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ES around 4106.5 will be a nice long entry. Waiting.
Futures trading journal - GB
- Thread starter Gringotts Bank
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Gold looks like reaching 2047 tonight. No signs of weakness there yet.
Will buy ES somewhere between 4096 and 4106 hopefully.
Volume profile has a huge value gap at 4096. Close up.
Will buy ES somewhere between 4096 and 4106 hopefully.
Volume profile has a huge value gap at 4096. Close up.
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Gold and ES both starting to look toppy. Particularly gold.
In the past, whenever I've tried to time a short position, I'm way too early. Would be good to learn how to short effectively.
In the past, whenever I've tried to time a short position, I'm way too early. Would be good to learn how to short effectively.
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ES: looking for a long entry at 4160.5.
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Just missed.
Long at 4164.5. Target 4190.
edit: And she's off to the races!
Long at 4164.5. Target 4190.
edit: And she's off to the races!
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Long gold 2048. Target 2053.5.
edit: gold not doing what I want. Out at small loss. Try and get back in at 2041.3.
edit: gold not doing what I want. Out at small loss. Try and get back in at 2041.3.
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Exit ES just below break even. How annoying.
Suddenly it's very volatile.
Did not buy gold 2041.3.
Holding nothing.
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ES long 4167. Target 4177.
Gold has me completely confused right now. Fascinating.
edit: First win for the night, ES at target.
Gold has me completely confused right now. Fascinating.
edit: First win for the night, ES at target.
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Watch out at 4190. Going long way too risky now.
First short in ages. At 4188.
Close up of profile.
First short in ages. At 4188.
Close up of profile.
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Short target 4138.
edit: Covered my short early for a decent profit. Just spotted something that indicates we may go up for a double top tonight.
edit: Covered my short early for a decent profit. Just spotted something that indicates we may go up for a double top tonight.
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It's so perfect. The level I first wanted was 4160.5, which would have led to the exact top at 4190 (high flag target). It didn't happen, so I thought I'd misread it. But now we're back at that level (4160.5), and it will allow 4190, which also matches the FVG level from way back in Feb this year. The recent high was just short of 4190 (4189), so it never completed.
Long again at 4160.5. Hoping the double top plays out on the 1 min chart.
Long again at 4160.5. Hoping the double top plays out on the 1 min chart.
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Stopped out - will examine the trades tomorrow in more detail.
1 win, 1 loss, 2 break even. Time for a break.
1 win, 1 loss, 2 break even. Time for a break.
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Should have been a night to clean up, but I missed every opportunity because my ego took over.
1. A winning streak gave me a big head. Thought I had the game sewn up.
2. Overlooked a tiny detail which threw out my entire analysis. Very grateful for the stuff up, because it showed me something which I'd been doing consistently wrong all along, but didn't realize.
Markets are definitely not random. Whether turning points are chosen by the big players in advance or not, I can't tell, but it certainly seems that way. They can be predicted. Despite this, trading psychology trumps everything. I really believe that. If your mindset isn't right, you won't be able to find a system to trade in the first place. If your mindset isn't right, you will second guess yourself, exit early, jump at shadows and make a motza of it all, as I have done in the past.
Is anyone interested in trading psychology? Anyone at all? Or am I talking to myself here?
1. A winning streak gave me a big head. Thought I had the game sewn up.
2. Overlooked a tiny detail which threw out my entire analysis. Very grateful for the stuff up, because it showed me something which I'd been doing consistently wrong all along, but didn't realize.
Markets are definitely not random. Whether turning points are chosen by the big players in advance or not, I can't tell, but it certainly seems that way. They can be predicted. Despite this, trading psychology trumps everything. I really believe that. If your mindset isn't right, you won't be able to find a system to trade in the first place. If your mindset isn't right, you will second guess yourself, exit early, jump at shadows and make a motza of it all, as I have done in the past.
Is anyone interested in trading psychology? Anyone at all? Or am I talking to myself here?
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Amazing, the long target would have been spot on if I'd drawn my levels correctly (picked 4190 instead of 4189). Exited my short too early because I got a bit messed up with anxiety - that also was spot on at 4138. Should have made over 350 ticks in total, but actually managed to end the night slightly in the red. This all about trading psychology imo.
