Duc's Daily Dozen

[Skate]

One of Europe’s Oldest Refineries to Halt Operations. Scotland’s only refinery, the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth plant operated by PetroIneos, is expected to shut down by spring 2025 with the operator seeking to revamp it into a diesel import facility.

The article shared by @ducati916 highlights a concerning trend, where some countries have increasing global competition, particularly from Asia and the Middle East when it comes to energy supply.

This shift towards importation rather than self-sufficiency is a worrying sign for any region or country's energy security. It's a reminder that the world is increasingly interconnected, and the decisions made by one country can have far-reaching consequences for others.

It's important to recognise that this change is not a step towards energy independence, but rather a sign of increasing reliance on others for energy needs.

This trend is not unique to Europe, as many countries are grappling with the challenges posed by the energy transition. It's a complex issue that requires careful consideration and planning to ensure that the needs of the present are met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

In conclusion, the shutdown of the Grangemouth refinery is a significant development that highlights the ongoing changes in the global energy landscape. It serves as a reminder that countries must be proactive in addressing their energy needs and work towards achieving energy independence, rather than relying solely on imports from other nations.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

The article shared by @ducati916 highlights a concerning trend, where some countries have increasing global competition, particularly from Asia and the Middle East when it comes to energy supply.

This shift towards importation rather than self-sufficiency is a worrying sign for any region or country's energy security. It's a reminder that the world is increasingly interconnected, and the decisions made by one country can have far-reaching consequences for others.

It's important to recognise that this change is not a step towards energy independence, but rather a sign of increasing reliance on others for energy needs.

This trend is not unique to Europe, as many countries are grappling with the challenges posed by the energy transition. It's a complex issue that requires careful consideration and planning to ensure that the needs of the present are met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

In conclusion, the shutdown of the Grangemouth refinery is a significant development that highlights the ongoing changes in the global energy landscape. It serves as a reminder that countries must be proactive in addressing their energy needs and work towards achieving energy independence, rather than relying solely on imports from other nations.

Skate.

to me , it just shows that the UK( and EU ) have lost the plot and learned nothing from two major European Wars or the Russian Sanctioning farce looks like the dark ages are about to return , especially if Russia prefers to export to other areas of the globe like those Africa guys that want to swap their gold for oil

 

[ducati916]

So yesterday I was browsing ASF and read: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/oil-price-discussion-and-analysis.797/page-155

So oil:



With a need for a lower USD because of increased volatility in the UST market if the USD is strong, the US needs lower oil prices otherwise the inflation numbers jump higher. If the inflation numbers jump higher, the Fed's higher for longer stays in place.

So oil must fall.

We have seen POO manipulated lower in the past by SPR releases.

The issue for lower POO is that US Shale requires higher prices. Prices north of an 8-handle. If the oil is not recovered, the recovery rate drops alarmingly.

Long term: very bullish oil. Oil is a definite BTD.




Daytrading/short term trading strategies researched.



Mr flippe-floppe-flye:



So the history of this goes back many years.

Once on his site (Mr fff) there was a college kid named Danny. He was a skateboarder who was at San Diego State Uni. He was heavily into trading stocks. He became very interested in the Quant game.

At some point he got Mr fff interested in developing a quant type of platform.

Along the way, all hell let loose and major arguments developed over ownership, intellectual property, money, all the usual stuff. I was sort of part of this in a very marginal way, very marginal and stayed on the site for a while before being assassinated.





Danny went his own way: https://spydercrusher.wordpress.com/

Mr fff has over the years developed/hyped Stocklabs.

I've never actually used his stuff so I couldn't comment on whether it is good, bad or indifferent. Scanners are scanners. Usually you have to have some sort of idea/plan as to what you are looking for to make them successful.

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

So yesterday I was browsing ASF and read: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/oil-price-discussion-and-analysis.797/page-155

So oil:

View attachment 166321View attachment 166320View attachment 166319View attachment 166318

With a need for a lower USD because of increased volatility in the UST market if the USD is strong, the US needs lower oil prices otherwise the inflation numbers jump higher. If the inflation numbers jump higher, the Fed's higher for longer stays in place.

So oil must fall.

We have seen POO manipulated lower in the past by SPR releases.

The issue for lower POO is that US Shale requires higher prices. Prices north of an 8-handle. If the oil is not recovered, the recovery rate drops alarmingly.

Long term: very bullish oil. Oil is a definite BTD.


View attachment 166316

Daytrading/short term trading strategies researched.

View attachment 166315

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

View attachment 166314View attachment 166313View attachment 166312View attachment 166311View attachment 166310

So the history of this goes back many years.

