Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Kauri]

Every evening this week at 6.15pm our time (the dead of the night 4.am US) approximately the $US has risen sharply only to fall back each 24 hour period. The gold price is pushed down at the same time also to rise again gradually over the next 24 hours, albeit not as much.

The GATA data of course is well known to us gold bugs but the desperation now of the Fed and the US financial establishment to pretend thier way forward has become recklessly blatant.

I have felt all along that all will be done to suppress the gold price till the Presidential election at the end of the year. However the desperate efforts being made now to hold the load on the breaking truck lend me to think as you Uncle that a tumultuous uptick for gold may be closer than we think.

Have a friend in the US who has been buying and storing his physical offshore as there are real fears that the US will reinstate the Gold Confiscation Act in a last ditch effort to save thier currency.

We live in interesting time.

Something else to take into consideration?? I thunk.. Core CPE data showed that price pressures remain held in in the stumbling US with the index up only around 2.1% or so over the year . The subdued inflation may be seen to add fresh pressure on gold, a typical inflation hedge?? or maybe nott...


Cheers
............Kauri

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Idol ramblings - USD may have hit the top of it's channel (73), corresponding to gold touching 850 'support'. They may swing through a bit but maybe a reversal of momentum close for USD, oil & gold back towards historic ratio's? Funny how the smack down started right on the Nymex open??

 

[Kauri]

Idol ramblings - USD may have hit the top of it's channel (73), corresponding to gold touching 850 'support'. They may swing through a bit but maybe a reversal of momentum close for USD, oil & gold back towards historic ratio's? Funny how the smack down started right on the Nymex open??

A report from Sanford C. Bernstein this week says that money in commodity funds has now jumped 48% just this year alone, rising to $250 bln from $169 bln. This has helped fuel record gains in oil prices and firm commodities despite evidently slowing growth that will cut demand. A number of calls have emerged this week for the bubble to burst due to confirmation of the sharp speculative inflows into the market.... mmmmmmm.. CRB not looking too flash currently either??

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Uncle Festivus]

A report from Sanford C. Bernstein this week says that money in commodity funds has now jumped 48% just this year alone, rising to $250 bln from $169 bln. This has helped fuel record gains in oil prices and firm commodities despite evidently slowing growth that will cut demand. A number of calls have emerged this week for the bubble to burst due to confirmation of the sharp speculative inflows into the market.... mmmmmmm.. CRB not looking too flash currently either??

Cheers
...........Kauri

Well I don't know where it's all gone, it's certainly not propping up gold, although if 850 holds, and rebounds, then it is bullish again. If not, then......
I notice the ETF's are having to jetison substantial gold holdings, doesn't help at all!! Still, it's a currency so that will ultimatly be the dominant influence I presume?

 

[ShareIt]

Gold stocks are starting to show short term reversal signs, namely NCM, so I would say Gold will probably hit $840 (previous support) and rally up from there

 

[wavepicker]

Gold stocks are starting to show short term reversal signs, namely NCM, so I would say Gold will probably hit $840 (previous support) and rally up from there

I do think we will get a small rally, but it will be short lived.(perhaps a day or two at best) Cycles multiframe analysis shows all cycles pointed hard down here.

Prices need to reach a climax or an EXTREME away from a nominal trend. The only timeframe we have that situation is on the 1Hr Cycles(see attached). All higher timeframes are pointed down.

One can possibly say that the longer timeframes have not caught up yet if it rallies on the 1 Hr, but that is not the case. This is leading methodology i am working with here. There are no lagging indiactors being used.

I have posted analysis for these on the XJO on another thread, at it barely puts a foot wrong, very hard to dispute it as tool.

Cheers

 

[Trembling Hand]

A report from Sanford C. Bernstein this week says that money in commodity funds has now jumped 48% just this year alone, rising to $250 bln from $169 bln.

Well I don't know where it's all gone, it's certainly not propping up gold, although if 850 holds, and rebounds, then it is bullish again. If not, then......

