Futures trading journal - GB

[Roller_1]

after the initial sharp drop.

I've noticed the same, it's easy to get chopped up when it keeps peaking into new highs. really need too see the intent that it wants to drop then be patien enough to wait for a pull back

 

[Modest]

Unlike the Nikkei where a level has to be crossed 17 times before it chooses a direction lol

Depends on TF

a weekly wicking down looks like one test on the weekly but on a 4hr or daily it’s wicked multiple times

 

[Roller_1]

Yes, good point. See the forest through the trees or whatever the saying is.

Long ES boys taking a punt to 3950ish

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Hey it's coming up to Christmas. So the oil companies will want to take advatntage of the period where people are driving more. CL to surge! What news story will they use to mask their intent? Something to do with Ukraine no doubt.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Santa is buying oil right now, by the looks of things. Look at him go.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Oh wait. Oil pumping... because of easing concerns about Chinese economy! Hahah!

Straight lined it up to the daily FVG.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

On the way up, key levels are hit and respected. On the way down, the price tends to avoid these same levels, both above and below. It's the avoidance that causes the contraction in volatility... I think.

So ES may need to go up a bit and grab some liquidity tonight, but if it does it will try to avoid 4000. Might get to say 3995 then start back down.

I used to get into shorts when momentum slowed and you could see the high volume absorption by sellers, but there's normally much lower risk entries 2 or 3 days later, after the initial sharp drop.

Back at 4000, which for me means the short position is potentially finished.

 

[Roller_1]

Current contract not there yet, rollover isn't until 16th?

 

[Roller_1]

are you looking at trading view continuous contract? i see that has changed/gapped

 

[Gringotts Bank]

are you looking at trading view continuous contract? i see that has changed/gapped

Yes I am. I'm a bit confused by it all. How can they be so different?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yes I am. I'm a bit confused by it all. How can they be so different?

Right now I can buy a CFD at 3971 on CMC. So....

sratching my head. I thought the rollover date was today?

[edit - it's Dec 16]....hmm

 

[Roller_1]

IB sym info below. idk honestly i get confused every 3 months

 

[Gringotts Bank]

IB sym info below. idk honestly i get confused every 3 months

View attachment 150278

I wonder why TV has done that before the rollover date?

@Modest do you know how it works?

ESZ2022 is at 3974
ESH2023 is at 4005

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Have pretty much finished tweaking the algo.

A good book for the psychology aspect of trading below. This is my main resource and daily practice at the moment. Aiming to be more advanced in this aspect before going live. Got some other refs if anyone interested.

The Untethered Soul - The Journey Beyond Yourself.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

On the way up, key levels are hit and respected. On the way down, the price tends to avoid these same levels, both above and below. It's the avoidance that causes the contraction in volatility... I think.

So ES may need to go up a bit and grab some liquidity tonight, but if it does it will try to avoid 4000. Might get to say 3995 then start back down.

I used to get into shorts when momentum slowed and you could see the high volume absorption by sellers, but there's normally much lower risk entries 2 or 3 days later, after the initial sharp drop.

So I actually had that right. Got confused by the roll over business.

Got to 3990, avoided the important 4000 level. Actually still bearish.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Looking at options for automation. I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but it doesn't hurt to start doing some investigating. It's the end goal, after all.

Seems like you can use buy/sell alerts from your TV code to create 'webhooks' that send orders to MT5. So I'd need a futs broker that offers MT5. There are other options for automation, but this seems the most easy to set up. Has anyone hee done this? What's your experience?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

+11.6% at the 3 week mark. I can't plot the equity curve bc I can't download my trades on demo. But it's a smooth line - that's the main thing.

I've broken the rules only a small number of times, and in a slight way. For me, that's good - actually a huge improvement. I put it down to the meditation. Just got to keep at it. There will be a point when I know I'm ready, but I can't estimate when that will be.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES appears strong, but unless it breaks 4000 (specifically, 4003!), I think a big red day is coming.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

CPI tonight, is that right? I'm thinking they might use that to move it down to 3913.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES appears strong, but unless it breaks 4000 (specifically, 4003!), I think a big red day is coming.

Kablamo! It took out 4003. So with my system (which may be wrong), going through 4003 means the bear phase is finished. So if the price drops with the CPI, I'll use it to buy.