Once on his site (Mr fff) there was a college kid named Danny. He was a skateboarder who was at San Diego State Uni. He was heavily into trading stocks. He became very interested in the Quant game.

At some point he got Mr fff interested in developing a quant type of platform.

Along the way, all hell let loose and major arguments developed over ownership, intellectual property, money, all the usual stuff. I was sort of part of this in a very marginal way, very marginal and stayed on the site for a while before being assassinated.

View attachment 166322



Danny went his own way: https://spydercrusher.wordpress.com/

Mr fff has over the years developed/hyped Stocklabs.

I've never actually used his stuff so I couldn't comment on whether it is good, bad or indifferent. Scanners are scanners. Usually you have to have some sort of idea/plan as to what you are looking for to make them successful.

jog on
duc

The day trading tactical account looks impressive. Trust it?

 

[ducati916]

The day trading tactical account looks impressive. Trust it?

Sean,

I have no idea whether it is accurate or not.

I follow Mr fff tongue-firmly-in-cheek. His positions/analysis change with the wind, hence his moniker.

My position on scanners etc is: if it really made you significant % returns on capital, why would you rent it out. A scanner is a scanner is a scanner. The bells and whistles are just that bells and whistles. Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don't.

And of course I still hold a grudge on my assassination!

jog on
duc

 

[UMike]

He is really interesting but I''d be hesitant to follow as anyone that carries on like that is doomed to at some stage come crashing down.

Thanks for sharing Duc

 

[Sean K]

Sean,

I have no idea whether it is accurate or not.

I follow Mr fff tongue-firmly-in-cheek. His positions/analysis change with the wind, hence his moniker.

My position on scanners etc is: if it really made you significant % returns on capital, why would you rent it out. A scanner is a scanner is a scanner. The bells and whistles are just that bells and whistles. Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don't.

And of course I still hold a grudge on my assassination!

jog on
duc

Looks to be entertaining anyway.

 

[peter2]

Thanks for the partial historical enlightenment. Sorry to see you assassinated but something has to give when big egos clash.

I enjoy reading Dr Fly's daily rants and I'm impressed by his drive. A few bps each day certainly adds up.

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

This year’s Thanksgiving has recorded the busiest air traffic day ever according to the US Transportation Security Administration, with more than 2.9 million people traveling through the country’s airports.

- Returning jet fuel demand has been a hallmark of this year’s crude oil demand, with India recently reporting the highest kerosene consumption figures since March 2020 at 177,000 b/d.

- Jet fuel has been the most sizable product category to grow this year, adding more than 900,000 b/d year-on-year to hit the highest post-pandemic annual reading of 6.2 million b/d, largely boosted by higher Asian aviation activity.

- Consequently, jet fuel prices in Asia rose to their highest since early 2019 against peer product diesel, with swaps trading at a premium of 85 cents per barrel, despite arbitrage being narrowly open to both Europe and the US.

Market Movers

- Brazil’s national oil firm Petrobras (NYSEBR) has presented its 2024-2028 strategic plan, pledging to invest $102 billion over that period and expand into the renewable and fertilizer markets.

- UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) has received government approval to enter Japan’s electricity market with its BPEJ subsidiary, eyeing renewable energy and power market investments.

- Canada’s leading oil producer Suncor Energy (TSE:SU) has restarted production at its Atlantic coast Terra Nova oil field after completing a life extension project until at least 2031.

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

The postponement of last week's OPEC+ meeting put downward pressure on oil prices, but storms blocking Russian export terminals have added some pricing upside as Kazakhstan’s oil producers are considering production cuts to avoid storage tanks overfilling. With ICE Brent now back above $80 per barrel, US inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting will shape price developments in the second half of this week.

OPEC Clashes with the IEA. OPEC Secretary General Haitham al Ghais accused the International Energy Agency of vilifying the oil and gas industry, adding that the IEA plays down issues such as energy security and affordability, calling for a “dangerous” phase-down in energy investment.

Tanker Distress Now Moves to the Gulf of Aden. The US military prevented a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Aden from being seized by armed individuals, with the Central Park chemical tanker being most probably targeted due to it being managed by a company owned by Israel’s Ofer family.

China Set for Peak Power Demand. According to China’s National Energy Administration, the Asian country will see both electricity and gas consumption peak in the winter of 2023/2024, with the former soaring 12% year-on-year to 140 million KW yet shortages should be largely avoided.