Peter, do you want to share your techniques for managing mindset?
I use a combination of things, but it's a hard slog. I'm aiming to have no anxiety at all, both in the pre- and in-trade periods. Whilst my anxiety isn't high, even a tiny amount can cause problems if it snowballs. The thing is, fast moving markets will not wait for us to regain composure - the reset to a neutral/positive mindset must be very quick.
I have tried meditation, energy psychology techniques, breathing therapies, emotion awareness. Techniques like this are not just for outside of market hours but live, in-trade. Real-time.
Peter, do you want to share your techniques for managing mindset?
I use a combination of things, but it's a hard slog. I'm aiming to have no anxiety at all, both in the pre- and in-trade periods. Whilst my anxiety isn't high, even a tiny amount can cause problems if it snowballs. The thing is, fast moving markets will not wait for us to regain composure - the reset to a neutral/positive mindset must be very quick.
I have tried meditation, energy psychology techniques, breathing therapies, emotion awareness. Techniques like this are not just for outside of market hours but live, in-trade. Real-time.
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Widely cited as the world's most sophisticated trading platform - the Bloomberg Terminal - is going to incorporate OpenAI's GPT. 
This is going to impact markets.
IIRC, it costs about $10k pcm for a subscription. Well out of reach for retail traders.
This is going to impact markets.
IIRC, it costs about $10k pcm for a subscription. Well out of reach for retail traders.
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Some basic stuff on volume profile if you haven't used it before.
Volume profiles can be traded in two main ways. Presented here using examples of a long set up.
1. Entering at a retrace to the fair value node, particularly the largest of these, aka the POC (point of control). These are price levels at which both buyers and sellers agree the price is fair (therefore they freely transact a lot of volume at this price). When price returns to a fair value from an overpriced level, one may enter thinking that the price has cooled off and may take off again. The time to use this is in a trending market, obviously.
[A subset of this method for LT investors would be to enter when the price retraces into a 'value zone' - same theory, just more of a broad zone for those who don't care about a tick here or there].
2. Entering at the value gap. When price moves aggresively upwards, a majority of trades are occuring at the offer. The price is deemed too low (unfairly low), and instos lift the offer aggresively. Little selling occurs at this price. As well, little volume occurs at these prices because it's moving rapidly upwards, sometimes even skipping over price points altogether. We can say this is a level where the banks initiate an upwards run. If the run has not exhausted itself in the interim, one can consider they will 'defend' this price on a retrace.
On forums, a lot of people talk about the first method. I think the second method is better because in a fair value set up, one of the two parties will find out they made a wrong prediction. If price moves up from a POC, a lot of shorters are now on the wrong side of the trade and may increase their selling pressure. With an FVG, this is not the case. FVGs make more sense to me.
Plotting the VP is best done by eyeballing where the run ups are. If you want to do it programmatically, I think it works well renewing with each zigzag swing. I don't see a lot of point plotting VPs with a renewal based upon regular periods like session or weekly.
Volume profiles can be traded in two main ways. Presented here using examples of a long set up.
1. Entering at a retrace to the fair value node, particularly the largest of these, aka the POC (point of control). These are price levels at which both buyers and sellers agree the price is fair (therefore they freely transact a lot of volume at this price). When price returns to a fair value from an overpriced level, one may enter thinking that the price has cooled off and may take off again. The time to use this is in a trending market, obviously.
[A subset of this method for LT investors would be to enter when the price retraces into a 'value zone' - same theory, just more of a broad zone for those who don't care about a tick here or there].
2. Entering at the value gap. When price moves aggresively upwards, a majority of trades are occuring at the offer. The price is deemed too low (unfairly low), and instos lift the offer aggresively. Little selling occurs at this price. As well, little volume occurs at these prices because it's moving rapidly upwards, sometimes even skipping over price points altogether. We can say this is a level where the banks initiate an upwards run. If the run has not exhausted itself in the interim, one can consider they will 'defend' this price on a retrace.
On forums, a lot of people talk about the first method. I think the second method is better because in a fair value set up, one of the two parties will find out they made a wrong prediction. If price moves up from a POC, a lot of shorters are now on the wrong side of the trade and may increase their selling pressure. With an FVG, this is not the case. FVGs make more sense to me.
