Dow Jones technical analysis

[Kimosabi]

Re: DOW Analysis

This is propaganda and Bullsh1t...

A chief goal of any rescue would be to help the companies regain or keep triple-A credit ratings, which are seen as vital to their business.

Where are they going to get the money from?

The banks are too scared to lend to each other, why would they fork out $1 Trillion dollars to Bond Insurers who are sitting on massive losses?

America isn't Zimbabwe yet, $1 Trillion is still a LOT of Money...

 

[Whiskers]

Re: DOW Analysis

This is propaganda and Bullsh1t...



Where are they going to get the money from?

The banks are too scared to lend to each other, why would they fork out $1 Trillion dollars to Bond Insurers who are sitting on massive losses?

America isn't Zimbabwe yet, $1 Trillion is still a LOT of Money...

I think it is a case of averting pending losses and mitigating future losses. The alternative to not helping support them is a chain reaction of credit rating down-grades limiting future lending and effectively devaluing their stock and... well who knows where it might end. It is critical to the banks present standing to save the bond insurers.

It's a case of damned if they do and double damned if they don't. Sort of like an unholy alliance. I guess it's sort of natural justice coming back to bite those at or near the cause of the trouble.

The whole thing is dependant on getting those banks that are not too badly affected yet to understand that if they don't chip in the 'cancer' will get them pretty soon too.

I would be surprised if there isn't an announcement before the market on monday.

 

[MR.]

Re: DOW Analysis

As much as I have read over the past days, I am no wiser.
Lets just flip a coin.

History
The DOW between approx 1930 and 1953 was flat line. The same between approx 1965 and 1982.
On the 19th October 1987 the DOW dropped 22.6% from 2246 down to 1738. A year earlier the Dow was about 1800. So the DOW retraced back one year. This 22% fall was after slowly dropping in the week/s prior similar to now.

But the DOW is already back to where it was one year ago and is approx 12% up over 2 years.

The DOW (or the US) this time around “still” has not dropped any more than a few percent in a day. Will they panick at sometime in the near future? .... The world is watching! ..... I don't know the stats but arn't people in more debt than ever? Isn't Bush's hand out to low and medium incomes (in 6 months) going to just go towards debt?

 

[wayneL]

Re: DOW Analysis

History
The DOW between approx 1930 and 1953 was flat line. The same between approx 1965 and 1982.

Better take another look.

 

[MR.]

Re: DOW Analysis

Better take another look.

"Flat line" as I am referring, the market was approx at the same value at these dates.

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

Transports green again today , DJIA plunged , they're still shaking I'd say .......

It did recover around 200 points rather quickly , short squeeze ???

DJT below .

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

More bad news is emerging in after-hours stock trading with Google stocks down over 8% after the close after the company announced earnings, missing their profit and sales estimates. The news will weigh on tech stocks in Asia. This comes in the wake of the ratings warning for MBIA. Also getting a second look this afternoon are comments earlier today from the FDIC about the looming "hundreds of thousands" of foreclosures and that $600 bln of "prime" borrowers, not just subprime, have taken mortgages due to be reset and pressuring higher payments.

 

[alankew]

Re: DOW Analysis

This might help steady the fort a bit http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWNAS894220080201
and this will certainly add some interest here on Monday http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL0143512520080201

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

Transports are green again .

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

DRYS US listed drybulk mover tripled its profits , up 5% pre market .

Let's see transports green again , need some bottoming moves and a few exits in the financials of the 500 .

 

[josjes]

Re: DOW Analysis

Do you have historical pattern or proof for past bear markets that confirms the theory that a sign of bear market is ending is a downside non-confirmation between Dow and Trannies ? i.e. Dow falls to lower low, but Trannies fail to confirm with lower lows. If this is a sign for a bear market reversal and bull market signal then perhaps it will make things a lot easier.

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

U of Mich Sentiment Down to 69.6

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

Do you have historical pattern or proof for past bear markets that confirms the theory that a sign of bear market is ending is a downside non-confirmation between Dow and Trannies ? i.e. Dow falls to lower low, but Trannies fail to confirm with lower lows. If this is a sign for a bear market reversal and bull market signal then perhaps it will make things a lot easier.

I don't care for theories , but twenty odd years of practical seems to be the go , transport leads the way . It's only just started to come back , but , more importantly it shows that transport has managed to wear $100 oil .
There's always growth even when there's zero growth .

It goes up , it goes down , the herd get's washed of cash , some get to keep it .

What did Nick say ? ........ " rinse and spin , now hung out to ....... "

The indexes are due some reratings too , bit of shuffling .

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

I'm outa here.. time for bed... the Mich sentiment index slumps to a 16 year low.. 69.6 against 77 expected... and the US rallys.. maybe a bout of plauge and pestilence will restore full confidence in their economy??? Sheeeeesh
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

I can only see the Nadaq Trans index , Nas. Insurance Index and the Nas. Telecom Index fluttering a bit . The NYSE Health index moving up .... flight to safety in security stocks again .

Night but .......

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: DOW Analysis

I'm outa here.. time for bed... the Mich sentiment index slumps to a 16 year low.. 69.6 against 77 expected... and the US rallys.. maybe a bout of plauge and pestilence will restore full confidence in their economy??? Sheeeeesh
Cheers
............Kauri

Looks like a partial gap fill and a failure at the swing lows to me.

I think people are wary of shorting into a forced and stacked market, as I alluded to a few weeks back. You just don't know if the fed is buying the crap out of everything at the moment.

A lot of people are still smarting from Ben's previous behaviour at the teddy bear picnic.

What traders need is an indication that failing companies wont be handed money. Until that happens, in a lot of ways, it's too dangerous being short in the US.

Got no idea why anyone would be buying anything out there atm, apart from diamonds in the rough. It's akin to sleeping with a ***** without protection IMO.

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

I think they should let the overstretched fail and bail out the bond insurers .

They are the markets imperative to continuance .

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: DOW Analysis

I think they should let the overstretched fail and bail out the bond insurers .

They are the markets imperative to continuance .

The funny thing is, it appears the failures have been the ones trying to bail out the bond insurers. I guess birds of a feather and all that, but **** attracts flies!

I think I have worked out the CDO and sub prime profit and business formula:

Personally, I think Citigroup and the like could do well in the underpants trade. After all, most of the management were complete cocks and arseholes, so they should at least know what is needed.

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

Crack me up Chops .

keyboard get's a Stella wash

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: DOW Analysis



Hi folks,

DOW ..... looking at the time cycles ahead, we can expect more negativity
in July, September and October 2008, in particular ...

21-25072008 ..... 2 significant and negative cycles here

11-12092008 ..... 3 significant and negative cycles here

06-08102008 ..... 4 time cycles = volatile trading ???

20-24102008 ..... significant and negative cycle expected

27102008 ..... aggressive and positive cycle in play

happy days

paul



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