil is peaking and US has finished with rate cuts, IMO.

If either, or both, go the way gold wants it too, then you'll see POG rise.

And, if Isreal throw a nuke at Iran, watch out....

 

[explod]

Im a newbie to this but I thought in time of market uncertainity that people sold out of banks or whatever and took hold of a physical asset just like gold.

When the market was crapping in jan, gold shot up, the market is back in that time now where it's a bloodbath but gold is not going up instead it's going down.

Do not be too concerned. Gold is up about US$30 to 50 an ounce so far this year and $230 on 1 year ago. We could say it is going sideways at the moment while the financials are going down. It continues to bounce off support around the $US860 area and on which which I commented a week ago.

A lot of politics is involved in gold and its upward movement is also viewed as a threat to paper money. Because gold has intrinsic value it will prevail in due course to the upside.

cheers explod

 

[Trembling Hand]

I thought in time of market uncertainity that people sold out of banks or whatever and took hold of a physical asset just like gold.

what uncertainity?? Every man and his Gold fish knows how clapped out the western economies are. At the moment she's all priced in.

Beware of trading off last months themes. Look for the surprises not the 'news' your Taxi driver knows about.

 

[ithatheekret]

A look back to 2003 when the last bastion of the link between money and gold faded , this was when the Central Banks who had already tossed gold out and bowed to the Dollar , finally got the Banque of Settlements to follow the universal dictatum . One would have supposed that this was the end of gold as an asset if we were to follow the Wiggs and Keynesian train of thought .

But ..... I think BIS using SDRs which are virtually non existent money opened everyones eyes up to the fragility of the entire system as a whole . The banks latest run of events ...... the " crisis " , shows that binary dollars are very easy to manipulate , especially with the expansive approach . Bit hard to do that with a grain of wheat or a lump of steel , etc., etc ., etc.

When it comes down to times of uncertainty though , I always thought Cash was King , a few blocks of gold helps too .

 

[refined silver]

what uncertainity?? Every man and his Gold fish knows how clapped out the western economies are.

Thats funny, Bernanke and US financial TV are proclaiming the odds of a recession receding, and that its all good, not that its all bad.

At the moment she's all priced in.

Really? So you see financials, home-builders, debt-based assets and consumer goods not going any lower?

Beware of trading off last months themes. Look for the surprises not the 'news' your Taxi driver knows about.

Do you think the credit crisis, dollar crisis etc are month long themes?

Everyone knew about the 1929 bust, and everyone famously called bottoms all the way down. Just because all know doesn't mean its all priced in. Bear mkts slide down a "hill of hope".