Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

Throughout the thread it is backed up by very many facits of informnation. I suppose what I am saying is that if one is aware that it is backed up within the document (ie. this thread) then why do we have to be pedantic on every post. I have been acused (and penalised) for being too general sometimes and being too dogmatic and pedantic at others, but when others do it is ok. I thnik to say gold is going to $5000 is ok and well backed up. When time permits I will find the references backed with the facts and post it up.

Hi explod, This is about the post I splashed up, and the $5000 target, with no real analysis. Why is it now about you? If you can justify a $5000 target, great! Would help my LGL and NCM quite a bit. I'll go off now to study up about inflation. Cheers, kennas.

 

[SGB]

Well that was a great call on last night's price move Itha, Explod... a breakout did occur through the resistance of UF's most recently posted wedge.. afterwards gold held up comparatively well despite a heavy selloff in oil... it should be quite bullish... but there are a few things spooking me at the moment...

1. HUI and XAU were actually down 1% and 0.76% last night, respectively, despite the gold breakout and stock markets having a fair up day.

2. Oil breakdown below wedge support? chart attached. Also, last night's oil selloff occurred on high volume (not so for gold though).

3. Gold double top at 908.8 spot?

If the gold breakout turns out to be held, the wedge that SGB posted puts the next strong resistance at around 920 on the daily close for the next day or two...

Any further points/ideas about last night's action?
Cheers

Hi Barrett,

Until the beginning of this week I was a WP supporter and had thought Gold would give us a descent retrace, probably not as much as WP, but a 61.8% retrace to 790-800 ,back in Aug 07, the start of the 1st leg. (original chart below, that I was working on before this weeks move. see the diff in wave count)

Which would have made logical sense because of the bullish pennant that was formed at the end of 07. But my view has changed this week because of the little run up we had in Wave C.

Now, if this is a Contracting Triangle (different setup to the wedge), it is going to be a pretty good leg up, although I would have preferred the Minor ABC correction to play out and to confirm the MAJOR 3 wave.

My view will turn bearish again though if 840 is breached.

Just my view.

SGB

 

[explod]

Hi explod, This is about the post I splashed up, and the $5000 target, with no real analysis. Why is it now about you? If you can justify a $5000 target, great! Would help my LGL and NCM quite a bit. I'll go off now to study up about inflation. Cheers, kennas.

I apologise as I did not mean to get to this point with you Kennas. I respect and regard you as a valuable mentor.

To be fair, IMHO (and conceed I am not too humble sometimes) Schroder in his article outlines, including inflation, other matters supporting his contention. Without pasting the article, we are talking supply getting tight, size of gold market over derivatives (its' space frame, if you can get your head, and it's hard, around those numbers which look like imploding soon) and others facits. Probably slanted for his own cause of course.

But think it is backed up ok., but am no expert and often wrong.

Cheers and sorry to take matters off topic. explod

ps.

And yes why not $50,000 on a longer term time frame. Probably the specific figure is a problem. But on the multiples of the 1970 bull, $5,000 per ounce is just a bit over the ball park figure to the blow off top.

 

[barrett]

Hi Barrett,

Until the beginning of this week I was a WP supporter and had thought Gold would give us a descent retrace, probably not as much as WP, but a 61.8% retrace to 790-800 ,back in Aug 07, the start of the 1st leg. (original chart below, that I was working on before this weeks move. see the diff in wave count)

Which would have made logical sense because of the bullish pennant that was formed at the end of 07. But my view has changed this week because of the little run up we had in Wave C.

Now, if this is a Contracting Triangle (different setup to the wedge), it is going to be a pretty good leg up, although I would have preferred the Minor ABC correction to play out and to confirm the MAJOR 3 wave.

My view will turn bearish again though if 840 is breached.

Just my view.

SGB

Your views are very welcome around here, whichever direction they point in... good to have you on board.

During the day it looks like gold had a textbook low volume retracement back to the breakout point.. have given up trying to describe the oil chart... but another clue may come from the EURUSD which looks to be putting in a base..

 

[ans25]

Hi everyone,
Nice thread we have here, I was just wondering can someone provide me with some gold threads, Im thinking of topping up after a bit of research.

Thanks

 

[Whiskers]

Gold falling like a rock. Struth, 875 and falling faster than I can post.

Oil should folllow.

 

[wayneL]

Wacked at the open. Any news? CB selling or something?

 

[cuttlefish]

wow its on an elevator to the basement, very impressive cliff jump.

 

[cuttlefish]

wonder if there's any chance of it retracing just as quickly.

 

[wayneL]

wonder if there's any chance of it retracing just as quickly.

