Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[ithatheekret]

I had my taste of Karma last week , entered spot and then watched it roll backwards . Fortunately sphincter reactions caused me to kill the trade before it hit the stop . I'm glad I didn't leave it to a leap of faith whilst away , or I'd be a few grand out of pocket by now . But when the trade is going against you ............. why hang around for the killing when you aren't making it ............?

Unfortunately I followed the herd down also , but jumped off the train way too early .

Wasn't a day ending with a Y either , so it must have been an Abbott day ...... you know , chit happens ...........

 

[Whiskers]

Evening Wavepicker,

Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.

I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.

As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.

We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.

Yeah, I noticed that too Porper, back on last page... and it's hanging around there again now.

Bit of a shuddering thought at first. But it might take a few months to get there.

Better, cos I'm heavy gold and copper stocks atm.

I'm a bit of a fence sitter, based on F/A but usually time my trade on T/A. Always watching I dont get caught up by the proverbiaals.

 

[Kauri]

to harp on an old chestnut... but it still looks impulsive down and corrective up??? I thunk...

Glittering
.............Kauri

 

[VViCKiD]

What does everyone think of gold stocks in the situation ? Do you think we have hit an area of support on the POG?

 

[explod]

Part of the Aden Sisters report published a few days ago:-

BULL MARKET HAS MORE YEARS TO RUN

Some worry that the March peak was THE peak for gold. This is very unlikely considering the world situation and the economic imbalances today. Plus, demand for gold is growing strongly. It truly is an international, expanding market and it’s easy for people to buy. Last month, for instance, Chinese banks began trading gold futures.

The gold market is currently more powerful compared to the 1970s. There is much more money behind the move. Whether it be China, India, the Middle East, Russia or elsewhere, the world has mega wealth and it’s acquiring gold.

What to watch for

Gold’s 65-week moving average works very well in identifying the major trend (see Chart 3A). The gold price has been consistently above this level since August, 2001. This average provides solid support at $770. For now, gold is vulnerable below $950 (basis June) and it’ll be weak in a D decline once it stays clearly below $888.

by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

 

[Kauri]

Part of the Aden Sisters report published a few days ago:-

part of the Gold chart... published a couple of minutes ago...

Glittering .....
.................kauri.. (gum?)

 

[Porper]

What has correctness between methods got to do with this thread. Do you enjoy trying to pick one side up against the other.


With t/a and f/a there are infinate variables of time, motion and volume, that I would defy anyone to be able to distinguish who is right or wrong or who wins.

Surely we are adult investors working at a very serious business.

Sorry, couldn't resist explode, I thought that last line would bring you out.

Yes, we are in a serious business but forums are a place to let off some steam at times and have a bit of a laugh.I personally do not hold any Gold stocksn neither am I short so it really doesn't matter to me if Gold flies or, as I suspect collapses, however if their is a clear indication in the next few weeks where it is going I will trade in that direction.

This I think is the main difference between T/A & F/A.

We will know when we are wrong, I suspect you will hang on for dear life unable to accept you were wrong.

Most of the posters here put forward their best views or take on where the gold price is heading..

I thought I had made it clear what direction I think Gold is heading have I not ?

 

[wavepicker]

Part of the Aden Sisters report published a few days ago:-

Hello explod,

Thanks for the Aden Sisters comments. They certainly have a good record with secular trends and I agree with them that the secular trend is up.
But even in secular trends we have multi year retracements(we had a brief one 06 but this one will be bigger). They mention the historical support at the 65Week MA which just so happens to be 764. Even that in itself is a long way down from where we are, but don't forget that just because it has acted as a support level in the past, does not mean it will be the case this time. I prefer to take the cycles and TIME FACTOR into consideration as well. That says we have completed an impulse of a major degree of trend upward since 1999 and therefore should correct back to between 38.5-50% of the whole impulse or the previous 4th wave of one less degree which is the SPAN of the consolidation we had had from May 06 to August last year (635-741) but it could also retrace back as low as the 61.8% level which is 550 but that is lower probability IMO as most wave 2's statistically retrace 38.2-50%.

So I am betting that price wil break the 65W MA on this occasion. Just like the 200 day MA acted as support for the XAO bull run repeatedly and was broken in the current bear campaign.

I personally like to trade the direction of the trend at whereby I can get as much of a bite of the pie as possible. ie muti week/month swing trades.

Others like you like to hold very long term and ride it out, I don't have the patience or the nerve to do so and find it nerve wracking to give back gains.

But everyone is different

Cheers

 

[explod]

Sorry, couldn't resist explode, I thought that last line would bring you out.

Yes, we are in a serious business but forums are a place to let off some steam at times and have a bit of a laugh.I personally do not hold any Gold stocksn neither am I short so it really doesn't matter to me if Gold flies or, as I suspect collapses, however if their is a clear indication in the next few weeks where it is going I will trade in that direction.

This I think is the main difference between T/A & F/A.