Alberta to Defy Federal Government’s Policy. The premier of Alberta province in Canada Danielle Smith pledging to shield provincial power companies from Ottawa’s federal clean electricity regulations that aim to reach a net-zero emissions power grid by 2035, defending gas-burning plants.

Chinese Major Expands into India’s Underbelly. The government of Sri Lanka is expected to approve a bid from China’s oil major Sinopec (SHA:600028) to build a $4.5 billion refinery, outbidding commodity trader Vitol for the deal, expanding its Belt and Road Initiative to a long-time India ally.

Eyeing Higher Output, Libya Seeks More Investment. Libya’s state oil company NOC stated it needs an annual budget of $17 billion to increase national output from the current 1.2 million b/d to 2 million b/d over the next three years, saying replacing old pipelines would require the most funding.

Storms Disrupt Russia’s Crude Exports. Oil and product exports from Russia’s Novorossiysk port located on the country’s Black Sea coast have been halted for days due to severe storms, most probably forcing exporters to move sizable parts of this month’s loading schedule to December.

Hefty Fine Adds Salt to Uniper’s Wounds. One of Europe’s most battered companies, Germany’s utility giant Uniper said it’s compelled to pay €550 million ($600 million) to Italy’s ENI (BIT:ENI) after an arbitration court ruling that found the firm’s retroactive pricing to be unjustified.

Chinese Solar Giant Warns of Consolidation. Gao Jifan, the head of China’s Trina Solar, has warned that extremely low solar panel prices have left the entire supply chain bereft of profit and that further capacity expansion from solar majors will start a wave of consolidation as early as 2024.

Intervention Fears Push Iron Ore Prices Lower. China’s state economic planner NDRC announced its intent to “deepen its understanding of how iron ore prices are compiled”, sending iron ore prices down to $133 per metric tonne and cutting short the longest streak of weekly gains since January.

India Steps Up Purchases of Russian Coal. India is ramping up imports of Russian coking coal as deliveries from Australia have been hindered by maintenance outages and high prices, surging as high as $350 per metric tonne, making use of new payment mechanisms between the two nations.

France Starts Selling Green Nuclear Bond. France’s utility giant EDF started selling its first green €500 million bond maturing in 2027 that could be used to finance nuclear energy projects, with the French company specifically targeting nuclear reactor upgrades within its own fleet.

Markets Start to Lose Faith in Oil. Net positions in the WTI futures contract have shrunk for the seventh consecutive week, bringing the total of net long positions to the lowest reading since June at 104 million barrels’ equivalent and reflecting a general decline in bullish sentiment

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So the US is Argentina and not Japan.

Therefore some illustrative charts.

Their new President is by pushing for a move to the USD and higher FDI, is setting them up in a similar way to the Asian Tigers in the late 80's culminating in the Asian crisis of 1998.

Sure it's way down the road, he probably won't be in power anymore, etc.

US consumer is nervous.

Gold:

Gold is on track to book its highest weekly close in history. It hasn’t reached all-time highs on a daily basis yet, but it’s less than 2% from doing so. Many have given up on the yellow metal, as it’s fumbled numerous breakout attempts in the post-Covid era. It’s completing a three-year base, next to a nine-year base, which together form a 12-year Cup & Handle pattern. The annotations on the chart highlight several base breakouts that were followed by triple-digit returns. In the note, John commented, “Breakouts over nearly 50 years have produced equity-like gains. Maybe gold doesn’t possess any of the sexiness A.I. offers, but sometimes wisdom wins out.”


In memory of Mr Munger:

“To get what you want, you have to deserve what you want. The world is not yet a crazy enough place to reward a whole bunch of undeserving people.”

- Charlie Munger

As I have run out of chart uploads a C&P of Mr flippe-floppe-flye:

SUPER ******* BULLED UP​

Dr. Fly Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:09pm EST 1 Comment


I am not afraid — never have been. I leaned into the market with all of my vigor and leveraged the **** up long 130% in stocks that have no business being in a portfolio of a gentleman. My portfolio beta stands at 2.16, which means at the onset of trading tomorrow I’ll either be richly rewarded and insufferable in victory, or miserably whipped at the gibbet — downtrodden and alone.
Either way, I’ve made sport of my avocation and made +128bps in flawless trading today — inspired, truthfully, by the pin action in BUY NOW AND PAY NEVER stalwart $AFRM. I do believe we are in a momentum oriented tape and I do believe this will extend into tomorrow’s trade. I cannot promise you anything more than that, in regards to the market.
As for me, I can promise you excellence on par with no one, the pinnacle of trading success. What this success has done for my life remains to be seen. I suppose I’ve made some money and some friends along the way. But that’s a subject matter for another day.
What’s important for today is for me to tell you that I deserve more, entitled even — gifts bestowed upon me by celestial powers, emblazoned ideas curated by the Gods placed directly into my head so I can come here now and talk **** to you. It’s all very amusing, if you think about it.
All trades are discussed and announced in real time inside the comforts of Stocklabs. Quit being catamites and join today, became the man your Father always wanted you to become — tall, rich, and strong.
******* off for now — ciao.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Here we go...



