Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

Got me rethinking too... after all, although Rumours are frowned on here...I hear that the Niue Governments PPT is considering a mass dump of their leased Gold reserves as they want to decouple from the $US influence on their exports... so watch out below..
Slanty
..........Kurrie...

LOL, Nuie Government....A government looking after about 600 fisherman... There's more Nuieans playing rugby in Sydney than in Nuie. Maybe that's your point.

 

[Kauri]

LOL, Nuie Government....A government looking after about 600 fisherman... There's more Nuieans playing rugby in Sydney than in Nuie. Maybe that's your point.

Don't say you twernt warned... .. judging by the all conquering $US index the Niue Islanders are weighing in and uncoupling as we speak.... and what is this about 600 fishermen... have you not been hearing of thier greatest export??

Cheers
.............Pai Korrie

 

[Sean K]

Don't say you twernt warned... .. judging by the all conquering $US index the Niue Islanders are weighing in and uncoupling as we speak.... and what is this about 600 fishermen... have you not been hearing of thier greatest export??

Cheers
.............Pai Korrie

The only thing I saw there that they could export was rugby players. Great diving though, and whales visit. They grew some taro too I think...

 

[Kauri]

The only thing I saw there that they could export was rugby players. Great diving though, and whales visit. They grew some taro too I think...

Try Otara... full of exports... aaahh the old watering hole .. the Flying Jug... such fond memories... no Guano...
Cheers
............Kestrel

 

[wavepicker]

Gold and the AUDUSD look to be playing ball with my thoughts from a week ago when these charts were posted:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=284834&postcount=4035


For now anyway. From past experience, moves away from an ED (in the case of the AUDUSD) can be quite fast. I believe is the case now.
Gold looks like it ain't gonna find any support soon IMO and this next leg down will be very hard and longer in length than the last leg down.

Let's see what happens but I am short these 2 from a few days ago. Fingers crossed!!

I don't wish to upset the bulls, I am a short term swing trader and hold no bullish or bearish biases, so please understand my posts are not to there antagonize you but basically my own trading views based on objective pattern and cycles analysis at present.

Cheers

Wavepicker

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Gold and the AUDUSD look to be playing ball with my thoughts from a week ago when these charts were posted:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=284834&postcount=4035


For now anyway. From past experience, moves away from an ED (in the case of the AUDUSD) can be quite fast. I believe is the case now.
Gold looks like it ain't gonna find any support soon IMO and this next leg down will be very hard and longer in length than the last leg down.

Let's see what happens but I am short these 2 from a few days ago. Fingers crossed!!

I don't wish to upset the bulls, I am a short term swing trader and hold no bullish or bearish biases, so please understand my posts are not to there antagonize you but basically my own trading views based on objective pattern and cycles analysis at present.

Cheers

Wavepicker

Great Post WP,

I allso follow the school of unbiased trading if it's a long buy if it's a short i sell. i really could not care less what the world is doing or what state of the economy is. all i know is charts economies move in cycles and waves. going down is as normal as going up. Chart tells me trade, i trade it either works or it doesn't, my MM keeps me in the game.

Good Trading

 

[Temjin]

It's getting closer now. USD $872.10 is the next support for Fib to retrace back to 0% or rather the last low.

Then if that is breached, we have the psychological $850 level, which also concidentially is the next low on the 22 Jan 2008, the high on 7 Nov 2007 and near the 200 EMA level.

If those are breached, then we still have the weekly 50 EMA level probably at USD $830ish. If that is breached too, then all hell break loose.

And yes, similarly, I am going to follow more closely to the technicals. Fundamentally, it still must be in a bull market unless the "boys" are serious about their intervention and manipulations. Or unless deflations occur much faster than expected liquidity can be pumped into the system.

 

[wavepicker]

Great Post WP,

I allso follow the school of unbiased trading if it's a long buy if it's a short i sell. i really could not care less what the world is doing or what state of the economy is. all i know is charts economies move in cycles and waves. going down is as normal as going up. Chart tells me trade, i trade it either works or it doesn't, my MM keeps me in the game.

Good Trading

Thanks Joseph,

and that is the way you have to be. I couldn't care less about the state of the economy either, I only care about what possibilities/probabilities are available to me from the chart, either long or short.

Chris Tate was often quoted as saying, the only economy you should worry about in this business is "your economy" and that "greed is good". Look after number 1.

Go with the flow. May the Wave guide your trade!!

Cheers

 

[explod]

Well worth checking this out, follow the link for the full article, but the message, keep holding and accumulating gold:-


By Roger Wiegand
Apr 24 2008 1:28PM

www.webeatthestreet.com



"If you think markets are free and unfettered I've got a creaky, massive bridge for sale in Michigan illustrating an accurate measure of our current dependability in liberty, freedom and free enterprise. To summarize-there isn’t any."- Traderrog

 

[Uncle Festivus]

A good listen and some straight talk from Jim Sinclair - $1650 gold?

http://www.radio.goldseek.com/sinclairpage.php

A synopsis of the short term negative forces affecting gold appears to be relatively simple?

