Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[barrett]

what is it with these americans. Day after day I come out on top scalping the Euro market.. then every night without fail the yanks come in and screw everything up. Manipulation, little 'games', nonsensical price action, may as well be shopping at woolies and coles, everyone gets fleeced... except of course whoever's running the 'shop'. Is anyone here successfully scalping this action since the nfp announcement? I think I'd be a lot richer if I just went to sleep at 11pm along with the rest of the world rather than paying these people to send me insane!

 

[refined silver]

Something else to take into consideration?? I thunk.. Core CPE data showed that price pressures remain held in in the stumbling US with the index up only around 2.1% or so over the year . The subdued inflation may be seen to add fresh pressure on gold, a typical inflation hedge?? or maybe nott...


Cheers
............Kauri

The official CPI numbers are so pummelled, tortured and water-boarded they will confess to anything, and are so far removed from reality, everyone knows they are a joke. The really dangerous thing for authorities is that inflationary expectations are taking over as everyone sees, gas, food, utilities, school fees, medical etc heading way up. For an Administration which runs totally on spin and PR, inflationary expectations which take a hold are their worst nightmare.

Gold is resuming its march to $1600 very shortly.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

see u later 850 support :microwave:rippergun

Huh? What data are you refering to? Could you post some supporting analysis? So far it has held, as per chart. For now at least?

 

[Sean K]

Huh? What data are you refering to? Could you post some supporting analysis? So far it has held, as per chart. For now at least?

Referring to 1300 on the 2nd maybe? Otherwise, that looks to be holding up pretty well there. Damn, I ´d love to see a higher low and high, but sentiment seems to be going financials and all ´s hunkey dorey right now. Surely not!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Referring to 1300 on the 2nd maybe? Otherwise, that looks to be holding up pretty well there. Damn, I ´d love to see a higher low and high, but sentiment seems to be going financials and all ´s hunkey dorey right now. Surely not!

That was when the NFP was announced, but recoverd quickly thereafter. All very convenient if you ask me. Read between the lines and wait for the revisions.

 

[Kauri]

The official CPI numbers are so pummelled, tortured and water-boarded they will confess to anything, and are so far removed from reality, everyone knows they are a joke. The really dangerous thing for authorities is that inflationary expectations are taking over as everyone sees, gas, food, utilities, school fees, medical etc heading way up. For an Administration which runs totally on spin and PR, inflationary expectations which take a hold are their worst nightmare.

Gold is resuming its march to $1600 very shortly.

Huh? What data are you refering to? Could you post some supporting analysis? So far it has held, as per chart. For now at least?

Likewise, UF has posed my question...

 

[refined silver]

Likewise, UF has posed my question...

Hi Kauri, sometimes your posts a tad cryptic. I assume you're asking for supporting evidence for the gold $1600? It was in the post. Inflationary expectations and real inflation will very soon trump spin and PR and official figures which are treated as a joke. The fundamental trend will resume very shortly, eveidence of fundamentals I've posted a few times recently, in a list the last time.

As for TA, evidence, I also said Gold and silver have a habit of looking their worst before resuming trend over. Check a long term chart - last 8 years. I also posted recently, long term trend line breaks were actually best buying times in gold, in this bull. Have a look.

 

[wavepicker]

The fundamental trend will resume very shortly, eveidence of fundamentals I've posted a few times recently, in a list the last time.

Yes but when will the price trend continue? Are they the same?
IMO fundementals lag the price.

Check a long term chart - last 8 years. I also posted recently, long term trend line breaks were actually best buying times in gold, in this bull. Have a look.

You are projecting the past trend into the future here, assuming the same buying conditions will exist again. We are interested in what is most likely to happen in the future not what has happened in the past. Past patterns can repeat again in the future, and understanding and recognizing when or are about to form again is a the key. The market is leaving us clues ATM in the form of patterns and the pattern of trend. That pattern of trend is still bearish, and until it gives evidence that it is not then one must assume there is further downside. Yes, chances are we get a rally at some point in time, but more liekly a bounce before a resumption IMO. If evidence of something more bullish materializes then so bit, but that has not happened yet.

Cheers

 

[explod]

Yes but when will the price trend continue? Are they the same?
IMO fundementals lag the price.



You are projecting the past trend into the future here, assuming the same buying conditions will exist again. We are interested in what is most likely to happen in the future not what has happened in the past. Past patterns can repeat again in the future, and understanding and recognizing when or are about to form again is a the key. The market is leaving us clues ATM in the form of patterns and the pattern of trend. That pattern of trend is still bearish, and until it gives evidence that it is not then one must assume there is further downside. Yes, chances are we get a rally at some point in time, but more liekly a bounce before a resumption IMO. If evidence of something more bullish materializes then so bit, but that has not happened yet.

Cheers

Interesting that you have wandered into the realm of fundamental consideration "...assuming the same buying conditions will exist again."

It may well correct down further but the long term uptrend is well intact on which I described on this thread last night.

 

[refined silver]

Yes but when will the price trend continue? Are they the same?
IMO fundementals lag the price.

In the quote was the answer. "Very shortly"

Fundamentals DO NOT lag price til the end of a long term secular trend.

You are projecting the past trend into the future here, assuming the same buying conditions will exist again. We are interested in what is most likely to happen in the future not what has happened in the past.

For a TA or cycle guy to say he doesn't consider the past seems a bit silly.

The same upward trend will continue becasue the fundamentals are if anything, even more bullish than they have been for much of this trend. (Refer to the list posted a day or two ago, if you've forgotten, or don't what they are.)