So for Mr flippe-floppe-flye I'll have to C&P:

HATED THE ******* PIN ACTION​

Dr. Fly Wed Nov 29, 2023 4:14pm EST Leave a comment


What is the absolute worst case scenario for a trader? Is it an earnings miss when long some calls? Is it shorting when spiking and buying when tanking — bad timing? Well for me the absolute bane of trading is entering the arena a success and leaving a loser. It’s akin to standing over your enemy in triumph, turning your back to celebrate with the crowd, only to see said enemy rise up and cut your face in half.
I’ve had innumerable days like that in my trading career and they’ve always made me feel the absolute worst. Since I am a deeply empathetic person, I feel everything orders of magnitudes more than you, the unwashed reader.
I had a vision today with me sitting in front of my laptop, harangued by losses after some early wins. It started to manifest itself mid-day as markets broke lower. I was leveraged long and up 240bps for the session, mostly arrogant and unperturbed by the chaos unfolding around me. But then the market worsened, taking some of my gains with it.

I watched in disbelief as +240bps melted into +200bps and then +190bps and then +150bps and then +130bps — causing me to quickly hedge to stop the bleeding and then reflect.

I thought to myself “If I stepped into today and made 1.3% — would I be happy?”

The answer was of course yes.

I then asked “if I allowed these losses mount to the point I lost all gains — how would I feel?”

It would likely send me into a weeks long trading slump, so I did the mature thing and liquidated all of my longs, closed half my shorts at a profit and waited for 10 mins to the close to positions into tomorrow.

In the end, I closed up 148bps, net short and with a defensive book, which can be amended quickly at the open tomorrow. After the bell both $CRM and $SNOW beat — so barring some bull**** calls — it looks like the NASDAQ will surge ahead tomorrow.

Not My Tape​

Dr. Fly Thu Nov 30, 2023 10:14am EST Leave a comment


Real psycho action this morning.
Rates are sharply higher. Why they’re higher remains to be seen. Maybe just because.
Oil is knee jerking up and I get it.
The Dow and small caps are higher but the NASDAQ is lower led by big tech. I don’t get this, especially after $CRM and $SNOW beat.
VIX is up but $UVIX is down, naturally. The persons who made the VIXA ETFs should be arrested and executed. No trial needed.
I covered the wrong hedge this morning and have TZA left, much to my chagrin. I’m down 60bps and don’t think I’ll make it back today. We’re likely to trade slow and sloppy. I’m better off trading less in a tape like today, where oil is the star. Often times when oil or crypto miners are up early, they fall prey to sellers throughout the day and cascade the **** lower.


The chart to keep a close eye on: USD

The Treasury needed it lower to calm the UST market. UST auctions have remained weak. However it is next year as the deficits really start to bite, UST rollover, where the functioning of the UST market will be badly roiled.

In a collapse of the USD the USD will initially paradoxically rise higher. Far higher as there is a scramble for USD. It is here that the Fed will have to step in and outright monetize.

As the USD is rising, it will be USD and gold higher, everything else lower.

As the Fed starts to monetize, stocks will recover. The issue is as inflation explodes, which stocks will retain pricing power.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Markets on a speech from the Fed chair (Powell).



Markets seem to believe that the Fed is done raising rates.

What the market doesn't seem to take into account is the (-65%) NIIP. This is a huge factor, balanced on the strength/weakness of USD that can push rates far higher irrespective of what the Fed does/does not want.



November (obviously) a very bullish outcome.

Mr flippe-floppe-flye:




And yet gold at all time highs? Gold is the classic canary in the coal mine. Gold is the run to safety trade. Gold is ultra-conservative.

So JC is mocking the bears, essentially placing all of his analysis on price charts, without considering the price chart (it would seem) of the message from gold.

Add to that:



Again something that you should pay attention to?

Physical gold is being accumulated. By whom? The East. USD hegemony is being challenged. The UST is being replaced as the world's reserve asset, at a time when the US Treasury will be issuing the largest amount of paper ever and accelerating.

Curious, no?

