GDN - Golden State Resources

[nizar]

I would love to find a snippet that would help in my own profitability and (from here---this Fundamental forum) I,m yet to find one.
Every now and again someone will post a gem.Over the years I have found many. What I have found is a prolific number of traders struggling---and wont even admit it to themselves.

A sage snippet from Warren Buffet: "Invest in what you know."

Trading, as done by so many today, is a relatively new thing dependent upon the computer, discount brokerages etc. As such it has no long-term track record. Warren Buffet, the second richest man in the US after Bill Gates, made all his money investing in stocks as a fundamentalist. Trading may in the long run be profitable for a percentage of careful traders but many will hit the same wall that the momentum traders in the US hit in 2000 when the tech bubble burst. When you are doing the same thing that many many others are doing, watch out! In the long run it will prove to be a Ponze game or a game of musical chairs. The Market itself and the Market Makers are the ones playing the music; when the music finally stops, at the top of a trading frenzy, there will only be a few get-out quick chairs and lots of small traders unable to stack much of what's left of their trading capital on them.

Warren Buffet is quite a weird man. He lives as though he has very little money. Id rather have 10s of millions and live in it up (like Fiddy and those other gangstas) than have 50billion and live like him - But thats just me.

Until recently he didnt want to give his money to charity. He was interviewed and his response was along the lines that there were so many other "better" things to do with the money.

Tech this man needs that little piece of advice from you:

(13) Dont die Rich!---use it.

 

[tech/a]

Buffets passion isnt obviously money.

I love it when Fundies rabbit on about trading like Buffet.
Buffets not a trader and never has been.
He's a business builder,he recognises an opportunity in a company and buys a control in it.
To attempt to emulate this entrepeneur is fanciful.

 

[MichaelD]

Warren Buffet is quite a weird man. He lives as though he has very little money.

Indeed so. However, as Tech points it - Buffet's passion is NOT the money. You can say the same about a lot of the very best traders - they're not in it for the money, they're in it for the game (but the money comes as a consequence of playing the game well).

 

[chris1983]

Fair point Chris. If i recall correctly his target was 30-32c.
But thats okay. Maybe he was wrong there (or just early).

Thats what iv learnt in my short time trading. Do some research, but when the trade doesnt go your way, get our and protect your profits/capital. The market will let you know pretty quickly if your right or wrong. Bottom line is that you only make money when the share price goes up. Company prospects and earnings dont really mean much in terms of the big picture. Its VERY hard to predict what news will move the share price.

I'm glad Tech posted on PMH to tell you the truth. It made me read up heavily on them. Learnt a lot about Porphyry deposits. I still think what they have "could" be worth something..and they have other projects going for them but I decided to get out once I read further into it.

I still like GDN though. Nothing I have read or researched so far can be seen as anything negative yet. Im no oiler expert but they look alright in my mind. Otherwise I would of got out when they bounced back to above 80. Could be a bad mistake Monday will reveal more. Anymore delays and we can see them get hit hard on Monday. I really dont know why though. I think they allready have a commercial well...but initially they will get spanked..and very hardly spanked. Could be another chance for the tech-traders to make money. Im sure on the charting side of things a sharp fall could begin to trigger signals to buy..just as too much of a sharp rise is signs for a pullback. Does that make any sense Tech?

 

[tech/a]

Chris
The beauty of Trading Price action is that I dont have to know a thing about the stock.
I have no idea what GDN do or PHM. Dont care really. If I'm going to trade them it could be at a maximum of a week,often a day or two.
So its fundamentals really mean very little.

Selloffs take various shapes.

Generally the longer the selloff lasts and the further it pulls back and the further the retest is away from the initial high the longer the stock tends to drift sideways.This is GDN.
Trading over 87c (Sustained) would indicate indicate stronger interest---but I dont see this in the forseeable future.

PMH
On the other hand retested very quickly and sold of to a lesser degree.
This normally means the stock tends to stay held at higher pricing slowly being sold off as patience wanes. I still believe 30-33c is a low side target in the forseeable future. 49c would see renewed interest.

