Futures trading journal - GB

[Gringotts Bank]

It's changed shape - curling up in a bullish approach with strong buying. Traget is at 4159.5.

 

[eskys]

It's changed shape - curling up in a bullish approach with strong buying. Traget is at 4159.5.


View attachment 155418

Has it kept its shape since you posted, GB? Has it curled up?

Reminds me of the retarded bitter melon

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Has it kept its shape since you posted, GB? Has it curled up?

Reminds me of the retarded bitter melon

Down a touch. I'm more interested in the approach to the trendline than the shape afterwards. Doesn't look like it's going to move till later.

 

[eskys]

Thank you, much appreciated

 

[eskys]

There's been one trendline breakout, but not supported by volume, so not a buy. It slows the downwards momentum only slightly. The trendlines continue to pile up as it cascades downwards. If it continues to cascade downwards, stopping volume will come in and create a V-bottom. So I'll watch for a volume spike and a lower wick crossing the lower Murray Math line. The math lines are just simple volatility bands like Bollingers, only better.

View attachment 155296

GB, excuse my ignorance. I thought you were referring to oil, but on looking at the numbers, I'm lost. What do the numbers on the far right column refer to? I don't understand how that translates into POO if that's what I thought.

 

[Roller_1]

GB, excuse my ignorance. I thought you were referring to oil, but on looking at the numbers, I'm lost. What do the numbers on the far right column refer to? I don't understand how that translates into POO if that's what I thought.

it's the ES

 

[Gringotts Bank]

GB, excuse my ignorance. I thought you were referring to oil, but on looking at the numbers, I'm lost. What do the numbers on the far right column refer to? I don't understand how that translates into POO if that's what I thought.

Yep that was ES 1 minute chart.

This is oil daily chart. Trendline target is 84.06 Big gap obviously - not sure what will happen in regards to that.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

If ES continues to fall, I'll add another contract at 4106.5, then sell at break even as it rises back up to 4119.45. If it doesn't rise back up, I'll take a loss).

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES looks like it's reloading for a final leg up.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

If ES continues to fall, I'll add another contract at 4106.5, then sell at break even as it rises back up to 4119.45. If it doesn't rise back up, I'll take a loss).

As above, added one at 4106.5, and looking to get out at breakeven of 4119.45. Fingers crossed.

 

[Roller_1]

As above, added one at 4106.5, and looking to get out at breakeven of 4119.45. Fingers crossed.

Why buy more if you’re getting out at BE? There is only two outcomes from that.
1. Larger loss than current
2. BE

Why not just either exit current position or if it’s moving in your favour continue to hold?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Why buy more if you’re getting out at BE? There is only two outcomes from that.
1. Larger loss than current
2. BE

Why not just either exit current position or if it’s moving in your favour continue to hold?

Initial buy was at 4133.5, and it fell rather than reaching my target. Without averaging down, I wouldn't have been able to get out at BE. The BE was at 4119.45. It peaked at that exact number.

Initially, BE = buyprice. If I average down, BE prices moves down. That's where I exited.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Waiting for 4102.75 to buy again.

 

[Roller_1]

Initial buy was at 4133.5, and it fell rather than reaching my target. Without averaging down, I wouldn't have been able to get out at BE. The BE was at 4119.45. It peaked at that exact number.

Initially, BE = buyprice. If I average down, BE prices moves down. That's where I exited.

I understand the logic but that trade would have a negative expectancy. My view might be flawed but wouldnt it be better to cut the inital position sooner.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I understand the logic but that trade would have a negative expectancy. My view might be flawed but wouldnt it be better to cut the inital position sooner.

I have tried to backtest on AB, but it's difficult. I don't use trendlines on their own though. I'm watching order flow primarily, and backtesting order flow requires using Sierrachart - too complex.

 

[Roller_1]

I have tried to backtest on AB, but it's difficult. I don't use trendlines on their own though. I'm watching order flow primarily, and backtesting order flow requires using Sierrachart - too complex.

for example if you are using a fixed 20 points stop (seems like yours is larger tho)

1. You enter and price goes straight to your stop = -20pts

2. But if you ignore this stop and it goes down -30pts and you decide to enter to average down. Even if you have a -5 point stop on the second contract all of a sudden your total loss will be double the first one. -35 on first contract and -5 o the second.

If the initial position is still valid and the setup structure is still valid than I could understand holding through breakeven to a target if you are not taking on too much risk but it does not seem right to me.

In saying that my discretionary trading is not very good at the moment

 

[eskys]

Yep that was ES 1 minute chart.

This is oil daily chart. Trendline target is 84.06 Big gap obviously - not sure what will happen in regards to that.

View attachment 155433

Don't like big gaps.....oil starting to look like a mirage.

I'm off now, have a great Easter, everyone.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

for example if you are using a fixed 20 points stop (seems like yours is larger tho)

1. You enter and price goes straight to your stop = -20pts

2. But if you ignore this stop and it goes down -30pts and you decide to enter to average down. Even if you have a -5 point stop on the second contract all of a sudden your total loss will be double the first one. -35 on first contract and -5 o the second.

If the initial position is still valid and the setup structure is still valid than I could understand holding through breakeven to a target if you are not taking on too much risk but it does not seem right to me.

In saying that my discretionary trading is not very good at the moment

My backtesting of averaging down tends to indicate it's not worth doing. I've tried it with a simple RSI system. So I don't take every trendline trade at the breakout point. The reason I did take it was that I was watching the order flow and the way it approached the trendline (described above). More often I will buy the first or second level below the breakout.

The value in using trendlines is that whilst one doesn't know which levels are going to work as targets or support, one of them definitely will. And these levels tend to be highly accurate. An example of this was picking the exact high last night 4119.45, allowing my failed trade to get me out at BE.

So there's discretion involved, and the discretionary element is in my reading of order flow.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

example, Gold - breakout is circled. Buying the second line down, and riding it up to the first line down. if it works out.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

example, Gold - breakout is circled. Buying the second line down, and riding it up to the first line down. if it works out.

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