Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

For Australia coming into winter its really bad news particularly combined with a normal flu season so measures will have to get aggressive to hold the peak down and getting through to our next summer.

A question I've struggled to find a proper answer to is about the effect of temperature and humidity.

Colds and flu are more common in Winter it seems so that does suggest cold weather makes it worse.

Where I'm going with that is to ponder whether we should be doing things like turning the heating up in shops and offices and so on? Would that sort of thing help in any way if we turn supermarkets, aged care homes and so on into somewhat tropical environments inside? Just wind the thermostat up to 30 degrees or whatever?

I say that from an "every bit helps" line of thinking wondering if it would help?

 

[CBerg]

@sptrawler maybe once this is all said and done, something worth spending a bit of money on would be mandatory preparation classes/events to help people prepare. Go over what you can do to prepare for epidemics, pandemics, natural disasters. Keeping itinerary of what you have in food, medical supplies, hygiene supplies etc.(in the theme of having infrastructure projects ready to go list)

As a nation that’s prone to natural disaster, we’re hopeless at being prepared on a national level. We can’t keep relying on governments to bail us out when things get tough.

We can’t predict what’s going to happen in the future but we can make sensible preparations.

 

[SirRumpole]

A question I've struggled to find a proper answer to is about the effect of temperature and humidity.

Colds and flu are more common in Winter it seems so that does suggest cold weather makes it worse.

Where I'm going with that is to ponder whether we should be doing things like turning the heating up in shops and offices and so on? Would that sort of thing help in any way if we turn supermarkets, aged care homes and so on into somewhat tropical environments inside? Just wind the thermostat up to 30 degrees or whatever?

I say that from an "every bit helps" line of thinking wondering if it would help?

I believe that in cold weather there is usually less humidity.

Humidity causes water droplets to attach to the viruses thus weighing them down meaning they fall to the ground and don't spread through the air as much.

So humidifying the air inside nursing homes, offices and schools would seem a good idea.

 

[SirRumpole]

NZ is now requiring all people entering the country self isolate for 14 days regardless of whether they have symptoms or not.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...land-travel-restrictions-coronavirus/12056754

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...ine-flu-pandemic-that-never-came-1974579.html

Yet predictions that the global death toll from swine flu could reach 7.5 million were well off the mark. At most, the virus killed 14,000 people, and some of those had pre-existing conditions or had been infected by other dangerous bugs as well. Against a background death toll from seasonal flu of up to 500,000, the new H1N1 strain was invisible.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/who-scientist-swine-flu-pandemic-was-completely-exaggerated/17292

“With SARS, with avian flu, always the predictions are wrong…Why don’t we learn from history?” Keil said. “It [swine flu] produced a lot of turmoil in the pubic and was completely exaggerated in contrast with all the really important matters we have to deal with in public health.”

@MrChow is living in a beautiful world
151,700-575,400 additional death
Cdc figures:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
Sorry i can not let these little lies go unchallenged otherwise as per global warming, people will believe them and we will end up closing coal stations, here hospitals for the wrong reasons.

 

[Smurf1976]

So humidifying the air inside nursing homes, offices and schools would seem a good idea.

If it helps then it should be done.

My thinking is that there's no conflict with other efforts, setting up humidifiers in aged care homes won't take resources away from hospitals etc, so if there's a benefit then do it.

If we can fix 5% of the problem here, 5% there, etc, then it all adds up.

 

[basilio]

Not saying referendum but after 2 weeks of shut down people will be getting antsy, let alone anything longer in duration.

Who’s delivering food and medications to the supermarkets/pharmacists which aren’t presumably closed? And who’s paying for people to stay home when businesses aren’t operating. Sick/personal/annual leave is premised on the fact the business is still operating.

Good luck keeping control if people aren’t fed, watered and paid.

Probably worth checking out the experience of the Chinese, Taiwanese and Singarpore governments which have effectively controlled the the spread of the virus with social isolation.
A mixture of muscle, social support, capacity to keep people fed and supplied and a very sophisticated monitoring system.

Not to say it has been easy and simple.
Has been done and can be done. China has also sent an advisory team to Italy to assist them in their lockdown
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/countries-contain-coronavirus-spread.html

https://www.voanews.com/science-hea...t-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report
https://www.womensweekly.com.sg/tag/coronavirus/

 

[basilio]

A question I've struggled to find a proper answer to is about the effect of temperature and humidity.

