Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Free Soul]

Nice. Could you possibly direct me to a tutorial for nubs? Also, does it make much of a difference when selling if getting older dirtier kruggies rather than shiny new mints?

 

[wayneL]

I think the fast stochastic is far better than Williams%R.

Notice the superior signals from the fast stoch...

:run:

 

[Free Soul]

I don't see any difference @ WayneL :

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Just my take on it atm, so my view is that barring some bullish gold event then the 'base' of $860 ish is forming a descending triangle?? although you could also squeeze in an asymmetrical triangle if you are optimistic?? Any takers?

 

[explod]

Just my take on it atm, so my view is that barring some bullish gold event then the 'base' of $860 ish is forming a descending triangle?? although you could also squeeze in an asymmetrical triangle if you are optimistic?? Any takers?

Just for the argument my take is that gold has been in a holding pattern with some volatility for 2008. The C/B's allowed it to have a bit of a run to oversold territory in order to ensure that the audience was listening, then smacked them down. The old cool hand luke's of course got suckered after the blowoff in 1980, but not this time, "told you so", so to speak (We learn from losses more than anything else in life).

So there is great fear of gold at both ends of the financial school system, is why you have cliff-falls like SBM.

Gold is the alternate money and the only one just about with any value, it is political and its rise signals that all is not well; we cant' have that now, can we.

We know that a crash is coming, and true to our recent teaching (lesson)gold will go with it too. I think W/P may have is day in the sun. But when the penny drops, with the currencies the gold will IMHO skyrocket, sometime after the US Pres., election

 

[Whiskers]

Just my take on it atm, so my view is that barring some bullish gold event then the 'base' of $860 ish is forming a descending triangle?? although you could also squeeze in an asymmetrical triangle if you are optimistic?? Any takers?

Yeah, I'm inclined to agee.

It's an interesting struggle going on at the moment between the POG, POO and the USD.

Turning that POG, lagging POO chart (that I posted earlier) around it looks to me that Oil is topping out, and given there is increasing political pressure to save the USD it seems the Nov, Dec 07 levels are significant and probably good support... in USD's.

Of course if the USD does get a bit more traction in the short/med term that in itself will equate to a better proposition for Aus industry.

If this scenario does transpire, we're effectively back to the more attractive POO, POG ratio's of late last year and a better POG in AUD's.

 

[SGB]

Just my take on it atm, so my view is that barring some bullish gold event then the 'base' of $860 ish is forming a descending triangle?? although you could also squeeze in an asymmetrical triangle if you are optimistic?? Any takers?

Hi Uncle

I'll throw in a Contracting Triangle.

SGB

 

[ithatheekret]

Not a prolific EW user here , but ......that does look like a contracting triangle to myself also . With that conclusion , I'd say a little stalled sideways action will eventuate into a spike ( hopefully a you beaut one ) . But it looks like a bullish event in the making , let's see if all the sidways action has run it's course for now and/or whether we revisit that 860 spot .........

 

[ithatheekret]

Something I should add , is that I follow the 200 day MA . I've had it down as the support area for years now . I consider it the main support area to work off of . When the price bounces off that support it tends to make like a rocket , if it breaches the support it goes into submarine mode . We've bounced off the 200MA so I expect some altitude to be forthcoming .

Current target on my board is $905 .

 

[rederob]

IAs such it comes as no surprise to me to see the current decline in Gold and rally in the USD which is exactly what we expected.

LOL
Still trotting out this line.

 

[cuttlefish]

current target on my board is $905 .

wow you got there pretty quickly!

The junior and mid-cap gold sector has been sold down pretty heavily of late so even a neutral gold price view has some of them looking like worthwhile buys.

 

[ithatheekret]

Let's see where POG closes in NY , we're in the zone , but the close price is the interest . It could go higher yet , there's a couple of factors in play on the sidelines with POO . It's interesting to see that silver decided to follow the leader , must of lost a shoe last night and had to go back and get it .............

We're now in June , Summer fun time on the way in the NH , inflation should dent some of the fun though . Word of some sort of attack on infrastructure in Nigeria , some think it will push POO up , I don't really subscribe to that notion ........ If GW were to push the wrong button when paging his PA for his decafe and accidently nuke Venezuela ........ well ............ , we'd see $200 POO then But China who seconds good old USA should manage to cap anything Nigeria can spit out , with the news of their latest on subsidy slashing effort . Quite a few subsidizing nations are doing this , but Chinas slash is close to 20% , so it should be good for oil for a week , ... hey but ...............

 

[Sean K]

$5000 anyone?

Schroder tips gold to hit $US5000
June 20, 2008 - 6:36AM

Gold prices may rise to $US5000 an ounce as investors seek to protect themselves against accelerating inflation, said Schroder Investment Management, which oversees $US277 billion of assets globally.

''You could easily see for the next several years that prices rise not to $US1000 an ounce, but prices rise to $US5000 an ounce or beyond as inflation psychology becomes more and more embedded and people become desperate to have a source of value,'' said Christopher Wyke, London-based emerging market debt and commodities product manager at Schroder, which oversees about $US10 billion of commodity assets.

Doesn't give any detailed anlysis for the price except 'inflation' really, so not sure of the value of the post.

 

[explod]

$5000 anyone?



Doesn't give any detailed anlysis for the price except 'inflation' really, so not sure of the value of the post.

This raises an interesting point.

As a very experienced poster you would be well aware that this inflation and fundamentally adjusted figure for the future gold price has been well noted with substancial backing throughout this thread. I realise the thread is now very long, however anyone at all serious about taking steps towards gold would be foolish indeed not to read thier way through it first.