We will know when we are wrong, I suspect you will hang on for dear life unable to accept you were wrong.


I thought I had made it clear what direction I think Gold is heading have I not ?

And I thought I had made it clear that it could go down in the shorter period also. It could also go up and it could also hold at support. Part of that was by t/a as well. And I have friends who do not make comments of this thread but follow it closely from a serious perspective. Making fun can be very missleading to some. If you want to have fun there are plenty of threads aimed at just that. It is interesting that many who follow t/a are very dogmatic in just that and can become quite nasty when alternate views are expressed. I am firmly of the view that t/a is the only way (apart from insider knowledge) that the short term can be guaged. In the long term it is the trend and then some f/a to back selections. So to stamp me as a fundamentalist is a long way off track.

Interesting on ABC news as I woke up they said that gold had gone down on fears of a US recession.

 

[Whiskers]

What does everyone think of gold stocks in the situation ? Do you think we have hit an area of support on the POG?

POG seems to be going lower in the short/medium term.

As to the effect on gold stocks, that's gonna be interesting. I'm expecting the USD to firm a bit which would have the effect of lowering the price, but in AUD terms it may not change too much too quickly... assuming the AUD will depreciate as the USD firms. There seems to still be limited supply so it may get down to the impact of speculators divesting as to how low it eventually goes.

But, I'm tipping that any big fall will be pretty short lived. There has been some buyer resistance especially for commercial use at recent levels and because probably most people are still wanting to invest in gold for the longer term, I think if it gets down in the 700's again buyers will be in like bees to a honey pot. A lot of opinion still sees POG around $1,000 or so again towards the end of the year or early next.

So I'm still keen on gold stocks especially near producers and active (undervalued) junior explorers.

 

[explod]

The following explanation from Jim Sinclare indicates where it is at.

Jim,

Everything is going to hell in a hand-basket. Is there any explanation about the major miners' decline and gold?

CIGA Joe.

Dear CIGA Joe,

The following is what has pressured gold and caused short covering in the dollar/euro:

Media has convinced the public that the Fed will go hawkish, first by decelerating the drop in interest rates. The deceleration has been attributed to the Fed having done the right thing.

Media has convinced the public that the ECB will reduce interest rates now faster than the Fed, thereby boosting the dollar versus the euro.

Although the business statistics are negative, the media has held out the carrot that it takes six months for the Fed's action to materialize in the economy so all will be well in six to nine months.

The idea that the credit crisis is over is the message that firming financials are communicating as media supports that position.

Media has declared gold as DEAD.

90% of the above is raving BS. There is no way the Fed can go hawkish without causing, via the equity market, the revelation that nothing has changed for the better. There is no mention of the impact lower Federal Tax revenues will have on the US Federal Budget deficit and its negative weight on the dollar. There is no mention of the desire of many central banks to diversify out of the dollar when a short covering rally presents itself.

I feel whatever gold has to do on the downside will be covered by the end of the first week of May. I have written recently on junior gold shares which you can review by clicking here.

Regards,
Jim

And if the Fed do not lower rates, as I suspect may be the case then the "we have all been saved" mantra will temporarily push it down even further.

 

[Porper]

Interesting on ABC news as I woke up they said that gold had gone down on fears of a US recession.

Well just goes to show I have no insight to the fundamental reasons as to why Gold or curriencies go up or down, I would have thought Gold has gone up because of a imminent recession.Why would it go down because of this ?

I'll stick to short term using patterns I think.Leave the fundamental stuff to some of you guys.( That is not having a dig, as you say each to their own).

 

[refined silver]

Good question. My expected bottom is either $900-905 (in that case already in. Next strong support is $880-890, with very strong support from $850-875.

From 23rd March (page 187)

Still think this is the far more likely scenario than the $600 and $700 being mentioned.

Give a week or so of the usual machinations after a Fed decision, before Gold returns to trend.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I think this is good in a way, apart from my gold portfolio now taking a hit, but still ahead of pleb shares. A nice big wall of worry and doom & gloom for gold! Be patient, get set up for the entries and systems in place to take advantage of a once in a lifetime opportunity, soon! I have been naughty and have been selling down over the last few weeks - cash for the bottom feeding frenzy!

 

[josjes]

I have read somewhere before that Gold shares normally foretell the future movement POG. Well, today NCM, LGL, SBM etc move up > 5% from its morning low. I would wager POG will bounce tonight after the Fed announcement.
Probably most of the speculation regarding the rate cut and future rate cut stop has been priced in already. Comments?

 

[treefrog]

in $A terms, 62% retrace looks good

 

[sophieyan]

"The following link is to a US radio interview where an economist board
member of G.A.T.A. explains the reasons for the recent drop in the price of
gold/silver, why it is temporary, and the reasons it will continue to grow.

http://www.kereport.com/DailyRadio/Daily042408.mp3

G.A.T.A. (www.gata.org) is the "Gold Anti Trust Action committee", an
organisation who publish evidence to support their view that the bullion
banks have artificially supressed the price of gold since the late 80's to
around 2005 by selling and leasing bullion in order to keep gold low and
paper currencies relatively strong; and that they are no longer able to do
so because they no longer have the gold reserves to deal in. This means the
long term future for gold is great, but with big, temporary price
fluctuations.

