GDN - Golden State Resources
- Thread starter chris1983
- Start date
MichaelD said:
Hi MD.
Apart from your thoughts above, which always seem spot on (IMO), what weighting do you put on the XJO down 80pts along with the XSO, as most of my screen was RED.
IF the mining, small caps & all ords were bullish, I think the outcome would have been completely different, with buyers climbing over each other to get a slice of the pie.
This to me seems to have had a compounding factor, hence the much lower close.
Cheers
SevenFX
I would say 3 bucks in a years time is very possible. That would be a good profit. Thats about the time period im looking to be holding for unless I see something go majorly wrong with their well..then I will assess into the future if I should hold longer
chris1983 said:
Depends what they hit. I know for fact that the gas is good quality not much capital cost. Also close to a pipeline should be 3-4 months from production. I think anything above 1bmcf will get this share above $5 in very short period of time.
hmm true.
I was just thinking they would have to drill more wells..etc etc. Going to cost them money. Once they get this well up and confirmed..the potential for them to be huge is there. It will mean they have great grounds. Thats allready confirmed in my mind. Other investors want it all up and running 100% confirmed before they put their money into the stock though. They look very healthy though..and i think its just a matter of time.
I was just thinking they would have to drill more wells..etc etc. Going to cost them money. Once they get this well up and confirmed..the potential for them to be huge is there. It will mean they have great grounds. Thats allready confirmed in my mind. Other investors want it all up and running 100% confirmed before they put their money into the stock though. They look very healthy though..and i think its just a matter of time.
nizar said:
Hmm yeah. I know what your getting at. Maybe he invests in safer stocks though? I go into high spec plays which I think are going to come good. The market in the end will always place the end value on a stock. I like to think with my research the market will see what I and others also see.
I thought you invest on fundamentals Nizar? Or do you mix the two? charting and fundamentals?
GDN is an assurity in my mind. Thats only in my mind...many things can go wrong which can change my mind! but atm I really like them but I could be wrong. Im going with my gut though and also off the results they have announced thus far. ERN is another high spec play that im in atm..I really like them. the market will come around to their potential eventually. Just like they will realise the potential GDN have within the next few weeks.
chris1983 said:
Im starting to mix the two.
Oh You mean "safer" stocks like AMP and TLS?
chris1983 said:
And how about if you are wrong? What will you do?
Will you cut your losses quickly?
Or keep holding it until it turns upwards so u can be right?
After all - u did hard research - it must be right! It has to go up!
Its human tendancy to want to be right.
MichaelD said:
Im not sure there are to many sweating it out at the minute, i think that people are starting to believe in this stock and the last ann has done wonders for its credibility. Certainly shortage of stock at the end of the day and the sellers side ahead is certainly not as congested as yesterday.
Certainly looks like a runner at the minute im tipping a stronger day ahead. Certainly had some fun at the end there still holding 33k @ 78 and 8k @ 78.5 .
nizar said:
Hey Nizar..Im confident on being right. 6 months should let us know. Just research into the area and how many successful wells have been drilled in the area. You never know though. I also admit I could be well wrong. I will get out of this one if something goes wrong with the well or from their announcements they change their tone to be more negative..I dont just stay in stocks that arent going to move.
You have to realise one thing..if this well is a gusher..which it looks to be heading that way..can you imagine what the area will be worth. They wont stop with one well.
chris1983 said:
Did you know a fund manager with 30 years experience quit in the dot com boom because he was "sick of being wrong"?
I read it in fortune some time ago.
chris1983 said:
How about if the share price just goes down regardless of what happens?
eg. they find heaps of gas and commercial wells yet the share price goes down? what will u do then?
Keep holding because its "meant" to go up?
Isnt it the share price which will determine your profitability NOT whether or not the company is in production or has earnings or wateva?
Many people say: "Oh but when the company is earning money of course the share price will be in the dollars!"
Iv seen weirder things. Remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (officially my favourite quote).