ETF's aside commodities funds are not long only. Is it that the as the punters are jumping on the Bull wagon flooding the money managers with cash they are flipping the enthusiasm??

 

[ShareIt]

I do think we will get a small rally, but it will be short lived.(perhaps a day or two at best) Cycles multiframe analysis shows all cycles pointed hard down here.

Prices need to reach a climax or an EXTREME away from a nominal trend. The only timeframe we have that situation is on the 1Hr Cycles(see attached). All higher timeframes are pointed down.

One can possibly say that the longer timeframes have not caught up yet if it rallies on the 1 Hr, but that is not the case. This is leading methodology i am working with here. There are no lagging indiactors being used.

I have posted analysis for these on the XJO on another thread, at it barely puts a foot wrong, very hard to dispute it as tool.

Cheers

I always find that stocks lead the way before the actual commodity takes off... so we may not get the rally soon, but it looks very much on the horizon as judging by what gold stocks are doing

 

[barrett]

Wavepicker, that analysis you posted is excellent but I've been unable to find any references to that approach. Is it also known by another name?

I always find that stocks lead the way before the actual commodity takes off... so we may not get the rally soon, but it looks very much on the horizon as judging by what gold stocks are doing

These past two days the US gold stocks have outperformed $US gold (ie, little change in the indices after a hefty drop in gold)... and that maysupport the idea of a short term rally.. but medium term they still look pretty awful to me, with these big H&S formations in the major HUI and XAU indices confirming the breakdown in gold. These daily charts were made 2 days ago but no real change since..

Being always long the stocks, I can hardly bear to look at the HUI target of 320.. on the bright side, we are more than halfway to that rough target, and I will soon start accumulating the world's biggest silver producer CXC, recently trading at a 40% discount to last month's prices, apparently for no good reason other than a correction in the price of silver. If companies like this fall any further out of favour, sooner or later they may attract some interest from value investors (barring say, a halving of PM prices). CXC for instance is trading at a 2009 consensus earnings PE of 8!
cheers

 

[barrett]

Is anyone here familiar with the Elliott Wave analyst Alf Field?
I had not heard of Alf before, but apparently some gold timers hold him in high regard.. please let me know if you have an opinion of his work.

Based on his EW analysis Alf expects that we are now at the bottom of the market.
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1209648332.php

This seems a little premature, but then again what happens at every interim bottom in the gold market? 'We thought it would go down more!' lol well anyway I usually find that.

I don't have much information about Alf's track record but I did find his similar commentary from July 2007..
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1184079780.php

 

[treefrog]

yellow run 400 up, 200 down,
blue run 300 (roughly) up, so 150 down - ie to 910??

note this is Gold in $A which facotrs in fluctuations in the $A (obviously)

note also if the current weekly down candle ends this week as a down candle we have a weekly downtrend with plenty of momentum space left to run lower

are we there yet?

original and update attached

 

[wavepicker]

Wavepicker, that analysis you posted is excellent but I've been unable to find any references to that approach. Is it also known by another name?

Hello Barret,

Over the past four years I have poured my time into the study of Cycles Analysis. I have looked at the works of various cycles technicians some current and some old. From these works, and my own background( Noise and Vibration Engineering) I have fused together this approach that allows me to trade the market using multi timeframe cycles analysis with very good results. I am not finished developing this tool yet, I figure I need another year to do it in Amibroker or XL Analyzer. The current GFT paltform has certain limitations for forecasting in future timeframes.

To utilize this approach one needs to understand the mechanics behind it, and also there is a fair amount of numbercrunching to establish the correct cycles in play for the the respective timeframes.
I don't use this tool in isolation(although one could quite easily) but combine it with EW and fixed cycle analysis as well.

Send me a mail and I will go into more detail.

 

[josjes]

are we there yet?

original and update attached

Treefrog, what is the bottom half of the chart displaying ? How does it serve as a useful indicator to predict the trend ?

If one can predict the future using past historical behaviour (May-Oct 2006 correction, I would say we are close to the bottom now.

