Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[>Apocalypto<]

Silver,

Why don't u use your own skill to tell us were u think Gold is heading not your paid data service. I want to see u make a call based of your own mind.

Give us a number so we can poke fun at u if u miss it.

 

[Kauri]

For the techs, an interesting juncture for gold @ 850 - will it be self fulfilling?

This chart and others at
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6131_Charts_for_5-2-2008_Part_2.pdf

Just out of interest, what was this spruiker saying when Gold was pausing on $1030.. did he allow that it may retrace to the 50% @ $850, or is it only a Guru's predictive possibility now that it has happened??

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Just out of interest, what was this spruiker saying when Gold was pausing on $1030.. did he allow that it may retrace to the 50% @ $850, or is it only a Guru's predictive possibility now that it has happened??

Great point Kauri!

Easy to say it after the fact but dose that help all the poor bugger that bought in at $900 - $1000 while he was most likely telling them it's going to the moon.

What I can remember is Wavepicker, Nick Radge, Kauri my self were all warning about gold weakness for a while now. (check our posts) But hey we had no idea. Anyone can pick a number then cover their ass when it fails to happen.

I still think to many people in here base all there hopes on other peoples analysis with out really learning to have their own opinion based off what they think. I really think that is sad.

but each to their own.

 

[wavepicker]

Yep but I agree with both. I have learnt from reading economists that the US$ is eventually doomed because it is backed by debt and they have no productive GDP. Throughout history this dynamic has always transerred the value back to gold. Inflation adjusted gold has a long way up to go.

Hello James, do you have evidence to support such a statement re the USD and GDP? I challenge it in part, as myth for there is little correlation between GDP and the US Dollar. The "historical" evidence for R Silver is here in this chart. Mind you the chart and article was made 4 years ago, but I think it gives enough info for one to see if there is any historical correlation.

BTW, I would take what an economist says about market activities with a dose of salt, many have very poor track records. Unless their name is Martin Armostrong or Stephen Roach.


http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/05/02/US-Dollar-Death-By-Deficit.aspx

 

[refined silver]

Just out of interest, what was this spruiker saying when Gold was pausing on $1030.. did he allow that it may retrace to the 50% @ $850, or is it only a Guru's predictive possibility now that it has happened??

As for "spruiker", this guy sells no newsletters, no services, no anything. So he is "spruiking" nothing.

He was called "Mr Gold" by the WSJ in the 70s and then the only top he called was 887.50 which was exactly correct. He then publicly claimed gold was dead for at least 15 years and the WSJ ran an article saying "Gold bull takes of his horns".

He has said he will call no intermediate tops in this gold bull, because every newsletter writer and dog does it continually. He does advise using simple TA, and selling a third into strength and rebuying on weakness. For the investors, who have been in since under $300s (including me), to drop from $1030 to $850 is part of normal market activity and will happen all the rest of the way up. It can be ignored for the investor, it can be traded for the aggressive investor, or trader. And yes at $996 he did say if you couldn't see the correction coming, its time to stop trading.

In 2001 he called $1650, and at every correction where every newsletter writer was calling for the end of the bull, or much deeper losses he was always the bullish and correct one. Show me other writers with similar records.

(There are a few who have called this from 2001, but many other supposed gold experts, have had their followers out for 70-80% of the gains
of this bull, as I've detailed in previous posts a few months ago)

 

[refined silver]

Silver,

Why don't u use your own skill to tell us were u think Gold is heading not your paid data service. I want to see u make a call based of your own mind.

Give us a number so we can poke fun at u if u miss it.

The only subscription I have is Gold Oz, to their cheapest option, which is just a list updated quarterly of every one of the 380 precious metals stocks on the ASX. It contains a paragraph or two thumbnail on every stock including shares issued, price, MC, projects, resources etc.

To trawl through that then gives info for a list to further research, and buy the best. I've done the same with US and Canadian PM stocks, although without any subscriptions.

My target in early 2002 was $1650, and then later around $5,000 to $6000. Again not in a straight line, and to be traded if you wish, but only with a portion of your portfolio, as the greatest danger has been, and is, being out of the market when it heads up.

