Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

GDN - Golden State Resources

Just a waiting game really. I'm liking the movement over the past couple of days..i think its more investors than day traders. I think the day traders can sense something is up though so they might start jumping into this. When your day trading you usually dont like holding your positions over the weekend. Is that right? I dont think you would be buying towards the end of trading also? So if they hold up towards the end of trade..that is some good signs
 
Mr Right said:
I am not selling this share for less than $5. Monday is a big day!

Mr Right

Any theories on why the share price would be jumping up by so much??? I sure hope you are right though....
 
Binjal said:
Mr Right

Any theories on why the share price would be jumping up by so much??? I sure hope you are right though....

I can only guess its the logging results probably information is leaking out to the public before the release.
 
Guys,

Please be mindful of ASF's policy on ramping. Copied posts from other forums are subject to the same standards so please check they are OK before you post them.
 
Just going back to the earlier posts..I kind of get the feeling you havn't liked this one from the start doctor J...

doctorj said:
These are all very 'big' numbers, but please don't go taking a mortgage out on your house tomorrow. Really, they don't mean anything or in my book atleast, not near enough to warrent a 520% increase in market cap.

Sure, finding an intersection of hydrocarbons helps you on the way to commerciality. Finding more than you hoped is even better. But 28 feet of gross pay isn't the next Prudhoe Bay. Running wireline logs means very little. Many many wells are logged, then plugged and abandoned. The data they gather can be valuable to add to their understanding of the geology.

Working out whether or not it is commercial is the next step. 28ft of gross pay doesn't necessarily make for a commercial well. Porosity, the size and type of the trap and ultimately the flow rate will decide whether or not its cased for production.

This is really irrational exhuberance. I hope its commercial and I hope its a major find for a company of this size, but this is gas exploration. Chances are weighted in favour of a lot of people losing a lot of money.

They're more than 12000 feet below ground. Down there its hot and there is lots of pressure. Drill strings break, things get stuck. Sometimes, particularly where there is lots of gas, it can be difficult stabilising the well bore. This is a long way off a sure thing, no matter how much you like to bold the impressive big sounding numbers.

Then there is the small fact of the amount of money that would be required to develop a field. Each drill will will cost a couple of mill. They might want to do a couple of step out wells. There's pipelines and other facilities to build etc etc etc. And this company has $5mill in the bank at the end of the last quarter. There will be a big whack of dillution IF this is assessed as commercial.

I'll quote the most important sections of the drilling reports and I would like to know how your opinion has changed on GDN now? There has been some very significant messages released by the company since you last posted.

Drilling Status Report – 20 November 2006

"Significant Oil Interval
Geophysical logging of the well was completed by Schlumberger Oilfield Services over the weekend. A 20 foot (6.1m) thick interval with oil within dolomite was detected from 9,411 to 9,431 feet. Porosity was assessed at 4%."

Drilling Status Report – 31 October 2006

"Significant gas discovery in Alkali Gulch zone of Paradox Formation

The well intersected a major pressured gas interval, from 12,549’ to 12,577’ in dolomitic sandstone at the top of the Alkali Gulch member. Gas (methane and ethane with trace propane) was present at levels of up to 2,300 units."

Drilling Status Report – 20 November 2006

"Significant gas interval located over 30’ in Pinkerton Trail Formation

A significant gas show, with levels up to 800 to 1,000 units, was intersected in the Pinkerton Trail over a 30 foot (9m) interval from 15,292’ to 15,322’ (4,661m - 4,670m). Background has since increased to 800 units. The production potential of the interval will be determined upon setting production casing and conducting flow tests at the completion of drilling."

I also remember questions were brought up in regards to the porosity for the well..but rosesny posted a link that was very informative. The Porosity of the Lisbon field is in comparison with GDN's well. Everything is looking good.

rosesny_1 said:
The average porosity of the Leadville Reservoir at Lisbon Field, Paradox Basin, Utah (largest leadville producing field in Paradox) is 5.5 percent and varies from 1 percent to 21 percent. http://geology.utah.gov/emp/leadville/pdf/doloposter1.pdf

There is a lot more Gas shows through out the entire well but I cant be bothered posting them all..theres too many. Id just like to say that the well is shaping up nicely. It will be very interesting once they are into Leadville..because there still hasnt been anything negative about this well yet. Also in regards to infrastructure..they are right near a Major gas pipeline..thats handy.