• Spec long liquidation
• Spec shorting
• Liquidity rotation into 'normal' equities (now that the crisis is finished)
• $US short covering
• Euro overbought?
• Gold ETF's promoting a negative feedback selling cycle
• sentiment & momentum cavitation

Positive long? term fundamentals -

• the $US crash - simple!
• US interest rates to zero?
• Bad news NOT factored in
• More financials write downs - if you can't sell something then it's worth a big fat zero; so they understate their losses to calm the markets
  
• Central banks increasing liquidity - where did M3 go & why? (a net increase even allowing for short term loans getting paid back etc, if we really do know the real facts or do the loans become grants??
• $US strength is technical ie a reaction move against the Euro?
• will the real LIBOR please stand up?
• stagflation
• sovereign funds waiting for a value entry point again, and exiting US dollar denominated positions with $US strength
• Runaway global debt -the de-coupling myth?
  
• A boost for the local gold price if the $AU takes a bath from a sustained commodity correction
• Etc, etc etc

This week could be make or break for the global financial system?

 

[refined silver]

Fundemental.... T/A... as I have read a few times now... look back through the posts and read the thread... see where the weight of results is leaning... or nott...

Smiling
.........Kauri

Hi Kauri,

I take it you imply TA has trumped FA. I don't think its an either/or proposition for many. Many FA investors use TA also, but the worst TA times, of the last 7 yrs, eg breakdown of l/t trendlines etc, have been the best entry points of the entire bull, meaning a fundamental analysis and conviction was needed to buy in then.

The straight FA investor has gained 100% of the gain since they entered the bull mkt. Thats pretty decent. (Just have to know when to get out, but I feel thats a way off yet)

The FA aggresive investor who has traded portions of their portfolio at or near interim tops and bought back in on corrections has done even better. Again, I think its more than comparable with any TA only results.

Cheers.

 

[wavepicker]

Hi Kauri,

I take it you imply TA has trumped FA. I don't think its an either/or proposition for many. Many FA investors use TA also, but the worst TA times, of the last 7 yrs, eg breakdown of l/t trendlines etc, have been the best entry points of the entire bull, meaning a fundamental analysis and conviction was needed to buy in then.

Cheers.

The last 7 years have been far from a normal in terms of rate of change of price. Most stocks have risen, and irrespective of what form of analysis you have been chosen to use, chances are your would have been profitable.

But how about since last October? How profitable have F/A investors been since then? Most are probably still holding their longs. Many have been decimated giving back large chunks of their profits.

You mentioned knowing when to get out. May I ask you as fundemental investor what your exit criteria is? Is it based on F/A or T/A or both.
Surely it would not be the break of a trendline, for you have mentioned in your previous statement that it's a poor strategy?

Since this is the "Where is Gold Heading " thread, I would very much be interested in your thoughts about the future(next 12 months) movements of Gold and you reasons, based on F/A or T/A or both why you think this will be the case.


We can then revisit this discussion in 12 months time


Cheers

 

[explod]

The last 7 years have been far from a normal in terms of rate of change of price. Most stocks have risen, and irrespective of what form of analysis you have been chosen to use, chances are your would have been profitable.

But how about since last October? How profitable have F/A investors been since then? Most are probably still holding their longs. Many have been decimated giving back large chunks of their profits.

You mentioned knowing when to get out. May I ask you as fundemental investor what your exit criteria is? Is it based on F/A or T/A or both.
Surely it would not be the break of a trendline, for you have mentioned in your previous statement that it's a poor strategy?

Since this is the "Where is Gold Heading " thread, I would very much be interested in your thoughts about the future(next 12 months) movements of Gold and you reasons, based on F/A or T/A or both why you think this will be the case.


We can then revisit this discussion in 12 months time


Cheers

As you well know Wavepicker, I am basically a fundamental but also use t/a as part of my methology. On fundamental grounds I have been out of the market most of the time since the obvious (to all discerning traders) changes from about October.

I believe the hair splitting on the two camps is irrelevant to the bigger picture of the gold price. The thread benefits from the input of all posters and making challenges is futile given the type of subject matter (gold). Gold as an alternative to fiat money at a time when the bona fides of money is coming into question makes its situation different to normal investment objects. And because of its relationship to fiat money it is political; a strenthening gold price indicates that economics have a problem.

At this time enormous political pressure, via the media is trying to talk gold down which is making it volatile. Since mid last year we have seen an explosive rise folowed by a large correction. This volatility has steadied a little in the last month but each week we see moves of $30 some days.

I have repeated this on several occasions over the last month and I will restate it, gold may fall futher or rise considerably in the next six months but the real upward movement will be held back till the US Presidential election late this year. From a t/a point I see that gold has now established fairly strong support at US$880 and would be surprised to see this level breached.

I am long physical gold and silver bullion for the long term and some selected Australian gold stocks who are about to come into production. At this time I trust nothing else, look at Caltex having problems because it cannot obtain sufficient supplies of oil.

Each to his own with respect.

 

[refined silver]

[=wavepicker;287643]The last 7 years have been far from a normal in terms of rate of change of price. Most stocks have risen, and irrespective of what form of analysis you have been chosen to use, chances are your would have been profitable.