Colds and flu are more common in Winter it seems so that does suggest cold weather makes it worse.

Where I'm going with that is to ponder whether we should be doing things like turning the heating up in shops and offices and so on? Would that sort of thing help in any way if we turn supermarkets, aged care homes and so on into somewhat tropical environments inside? Just wind the thermostat up to 30 degrees or whatever?

I say that from an "every bit helps" line of thinking wondering if it would help?

Found a medical study. Interestingly enough it was in a commercial website..

https://www.condair.com.au/humidity...-humidity-on-coronavirus-survival-on-surfaces

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Found a medical study. Interestingly enough it was in a commercial website..

https://www.condair.com.au/humidity...-humidity-on-coronavirus-survival-on-surfaces

2010. .. you can reckon there'll be updated Covid-19 simulations.

As a personal observation, sthn Chinese (HK) definitely respond to low humidity air in the dry winter months with humidifiers, water in top of heaters, anything.

 

[basilio]

Myth Busters update from World Health Organisation on Corona Virus. Simple and clear.

Excellent article on how to survive as a family in isolation. Some interesting upsides there as well.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

The family lockdown guide: how to emotionally prepare for coronavirus quarantine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...motionally-prepare-for-coronavirus-quarantine

 

[basilio]

The AFL are trying to deal with the effects of the corona virus and risks of spreading the disease. The financial hit on the clubs is also a big concern.

This would echo many other organisations that would be trying to work out how to survive an uncertain period of financial limbo.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/385050/no-vfl-latest-developments-on-the-coronavirus-crisis

 

[MrChow]

I'm not betting on a flu being less deadly in flu season, makes no sense to me.

There's a 100x multiplier on regular flu deaths and 1918, 1957, 1968 pandemics all peaked in flu season too.

 

[SirRumpole]

I wonder with all the sport being cancelled and people working from home, will there be a spike in the birth rate in 9 months time ?

 

[basilio]

I don't think governments, businesses and people have yet to appreciate the economic challenges of negotiating a 70% drop of economic activity for anything from 2-4 months.

On a personal level we know that at least 50% of the population is about 2 paychecks from being on the streets. At a business level I can't imagine many businesses having the cash in the bank or willingness to fund an uncertain extended period of minimal sales.

This is, in my mind, a completely different and much more challenging situation than say a war declaration. In wartime the government makes the market . It directs people to the forces or into industry . Everyone has to work. Probably harder and dirtier but the issue of economic bankruptcy is not upfront.

I have already seen articles where big companies have seriously wondered at their capacity to survive . I suggest this will take a lot more than sugar hits for pensioners and some (decent) pocket money for keeping on apprentices.

Thoughts ?

 

[Knobby22]

I've already noticed more people living on the streets. My guess is that they used to house surf but they are no longer welcome due to the virus.

 

[Sharkman]

Probably worth checking out the experience of the Chinese, Taiwanese and Singarpore governments which have effectively controlled the the spread of the virus with social isolation.

worth checking out, but merely copying these countries may not work in Aust due to ideological differences - the so-called Asian values (reverence towards authority, sense of duty to the community) vs Western values (emphasis on individual freedoms and human rights).

as someone of Chinese ancestry, Australian born and raised, and living in Singapore for the past few years, i've had a lot of exposure to both in my lifetime. i'm not going to say that one is simply better overall than the other, they both have their respective merits. but in times of crisis such as these, to me Asian values are clearly more effective in getting things under control, where strong authority combined with respect for that authority is crucial.

here in Singapore they introduced strict quarantining and monitoring measures fairly early on before things got out of control (we've all been working from home for about a month now) with penalties including jail for disobeying. people complied with very little complaint. we had our own toilet paper crisis about 3-4 weeks ago, i saw it for myself, the toilet paper, canned food, rice, noodles shelves were completely bare. the government said cut that out, there's enough to go around for everyone. in less than a week supermarket shelves were restocked and back to normal, and they've been normal ever since.

then you contrast that with stories like this:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/aus...-despite-confirmed-cases-20200314-p54a08.html

the effects are clear. Singapore was one of the early frontrunners in cases outside China due to the close connections the country has with China, but after it got to 100 or so, the number of cases has basically flatlined. compare that to Italy, France, even the US where it is quickly spiralling out of control.

these are cultural principles that have become embedded over centuries of different human civilisations, they're not going to change overnight. so by all means look at what those countries are doing, but Aust is going to have to come up with its own plan based on Australian values to have the best chance of success.