 

[Jordanlee]

GATA went to Washington
Link:http://www.rapidtrends.com/blog/2008/04/21/gata-went-to-washington/
Posted by: Alex
21 Apr, 2008
As many of you know, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) just had a conference in Washington DC. For those of you who follow GATA’s work, you know that they have accumulated an overwhelming body of evidence that points to the ‘management’ of the gold price.

I have had mixed feelings over the likelihood of such a conspiracy, and until I can prove something or at least be able to use available evidence to form an educated opinion I tend to dis-believe such things. However, one thing I can say after attending the conference this weekend, is that there are some very suspicious interactions on the part of the Fed, the Treasury, and the IMF when dealing with GATA.

Specifically, GATA has requested through the Freedom of Information Act, information that supports the governments’ claims of the current physical gold reserve of the United States. One thing that I find very curious is that to date the Fed, and Treasury have failed to produce any materials in response to this request.

Now, maybe I am just being cynical here, but I think most folks who have any common sense would agree that if the government does not want the public to have transparency into an issue, it is usually because it is being naughty, and there is something that they don’t want the public to know. For the life of me I cant see why there would be anything to keep secret, even if it is a National Security issue, unless of course the gold isn’t there anymore, in which case it would very well indeed be a National Security issue. Now of course if the gold IS gone, then it just supports GATA’s assertion that it has been used to suppress the gold price for decades.


I will recap what I got from each speaker in brief:


Dr. Edwin Vieira Jr., The Foremost Authority in the United States on Constitutional Money –

Only a return to Gold and Silver can stabilize our currency.
Desperate people start to ask questions, and shortly thereafter that, assign blame. If our politicians want a long and successful career ( or life ) they should be aware of this.

Reginald Howe, Golden Sextant Advisors LLC –

Out of all commodities, gold is the one best suited for use as money
The ‘gold price’, should actually be termed ‘exchange rate’ as with all currencies
Central Banks are now lending gold at negative lease rates, effectively paying institutions to sell gold into the market
Since the day the gold window has been closed, the Supreme Court has refused to hear any case challenging the current monetary system

James Turk, Goldmoney –

The Chinese are indeed buying gold, using intermediaries and proxies to do so
Chinese Proverb: Wisdom begins by calling a thing its proper name. Gold is not an investment, it is money.
Do not put dollars into gold expecting a return, expect preservation of purchasing power. To get a return, it implies there must be a risk, and gold has held its purchasing power better than anything else in history.
We are looking at huge problems, possibly as soon as this summer.
Be prepared for Capital Controls in the US soon.

Peter George, Trinity Asset Management -

Many hedge funds are having liquidity issues right now, when they see a bid, they are hitting it.
It will take 10 years to bring new ultra-deep mining operations at 5000meters or deeper online.
Since 1994 virtually all commodities have gone vertical and pulled away from gold.
Goldfields has the largest un-hedged position in the WITS Basin, which holds an approximately 40,000 more tons of gold.
Anglogold Ashanti is hedged $7Billion
Barrick is hedged $9Billion
Oil will go to $500 a barrel in time

Adrian Douglas, Market Force Analysis

Gold is the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

John Embry, Sprott Asset Management –

This is the best opportunity I have seen in 45 years in the investment business

In summary, by hearing views from almost every sector that touches the gold and silver markets such as mining, fund managers, analysts, attorneys, constitutional law experts, private bullion custodians, it appears obvious that there is indeed something fishy going on with the price of gold. The only players that affect the gold markets who didn’t have anything to say was the Fed, the Treasury, and the CFTC. How curious.


This is all fine and good of course, because I own gold and silver, so when this whole thing does come unglued and make the Enron scandal look like romper room on Paxil in comparison, some of us will be getting quite rich.

 

[explod]

Every evening this week at 6.15pm our time (the dead of the night 4.am US) approximately the $US has risen sharply only to fall back each 24 hour period. The gold price is pushed down at the same time also to rise again gradually over the next 24 hours, albeit not as much.

The GATA data of course is well known to us gold bugs but the desperation now of the Fed and the US financial establishment to pretend thier way forward has become recklessly blatant.

I have felt all along that all will be done to suppress the gold price till the Presidential election at the end of the year. However the desperate efforts being made now to hold the load on the breaking truck lend me to think as you Uncle that a tumultuous uptick for gold may be closer than we think.

Have a friend in the US who has been buying and storing his physical offshore as there are real fears that the US will reinstate the Gold Confiscation Act in a last ditch effort to save thier currency.

We live in interesting time.

 

[Whiskers]

Oh dear, It's going further south... 855's.

Wish the USD/AUD would turn around a bit more first for the sake of our gold stocks.