Oil News:

Friday, December 1st, 2023

Oil markets welcomed the new OPEC+ deal that pledged 2.2 million b/d in voluntary cuts for the first quarter of 2024 in a very lukewarm manner, with Brent erasing all its earlier gains and dropping back to $81 per barrel. With even the most seasoned industry watchers starting to lose track of which country will be cutting what amount against which reference level, the production target confusion was aggravated by the fact that markets expected deeper cuts, going over and above what Saudi Arabia or Russia have already curbed from their output.

OPEC+ Cuts Production Further. Members of the OPEC+ oil group agreed to voluntary production cuts totalling 2.2 million b/d for Q1 2024 as the group’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia rolled over its current voluntary cut of 1 million b/d and Russia widened its pledge to 500,000 b/d.

Brazil to Become Member of OPEC+ Family. South America’s largest oil producer Brazil is set to officially become a member of OPEC+ from January 2024 even though it would not join the oil group’s ongoing round of production cuts, seeing output soar to all-time highs in recent months.

Gold to Hit All-Time Highs Soon. With market sentiment shifting back to a US hard landing in Q1 2024, prices of gold have been moving closer to their record high recorded in August 2020 at $2,063 per metric tonne and rallied more than 11% since October.

LME Reinvigorated by End of Nickel Trading Scandal. The London Metal Exchange won a legal case against hedge funds Elliott Associates and Jane Street Global Trading that demanded $472 million in compensation for canceled nickel trades worth billions of dollars, allowing LME to recoup some reputation.

Oxy Might Be the Next M&A Champion. US oil major Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) is closing in on a deal with shale Permian company CrownRock with a bid of more than $10 billion, potentially outbidding ConocoPhillips and taking over some 86,000 net acres of shale patches in the Midland.

Activist Investors Go After Phillips 66. Only 2 years after its spat with ExxonMobil, activist investor Elliott Investment took a $1 billion stake in US refiner Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) and is now demanding that the downstream firm revamp its board due to weaker performance that kept market share subdued.

Norwegian Major to Quit Nigeria. Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) had agreed to sell its onshore Nigerian business, including the almost condensate-like Agbami field, to a local upstream firm Chappal Energies, ending 30 years of Norwegian presence in the African country.

India Demands Generators to Maximize Coal. India’s government is prompting power generators across the country to add some 17 GW of coal-fuelled capacity to avert electricity outages amidst soaring demand for power, up 10% year-on-year, also unfreezing 38 idled coal plant projects.

Iran Sets Ambitious 2024-2025 Targets. Iran’s government is set to base its 2024-2025 budget on an oil price of $71 per barrel as well as crude and condensate exports of 1.35 million b/d, a notable downgrade compared to last year’s $85 per barrel breakeven cost.

Referendum Raises the Specter of a Venezuela-Guyana War. Venezuela will carry out a referendum on its territorial dispute with Guyana over the contested oil-rich Essequibo territory on December 3, leading to a notable uptick in military activities in the wider region.

TMX Sorts Out Tolling Issues. Canada’s energy regulator CER approved preliminary interim tolls for the Trans Mountain Pipeline system, clearing the largest obstacle to commissioning now as shippers would need to commit to a $11.46 per barrel toll, to be signed under a 15-year pipeline deal.

Lithium Prices Might Still Fall Lower. Analysts are predicting even further pricing downside to lithium carbonate prices as surging supply has been outpacing the rise in demand, with a Reuters survey indicating the trough might be as low ¥80,000 per metric tonne ($11,300/mt) next year.

European Windfall Taxes Hurt Refiners. Poland’s national oil company PKN Orlen (WSEKN) saw its shares plunge some 10% this week after the newly elected government introduced a windfall tax on revenues from natural gas production, expecting a revenue loss of $1.5-1.6 billion.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Some big themes developing:

(a) Reshoring the manufacturing base. Long term good. Short term inflationary.

(b) Xi and Putin winning the currency war. They have been planning this for 20yrs+/-

(c) Interest rates are likely to remain volatile as inflation remains inflation.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So let's start with an ultra bullish article:

Wall Street's 2024 outlook for stocks 🔭

Plus a charted review of the macro crosscurrents 🔀

www.tker.co

It's a long read, but if you are bullish, full of good things.

Then we have the Sahm rule:



Oil News:

In a deja vu moment for UN climate change conferences, participating nations are once again quarreling about whether to demand a full phase-out of fossil fuels, a claim Saudi Arabia already denounced as unrealistic.

- Climate change watchers have lashed out at the president of COP28 Sultan al-Jaber for saying the world cannot afford to go “back into caves” and it needs fossil energy for sustainable development, a claim they allege contradicts the UN’s own agenda.