Iv seen companies release heaps of good news yet the share price does nothing. Then iv seen share prices jump for no apparent reason. Who cares what the cause of the announcement is. Even if u find the cause, it has NO predictive ability to determine what will happen to another stock if the same news is released.
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nizar said:
That's the nature of the game i guess. I don't hold these but will be watching to see how they go. Personally I think GDN managment are wankers.
nizar said:
In the case of GDN that's exactly what I would be doing -- because they'd be paying 0.50 divvies in 18 months
FWIW: It would take ~30 years to get 1TCF of gas out of the ground (roughly -- based on lisbon field nearby). So NPV calculations would need to be applied to value in the ground, so we won't be seeing a $100 SP. However if they did expect 3TCF -- $40-$50 may not be unreasonable. Their capital costs are almost entirely that of drilling wells according to their announcements.
Personally I'm hoping for 440BCF -- their "expected" scenario. That should see a SP around $10.
nizar said:
Heres a good link to read
http://www.goldenstate.com.au/eldorado_dec05.pdf
Neville M wrote the article. He has had 30 years experience also..its worth a read is all I'm saying..he isnt a fund manager..but he does have some good experience.
"Neville M. Henry is an independent consultant and contributor
to World Energy magazine with more than 30 years of successful
exploration and production experience worldwide. He has held
positions with UNOCAL and Marathon, senior positions with Trend
Exploration (Adobe) and Anadarko and has been associated
with significant exploration discoveries in Southeast Asia,
Australia, North Africa, the North Atlantic as well as North and
South America. Mr. Henry has undertaken technical work on"
His overall ranking of Golden States prospects was
"Overall Ranking:
This prospect receives a total of 11 out of a possible score of 15.
She’s a big beauty, mate."
I would love to know how he would rate the prospect now. To answer all your questions Nizar..yes I will continue to hold even if they go down. I didnt sell when they went to the low 40's because I believed nothing was negative. I still think everything is positive so I'll just hold and wait it out untill they go up. Hopefully
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Its human nature to find anything positive about a belief you have.
When that belief needs re enforcing the more vehement the search.
I see it particulary with Friends who are/have been Cancer patients who have chosen the Natural therapy route.
Of those who have been diagnosed terminal 2 of 8 are still alive today.
Similar happens to those holding losing positions or marginally profitable.
If you werent concerned about it you wouldnt keep finding positive news to re enforce your veiw.
While there is nothing wrong with taking a long term view or position,I question doing so whilst there is no production.
There will be time enough to get on board when it is clear that buying strength is making new highs consistantly.
Most price action over the last week has been between 65 and 82c.
Anything significantly below or above this (Sustained) will show a definate sign in change of sentiment = or -.
When that belief needs re enforcing the more vehement the search.
I see it particulary with Friends who are/have been Cancer patients who have chosen the Natural therapy route.
Of those who have been diagnosed terminal 2 of 8 are still alive today.
Similar happens to those holding losing positions or marginally profitable.
If you werent concerned about it you wouldnt keep finding positive news to re enforce your veiw.
While there is nothing wrong with taking a long term view or position,I question doing so whilst there is no production.
There will be time enough to get on board when it is clear that buying strength is making new highs consistantly.
Most price action over the last week has been between 65 and 82c.
Anything significantly below or above this (Sustained) will show a definate sign in change of sentiment = or -.
tech/a said:
Lol I am slightly concerned because nothing is an assurity..but trust me my concerns arent that great. The small doubts that I had have been deminishing with every message that has been released..plus my research into the surrounding areas. I like to think I keep a cool head when it comes to trading stocks...i dont get phased much..i like backing up my viewpoint and hopefully open some other views from other investors aswell. I was actually looking to buy more this morning but my money hasnt been transferred into my account yet..so I feel pretty confident with them. Even if I lose money..that is the name of the game and you move on. Fortunately for me in my young trading life there hasn't been much of that but I'm sure I'll also experience some failures.
I'll continue to find facts on all my stocks whether it be BMN/ERN/INL/SMO/AOE/ and I'll continue to write on them..it gives me something to do and keeps me interested
