Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[SirRumpole]

The situation on the markets is insane in my view.

Yes, it was over valued, but this is sheer panic.

There will be a period of reduced economic activity where governments have to take strict measures to restrict the virus, but IF they do then economic activity will gradually increase and markets will recover (although not I believe to the previous heights).

There needs to be assurance from governments that they are doing and will do whatever t takes to stop the spread of the virus. I'm not sure that Trump and co are doing this at the moment. Te medical experts have to take over the medical situation and the politicians should deal with the economic situation.

 

[sptrawler]

“The economic impacts of coronavirus will be made worse by the casualisation of the workforce and the decades-long freeze on Newstart and other welfare payments.“

That is probably why the cash injection will be spent quickly, it will be like Christmas, getting that amount of money in one hit.
It will be nice to see struggling people enjoying themselves for once.
The other thing is, the Government will get some figures back on the real cost, as opposed to the modelled cost, of giving welfare recipients money, as a lot will come back in gst and income tax from wages.

 

[qldfrog]

The second stimulus will be with inheritance

 

[Bill M]

Coronavirus vaccine: Canadian company claims to have found a cure and could do human tests in weeks

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/8652a2d98759d609cf8e73e07d7058fc

 

[qldfrog]

Inheritance:Gov debt free stimulus

 

[basilio]

The second stimulus will be with inheritance

Indeed. If I was (as I am now doing...) to write a different take on the possible fallout of the corona virus it would look like this

1) There will be a big increase in deaths of generally older and sicker people. While individually these are a tragedy in the longer run it will result in substantial lessening of pension/social security costs and health costs. This will take the pressure off many current pension funds (if they survive at all of course..)

2) The sharp increase in deaths of older people will fast forward intergenerational transfers of property and other assets. This could be a welcome boost to many families currently struggling to get into the housing market

3) The possibility of many properties coming onto the housing market could control increases in housing costs. (A deep recession can also do this...)

4) There will almost certainly be an increase in local manufacturing as industries re form and local companies look for a diversity of supply

5) Hopefully... after such a calamity we might learn some lessons about preparing for forseeable pandemics and do it better.

 

[Smurf1976]

Coronavirus vaccine: Canadian company claims to have found a cure and could do human tests in weeks

Whether or not they really have it sorted, this will trigger the bounce is my thinking.

Market falls extremely hard > a possible good news story > here comes the bounce.

Just my thoughts. I could of course be completely wrong.

 

[basilio]

Check out a preview of the latest Honest Government ad on the Corona Virus.
Audio only

HGA_Coronavirus_AUDIO_PREVIEW.mp3

 

[Smurf1976]

4) There will almost certainly be an increase in local manufacturing as industries re form and local companies look for a diversity of supply

There was already a bit of a move that way before the virus issue, nothing major but there was bit of that sort of thinking, and this will give it a massive push is my expectation.

It's not an anti-China thing as such but rather it's a pro-diversification thing.

 

[Humid]

That is probably why the cash injection will be spent quickly, it will be like Christmas, getting that amount of money in one hit.
It will be nice to see struggling people enjoying themselves for once.
The other thing is, the Government will get some figures back on the real cost, as opposed to the modelled cost, of giving welfare recipients money, as a lot will come back in gst and income tax from wages.

It seems to differ opinion in people depending on who implements it so it seems

 

[IFocus]

Is anyone looking at or seen an article as to whether there will be money supply liquidity problems? I saw the Fed were printing money yeaterday? You know GFC type issues?

No haven't seen any thing of this nature but would expect for it to arrive in a likely secondary shock where banking loses confidence with who might fail (bankruptcy) or the international money transfers etc.

If that happens then liquidity problems with come with it.

 

[Smurf1976]

No haven't seen any thing of this nature but would expect for it to arrive in a likely secondary shock where banking loses confidence with who might fail (bankruptcy) or the international money transfers etc.

I'd be surprised if there weren't a few effectively dead companies still trading at this point.

Airlines, shipping, hedge funds - there's quite a few things that could be basically dead just not announced.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

From Coles:

To continue to allow everyone the opportunity to purchase staple items, we will be implementing a couple of further changes throughout our stores:

1. From Saturday we will limit the purchase of pasta, flour, dry rice, paper towels, paper tissues and hand sanitisers to 2 items per customer. We will also be introducing some additional limits on certain items in each store. These can vary between stores, so please visit your local Coles for more information.

2. From today we will be temporarily suspending our change-of-mind refund policy to discourage over-purchasing. If you have already purchased additional items you no longer want, please look at donating them to community organisations or neighbours who have been struggling to purchase them during this time

 

[sptrawler]

It seems to differ opinion in people depending on who implements it so it seems

Not really, but i know what you are saying, it sounds hypocritical.
But IMO there are a lot of differences between now and 2007, it probably isn't worth debating them though, but this is serious $hit.
2007 was a hit to the U.S and Europe's banking system, which because we were a pimple on the ar$e of the World, our Banks weren't involved in.
This is going to shut our whole Country down at some stage, this has a long way to play out and even then IMO it wont be over.
We are going to be hit the same as every Country will be, there is no boom that is going to help us this time, the only saving grace IMO is we aren't densely populated even in our Cities.
Anyway, I know where you are coming from.