The difference with your method and mine would be that I would be out.
If it didnt show on breakout scan then Id never trade it again.
I dont like to guess if shortterm---its either moving in my direction---Ill allow some consolidation but

I will not allow procrastination.
(1) It costs a lot of money in giving back un realised profits.
(2) It costs a lot when trading without a stop.
(3) It costs a lot when you are fully capitalised in non productive stock and you see one of these fly while you watch!!


Just be careful that procrastination or Judgement doesnt turn a great trade into a bottom draw trade.It happens more often than traders admit---to themselves.

 

[constable]

Havent visited for a while.

You guys STILL waiting for the NEXT announcement and analysing to death anything that even sniffs of a company release.

Out of interest how many stocks are you guys in---- WAITING for the NEXT announcement?

Do you ever sell a stock when the Announcement is Crap or it just doesnt eventuate or do you just bottom draw it?

just read this tech/a,
why on earth would you contemplate selling this stock until they hit their primary target? To answer that you have to ask why did you by this stock? It has a bucket load of potential for starters. And the fact is we ARE waiting for the next big ann!
I did try to buy this as close to the completion of the well as i could but to activate your stop loss at this stage is downright stupid.
If it goes well the current price over last few weeks is going to be merely academic.
If it tanks then we lose but i know ive gone into this prepared take that loss as much as im prepared to ride out the last week of price fluctuations.
To me this is not an arguement about who's right between the fundies and the tech analists based on the current information available, because how could anybody possibly value an unreported resource. Gdn is a pure gamble win or lose (nobody will be afforded any different once the outcome is released) you either have the money and the gumtion for this or you dont.
And this IS the only stock in my portfolio that i have afforded this luxury and certainly not a reflection on my day to day trading stance.

 

[tech/a]

just read this tech/a,
why on earth would you contemplate selling this stock until they hit their primary target? To answer that you have to ask why did you by this stock?

If you dont answer to make as much profit from it as possible then its the wrong answer.

It has a bucket load of potential for starters. And the fact is we ARE waiting for the next big ann!

That potential has been bought and sold by those who understand short term trading once already and if the potential turns into profitable price action once more they will do it again.

I did try to buy this as close to the completion of the well as i could but to activate your stop loss at this stage is downright stupid.

By the look of it placing a stop in the first place was pretty stupid if you dont act on it.

If it goes well the current price over last few weeks is going to be merely academic.
If it tanks then we lose but i know ive gone into this prepared take that loss as much as im prepared to ride out the last week of price fluctuations.

IF a small word which has no place in trading fits in the same box as COULD, SHOULD, HOPEFULLY

To me this is not an arguement about who's right between the fundies and the tech analists based on the current information available,

Never was to me either,simply maximisation of profit/minimisation of Risk.

because how could anybody possibly value an unreported resource.

Pretty easily according to the chart--some think it was at one stage 300% more valuable than the time of breakout---now the market value it very differently---its being valued DAILY

Gdn is a pure gamble win or lose (nobody will be afforded any different once the outcome is released) you either have the money and the gumtion for this or you dont.

And herin lies the un proffesional attitude I regularly see. It doesnt have to be a gamble,its only the trader (some traders) who adopts this approach.
Gambling has no place in proffesional trading.

And this IS the only stock in my portfolio that i have afforded this luxury and certainly not a reflection on my day to day trading stance.

Excellent make it your last!!

 

[MichaelD]

why on earth would you contemplate selling this stock until they hit their primary target?

Simple. The price was going down.

To answer that you have to ask why did you by this stock?

Simple. The price and volume were going up.

If it goes well the current price over last few weeks is going to be merely academic.

I'll take this to mean that the price will dramatically race upwards. I don't have a crystal ball - how do you KNOW the price will go up? The price went up with positive announcements a while back, and then plummeted down with positive announcements soon thereafter. Why? What's to say that the market hasn't already factored in any more positive news? What happens if they don't find anything at their target? What happens if something goes wrong? Does anybody know?