 

[josjes]

Is anyone here familiar with the Elliott Wave analyst Alf Field?
I had not heard of Alf before, but apparently some gold timers hold him in high regard.. please let me know if you have an opinion of his work.

Based on his EW analysis Alf expects that we are now at the bottom of the market.
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1209648332.php

This seems a little premature, but then again what happens at every interim bottom in the gold market? 'We thought it would go down more!' lol well anyway I usually find that.

I don't have much information about Alf's track record but I did find his similar commentary from July 2007..
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1184079780.php

I've been following Alf Field's work for the past 2 months. Been pouring through his past gold update since 2005 from kitco's commentary archives. I have to say he is quite good in predicting the trend, but so so in price movement. I find it interesting comparing Wavepicker and Alf Field EW interpretation of gold movement. This goes to show that TA is quite an art, it depends on your interpretation and nuance. The two interpretation gives 2 different prediction.

There is also this link that summarizes his past works on EW gold.
http://www.cycle-of-time.net/gold.htm

 

[Kauri]

April 1st...as the long-term fundementalists point out there is every reason for Gold to just keep on going one way... up... which, if you pick your timeframe, is almost guaranteed in any assett class,... however, in the present where I dwell, I see the possibility of the shiny metal heading down to the mid-low 800's, and am/have been positioned that way since Maxwells hammer.. with the psychological and tech level of 900 being the main stumbling block...
not a prediction, just a (now risk-free) tradable possibility..
Cheers
..........Kauri

Well we made it to the mid $850's, looked for on April fools day, hit on May day.. (now there is an omen..)... where to next,...I wonder.. ..

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[explod]

Having my periodic look at the long term gold chart and I allways find the changing picture gives one a comforting lead to what is really going on.

If we look back to 2001 we see clearly that after the first uptrend seesaw we see from about US$400 (we will call it the floor price) about June 05 a definate uptrend to a US$710 blowoff top in April/May 2006. Then a 50% correction takes place to about US$570 ending about Sept 06.

So from this next floor price of US$570 the next uptrend goes to US$1030 to the blowoff top. Now this next retracement is still underway and for it to pan out to another 50%down it needs to go to US$790. And yes we are well on the way.

A lot of pundits are starting to call the bottom at this level. However as I have repeated, gold is a threatening signal that paper money is not healthy. The political and financial establishments will resist that exposure for as long as they can hold out. We know that they will eventually fail but it is fair to say that we may have little satisfation till the US Fed election at the end of the year. IM very HO

 

[treefrog]

Treefrog, what is the bottom half of the chart displaying ? How does it serve as a useful indicator to predict the trend ?

If one can predict the future using past historical behaviour (May-Oct 2006 correction, I would say we are close to the bottom now.

hi jj

the bottom indicator is the Chande Momentum Oscillator - I find it often gives good early signals of, (now this is the way I use it, don't think there are many that do) momentum trendestablished (usually ahead of price) and an early break of momentum trend particularly in the overbought/sold zone, is an early warning of price reversal.

The trick to getting good signals from those indicators is to adjust the indicators so that they "tune in" to recent price and momentum action because the market "mood" is often changing and you need to adjust with it

You might get a better understanding from my posts on the SPI non gann thread where I have been posting the 1hr chart signals with 13LR and 13 Chande
combinations I like to use are 13/13; 26/26; and 52/52 but the 52 chande often gives poor momentum indications as it is "too averaged" if there is such a term

 

[>Apocalypto<]

see u later 850 support :microwave:rippergun

 

[barrett]

yes this should in theory bring in some real support for the US dollar: job losses in the non farm payroll data far, far less than expected. Not too much of a surprise given that yoy US tax receipts have been increasing for about the past 6 weeks. I'm thinking this could provide the 'meat in the sandwich' for gold's wave C and be the catalyst to work off the remaining bullish sentiment before the next upleg.. and yet, after a brief selloff on low volume, gold is moving up on very high volume as might be expected at a major turning point..?

 

[Whiskers]

see u later 850 support :microwave:rippergun

Well, that got it up off its ass, didn't it!