Dump it Here

[Newt]

Thank you so much for sharing your YTD performance figures system across 3 very different systems MovingAverage. I was actually digging back the other day trying to find the last time you'd shared this. I'm personally down as much as you're up over a fairly challenging 6 months. Kudos for do what you doing and continuing on with business. ?

 

[MovingAverage]

Thank you so much for sharing your YTD performance figures system across 3 very different systems MovingAverage. I was actually digging back the other day trying to find the last time you'd shared this. I'm personally down as much as you're up over a fairly challenging 6 months. Kudos for do what you doing and continuing on with business. ?

Thanks—hope it is informative. I’m trying to do this at the end of each quarter. My last post was the end of Q1 so if you specifically want my last post on this look back to end of Sept early Oct. Happy new year to you.

 

[Skate]

Exploration Raw Signals




Backtest Portfolio Signals









Skate.

 

[Skate]

Exploration Raw Signals




Backtest Portfolio Signals





It all starts again...



Skate.

 

[Skate]

You can't go wrong buying stocks when they start to go up. Sell any that don't follow through and hold the winners.

@peter2 has explained trend trading in
1. Buy trending stock
2. Sell them when they don't follow through
3. Hold the winners
# (4) Knowing when to sell the winners

the age old question , ' should i have waited longer ( higher ) or should i have sold at all '

In all of my 25 years of trading, the most costliest mistake has ALWAYS been not selling a stock. If anybody asks what the most important part of trading is to me, I tell them "learning how to pull the trigger on a sell".

Getting into a trend is easy
Profitability comes from "selling the losers quickly" & knowing "when to sell the winners" is the secret.

Skate.

 

[Ann]

knowing "when to sell the winners" is the secrete.

This is the bit I am now working on on my KISS thread. I believe, on the whole, it may be quite simple as with the solution to most problems in life. So if what I think works, then it will not be a secret, all the world will be able to see how it is done.

 

[bk1]

is the secrete.

Lets hope it doesn't leave a nasty stain on the carpet, then....

 

[Skate]

New Positions: CXL, LTR, AGY, QPM

When others post
It's exciting to experience how other traders make their stock selection & the methodology that decides when a position is to be entered. Admittedly I don't have the time or unique skills-set to evaluate positions in this manner. My go-to is either the weekly or daily "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" to understand the reasoning a little better. Coding is pretty straightforward & it's easy to chart positions to understand the logic behind the selection.

Volatility & volume within an up-trend
"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" is easy to understand as the first "Blue Bar" is the signal bar, meaning we enter the position on the next day at the open. We sell the position on the 2nd red bar as the first "red" bar is the signal bar. "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a simple "volatility & volume" picking the increased "volatility & volume" of individual positions & plotting them with Blue & Red Bars so there is no mistaking what's going on with the price.

@peter2 New Position (CXL)
Trading is subjective but "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" plots the timing to enter & exit this position. It's one of many mechanical methods that involve no thinking. Meaning skill is not required

1. Buy the 2nd BLUE bar &
2. Sell the 2nd RED bar





@peter2 New Position (LTR)
"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" plots the timing to enter & exit this position. Simply buy the 2nd BLUE bar & Sell the 2nd RED bar.





@peter2 New Position (AGY)
"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" plots the timing to enter & exit this position. Simply buy the 2nd BLUE bar & Sell the 2nd RED bar.





@peter2 New Position (QPM)
"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" plots the timing to enter & exit this position. Simply buy the 2nd BLUE bar & Sell the 2nd RED bar.




Mechanical System trading
History has proven this style of trading works (Trend Trading). "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a simple "volatility & volume" picking the increased "volatility & volume" of individual positions & plotting a time to buy & sell, a simple & effictive process.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Lets hope it doesn't leave a nasty stain on the carpet, then....

Proof reading
I apologise for not proof reading my post.

Thanks, @bk1, it's been corrected. I should proofread my posts but at my age, I don't have the time. As Sweet Brown famously said "ain't nobody got time for that"

The Original




Why don't I proof read
"Ain't Nobody Got Time for That"

It's much better expressed by Ms Sweet Brown - who would of 'thunk' you could make a ton of money from this?



Skate.

 

[Ann]

When others post
It's exciting to experience how other traders make their stock selection & the methodology that decides when a position is to be entered. Admittedly I don't have the time or unique skills-set to evaluate positions in this manner. My go-to is either the weekly or daily "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" to understand the reasoning a little better. Coding is pretty straightforward & it's easy to chart positions to understand the logic behind the selection.