Sorry, I was speaking only about PM and PM stocks, not the general market. PM stocks have outperformed the general mkt a few times over in this time frame.

But how about since last October? How profitable have F/A investors been since then? Most are probably still holding their longs. Many have been decimated giving back large chunks of their profits.

Down some, but compared to entry points, the drop from October is not great, still up multi-fold. Many small PM stocks hadn't really risen with the big move in gold from August.

You mentioned knowing when to get out. May I ask you as fundemental investor what your exit criteria is? Is it based on F/A or T/A or both. Surely it would not be the break of a trendline, for you have mentioned in your previous statement that it's a poor strategy?

When gold has become overvalued FA would say start looking for TA exit points, including trend line breaks. What is overvalued? Too many points to say here, but pointers include:

1. supply/demand situation going forward,
2. faith levels in paper assets including bonds,
3. inflation and inflationary expectations,
4. real interest rates,
5. direction of world's reserve currency,
6. rate of increase in the Money Supply, which is also determined by:
7. US budget deficits and trade deficits.
8. surpassing the inflation adjusted previous all time high (now over $2,300),
9. etc

Since this is the "Where is Gold Heading " thread, I would very much be interested in your thoughts about the future(next 12 months) movements of Gold and you reasons, based on F/A or T/A or both why you think this will be the case.

Obviously I think gold is heading up in the next 12 months. However Warren Buffet, the world's foremost value investor (and not really a gold fan!!) famously said he has no clue where markets will go within a 2 year time frame. He diversified out of the US$ and everyone bagged him cos for a year, the dollar was in a countertrend rally, but then it reversed and has more than proved him correct. In other words, if gold is held down, it only means it will rally harder later on. I would be very surprised is gold if not making higher highs, and higher lows by this time next year, as it has for every year since 2000.

 

[barrett]

back from the bush..getting a bit cold up in the mountains..
looks like the gold has been hanging around above a major support on the daily (shown in dotted brown), drawn from daily close on the may 06 peak through various recent daily closes. This should lend support to a retracement of the recent down impulse from 950.

Now 892. Preparing to trade a potential retracement from here to either 905 or 916 over the next 48hrs.

nb I am seeing the entire impulse in this chart as 1 of C, anyone else on the same page?

 

[wavepicker]

back from the bush..getting a bit cold up in the mountains..
looks like the gold has been hanging around above a major support on the daily (shown in dotted brown), drawn from daily close on the may 06 peak through various recent daily closes. This should lend support to a retracement of the recent down impulse from 950.

Now 892. Preparing to trade a potential retracement from here to either 905 or 916 over the next 48hrs.

nb I am seeing the entire impulse in this chart as 1 of C, anyone else on the same page?

Hello Barrett, I don't have a wave count at present as need to do by hand(Will try tonight). But it looks to me that Gold is getting ready for a big move down and I am holding onto my shorts. IMO this decline from the peak to where I expect it to fall 600-700, should be a mirror image foldback of the entire advance from the last major 1.5 year consolidation.

The same story for most of the majors traded against the greenback

Good Trading

 

[explod]

Yep the current downturn is a bit of a no brainer really. The quiet trading period as we speak, $US up and gold down. Jon Nadler of Kitco Gold, one of the largest retail gold dealers has a huge effect on market sentiment, has been talking it down big time over the last few weeks. I think this will be followed by a US Fed no rate cut, and the news that we are all saved. The political desperation is very intense now and the ECB, due to fundamentals, look like raising rates. So like the meeting of hot and cold air we are entering a rough time.

Anyone who can call the short term is brave indeed but the fear of the sheeple could see a fall. However the gold bull is well intact till a breach of $US700, which I doubt very much. But yes, be prepared to hang on to your nerves.

Seems to keep bouncing off that US$885 though and every time makes the support that much firmer

 

[Porper]

Hello Barrett, I don't have a wave count at present as need to do by hand(Will try tonight). But it looks to me that Gold is getting ready for a big move down and I am holding onto my shorts. IMO this decline from the peak to where I expect it to fall 600-700, should be a mirror image foldback of the entire advance from the last major 1.5 year consolidation.

The same story for most of the majors traded against the greenback

Good Trading

Evening Wavepicker,

Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.

I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.

As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.

We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.

 

[wavepicker]

Evening Wavepicker,

Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.

I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.

As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.

We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.

Hello Pete,

For me it's not a question really of being correct or proving the F/A people wrong and T/A right, but making some good coin out of potentially good trade setup from a nice pattern. Ofcourse it could also end up being a dud too and one must be cognizant of that and have an escape plan in place.

If it is a dud then we just move onto the the next potential pattern, but as you say it's always nice to try and stack the cards in ones favour with as much confluence as possible.

Cheers

 

[explod]

Evening Wavepicker,

Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.

I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.

As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.

We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.

What has correctness between methods got to do with this thread. Do you enjoy trying to pick one side up against the other.

Most of the posters here put forward their best views or take on where the gold price is heading.

With t/a and f/a there are infinate variables of time, motion and volume, that I would defy anyone to be able to distinguish who is right or wrong or who wins.

Surely we are adult investors working at a very serious business.