Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Dona Ferentes]

Sounds like a good package, will be interesting to see how Labor reacts (but irrelevant).

GFC response was $51 bill,.. in 2008 dollars.

More to come, keep powder dry.

 

[MrChow]

Unless this lasts 4-6 months without peaking Q3 should be stronger than Q2.

What is different though is that we will be in Winter.

 

[satanoperca]

Within a month all inter continetal travel will be band.
As the GP is going around expect infection rates to skyrocket in 4 weeks.
By the end of april all gov schools close.
By the end of June we will be in a deep recession.
But there must be opportunities out there.

 

[Smurf1976]

This announcement is going to rip whatever confidence remains in the market. I think we're going to see another bloodbath tonight, possibly the biggest.

I think we're at the point now where "unthinkable" things are becoming distinctly possible. All sorts of things could end up broke financially and there's all sorts of possible geopolitical implications from all this too.

What I hope beyond all else though is that it doesn't end in war.

As for the markets, well the ASX has hit a new low so the previous one didn't last long.

 

[IFocus]

What I hope beyond all else though is that it doesn't end in war.

Wars have started over a lot less but currently don't see any possible triggers.

 

[greggles]

Is anyone else of the view that the worldwide coronavirus outbreak could have as profound an impact on the global economy as the GFC did?

At this point, it's hard to quantify the economic cost, but I suspect it could be an eye watering figure after all is said and done.

There are many more corporate collapses coming. 150 companies in the US have warned of an earnings hit, and I suspect that is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[IFocus]

Going off the post you put up, which is only mathematical probability, it indicated the peak would be much sooner e.g 60 days making it end of April, May.
It will be interesting to see which proves right.

Remember its the interactions that gives rise to the maths so you can slow / skew the numbers down by containment and that changes depending on how aggressive you get which is what is happening in Australia hence the delay in peak.........hopefully with lower peak numbers, then everyone gets treatment that requires it.......hopefully.

 

[basilio]

Wars have started over a lot less but currently don't see any possible triggers.

Who needs a trigger ? How about just the desperation of millions of people sick, dying and untreated and a breakdown in the current financial and economic structures of society.

Be scary to see what is happening in Iran, Iraq, Palestine, Nth Korea just for a start

 

[Smurf1976]

Is anyone else of the view that the worldwide coronavirus outbreak could have as profound an impact on the global economy as the GFC did?

My basic thinking is that if someone pulls out a lot of economic charts, so things like manufacturing in various countries, education sector, house prices, stock prices, all sorts of economic statistics, then rather a lot of them will show an inflection point at the beginning of 2020 from which there will in practice be no recovery.

It's like the GFC - it's not hard to find a stock or other economic chart which still hasn't recovered as of now and probably never will. For that matter, well there's still things that haven't recovered from the 1987 crash or the 1973-74 oil embargo.

There'll be some permanent changes that's a given. An event which stuffs up business as usual for everyone from share traders to musicians isn't going to be brushed aside easily.

 

[basilio]

Stimulus package is all very good. But money can only go so far in dealing with the spread of this virus and the consequent impact on, basically, everything.

The real deal will be constructing and implementing the effective social and physica tools to quarantine people and slow/stop the spread of the virus. There is absolutely no way much traditional economic activity can be done in this scenario so , somehow, people have to be kept solvent and business viable if not actually making a profit.

A partial solution is the government employing/paying people and businesses to undertake the monitoring and supporting elements that are required to stop the virus.

In the end we want to come out alive, not bankrupt or homeless and with probably everyone taking a haircut but not getting scalped.

 

[sptrawler]

BHP $26 that is some fall.

 

[tech/a]

BHP $26 that is some fall.

You'll have to be quick for these opportunities.
When they turn they will ROCKET!

Demand will return.

 

[Smurf1976]

Who needs a trigger ? How about just the desperation of millions of people sick, dying and untreated and a breakdown in the current financial and economic structures of society.

An economy that's falling in a heap in an environment where nationalism has already been rising for quite some time.

I'm not predicting that anyone starts dropping bombs tomorrow but it could plausibly end up there depending on how things play out politically.

 

[basilio]

One of the most dangerous flashpoints for the spread of the virus is ensuring people self quarantine if they are at risk of falling ill. We will see this happen across hundreds of thousands of people and these days many will be on casual rates with no sick pay.
On balance most of these people will not have significant savings and will be living from pay check to pay check.

The risk that they will decide to work on rather than be evicted is too high to allow. Other countries like Singapore and Italy and even the UK are realising they need to underwrite people forced to stay at home to ensure their co operation and to make sure they don't get thrown onto the streets.

I don't think the stimulus package properly addresses that issue and it is crucial to somehow controlling the spread of the virus.

What other support is there for people unable to work?
The Government is waiving the waiting period for the sickness allowance and Newstart.

"A casual employee who would be impacted by coronavirus and for medical reasons would need to self-isolate, or, indeed, contracted the coronavirus and would not be able to work, they can access what is currently called the sickness payment," Mr Morrison said.

The Prime Minister claimed applicants could expect to be processed in five days. However, recent figures provided to Senate estimates show applicants for sickness allowance typically face processing times of a month or more.

He also confirmed no changes to eligibility will be made, meaning the asset test for the sickness allowance — set at "liquid assets" of $5,500 or more — will continue to apply.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/coronavirus-stimulus-explainer/12048632

 

[qldfrog]

He also confirmed no changes to eligibility will be made, meaning the asset test for the sickness allowance — set at "liquid assets" of $5,500 or more — will continue to apply.
This should be not asset tested: do I stay home or spread?
if I get nothing, and lose money, after all, for me, it is just a bad fever..F them....

should not be mean tested but virus tested with a one day allowance for testing delay; better than giving money for pensioner with no incite to stop the virus.
so yes everyone could claim a day off paid with that allowance but that would slow the spread.

 

[sptrawler]

Woolies coming to the party and paying casuals if quarantine requires it.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...hifts-due-to-coronavirus-20200312-p549cs.html

 

[basilio]

Woolies coming to the party and paying casuals if quarantine requires it.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...hifts-due-to-coronavirus-20200312-p549cs.html

BIG DEAL ! Makes sense and great leadership. I suggest they have deep pockets and good cash flow which is great. Have to see how smaller businesses try to cope.

Frankly I think it should be sickness allowance paid at the full pension rate quickly and simply and part of the governments strategy to combat the spread and support people and the business community. While this is great for Woolworths employees I can't see it spreading to the hospitality industry for instance.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I also saw somewhere Woolies, or was it Coles, was refusing to pay refunds to those people trying to return XS bog paper.

Way to go.

 

[sptrawler]

BIG DEAL ! Makes sense and great leadership. I suggest they have deep pockets and good cash flow which is great. Have to see how smaller businesses try to cope.
.

I thought it was a fair and decent thing to do and hopefully the bigger companies follow suit.
With regard smaller companies, isn't there special concessions for them? I thought I heard they were getting payments to keep people on?

 

[qldfrog]

While this is great for Woolworths employees I can't see it spreading to the hospitality industry for instance.

Cause I doubt they actually could: their aim now is to survive, seen today local cafe girl who got dismissed and others at reduced shift..the pain is here already
as for the owners, I suspect they have sleepless nights lately with falling attendance