Volatility & volume within an up-trend
"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" is easy to understand as the first "Blue Bar" is the signal bar, meaning we enter the position on the next day at the open. We sell the position on the 2nd red bar as the first "red" bar is the signal bar. "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a simple "volatility & volume" picking the increased "volatility & volume" of individual positions & plotting them with Blue & Red Bars so there is no mistaking what's going on with the price.

@peter2 New Position (AGY)
"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" plots the timing to enter & exit this position. Simply buy the 2nd BLUE bar & Sell the 2nd RED bar.

View attachment 135040

Mechanical System trading
History has proven this style of trading works (Trend Trading). "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a simple "volatility & volume" picking the increased "volatility & volume" of individual positions & plotting a time to buy & sell, a simple & effictive process.

Skate.

I find the series of blue and red bars interesting on your charts. The closest I can get to these is to use Heikin-Ashi. Simply using H-A
as an auto entry and exit strategy may help you sell higher and enter lower, preferably using the 50dsma. In that way, you wouldn't be selling out just as the stock appears to be on the rise again. Just a thought and not meant to be a criticism.

Buy in with the light candles above the 50dsma, sell on the first dark after a good run-up, buy back in on the light as soon as the price is above the 50dsma. This would not be my first choice of trading, too much unnecessary activity for my taste!

Anyone interested in playing with Heikin-Ashi can find it on https://www.incrediblecharts.com/



All the best to you and yours for the New Year @Skate

 

[Skate]

Chart Reading - we are seeing different things
@peter2 & @Ann have the unique ability to read chart patterns as they are developing. Some Chart patterns can give you a false sense of security & can lead you into making a poor trading decision. With a "Mechanical Trading System", the ambiguity is removed. With system trading, you either take the signal or you don't.

What is the best - Technical or Fundamental Analysis or is it a combination of them both?
It’s really for you to decide between Technical & Fundamental Analysis or it can be a combination of both. The decision will be made on which method will give you your trading edge. The analysis process that allows you to have the confidence to lay your money down is the correct process for you. Some traders feel more aligned to one style than the other but the comfort level you feel will ultimately choose the process for you.

It's enlightening to view the charts of others
Charts are easy to interpret after the fact (in hindsight) as they are more predictable than they were before they occurred. Chart readers have a unique ability to express their opinion on certain information that validates what we already know to be true & then create a story about it to make sense out of the event as we attempt to explain it to ourselves.

The charts below give a comparison
As traders, we all have our reason to enter & exit a trade & the charts below illustrate the different methods. Is one charting method better than the other? I don't think so because they are looking at the same information & the interpretation is the only difference.

Daily Charts
My previous charts for (AGY, CXL, LTR) were weekly charts & as @Ann posted a daily chart for AGY it's fitting to re-post the charts for the same periodicity. Each chart displays the entry & exit points for comparison only.


Skate's Chart for (AGY)




Ann's Chart for (AGY)




Peter's Chart for (AGY)





Skate's Chart for (CXL)




Peter's Chart for (CXL)





Skate's Chart for (LTR)




Peter's Chart for (LTR)

After all we're both trading the same types of price moves, trend and momentum and these can be easily defined.

Summary
The charts for the three positions (AGY, CXL, LTR) are typical "trend trading" breakouts. The chart for (QPM) has not been uploaded as @peter2 explains this position is the odd one out. (QPM) has been on Peter's watchlist for a possible reversal opportunity going on to explain it's more a "gutfeel" reversal to be perfectly honest.

Skate.

 

[peter2]

Thanks for posting the daily charts. I know my entries are very similar to the Duc's. The Duc's are a little too sensitive for me and I wait for the chart to be clearer. The LTR charts are a good example. Lots of noise with the Duc's signals and I'm happy to buy the BO above the noise.

 

[Ann]

Daily Charts
My previous charts for (AGY, CXL, LTR) were weekly charts & as @Ann posted a daily chart for AGY it's fitting to re-post the charts for the same periodicity. Each chart displays the entry & exit points for comparison only.

No Skate, I was very careful to post a weekly chart and not a daily chart, my time scale was a 12month period I think your time scale may have been nine months. Otherwise, my comparison would have been pointless.

Here are the two charts again, your weekly chart and my weekly chart.





Edit: your buy in was June/july mine was June, as the rise above the 50dsma was the go signal.

 

[Ann]

@peter2 & @Ann have the unique ability to read chart patterns as they are developing.