So once again after you assess everything..how do you feel about them now? The only thing left for GDN to do is confirm gas or oil in Leadville. I'm waiting it out. Im expecting good things..but if it isnt as good as what a lot a hoping for..they allready have a commercial well on their hands IMO.
 
Binjal said:
Mr Right

Any theories on why the share price would be jumping up by so much??? I sure hope you are right though....

This is what i think of GDN:

They will complete the drilling in the next week or so. So far they have aprox 100 million mcf which equates to $2.50 per share after capital and operating cost and taxes. They are preparing the well for production it will take up to four mounts to get it on line. Then they will start drilling the rest of the wells with 3 mounts for each well.

So the price of the share will be above $ 2.50 BY the completion of the well they have minimum 100 million already. some people are predicting 400 million mcf. which will probably get it above $7.00 a share.

I am thinking of selling after the completion of the well as it will drop nothing will be happening for 3 mounts at least.
 
Mr Right said:
This is what i think of GDN:

They will complete the drilling in the next week or so. So far they have aprox 100 million mcf which equates to $2.50 per share after capital and operating cost and taxes. They are preparing the well for production it will take up to four mounts to get it on line. Then they will start drilling the rest of the wells with 3 mounts for each well.

So the price of the share will be above $ 2.50 BY the completion of the well they have minimum 100 million already. some people are predicting 400 million mcf. which will probably get it above $7.00 a share.

I am thinking of selling after the completion of the well as it will drop nothing will be happening for 3 mounts at least.

Than ks Mr Right for your insights..this will help me decide when its time to get out
 
Mr Right said:
I am not selling this share for less than $5. Monday is a big day!
Was this last last monday or next monday.........im confused. Anyrate will be interesting to see if there is any mini rally ( again !) leading to the close.
 
You guys still buggerising around with this?

There are other stocks going nuts out there!!!
 
tech/a said:
You guys still buggerising around with this?

There are other stocks going nuts out there!!!

haha what hurts waiting 2 weeks? Thats why you have a diversified portfolio. Stocks travelling nicely Today are AOE/INL.

Stocks travelling niceley yesterday was AGM.

Stock travelling nicely in two weeks time will be BMN/GDN :)
 
chris1983 said:
haha what hurts waiting 2 weeks? Thats why you have a diversified portfolio. Stocks travelling nicely Today are AOE/INL.

Stocks travelling niceley yesterday was AGM.

Stock travelling nicely in two weeks time will be BMN/GDN :)

Chris,

I think tech means look at WMT, PEN, FML, MLS.
 
nizar said:
Chris,

I think tech means look at WMT, PEN, FML, MLS.


Yeah..ive actually held two of those stocks in the past..if you guys like jumping in and out of shares thats great. Not everyone likes doing that. The guys who jumped into mls in the morning are allready losing.
 
chris1983 said:
haha what hurts waiting 2 weeks? Thats why you have a diversified portfolio. Stocks travelling nicely Today are AOE/INL.

Stocks travelling niceley yesterday was AGM.

Stock travelling nicely in two weeks time will be BMN/GDN :)

The AGM is today will start in 20 minutes, 11.30 perth time.
 
I think MLS are looking great though...could very well run to 10. Not prepared to jump on though because I don't like trading...gives me too much stress

I jumped onto the GDN train mainly because I think its a major discovery and it wont take long to bring the gas on stream..so yeah. Just a waiting game now..like what..2 weeks max? I can wait.
 
constable said:
Was this last last monday or next monday.........im confused. Anyrate will be interesting to see if there is any mini rally ( again !) leading to the close.

Sorry i haven't kept you updated. The logging results were meant to be released last Monday. Casing will be finished by tomorrow and drilling will be on from next week. I still repeat there are a lot of people (close to the company putting big money in this share). I got the funny feeling this thing is really big definitely don,t wont to miss this one. Big day tomorrow as drilling about to start.
 
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