The wheel is spinning... place your bets, place your bets.

 

[cuttlefish]

These sharp downturns in the days prior to fed gatherings have been a recurring theme this year though haven't they?

 

[Whiskers]

Wacked at the open. Any news? CB selling or something?

Just my guess that if the amount of reported speculative holdings in oil, abt 71% according to a US congressman, and given a likely steady fall in the rate of demand for Oil in the US... and by no means least of all, getting consumers, politicans, refiners and producers pissed off over the current price of oil... those speculativce interests are probably getting worried about tightening up regulation of the oil market and getting caught holding expensive contracts as consumer rebellion sets in to kill demand.

The consequence would be a significant drop in inflation forcasts and consequently the POG.

Gonna be interesting how the treasury and the FED see the POO after the weekend summit.

 

[Whiskers]

Looks like there is plenty of support for killing off the oil speculators.

If Stupaks 50% reduction in fuel costs is anywhere near correct, that must pretty much wipe out oil contributing to inflation for awhile... and put the skids under the POG too probably.

Democrats offer another bill to curb oil speculation
Monday June 23, 8:39 am ET
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer


Congress will focus on energy speculation on Monday, as some lawmakers blamed Wall Street traders for record oil and gasoline prices.

Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., the chair of a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee, will investigate whether further regulation of trading is warranted.


On Sunday, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama said that as president he would strengthen government oversight of energy traders. His Republican rival, Sen. John McCain, said he has supported efforts to close the "Enron loophole."


"We can eliminate a major avenue that traders use to avoid oversight," said Stupak at a press conference Friday. "It's time for Congress to close the Enron loophole and lower our gas and diesel prices by 50%

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080623/062308_energy_speculation.html."

 

[RobinHood]

I wonder what this "major avenue" is which causes trader "oversight"?

 

[Whiskers]

I wonder what this "major avenue" is which causes trader "oversight"?

That would be a loose, relatively unregulated electronic market place.

and excuse me, but what exactly is the "enron loophole"? It sounds like another one of those wishy-washy bureaucratic terms meaning nothing.

Enron was a major energy company in the US that became riddled with corruption and fraud and eventually collapsing.

A brief summary at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron

 

[wayneL]

Also: www.closetheenronloophole.com/

 

[RobinHood]

Thankyou.

That would be a loose, relatively unregulated electronic market place.

So according to this guy(Stupak), the "unregulated" market place has caused speculators to incorrectly determine the price of crude?
So his / govt committee perception of fair value is right and everyone else (especially big nasty speculators) is wrong?

P.S. I'm not trying to start a debate here, just want some opinions (on practicality).

 

[ithatheekret]

Thankyou.



So according to this guy(Stupak), the "unregulated" market place has caused speculators to incorrectly determine the price of crude?
So his / govt committee perception of fair value is right and everyone else (especially big nasty speculators) is wrong?

P.S. I'm not trying to start a debate here, just want some opinions (on practicality).

I can add another probing question ? Because I think it would expose the perceptions for what they are .

What are these speculators fixated on ?

 

[Temjin]

Wacked at the open. Any news? CB selling or something?

Haha it's another classic rapid selloff when the NYMEX starts. Remember I talked about it previously? (manipulation claims) But I now have some doubts about the manipulation, so let's not get back to it now.

It's scary and a shame that I actually THOUGHT about the possibility of this rapid drop first thing in the New York morning. Cos the pattern seem to repeat itself so often that one can almost develop a system based on this! (ok, I haven't got to it yet...)

There is really no significant fundamental-related news for the sell off. Oil was higher overnight and US dollars hardly moved.

I'm just patiently waiting for the weekly signal and for the cycle to resume its trend sometime in August/Sep, or maybe Oct.

 

[cuttlefish]

I wonder what this "major avenue" is which causes trader "oversight"?

So according to this guy(Stupak), the "unregulated" market place has caused speculators to incorrectly determine the price of crude?
So his / govt committee perception of fair value is right and everyone else (especially big nasty speculators) is wrong?

P.S. I'm not trying to start a debate here, just want some opinions (on practicality).

RobinHood - my interpretation of the phrasing used ("We can eliminate a major avenue that traders use to avoid oversight") is that its not about causing traders to have oversight but that there are major avenues that allow traders (i.e. large hedge funds) to avoid regulatory oversight thus enabling them to manipulate markets unchecked.


What I find ironic is that when 'punters' blame gold price falls on government manipulation thats considered paranoid conspiracy theory but when the government blames oil price rises on hedge fund manipulation thats perfectly legit.