Neither @peter2 nor I have a 'unique' ability to read charts, it is simply years of practice. There are a host of accomplished chartists on this forum with their own individual take on a chart read. We all find our reliable truths about how we read a chart. That is purely 'time in', and practice, years and years of practice. I practice almost every day. I work and work on my charts regardless of whether I am trading or not. The beauty of trading is it allows mistakes to be made and those mistakes are worth profoundly more than any loss incurred if one takes the time to do a forensic analysis of the error of the trade. However, it means once a person has learned to read a chart then they are not trapped or beholden to a 'system'. In other words, they are not hostages and potential victims of the 'system'.

It’s really for you to decide between Technical & Fundamental Analysis or it can be a combination of both.

Frankly, most people who call themselves Fundamental investors are simply kidding themselves, they are just suckers for a good story. Having said that there are very gifted people who can cut through all the garbage and really look at the figures and know what they are seeing. This is fine if you are prepared to spend hours and hours assessing a single company. A chartist on the other hand can look at the pure essence of a company in its chart, as all the available information both public and insider, is on full display and can assess its health within seconds.

Chart readers have a unique ability to express their opinion on certain information that validates what we already know to be true & then create a story about it to make sense out of the event as we attempt to explain it to ourselves.

You totally misunderstand what charting is all about Skate, we as chartists do not need to 'create a story' all we will say is what aspects of the chart we may be focused on and attempt to share our view with others. There is no created story, simply what each of us is seeing. No reasonable chartist will ever say 'this will happen because'... We say we believe something will happen if certain indications on the chart come to pass.

Let me give a quick example FMG. Many people here are very positive regarding FMG and its ability to rise. This may very well be so, many people I respect here, are bullish. I on the other hand have my reservations, why? For me, I see two very long term trendlines becoming resistance lines and the 200dsma sits above the current price level and it has fallen off a short term support line. When and if these resistance lines are overcome then I could certainly come back and assess the stock. However, there is also an overhead resistance line coming up shortly on the Iron Ore price chart and if that causes a fall back in the Iron Ore price then I should suspect this will cause more downward pressure on FMG. Do I know for sure? No. Does it matter? Again no. However, if I was holding FMG, then I would need to make a decision about an exit or not if it continues under $20.

Daily chart 12 month view.

 

[Skate]

Rollover to the SMSF is now complete. Funds have been transferred to the trading account. Funds have arrived. Ready to rock 'n' roll.

I've been reviewing my backtest and trade stats (which I am more than comfortable with) and trend following is to let our open trade profits run to allow us to hunt down outlier trades that make most of the systems money, why are we so concerned with drawdowns?

Exciting times
I can clearly remember being at the same stage @Cam019 finds himself. It was a time of excitement & exhilaration bundled with a bit of nervousness thrown in. Cam's recent post had me thinking about a few remarks he had previously made - being more concerned with catching the long-term moves at the expense of higher drawdowns.

Monthly Momentum Strategy
I'm sure Cam's "Monthly Momentum Strategy" resembles nothing like my strategy. Having a different set of parameters & filters is just skirting around the edges. My momentum strategy uses only two indicators as the buy condition being the StochD & MACD.

Predictive powers. How?
Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. Stochastic is also a momentum indicator that shows the strength of a current trend. It does so by comparing the current price to the range of prices within a definite lookback period. Combining the StochD & MACD forms a solid indicator of strength. These two indicators are at the very heart of everything this strategy hopes to achieve. The premise behind the idea is simple. Enter on a confirmed monthly trend with strength & get out at the end of the month when strength fails to keep building.

6 Years of Backtest results
If you have the conviction of @Cam019 with the persistence of @MovingAverage trading this strategy should appeal to those who enjoy watching paint dry. If you can accept the drawdowns, the rest would be smooth sailing.




Summary
I'll be watching Cam's thread with extreme interest while at the same time wishing him the best of luck.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

You totally misunderstand what charting is all about Skate, we as chartists do not need to 'create a story' all we will say is what aspects of the chart we may be focused on and attempt to share our view with others.

Charting
Chart readers always protect there arse by saying it could go this ways, than again the price may go the other way (bloody confusing at best) Furthermore, I’m suggesting that chart patterns are easy to interpret after they happened & they are more predictable than they were before they occurred.

If you have an alternative view on this post, please feel free to express it. (I'm expressing my opinion only)

If opinions didn't differ there wouldn't be any trading..

like many other members on ASF "I have an opinion".