Oh, and energy, base metals and strategic resources are also in there.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

What is your call from here? (Sorry, you left yourself way open here )

850$ support was a area that is a support point mentioned by another member.

Silver,

Why don't u use your own skill to tell us were u think Gold is heading not your paid data service. I want to see u make a call based of your own mind.

Give us a number so we can poke fun at u if u miss it.

I still think to many people in here base all there hopes on other peoples analysis with out really learning to have their own opinion based off what they think. I really think that is sad.

but each to their own.

 

[treefrog]

For the techs, an interesting juncture for gold @ 850 - will it be self fulfilling?

This chart and others at
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6131_Charts_for_5-2-2008_Part_2.pdf

Unc.
there are quite a few "would be chartists" who don't know where to put their original fib points and therefore their retraces are sus. - this is the case with the thumbnail here - it takes the correct levels (red) but they don't suit the arguement being put (that we have a 50% retrace) so redraws them to an irrelevant point (blue) and wow! look at that a 50% retrace of something.

The run (leg) must be from the start of the run (and this needs to be obvious) to the end of the run ( and this also needs to be obvious)

but calling 850 and price action 845/855 means 850 (for mine)
but buy the same token need more than two bars at that level to meaningfully call "its held"

 

[Kauri]

What is your call from here? (Sorry, you left yourself way open here )

I've got a call
... it will trade at $1500... someday... when the uptrend resumes... until then... it may drop further.... or it may have started ..tentatively ..to be building a base..
.......See if I'm not right... soon...

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[wavepicker]

Unc.
there are quite a few "would be chartists" who don't know where to put their original fib points and therefore their retraces are sus. - this is the case with the thumbnail here - it takes the correct levels (red) but they don't suit the arguement being put (that we have a 50% retrace) so redraws them to an irrelevant point (blue) and wow! look at that a 50% retrace of something.

The run (leg) must be from the start of the run (and this needs to be obvious) to the end of the run ( and this also needs to be obvious)

but calling 850 and price action 845/855 means 850 (for mine)
but buy the same token need more than two bars at that level to meaningfully call "its held"

Totally agree with you there treefrog re the fibs

 

[>Apocalypto<]

What is your call from here? (Sorry, you left yourself way open here )

Left myself open, no not at all. My question has been answered and I will remember those price targets mentioned by R S.

As to my thoughts on where any market will go. I don't tell markets were to go any more, I listen and wait for the market to me what to do.

So like I just said what i write below is pure guessing based on what I can see on the current daily chart.

The sharp rise up was built on speculation and could not be sustained johnny come latelys finally got wind of the gold rally that began at the break of 700 last year they are now being sold out and we have fallen very quickly back down. Buyers made two attempts to halt the rise which failed and added to the speed of the decline. I based off what I can see I believe lower lows will be reached. I think we may see a small bounce of the current level which will be sold down again. I believe we are going back into the seven hundreds.

If the momentum continues to pick for the sellers then I think $690 is a target.

cheers

 

[Uncle Festivus]

So like I just said what i write below is pure guessing based on what I can see on the current daily chart.

If the momentum continues to pick for the sellers then I think $690 is a target.

cheers

I guess we need a chart to indicate how you arrived at these guesses?

My view is that gold is a momentum entity ie it has it's periods of advance then a period of retrace, with a big emphasis on the time proponent as much as anything else, time to clear the decks in readiness for the next leg. It's predictable in that the intractable issues facing the US & the $US have not been adequately adressed, and in fact may have gotten worse.

I don't see the next leg up for gold happening until the bounce in equites and the $US has run it's course (Wavepicker???). Another possibility is that an interesting juncture is near in perhaps we could possibly have a rising DOW at the same time as a rising gold price, both fueled by spec liquidity (from the pump priming?), while the real economy stagnates? We live in interesting times.

 

[wavepicker]

I guess we need a chart to indicate how you arrived at these guesses?

I am sure Apocalyto will be forth coming UF. What is your view on Gold? I would be most interested along with the reasons/justifications why?