- The COP28 summit has so far managed to formalize a pledge to triple global renewables capacity by the end of this decade, create a climate disaster fund and cut cooling-related emissions by at least 68% globally by 2050.

- More than 2,400 delegates at the COP28 summit were representing the oil, gas and coal industries, almost five times more than at the previous summit in Glasgow, triggering the ire of environmentalists that accuse them of lobbying against much-needed measures.

Market Movers

- US midstream major Equitrans Midstream (NYSE:ETRN) is considering selling the entire business according to Bloomberg, aiming to capitalize on the upcoming start of the Mountain Valley pipeline.

- Colombia’s national oil firm Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) will invest $5.8-6.7 billion and produce up to 730,000 boepd in 2024, in line with this year’s levels though focusing more on energy transition from now on.

- The ownership reconfiguration in Trinidad and Tobago’s Atlantic LNG facility will see BP’s (NYSE:BP) share in the project rise to 45%, equalling that of Shell (LON:SHEL) which previously used to own 54% of the asset.

Tuesday, December 05, 2023

Members of the OPEC+ group continue to insist that the 2024 production targets allocated last week will have an impact on oil markets, only to receive lukewarm acknowledgment from market participants. A rebound in US refining last week is more likely to trigger some bullish momentum than Saudi Arabia or Russia, with ICE Brent currently trading around $79 per barrel, although the continuous stream of weak macroeconomic data limits the upside for now.

COP28 Mulls Fossil Fuel Phase Out. The second draft of the COP28 final agreement circulated amongst participants shows the summit is considering calling for an “orderly and just” phase-out of fossil fuels, though COP27’s call for phasing out “unabated” fossil fuels might prevail again.

Lula Plays Down Brazil’s OPEC+ Role. Brazilian President Lula da Silva said the Latin American country will never be a full member of OPEC and only strives to have an observer’s role in the group, alleging that Brazil wants to influence the policy of the world’s largest oil producers.

Red Sea Becomes Toxic for Israeli Commercial Tankers. In the most recent escalation of maritime trade risks, Houthi militias claimed to have attacked two commercial Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea, subsequently also attacking US warship USS Carney that responded to the vessels’ distress call.

Dozens of COP28 Participants Agree to Nuclear Pledge. 22 nations comprising the US, Canada, France, and even Japan have committed to triple the world’s nuclear capacity by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, acknowledging the “key role” of nuclear power in reaching net zero global emissions.

US Vows to Speed Up SPR Replenishments. The US Department of Energy has announced that it would speed up the repurchase of 4 million barrels of oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by February 2024 instead of the upcoming summer, lifting it from the current 351.6 MMbbls.

India Starts Buying Venezuelan Oil Again. India’s largest refiner Reliance (BOM:500325) resumed purchases of Venezuelan crude after a four-year hiatus, taking in several VLCC cargoes from PDVSA for February delivery at between $7.50 and $8 per barrel below Dated Brent on a delivered basis.

Japan Calls to Expand Strategic LNG Stocks. Japan’s power utility companies have called for an increase in strategic LNG stocks to expand the country’s buffer in times of disrupted supply, warning of heightened geopolitical risks amidst conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine.

China Seeks to Cool Down Iron Ore Prices. Iron ore futures traded on the Singapore and Dalian Commodity Exchanges have started to diverge with the former still growing to $133 per metric tonne, with Beijing announcing they would supervise the price to maintain “stable operation” of the market.

Nigeria Mulls Revoking Unused Oil Licenses. Nigeria’s oil regulator is considering revoking unused and expired oil exploration leases, equivalent to some 60% of all prospecting licenses comprising 33 auctioned blocks, in a bid to boost production by managing existing contracts better.

US Majors Defy Calls for Methane Pact. US oil majors Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) didn’t provide any financial aid to the global flaring and methane reduction pact unveiled at Dubai’s COP28 summit, with the former not even signing up for the program’s charter.

Shipping Rates Start to Reflect European ETS. As the European Union is set to introduce the region’s shipping market into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), freight fixtures have started to factor in the costs of emissions into agreed tanker rates for any vessel with deadweight of 5 kt and above.

India Is Set to Depress Petrochemical Markets. India will commission two multi-billion-dollar petrochemical plants in the coming months with Nayara Energy and Hindustan Petroleum Corp's (BOM:500104) Barmer complex bringing the country to the much-coveted point of self-sufficiency, simultaneously aggravating petchem margins.