Have been thinking of writing a paper based on this thread, fully noted of course, which with others could be something for ASF to devlope with postes having the desire and writing skills. I am sure we have good editors also.

 

[Sean K]

This raises an interesting point.

As a very experienced poster you would be well aware that this inflation and fundamentally adjusted figure for the future gold price has been well noted with substancial backing throughout this thread. I realise the thread is now very long, however anyone at all serious about taking steps towards gold would be foolish indeed not to read thier way through it first.

Have been thinking of writing a paper based on this thread, fully noted of course, which with others could be something for ASF to devlope with postes having the desire and writing skills. I am sure we have good editors also.

Not exactly sure what you're insinuating explod, but my point is the $5000 is not backed up with anything but 'inflation'. Why not $50000?

I have read the thread. Cheers.

 

[professor_frink]

Not exactly sure what you're insinuating explod, but my point is the $5000 is not backed up with anything but 'inflation'. Why not $50000?

I have read the thread. Cheers.

why not 100 billion dollars(raises little finger up to mouth Dr evil style)

If gold was to reach $5k an ounce, what would that mean for everything else? $1000 oil. 1 AUD buying 5 USD. World War 3 would surely have to be on the way pretty soon after.

Time to buy shotguns and a patch of land in the middle of nowhere if that happens

 

[barrett]

Well that was a great call on last night's price move Itha, Explod... a breakout did occur through the resistance of UF's most recently posted wedge.. afterwards gold held up comparatively well despite a heavy selloff in oil... it should be quite bullish... but there are a few things spooking me at the moment...

1. HUI and XAU were actually down 1% and 0.76% last night, respectively, despite the gold breakout and stock markets having a fair up day.

2. Oil breakdown below wedge support? chart attached. Also, last night's oil selloff occurred on high volume (not so for gold though).

3. Gold double top at 908.8 spot?

If the gold breakout turns out to be held, the wedge that SGB posted puts the next strong resistance at around 920 on the daily close for the next day or two...

Any further points/ideas about last night's action?
Cheers

 

[Uncle Festivus]

why not 100 billion dollars(raises little finger up to mouth Dr evil style)

If gold was to reach $5k an ounce, what would that mean for everything else? $1000 oil. 1 AUD buying 5 USD. World War 3 would surely have to be on the way pretty soon after.

Time to buy shotguns and a patch of land in the middle of nowhere if that happens

My view - open to alternatives?

I think it's all relative. Are the figures quoted $US? If then why? The relative value of gold is universally 'measured' in $USD, but all that's doing is measuring the increase of those units of 'value' in circulation ie currency debasement. Gold is the baseline for all fiat currency systems. I would assume that if you found the currency that gold has appreciated the least you would have the economy that is being managed the best, relative to all other economies?

It all fit's nicely to the time frame from 1971 and the subsequent unrestrained creation of 'IOU nothings' and paradigms like 'the market always rises' or house prices always go up'. They (prices) go up because of continued & assured monetary inflation every time it looks like they are going to go down in 'value'. Politicians want the wealth effect now, without worrying about the future.

So now we are at the point were the world has to decide if they want a pocket full of depreciating units of arbitrary value or whether they get replaced by units of 'real' universal value backed by an entity that cannot be created easily?

Central bankers are finding that the tricks they have used for 40 years no longer work because there is no 'value' to be gained because things are fully valued eg inflationised to the max.

A critical juncture for possibly the entire global community is here, so can the junta of financial system alchemists going by the name of central banks once and for all be "masters of their domain" (I'm sure some of them have failed daily by the rhetoric coming out these days ) or if fiat currencies are relegated to a period of 'adjustment'???

Pontification ends - now

 

[>Apocalypto<]

My view - open to alternatives?

I think it's all relative. Are the figures quoted $US? If then why? The relative value of gold is universally 'measured' in $USD, but all that's doing is measuring the increase of those units of 'value' in circulation ie currency debasement. Gold is the baseline for all fiat currency systems. I would assume that if you found the currency that gold has appreciated the least you would have the economy that is being managed the best, relative to all other economies?

It all fit's nicely to the time frame from 1971 and the subsequent unrestrained creation of 'IOU nothings' and paradigms like 'the market always rises' or house prices always go up'. They (prices) go up because of continued & assured monetary inflation every time it looks like they are going to go down in 'value'. Politicians want the wealth effect now, without worrying about the future.

So now we are at the point were the world has to decide if they want a pocket full of depreciating units of arbitrary value or whether they get replaced by units of 'real' universal value backed by an entity that cannot be created easily?

Central bankers are finding that the tricks they have used for 40 years no longer work because there is no 'value' to be gained because things are fully valued eg inflationised to the max.

A critical juncture for possibly the entire global community is here, so can the junta of financial system alchemists going by the name of central banks once and for all be "masters of their domain" (I'm sure some of them have failed daily by the rhetoric coming out these days ) or if fiat currencies are relegated to a period of 'adjustment'???

Pontification ends - now

LOL mate you should be writing books that was beautiful! ha ha ha

 

[explod]

Not exactly sure what you're insinuating explod, but my point is the $5000 is not backed up with anything but 'inflation'. Why not $50000?

I have read the thread. Cheers.

Throughout the thread it is backed up by very many facits of informnation. I suppose what I am saying is that if one is aware that it is backed up within the document (ie. this thread) then why do we have to be pedantic on every post. I have been acused (and penalised) for being too general sometimes and being too dogmatic and pedantic at others, but when others do it is ok. I thnik to say gold is going to $5000 is ok and well backed up. When time permits I will find the references backed with the facts and post it up.