I am interested because you had a view that the USD would continue to collapse and at present I and other see otherwise( i.e. a multi year pause/rally) before continuing the secular bear trend.

Cheers

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I am sure Apocalyto will be forth coming UF. What is your view on Gold? I would be most interested along with the reasons/justifications why?

I am interested because you had a view that the USD would continue to collapse and at present I and other see otherwise( i.e. a multi year pause/rally) before continuing the secular bear trend.

Cheers

Yo are too fast , see my previous edited post. Don't know about the multi year aspect, I give it a few weeks at most, or at least till data from the real economy starts filtering through, data that cannot be 'massaged' to be interpreted for anything other than for what it is.

I also see it as a purely 'technical' bounce as the underlying fundamentals continue to deteriorate.

I recall not so long ago that a low was being called because everything had already been 'priced in', but it has been proven that that was not the case, and I think there is further room for 'correction' in the not too distant future, and the commensurate collateral upside for gold, again.

 

[josjes]

This USD rally vs POG negative correlation is not always true.

Back in June 2005 - Dec 2005, POG AND USD climbed together and correlate positively.

Can anyone remember the background as to why this happened? What did the market look like at the time ? And is it then reasonable to expect the same could happen this time around?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&st=2005-01-01&en=2005-12-31&id=p23622217122

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I guess we need a chart to indicate how you arrived at these guesses?

My view is that gold is a momentum entity ie it has it's periods of advance then a period of retrace, with a big emphasis on the time proponent as much as anything else, time to clear the decks in readiness for the next leg. It's predictable in that the intractable issues facing the US & the $US have not been adequately adressed, and in fact may have gotten worse.

I don't see the next leg up for gold happening until the bounce in equites and the $US has run it's course (Wavepicker???). Another possibility is that an interesting juncture is near in perhaps we could possibly have a rising DOW at the same time as a rising gold price, both fueled by spec liquidity (from the pump priming?), while the real economy stagnates? We live in interesting times.

Here is the chart UF. I gathered since u trade Gold u would have been failure with the current daily chart.

I see no prices in your thoughts. your post reminds me of a guru report. u give some idea but no price to be held to.

So where in price terms will Gold go to UF?

Cheers

 

[Uncle Festivus]

here is the chart UF,

I see no prices in your thoughts. your post reminds me of a guru report. u give some idea but no price to be held to.

so where in price terms will Gold go to UF?

Cheers

Yes, it's a chart of the price of gold alright, but I still can't see how you derived your analysis.

No I'm not a guru, but thanks for the compliment

Point of reference for history buffs of this thread = Aug 07. $US dollar index = approx 80, gold = approx $680 - draw your own conclusions from predictions at the time?

A comparison of gold to other 'stuff' - draw your own conclusions?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Yes, it's a chart of the price of gold alright, but I still can't see how you derived your analysis.

No I'm not a guru, but thanks for the compliment

Point of reference for history buffs of this thread = Aug 07. $US dollar index = approx 80, gold = approx $680 - draw your own conclusions from predictions at the time?

A comparison of gold to other 'stuff' - draw your own conclusions?

i posted $690 as a low u post $680 so why do I need to post a chart? lol.

that was the exact chart i used to determine my price. UF use your eye's and your mind!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

i posted $690 as a low u post $680 so why do I need to post a chart? lol.

that was the exact chart i used to determine my price. UF use your eye's and your mind!

No, I think you have misread my post - I'm not saying $680 at all, I was saying that was the price back in Aug 07 when some predictions were made; what has transpired is not exctly what was predicted.

Here is the chart UF. I gathered since u trade Gold u would have been failure with the current daily chart.

Huh?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

No, I think you have misread my post - I'm not saying $680 at all, I was saying that was the price back in Aug 07 when some predictions were made; what has transpired is not exctly what was predicted.



Huh?

my mistake.

you do trade spot gold right, with IG? i remember u posted u had a trade fixed by IG. So since u trade Gold and u look at and post charts, i gathered you would be familiar with the current gold charts.

So UF we all given our prices why don't you gives us your direction and a price target of where u think Gold is going next?