ERCOT Disputes $12 Billion Price Tag. A watchdog for Texas’ electric grid said that new rules that require ERCOT to set aside a new pool of reserves to react quickly in cases of supply shortfalls have led to $12 billion of additional costs, limiting power generation during hot summer days when solar had a preference.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Early start:




jog on
duc

 

[peter2]

I'll never buy BTC but am happily swing trading MSTR and now BTBT. Sold half of MSTR position. I'll concede that BTC may rally much higher.



Dr Fly has posted other BTC stocks but I could only remember these two. I assume the others are flying high also.

PS: Going without sleep tonight @ducati916 or too excited to sleep with all this overnight action.

 

[ducati916]

I'll never buy BTC but am happily swing trading MSTR and now BTBT. Sold half of MSTR position. I'll concede that BTC may rally much higher.

View attachment 166787

Dr Fly has posted other BTC stocks but I could only remember these two. I assume the others are flying high also.

PS: Going without sleep tonight @ducati916 or too excited to sleep with all this overnight action.

Morning Peter2,

There is a BTC ETF: BITO



Gives exposure if it were sought.

Works well enough, there don't seem to be any issues with it.



Due to having to roll futures, there may be some slippage, but it does not seem particularly bad.

I had a very early start to work. Stocks, up or down never keep me awake these days. Once upon a time, not anymore.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Now we enter into the esoteric:



And what exactly is the QRA?

It is the mix in issuance of short term bills against longer term bonds.



So the QRA is an early signal of fiscal dominance.

If/when fiscal dominance is a thing, you get UST market (extreme) volatility. Of course we have already had 2/3 examples of this and the Fed did step in, with the most recent example, BTFP.

The key to minimising UST dysfunction is to have a lower USD. In 1985 the Japanese came to the rescue with the Plaza Accord:



Well this time it is not Japan, but China:



By fixing the Yuan, the USD weakens:



It also creates an effect in the Gold:Oil ratio



A weak USD ameliorates the selling pressure from primarily Japan and Europe of UST to obtain USD thus roiling the UST markets, where the Treasury needs to sell huge amounts of paper to fund domestic spending.

The USD is the super important chart to watch.

As to BTC:



Apparently this is (part) of the reason for the recent surge higher.

Mr flippe-floppe-flye (this is a copy paste as I was running against the chart limit):

WRONG AGAIN — POLEAXED INTO THE CLOSE​

Dr. Fly Wed Dec 6, 2023 4:14pm EST 3 Comments


I was warned many times about pressing my luck into the month of December. I do believe I even warned myself back in November. But the stupid child in me wanted to believe in fanciful things, praying for Santa Claus to bring me great gifts of joy because I was a good boy in 2023. I went online an professed this belief — was called names in the comments section, such as, but not limited to, “you bastard catamite ****er — you have marked thee top Sir.” I ignored these dire warning and pranced about my office waiting for Santa to bring me joy.

As a matter of fact, the very afternoon I pranced away from my terminal to grab a cup of Joe and something sweet. I had loaded up to the gills with all of my favorite stocks. You should’ve seen me out there — face lit up with excitement and wonderment — thinking about the spoils to come. When I returned back with my cup of Joe I was stunned to learned my entire portfolio had COLLAPSED with the ******* market — swooning lower in aggressive, but methodical, fashion. I did nothing but look at it — remembering the halcyon days of last week — pining to do it over again — wanting to get those higher prices back.

I was lower by 150bps and my losses for the week fast approached 4%. The important backdrop in all of this is — my longer term accounts were UP today and UP for the week, which essentially means I’m trading in moronic fashion, the brain of an elf — an NPC robotically drifting through space and time without internal monologue.

In short, you were right and I was wrong and now I do believe I’ve paid for my transgressions and made the ship right — heavily hedged crossed against some volatility longs and betting against the ******* NASDAQ again as if my face were on fire.

This whole ordeal is nothing new, as I have been publicly blogging in one form or another since 2001. I’ve made great calls and some really bad one’s. The way I am able to sell without regret is I punish myself mentally into thinking that I no longer deserve to own it since my timing was wrong.

Inside of my mind, a conversation like this occurs:

“Nice job f***ed face. You really made an asshole out of yourself here. You know it’s going lower. Pax American is over.”
**** you pal — nothing is over — wait until the closing minutes. We will get it all back, and much more.”
“You will get nothing back and you know it. Sell now or else I’m going to cut your hands off to prevent you from ever trading again.”
“Fine, but **** you.”