The market is leaving us clues ATM in the form of patterns and the pattern of trend. That pattern of trend is still bearish, and until it gives evidence that it is not then one must assume there is further downside. Cheers

Disagree. The correction is either over of very close to being so IMHO.

 

[wavepicker]

Interesting that you have wandered into the realm of fundamental consideration "...assuming the same buying conditions will exist again."

It may well correct down further but the long term uptrend is well intact on which I described on this thread last night.

Hello James,

I am doing no so such thing, I was referring to RS's comments there. As far as my opinion is concerned it is bearish and remains bearish until such time that the market says otherwise. I concede that I could be wrong with this analysis as anything is possible, but feel the technical evidence is stacked in the bears favour at present. I am also very well aquainted with EW patterns that give high probability conditions( through trial and error and experience). I have paid my dues in learning these patterns through the years, just like others have in learning their craft.

I am not hoping for further declines to rub the bulls up the wrong way, just trade it as I see it. I have made it quite clear to you I am secular trend bullish Gold and precious metals, but refuse to hold during a hefty decline. There will be plenty of buying opportunities for precious metals in the next 8-9 years IMO, but now is not the time IMO.

Cheers

 

[refined silver]

That pattern of trend is still bearish, and until it gives evidence that it is not then one must assume there is further downside.

Fridays COT report very interesting:

Large commercials added nearly 6,000 new longs and covered over 8,000 shorts.

The trading funds covered longs, but didn't add to shorts.

The small specs added over 12,000 new shorts!

Although, still net long, its the small specs who are turning most bearish! Same on this board! Not the best indicator!

 

[wavepicker]

For a TA or cycle guy to say he doesn't consider the past seems a bit silly.

I didn't say I don't consider the past. I just consider it completely different to you.

You are projecting a trend into the future relative to a trend line and assume it will continue, because it has done so in the past.

I look at past patterns, cycles and recognize that they can repeat again at certain times in the future but do not assume they will continue to repeat because they have done is in a past trend. In fact I use them as a guide to do the opposite, or if a certain type of pattern has formed, then chances are a completely different one will form next time around. It's called the "LAW OF ALTERNATION".

Patterns are your best tool IMO. In the end what we aim to do is recognize when a trend is in place and stay with it until it is at risk of ending. The pattern of the current trend(current juncture) is your best friend.

If you think what I am saying about TA is a crock of **** and only FA guys make $$ which you have done in the past, then consider this guy

Dan Zanger


http://www.chartpattern.com/cf/index.cfm


who has made and continue to make millions purely from chart pattern analysis. One of the books on his reading list is EWP. He must be doing something right!

 

[wavepicker]

Fridays COT report very interesting:

Large commercials added nearly 6,000 new longs and covered over 8,000 shorts.

The trading funds covered longs, but didn't add to shorts.

The small specs added over 12,000 new shorts!

Although, still net long, its the small specs who are turning most bearish! Same on this board! Not the best indicator!

I won't dispute we will get bounces now and again.

 

[Kauri]

One thing that has me a tad baffled is that from $0 through to $1030 and now back to $850 odd gives a gentle dip of the best part of 18%... and a lot of Fundementalists have been telling anyone wiiling to listen that very soon the uptrend will resume and $1200... $1500.. $1600.. gold is just around the corner.. and backing it up with all manner of reasoning... well the peak was in mid March, we are now into May and down near 18%... so just when is soon, and... why are the reasons that were going to cause the uptrend to resume near everyday since mid March.. stll valid now, having failed to pull up the gently easing decline so far???
If I post where I think Gold is heading I am asked for a price within a couple of dollars, within a range of a couple of days, and solid reasons why..... I wonder if I could get away within 18%, 40 days odd, etc...
Just curious, not critical..

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[refined silver]

One thing that has me a tad baffled is that from $0 through to $1030 and now back to $850 odd gives a gentle dip of the best part of 18%... and a lot of Fundementalists have been telling anyone wiiling to listen that very soon the uptrend will resume and $1200... $1500.. $1600.. gold is just around the corner.. and backing it up with all manner of reasoning... well the peak was in mid March, we are now into May and down near 18%... so just when is soon, and... why are the reasons that were going to cause the uptrend to resume near everyday since mid March.. stll valid now, having failed to pull up the gently easing decline so far???
If I post where I think Gold is heading I am asked for a price within a couple of dollars, within a range of a couple of days, and solid reasons why..... I wonder if I could get away within 18%, 40 days odd, etc...
Just curious, not critical..

Cheers
...........Kauri

You trade the 3 minute bar, others follow the weekly, (and fundamentals), for general direction.

Again not critical at all, just I think this explains the difference.

 

[explod]

You trade the 3 minute bar, others follow the weekly, (and fundamentals), for general direction.

Again not critical at all, just I think this explains the difference.

Yep but I agree with both. I have learnt from reading economists that the US$ is eventually doomed because it is backed by debt and they have no productive GDP. Throughout history this dynamic has always transerred the value back to gold. Inflation adjusted gold has a long way up to go.

When, I do not know and I think most of us are agreed on those basic ideas.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

For the techs, an interesting juncture for gold @ 850 - will it be self fulfilling?

This chart and others at
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6131_Charts_for_5-2-2008_Part_2.pdf

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Huh? What data are you refering to? Could you post some supporting analysis? So far it has held, as per chart. For now at least?

850$ support was a area that is a support point mentioned by another member.

 

[explod]

For the techs, an interesting juncture for gold @ 850 - will it be self fulfilling?

This chart and others at
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6131_Charts_for_5-2-2008_Part_2.pdf

Well it did exactly that in 05/06 and if it follows in the same way on this correctio there could be a bit more downside to shake out yet.