 

[qldfrog]

worth checking out, but merely copying these countries may not work in Aust due to ideological differences - the so-called Asian values (reverence towards authority, sense of duty to the community) vs Western values (emphasis on individual freedoms and human rights).

as someone of Chinese ancestry, Australian born and raised, and living in Singapore for the past few years, i've had a lot of exposure to both in my lifetime. i'm not going to say that one is simply better overall than the other, they both have their respective merits. but in times of crisis such as these, to me Asian values are clearly more effective in getting things under control, where strong authority combined with respect for that authority is crucial.

here in Singapore they introduced strict quarantining and monitoring measures fairly early on before things got out of control (we've all been working from home for about a month now) with penalties including jail for disobeying. people complied with very little complaint. we had our own toilet paper crisis about 3-4 weeks ago, i saw it for myself, the toilet paper, canned food, rice, noodles shelves were completely bare. the government said cut that out, there's enough to go around for everyone. in less than a week supermarket shelves were restocked and back to normal, and they've been normal ever since.

then you contrast that with stories like this:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/aus...-despite-confirmed-cases-20200314-p54a08.html

the effects are clear. Singapore was one of the early frontrunners in cases outside China due to the close connections the country has with China, but after it got to 100 or so, the number of cases has basically flatlined. compare that to Italy, France, even the US where it is quickly spiralling out of control.

these are cultural principles that have become embedded over centuries of different human civilisations, they're not going to change overnight. so by all means look at what those countries are doing, but Aust is going to have to come up with its own plan based on Australian values to have the best chance of success.

Well written and so true

 

[CBerg]

I don't think governments, businesses and people have yet to appreciate the economic challenges of negotiating a 70% drop of economic activity for anything from 2-4 months.

On a personal level we know that at least 50% of the population is about 2 paychecks from being on the streets. At a business level I can't imagine many businesses having the cash in the bank or willingness to fund an uncertain extended period of minimal sales.

This is, in my mind, a completely different and much more challenging situation than say a war declaration. In wartime the government makes the market . It directs people to the forces or into industry . Everyone has to work. Probably harder and dirtier but the issue of economic bankruptcy is not upfront.

I have already seen articles where big companies have seriously wondered at their capacity to survive . I suggest this will take a lot more than sugar hits for pensioners and some (decent) pocket money for keeping on apprentices.

Thoughts ?

I think what you describe is a death sentence for democratic capitalist society imo.
Not many people would survive that situation with any form of wealth left over. You're saying to save society medically you need to bankrupt them. I don't think many people would choose that if that's how you framed it.

 

[SirRumpole]

I don't think governments, businesses and people have yet to appreciate the economic challenges of negotiating a 70% drop of economic activity for anything from 2-4 months.

On a personal level we know that at least 50% of the population is about 2 paychecks from being on the streets. At a business level I can't imagine many businesses having the cash in the bank or willingness to fund an uncertain extended period of minimal sales.

This is, in my mind, a completely different and much more challenging situation than say a war declaration. In wartime the government makes the market . It directs people to the forces or into industry . Everyone has to work. Probably harder and dirtier but the issue of economic bankruptcy is not upfront.

I have already seen articles where big companies have seriously wondered at their capacity to survive . I suggest this will take a lot more than sugar hits for pensioners and some (decent) pocket money for keeping on apprentices.

Thoughts ?

Well, certain industries will have to go into hibernation for a while. People will have to use up their leave, rec, extended and sick for the duration. The government will have to borrow to fill in the gaps. Fortunately interest rates are at all time lows, but will this last ? The demand for money will be so great you would think interest rates must rise, unless governments start printing money .

Uncharted waters ahead.

 

[CBerg]

As mentioned previously sick/personal/annual/long service leave is all predicated on the business still operating. I would predict a lot of places just shutting down or slimming down to just the owner or family running a small business instead of employees if faced with a 70% reduction in business.

I would think the government would have to print, who's going to lend to them on the basis they're stopping economic activity?