Dow Jones technical analysis

[sam76]

Re: DOW Analysis

Futures looking good for a rebound on the Dow.

FUTURES
VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE
Dow 13,544.00 94.00 0.70

 

[bean]

Re: DOW Analysis

A further update article re DOW THEORY - it show other sectors of the US markets all not confirming.
http://[URL="http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm"]www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm[/URL]

So we know where the DOW is going and its got some making up to do

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

Is that a head and shoulder pattern forming ........... ?

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: DOW Analysis

Does now!

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

S&P looks the same to me and I won't mention the cleavage mention

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

Tonight G+S will come out with a good report card which will probably give the US the excuse it needs to pump up the market, data due tonight notwithstanding, but B+S and MS cards on weds and thurs may need a bit more of a creative spin to justify a rally??
:alcohol: = home-made Baileys.. works ffor me..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Real1ty]

Re: DOW Analysis

Big day for the DOW today and for us tomorrow

Stocks set for higher open
Futures point higher, boosted by strength in tech; investors await earnings from Bear Stearns.

December 20 2007: 4:47 AM EST


LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures rose Thursday as investors eyed solid results in the tech sector and awaited earnings from Wall Street firm Bear Stearns and a batch of economic readings.

At 4:30 a.m. ET, Nasdaq futures were stronger, boosted by solid results from Oracle. S&P futures also were narrowly higher, suggesting a positive open on Wall Street.

But if the past sessions are any indicator, optimism could easily evaporate. Stocks have gyrated recently on credit concerns. On Wednesday, the major gauges finished the session mixed after a volatile day of trading.

Investors are bracing for earnings from Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), which is slated to report its first ever quarterly loss before the market open. The results come a day after Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) announced an additional $5.7 billion writedown for the fourth quarter, bringing its losses on mortgage-related securities to $9.4 billion.

A slew of economic releases are due, including the government's final reading on third-quarter gross domestic product at 8:30 a.m. ET. A report on leading economic indicators comes after the market open, as does the Philadelphia Fed index, a regional manufacturing survey.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/20/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2007122004

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

Any takers on the US unemployment numbers ?


I'll stick my hand up for 332K .

 

[Real1ty]

Re: DOW Analysis

Bear Stearns Posts Loss After Subprime Writedowns (Update1)

By Yalman Onaran

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos., the second- biggest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, reported its first loss as a public company after writedowns for subprime-related investments and a drop in fixed-income trading revenue.

The fourth-quarter loss of $854 million, or $6.91 a share, in the three months ended Nov. 30 compared with net income of $563 million, or $4, a year earlier, the New York-based firm said today in a statement. The loss was almost four times wider than the average estimate of $1.82 a share from 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Bear Stearns, led by Chief Executive Officer James ``Jimmy'' Cayne, said it would take a $1.9 billion writedown on subprime mortgages, more than the $1.2 billion the firm forecast last month. While the cost was smaller than at Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co., Bear Stearns slumped 44 percent this year in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, more than its New York-based rivals as the firm derives about half its revenue from fixed income.

``Their problem is they're not as diversified,'' said Tom Jalics, an analyst at National City Bank in Cleveland, who helps manage $34 billion, including Bear Stearns shares. ``They don't have a big overseas presence, big investment banking or equities presence. They're kind of a bond shop.''

Bear Stearns, which first sold shares to the public in 1985, helped trigger this year's crash in the market for home loans to people with poor credit after two of its hedge funds collapsed in July. About 30 percent of the firm's fixed-income revenue comes from mortgages and related securities, according to estimates from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Brad Hintz.

Revenue Wiped Out

The firm doesn't provide a breakdown for mortgage-related revenue.

The fourth-quarter writedown wiped out the firm's revenue in debt sales and trading. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the No. 1 underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds this year, reported $860 million of fixed-income revenue in the fourth quarter. Half of Lehman's 2007 revenue came from outside the U.S. That ratio has been lower than 20 percent for Bear Stearns.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the largest securities firm by market value, reported record fourth-quarter earnings of $3.22 billion. Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest, reported a loss of $3.56 billion yesterday, its first since going public in 1986. Merrill Lynch & Co., the third-largest, publishes results next month. All the firms are based in New York.

Waiting for Recession

Bear Stearns, the fifth-largest securities firm, said fourth-quarter revenue from equity sales and trading at dropped 11 percent to $384 million. Investment-banking fees fell 44 percent to $205 million. Clearing, which includes providing brokerage services for hedge funds, advanced 2 percent to $276 million.

Bear Stearns advised on $47 billion of takeovers in the quarter, triple the amount a year earlier, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The firm underwrote $7.3 billion of U.S. bonds, 17 percent less than last year. It managed $1.18 billion of equity offerings, a 28 percent decrease.

Bond shops like Bear Stearns would benefit from a possible a U.S. recession next year, Sanford Bernstein's Hintz said. During a recession, traditional investment banking activities such as mergers slow down to a halt, while interest rate cuts by central banks boost the price of bonds.

Succession

Because Bear Stearns relies less on investment banking and more on fixed income trading, it could benefit from an economic contraction, Hintz said.

Bear Stearns closed the two hedge funds that blew up and Cayne ousted his co-president, Warren Spector, whom investors considered the heir-apparent. The share price has suffered in part because there's no clear succession plan for the 73-year- old Cayne, said National City's Jalics.

``They've got a myriad of problems,'' Jalics said. ``On the asset management side, they've got reputational risk issues because of the funds that blew up. They're a bond shop so they have mortgage-related concerns. And all the negative stories about leadership, that's probably not a positive.''

Well there is the first piece of tonights puzzle.

Sorry ithatheekret, i can't pick if a stock will go up or down atm, would have no chance with unemployment numbers

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: DOW Analysis

Well the futures like it. They must be sado-masochists over there.

 

[dhukka]

Re: DOW Analysis

Any takers on the US unemployment numbers ?


I'll stick my hand up for 332K .

346k that 4 week moving average is ticking up

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

yep .

There's triple and quadruple witching across some of the bourses I think too .

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

Both bad and good news are eyed in early trading this morning with good news including the report earlier this morning that Bear Stearns has upgraded the financial sector from underweight to overweight. Wells Fargo stocks are up after their earnings report and so is Sun Microsystem stock. However, AMBAC has taken a $3.5 bln hit and stocks have dropped 15%. Intel stocks dropped after the NY close yesterday on a miss in EPS, with its stock down 15% as well. JP Morgan stock is also lower after their earnings report. Net-net however, the bears are in control with DJIA futures posting close to triple digit losses this morning which remains bearish for USD/JPY and JPY crosses.

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

Dow... with tonight so far... and with the time routine projections (in pretty pink) in the bottom window....
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: DOW Analysis

What's that blue rectangle ? ........ the escape hatch

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

What's that blue rectangle ? ........ the escape hatch

the hole in the ozone layer... otherwise known as Miners auto wave target calc price/time routine... or for short.. Miners auto wave target calc price/time routine

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Yeti]

Re: DOW Analysis

Ithatheekret first mentioned a head-and-shoulders earlier in this thread. Looks like the pattern was confirmed when the DOW went below 12700 and the target now would be 11200-ish

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

I wonder if it was/is just a short covering rally coming into the U.S long weekend...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Re: DOW Analysis

and vindicator suggests a turn may be around the corner..so stop now trailed at each prev bars high...

 

[wayneL]

Re: DOW Analysis

and vindicator suggests a turn may be around the corner..so stop now trailed at each prev bars high...

Turning into a nice trade m8

Breaking yesterdays LOD now. (SP is anyway)