Gdn is a pure gamble win or lose

No it isn't. Not if you're trading systematically. It's just another trade. Depending on one's system, pure price/volume trades like this basically have 4 outcomes;

1. A small loss (about 1/2 the trades taken).
2. A small profit (most of the rest).
3. A big profit (varies but about 1 in 8 - 10). Lately market conditions have been skewed towards this outcome but IMO these conditions have now rapidly evaporated for the time being.
4. A big loss (slippage, unable to exit - very rare).

The exact mix is dependent on the exit strategy with an intraday exit better than mine (i.e. Tech capitalizes on these moves significantly better than I do at the cost of having to engage the market intraday which I don't want to do at this time).

The nett result for both of us is that we make money consistently in the long run, and that's all that matters to us. Most people can't handle the frequent small losses inherent in this style of trading, but it's essential to limit the losses effectively.

GDN was an exceptional opportunity of the (3) variety. These whoppers don't come along very often. There have been a few lately, probably just enough to get a few novices hooked into short term trading thinking it's easy money before they are wiped out down the track, but I digress.

Having said all of the above, I'm not saying that holding GDN is either right or wrong. It's entirely possible that GDN will be a 10 bagger in the long run, and I for one will not begrudge all current holders their profits if that is what happens. It's also entirely possible that it will languish at its current price for a long, long time. This doesn't matter to me.

All I know is that for a brief flicker of time, GDN presented an extraordinary money making opportunity over a period of a few days and I was in a position to take advantage of it (and did). My profit's in the bank. GDN may never again present this sort of opportunity. Then again, it just might. I also know that sooner or later another stock will present much the same opportunity. Don't know where, don't know when, and that's one other key point I'll make about GDN - at the time of entry it literally was just another trade. I had no idea that it would pan out the way it did. Indeed, I almost talked myself out of it since the breakout was so strong and I'd just had three losses in a row - "it CAN'T possibly go much higher than this" was my self-talk...but I took the trade anyway and the rest is now history.

I never have any idea which of my trades will be winners or losers. That's just the way trading is. If GDN signals a buy again, I'll buy it again. If it doesn't, I'll have my money working for me elsewhere. If I do buy it again, I'll have no idea whether it will make me a profit or not this second time until the trade's done - doesn't matter so long as my overall trading comes out nett positive.

 

[constable]

The're great replies guys. Appreciate that it is principally wrong to continue holding gdn at 78.5cents, but that is why, (for me) it is a gamble to wait for the announcement! And with this mindset of staking it all on positive news there is no other strategy to the trade ! Call it a lack of discipline which im aware of but its ok to buy a box of chocolates once a year!

 

[tech/a]

Alter the mindset.

You've bought the box with the potential for chocolates or an empty box.
When you KNOW the box is full of chocolates then buy it!
Particularly if they're Scorched Almonds!!

 

[SevenFX]

In Suspension

The moment of Truth... Good Luck (for want of a better word) Guys.

EDIT: Well not quiet the moment more so Wednesday
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061120/pdf/3znjf42jj1rz6.pdf

 

[Mr Right]

There is a rumor GDN has hit a massive gas! Any one to confirm.

 

[constable]

There is a rumor GDN has hit a massive gas! Any one to confirm.

Gee whiz, and i thought this was the rumour all along!?

 

[chris1983]

ABN 39 063 074 635
Level 1 181 Roberts Road Subiaco Western Australia
Postal: PO Box 616 West Perth 6872 Australia Ph: +61 8 9486 4633 Fax: +61 8 9486 4634
Email: gsr@goldenstate.com.au
Drilling Status Report – 20 November 2006
• Paradox Basin #1 well is at 15,397 feet (4,692 m) in Pinkerton Trail
Formation
• Significant gas interval located over 30’ in Pinkerton Trail Formation
• The drilling rig is preparing to run a wireline survey and set casing prior
to drilling on to the Leadville Limestone objective Golden State Resources is pleased to announce progress on the Paradox Basin #1 well in Grand County, Utah.