No need to seek therapy when I have one of my own right in my head.
GOOD DAY, down 140bps for the day.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

BRICS: UAE Ditches U.S. Dollar for Oil Trade

BRICS: The UAE is in talks with 15 countries and is urging them to settle oil payments in local currencies and not the U.S. dollar.

watcher.guru

With Chinese oil demand slowing down into Q4, OPEC+ production cuts failing to impress the oil market, and non-OPEC supply continuing to grow - with Guyana starting its third FPSO this month - the immediate outlook for oil prices is far from rosy. Both WTI and Brent fell to their lowest readings since June, falling below $69 and $74 per barrel, respectively, before regaining some of those losses on Friday morning. It would require very positive macroeconomic news or a significant supply disruption to break the bearish spell of recent weeks.

Canada to Impose Limits on Oil Emissions. Canada’s Trudeau government unveiled regulations set to cap emissions from the country’s oil and gas sector by using a cap-and-trade system, putting a price on any emissions that go above Ottawa’s plan to curb 2030 emissions to 35-38% of 2019 levels.

Woodside-Santos Merger to Create Australia’s Giant. Australia’s two largest oil and gas companies, Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) and Santos (ASX:STO), are reportedly in preliminary talks to create a $52 billion energy giant, hoping for joint synergies in funding and project development.

Chinese Oil Demand to Peak by 2030. The research unit of China’s national oil company CNPC announced it expects the Asian nation’s oil demand to peak by 2030 at 15.6-16 million b/d, with most of the growth coming from the petrochemical sector which is set to account for 30% of the industry then.

Guyana-Venezuela Conflict Raises Exxon Risks. Venezuela pledged to annex the disputed Essequibo region after its December 3 referendum, with President Maduro directing state-owned oil companies to explore the oil of the region, prompting the US to announce military drills with Guyana.

Shell Won't Give Up on Nigeria. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) might invest up to $6 billion after Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu held talks with the company’s top representatives, most notably eyeing an “imminent” $5 billion investment in the offshore Bonga North oil project.

MPOG Oil Spill Continues to Hinder Output. The US Coast Guard found an oil sheen west of the clean-up area of the Main Pass Oil Gathering pipeline oil spill that shut in 3% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, raising risks of further leakage in the Mississippi River delta.

ExxonMobil and Chevron Ramp Up Project Spending. US major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) upgraded its annual project spending target rate to $22-27 billion through 2027, rising 5% per year, whilst rival major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) upped its 2024 budget by 11% year-over-year to $18.5-19.5 billion.

Sale of TMX Pipeline Gets Delayed Further. This week’s regulatory ruling denying the use of a smaller diameter pipeline in a 1.4-mile section of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline in British Columbia might delay its launch by 60 days, postponing the government’s sale of the asset along the way.

Norway Oilmen Urge Government to Drill More. The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate called on oil companies to leave “no stone unturned” in developing the country’s vast gas resources, saying there’s at least 860 bcm of untapped tight-reservoir deposits that might require longer lead times.

Buyers Line Up for Shell’s Singapore Divestment. Energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) has shortlisted four companies including global trading house Vitol and China’s state-controlled CNOOC as well as two smaller Chinese chemical firms as bidders for its 237,000 b/d Bukom refinery in Singapore.

US Gasoline Price Plunge Before Christmas. US gasoline prices continue their decline as the national average dropped to $3.185 per gallon as of Friday, the lowest since January, and might fall below the $3 per gallon threshold by Christmas for the first time since 2021.

Nuclear Keeps on Losing Ground in 2023. The share of nuclear power generation declined 4% year-over-year in 2022, with the 2,546 TWh generation tally accounting for only 9.2% of global electricity output, the lowest figure since the early 1980s.

EU Allows Member States to Ban Russian Gas. According to the Financial Times, the European Union is considering giving member states the discretionary right to halt gas imports from Russia and Belarus, moving away from the idea of implementing an outright ban on Russian gas.

Liquidity:





The (potential) attacks on the USD are coming fast and from all directions. This is a strategy that has been many years in the making.

There simply has not been enough (any) analysis done by the mainstream to this. If it is being done at all, it is being done very quietly behind closed doors, not for public consumption. Markets are simply not pricing in this hugely inflationary variable.

The markets are pricing in Fed cuts to the FFR.

Interesting that China is aiding the US in weakening the USD. Why?

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @ducati916

A very interesting read this morning. I've been looking at Oil and the $USD as a pivot for my thinking on macroeconomica ( did he say harmonica or macroeconomica?) and this all makes sense. Although ... I believe the USA has the ability to continue its hegemony and this alone will protect the $USD.



gg