 

[Smurf1976]

This is going to shut our whole Country down at some stage, this has a long way to play out and even then IMO it wont be over.

Consider not this weekend but next.

Even assuming no further restrictions by government beyond those already announced, after this weekend we basically don't have any professional sports, concerts or other major events open to the public. If there's not to be gatherings of more than 500 people well then that rules all those out and even things like the larger nightclubs are on the wrong side of that. Not sure how many seats the bigger cinemas have?

We're in a situation that would have been unthinkable not too long ago and presumably it's only a matter of time until that "500" number becomes smaller and shuts down what's left.

 

[sptrawler]

Consider not this weekend but next.

Even assuming no further restrictions by government beyond those already announced, after this weekend we basically don't have any professional sports, concerts or other major events open to the public.

We're in a situation that would have been unthinkable not too long ago.

My guess and it is only a guess, is they may call a quarantine period over the Easter school holidays, as most people will have things in place to look after the kids during that period, that is unless the spread hasn't increased which I expect it will have.
I would think a lot will depend on how fast the infection rate grows, no point quarantining just to have it break out again after the quarantine period, too early will be just as bad as too late IMO.
Just my thoughts, no one knows how this will play out all speculation.

 

[Smurf1976]

My guess and it is only a guess, is they may call a quarantine period over the Easter school holidays, as most people will have things in place to look after the kids during that period, that is unless the spread hasn't increased which I expect it will have.

An interesting possibility yes.

On specific cancellations I see that the Melbourne International Comedy Festival has been outright cancelled and I see that in Tasmania Dark Mofo has been completely cancelled.

The latter is somewhat telling given it's not until June but presumably organisers just couldn't take the risk, either disease or financial, of going ahead. Intentionally getting people outside at night in the middle of winter probably crossed their mind as not a good idea too given the circumstances.

For the economic effects well I expect that the comedy festival alone would have broader implications. There'd be not only performers but no doubt there'd be people from interstate or country areas who'd visit Melbourne to see shows etc.

Same with Dark Mofo - it fills up basically every hotel in Hobart at a time of year when they'd otherwise be largely empty. Huge drawcard so there's going to be jobs lost etc with that too.

About the only economic thing I think can be said with any certainty is that we are now in recession. Not technically, need two consecutive quarters for that, but in practice there's no way economic activity won't be contracting with all this going on.

Edit: Just read that Sydney's Royal Easter Show is now cancelled too. Apparently normal attendance would be 800,000 over multiple days so that's another thing which would be a significant loss of income for people working there, suppliers, contractors etc.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Indeed. If I was (as I am now doing...) to write a different take on the possible fallout of the corona virus it would look like this

1) There will be a big increase in deaths of generally older and sicker people. While individually these are a tragedy in the longer run it will result in substantial lessening of pension/social security costs and health costs. This will take the pressure off many current pension funds (if they survive at all of course..)

2) The sharp increase in deaths of older people will fast forward intergenerational transfers of property and other assets. This could be a welcome boost to many families currently struggling to get into the housing market

3) The possibility of many properties coming onto the housing market could control increases in housing costs. (A deep recession can also do this...)

4) There will almost certainly be an increase in local manufacturing as industries re form and local companies look for a diversity of supply

5) Hopefully... after such a calamity we might learn some lessons about preparing for forseeable pandemics and do it better.

enduring Power of Attorney... can act on behalf of an infirm member, when still alive. Cash out super is the obvious one, avoid tax of 15% + 2% medicare on taxable amounts.

 

[Smurf1976]

enduring Power of Attorney... can act on behalf of an infirm member, when still alive.

Some practical advice here - make very sure you get this placed on record with banks and anywhere else the person in question has money whilst they are still alive and mentally capable.

Having the enduring PA alone won't avoid hiccups when you walk into a bank branch to move a substantial amount of money. Even though it's registered with government, if it's not on the bank's system then you'll face a lot of hurdles and the bank won't release funds without going through a process.

So go into the bank or other financial institution and make sure it has been registered on their system whilst the person it relates to is still alive and mentally capable. The bank will at a minimum call them to confirm - and they'll only call on a number that is already recorded by the bank, they won't accept any other phone number you give them so make sure that's sorted too.

Comment is from personal experience.

 

[MrChow]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dire-predictions-for-swine-flus-future/

Basically the same article as now just swap the name of viruses.

Reality was their prediction of number of deaths turned out to be expotentially overestimated.