Paradox Basin #1 is at 15,397 feet (4,692 m), in the Pinkerton Trail formation, a cyclicsequence of limestone and black shale (see table and graphic below).
A significant gas show, with levels up to 800 to 1,000 units, was intersected in the Pinkerton Trail over a 30 foot (9m) interval from 15,292’ to 15,322’ (4,661m - 4,670m). Background gas has since increased to 800 units. The production potential of the interval will be determined upon setting production casing and conducting flow tests at the completion of drilling.

The rig is preparing to run a wireline log survey to test the interval below 13,014’, which contains this and other gas shows. Following the survey the well will be cased to protect the gas shows below 9,743’, as a precaution given the large thickness of open hole salt formation and the potential for high gas pressures in the objective Leadville Limestone.

Following setting casing, the rig will drill on at 6 ½”, allowing the well to be progressed below
16,000’.
PARADOX BASIN #1 WELL TARGETS
Formation or
Zone
Geological Age Lithology Depth
(metres)
Depth
(feet)
Result
Upper Ismay Pennsylvanian Limestone 2,987 9,800 * Gas shows
Lower Ismay Pennsylvanian Limestone 3,050 10,006 Minor gas show
Desert Creek Pennsylvanian Limestone 3,126 10,256 Gas shows
Akah Pennsylvanian Limestone 3,209 10,528 * Gas shows
Barker Creek Pennsylvanian Limestone 3,358 11,016 * Gas show
Alkali Gulch Pennsylvanian Dolomite 3,705 12,154 * Major gas interval
Cane Creek Pennsylvanian Dolomite 3,979 13,053 * Gas shows
Pinkerton Trail Fm Pennsylvanian Limestone 4,621 15,160 * Major gas interval
Leadville Fm Mississippian Limestone 4,709 15,450
McCracken Devonian Sandstone 4,923 16,150
Lynch Dolomite Cambrian Dolomite 4,953 16,250
BOLD: Primary Targets
ITALICS: Minor Targets
* Potential Production
2
DEFINITIONS
Connection gas: Pressured formation gas introduced into the well during short periods of mud pump shutdown, such as when connecting additional drilling pipe.

Gas units: 10,000 units = 100% gas i.e. 3,000 units = 30% gas.
Initial 100% Ownership and Operator
Golden State holds an initial 100% interest in this well, and operatorship through its 100%-
owned US subsidiary, Golden Eagle Exploration LLC. Denver-based joint venture partner
Eclipse Exploration Inc has the right to back in with a 16.67% working interest after the
drilling of two wells by Golden State.
Richard Sciano
Executive Director
20 November 2006
1. ITT (.23) & ITTO (.08) exposed to Copper, Uranium, Gold, Lead-Zinc, Nickel, $3.5mil cash in bank, 21mil! shares on issue, Drilling has began on there Olympic Dam Style targets in SA for Copper, Uranium & Gold, first target .50+.
2. CYL (.27) Drilling underway 20 holes for Molybdenum.
3. VMS (.24) Exposed to Copper, uranium, Gold, Zinc etc.. 26mil shares, $5mil in bank, soon to drill on Olympic Dam Style Target in SA for copper.

 

[tarnor]

Thats a corker of an announcement, very much playtime.. preopen will have some large hitting on the buzzer


edit: very much so this makes it looks very commercial, plus its hotting up rigth where the big pay load is.. should go baliistic today,

 

[chris1983]

The story keeps getting better IMO.

 

[constable]

Alter the mindset.

You've bought the box with the potential for chocolates or an empty box.
When you KNOW the box is full of chocolates then buy it!
Particularly if they're Scorched Almonds!!

mmm yummy .... chocolates in the box now techa/a

 

[chris1983]

I honestly believe this is going to be a huge discovery. It looks pretty good allready!

Wait untill they get into Leadville.

 

[tarnor]

yeah i think this has got a long way to go now.. fully loaded expecting 1$+ by close

 

[bigdog]

Todays ANN stated "major gas interval" at 4,621 15,160

Pinkerton Trail Fm Pennsylvanian Limestone 4,621 15,160 * Major gas interval

Up 19.5 cents and hoping further upwards; why not?

Sounds VG