Futures trading journal - GB

[Gringotts Bank]

I dreamt the market was going to crash last night. Not a coincidence - happens to lots of people. This is the power of the subconscious. It knows infinitely more than the conscious mind, and therfore knows how it's all going to play out. Accessing that subconscious information is another matter entirely, but a trader who can access and trade from this subconscious knowing is far better placed than the best systems trader. Soros could do it.

Aside from the occasional dream, I can't do it, but that's the aim. Sticking with my system for now. Anyone dreamt of market movements that proved correct?

 

[eskys]

GB, it wasn't obvious but the undercurrents were there........did a trade on SHV this morning, sold some cap notes, both gone backwards now.....too scared to buy in..........I've lost my nerve......what a shame

 

[Roller_1]

What are your thoughts on ES? I'm looking for potential support to come in around the shaded area and a bounce. But there is a lot of momentum heading down and so definitely not convinced. Need to see some chop come in on the way down or a flush into it

 

[Gringotts Bank]

What are your thoughts on ES? I'm looking for potential support to come in around the shaded area and a bounce. But there is a lot of momentum heading down and so definitely not convinced. Need to see some chop come in on the way down or a flush into it

View attachment 150699

Looks bad. 5 red days and narrowing volatility.

 

[Roller_1]

Looks bad. 5 red days and narrowing volatility.

narrowing vol? you seen the last hourly bar?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

narrowing vol? you seen the last hourly bar?

I meant on the daily.

 

[Roller_1]

What are your thoughts on ES? I'm looking for potential support to come in around the shaded area and a bounce. But there is a lot of momentum heading down and so definitely not convinced. Need to see some chop come in on the way down or a flush into it

View attachment 150699

Momentum slowed coming into it and a nice bounce. Was hoping for a retest to enter but none.

A few more levels marked up. probably won't be trading them though

 

[Gringotts Bank]

My best system - FDAX - is holding up ok in the downswing (blue line is buy-and-hold). But obviously potential for wipeout if there were too many more big losers like recently.

Profit (green) vs max in-trade drawdown (purple) was looking very healthy until recently. I suppose it's ok for it to look like this when the markets get wrecked (??).

 

[Roller_1]

Momentum slowed coming into it and a nice bounce. Was hoping for a retest to enter but none.

A few more levels marked up. probably won't be trading them though

View attachment 150713

Would've played out nicely

 

[Roller_1]

My best system - FDAX - is holding up ok in the downswing (blue line is buy-and-hold). But obviously potential for wipeout if there were too many more big losers like recently.

Profit (green) vs max in-trade drawdown (purple) was looking very healthy until recently. I suppose it's ok for it to look like this when the markets get wrecked (??).

View attachment 150718

what period did you test over? and over various market conditions?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

what period did you test over? and over various market conditions?

49 trades over about 1 month. The bulk of it is out-of-sample. On a small TF, they only give you so much data.

 

[Roller_1]

49 trades over about 1 month. The bulk of it is out-of-sample. On a small TF, they only give you so much data.

imo you need 100s of trades over lots of market conditions. After watching the nikkei yesterday i could never trade systematically on futures

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Interesting how FESX bottomed last night.

Equivolume bars and swing volumes shown. There were 4 successive falls in downswing volume: 257, 103, 34, 17. Followed by a steep angle of attack of the upswing highlighted just before 6am.

Also check the upswing of 4690 contracts just after 3am. Huge volume did not achieve a higher high. Big effort, no reward, so it continues lower.

 

[Modest]

The next stop for Santa’s billowing black smoke , bullet ridden sled is 3750ish on ES

 

[Roller_1]

The next stop for Santa’s billowing black smoke , bullet ridden sled is 3750ish on ES

Did you hold over this bounce going for a swing Mod or take some off of the retest of 3795ish area last night?

 

[Modest]

I covered the short once this morning bounce price got above 20th Dec low.

ES here now at 3855 R could dump from here to test that low

 

[Roller_1]

I covered the short once this morning bounce price got above 20th Dec low.

ES here now at 3855 R could dump from here to test that low

if it breaks here 3871 for a test?

 

[Modest]

if it breaks here 3871 for a test?

Yes!

 

[Roller_1]

if it breaks here 3871 for a test?

Anyone get a short off 3871? a nice 50 point drop off the initial touch!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Using ChatGPT to code a trading system. He calls it a "robust, profitable system" - clearly it's neither of these, but that's beside the point really.

What happens when ChatGPT is in its 100th iteration and it's mega-smart? Probably you'll pay a small fee to use it, but what happens when millions of people can ask it to create a highly profitable trading system from scratch? Because that's what we're looking at down the track.

"ChatGPT, write me a code for a trading system that has a 30%pa average return (in walk forward mode) over the last 5 yrs". It will return something like what Jim Simons spent decades creating. And it will do it in seconds.

"ChatGPT, send me an alert when the market has changed regime, and automatically switch to the corresponding trading system".

"ChatGPT, tell me when Soros is going to short the dollar, based upon everything you know about him and his method of speculation".

2023-24 will see some incredible breakthroughs in AI that will take us all by surprise.