Sometimes you may not like my opinion if so don't worry - "I have plenty more"

It's your Choice
Chart reading is one tool, reading financial statements is another, the tool you pick belongs to you as it's ultimately your choice. The financial market is a complex system, but that doesn’t mean it requires a complex strategy to be successful. Most traders can’t predict if the market will open higher or lower tomorrow let alone what a company’s price movement might do in the future.

Coding an idea
Coding a trading idea stands head & shoulders above all other tools mentioned above (IMHO) & it's the perfect tool to have in our trading toolbox.

I tend not to believe those who think they know what the future holds
The problems with Chart Patterns (as I see it) Patterns look good in the middle of the chart when you can only trade at the hard right edge.

I knew it all along
Looking back at charts with 20‐20 vision in hindsight is sometimes called the “I‐knew‐it‐all‐along effect,” suggesting that people view events after they happened as more predictable than they were before they occurred & "most" chart readers fall into this category.

To prevent an argument
## (At this point I would like to reiterate that I said "MOST" & not "ALL") ##

Opinions
Often, we realise our errors (incorrect opinions or assumptions) after the fact & it's far too late to change that opinion when trading live.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

A difference of opinions is healthy
Having an alternative view to others & expressing in a polite manner is how we learn but once an alternative is expressed robustly it can quickly escalate encouraging others to join in. Instead of arguing the point, they tend to attack the person with the intent of upsetting them until they respond emotionally. After reading some comments in "another thread" it's time to make a general comment.

The "Dump it here" thread
I quickly discourage others from arguing with others in this thread as it's like masturbating in public. It may feel good to you, but it looks disgusting to everyone else & it just makes the other person work harder to find ways to disagree with you.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

if I was holding FMG, then I would need to make a decision about an exit or not if it continues under $20.

Mechanical System Trading "makes the decision for you"
As @Ann has posted a daily chart of (FMG) it gives me a segue way to do the same. As I mentioned earlier my go-to is either the monthly, weekly, or daily "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" to understand comments made by others. The "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" is pretty straightforward & it's easy to understand as the chart has only two coloured bars. (Blue & Red).

The first "Bar" is the signal bar
The first "Blue Bar" is the signal bar, meaning we enter the position on the next day at the open. We sell the position on the 2nd red bar as the first "red" bar is the signal bar.

Periodicity
As "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a simple "volatility & volume" strategy is unique in that it works in all periodicities without coding alterations.

Monthly Chart (FMG)
The entry & exit signals are displayed for quick reference. Periodicity is not a concern as "volatility & volume" is a constant in all time frames. The "Aqua Arrow" denotes the result from taking the position.







Weekly Chart (FMG)
The entry & exit signals are displayed for quick reference. Periodicity is not a concern as "volatility & volume" is a constant in all time frames.






Daily Chart (FMG)
The entry & exit signals are displayed for quick reference. Periodicity is not a concern as "volatility & volume" is a constant in all time frames.






For Comparison
@Ann Daily chart for FMG




Summary
Looking at the "Aqua Arrows" on my charts demonstrates no matter what periodicity you elected to trade "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" would have been profitable, which is the end game for system traders. Trend trading is timing when to jump on & when to hop off - riding one trend after the other is the name of the game.

Skate.

 

[Ann]

For Comparison
@Ann Daily chart for FMG

OK, let's do a four-month daily comparison with your chart and mine, as my original chart you used was in an entirely different time frame of 12 months. My capital is not being eroded by unnecessary trading. I entered once and exited once. As an aside, consolidation periods can be very beneficial when a stock eventually takes off. It takes out the sellers to an extent, which in turn reduced the selling pressure on the way up.
I hope I am not appearing argumentative, I am not attacking Skate or his system just offering an alternate view if anyone has the interest and energy to learn to chart.

 

[Skate]

A difference of opinions is healthy
Having an alternative view to others & expressing in a polite manner is how we learn but once an alternative is expressed robustly it can quickly escalate encouraging others to join in. Instead of arguing the point, they tend to attack the person with the intent of upsetting them until they respond emotionally. After reading some comments in "another thread" it's time to make a general comment.

@Ann those comments were not directed at you. On the contrary, I appreciate you posting your view with charts as they add tremendous value for others.

The post I made was in reference to ongoing comments made in another thread. Comments such as these can influence how one behaves in general & politeness can evaporate from this thread.

It was a "general" timely reminder that I make on a regular basis & they are never directed to anyone in particular.

Skate.