Plotting the VP is best done by eyeballing where the run ups are. If you want to do it programmatically, I think it works well renewing with each zigzag swing. I don't see a lot of point plotting VPs with a renewal based upon regular periods like session or weekly.
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Garpal Gumnut
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@Gringotts Bank
I've been following Thich Nhat Hanh for some years, unfortunately he died a few years ago of old age. He was a Vietnamese Buddhist monk who cuts to the chase pretty quickly, or as quickly as a Buddhist monk can. It's the origin of mindfulness. He fled Vietnam as he was sick and tired of the persecution from both sides during the VN War back in the 1970's
This particular technique works for me. Practise it when not trading by using the enclosed Youtube vid and you will eventually get down to just breathing in and saying or thinking "Calm" and breathing out saying or thinking "Ease" to get rid of monkey mind, fear and anxiety in situations. It takes time to get it right. Just follow the instructions as he gives them and be patient with the gongs.
Practise when you are free of interruptions and have the 20 minutes free to do it properly. You don't have to close your eyes, as initially he is difficult to understand, so read the captions in between the long silences.
Say the words he states or the thoughts on the breathing, as he directs you to breathe in and out.
I've got it down to just Calm on the inbreath and Ease on the outbreath. Often just 6-12 complete breath cycles in situations of anxiety, or if I'm having problems getting to sleep works now.
The problem of anxiety when trading, even just being a long stock trader with few big bets in my Super on the ASX, and a smaller cigar money trader on NASDAQ and DOW, as I am, is stressful, and there is a whole industry out there as I'm sure you realise but I thought I'd share this simple time efficient and simple way of relaxing when in situations of high anxiety which has worked for me.
It does take some time to get it right. I'd suggest daily watch the Vid for 20 minutes each day, and see if it's helping after 2 weeks. If not maybe it's not for you. If it is keep on coming back to the Vid for a refresher at your own pace. Thich is never in a hurry wherever he is now !
I've been meditating for years and found this Vid to be pure Gold.
Here it is to give it a go if you think it may work for you.
gg
I've been following Thich Nhat Hanh for some years, unfortunately he died a few years ago of old age. He was a Vietnamese Buddhist monk who cuts to the chase pretty quickly, or as quickly as a Buddhist monk can. It's the origin of mindfulness. He fled Vietnam as he was sick and tired of the persecution from both sides during the VN War back in the 1970's
This particular technique works for me. Practise it when not trading by using the enclosed Youtube vid and you will eventually get down to just breathing in and saying or thinking "Calm" and breathing out saying or thinking "Ease" to get rid of monkey mind, fear and anxiety in situations. It takes time to get it right. Just follow the instructions as he gives them and be patient with the gongs.
Practise when you are free of interruptions and have the 20 minutes free to do it properly. You don't have to close your eyes, as initially he is difficult to understand, so read the captions in between the long silences.
Say the words he states or the thoughts on the breathing, as he directs you to breathe in and out.
I've got it down to just Calm on the inbreath and Ease on the outbreath. Often just 6-12 complete breath cycles in situations of anxiety, or if I'm having problems getting to sleep works now.
The problem of anxiety when trading, even just being a long stock trader with few big bets in my Super on the ASX, and a smaller cigar money trader on NASDAQ and DOW, as I am, is stressful, and there is a whole industry out there as I'm sure you realise but I thought I'd share this simple time efficient and simple way of relaxing when in situations of high anxiety which has worked for me.
It does take some time to get it right. I'd suggest daily watch the Vid for 20 minutes each day, and see if it's helping after 2 weeks. If not maybe it's not for you. If it is keep on coming back to the Vid for a refresher at your own pace. Thich is never in a hurry wherever he is now !
I've been meditating for years and found this Vid to be pure Gold.
Here it is to give it a go if you think it may work for you.
gg
Garpal Gumnut
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My browser says it cannot play that Vid I posted.
I'll try again.
Apologies.
Calm Ease
gg
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... "and all these things shall be added to you".
That's the key in trading, I think. To make it successful, there's something that must be sought before it, which is complete peace of mind. Then it's not just a pointless accumulation but instead achieves something useful.
That's the key in trading, I think. To make it successful, there's something that must be sought before it, which is complete peace of mind. Then it's not just a pointless accumulation but instead achieves something useful.
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