Dow Jones technical analysis

TheAbyss · 24 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

TheAbyss said:
Wow. Great call Wayne. I expected to be greeted with a + 400 pt fall in the dow last night.

Salvation, for now at least. The US banks are all up double digits from their lows this morning in the US

1. Banks, New York Regulator Meet on Bond Insurer Rescue
2. Dow bounced off 12070 3 times last night 3rd time was a sprinboard worth > 500 pts due to the bond rescue

Were the volumes (2.7 bunits) enough to to stave off greater falls in the short term in your view Wayne?

Need to see at least another 600 - 800 pts lift yet to be in a safer place however it is a great revival from the -300 points earlier. Short covering was joined by buying today in the US so have we seen a bottom? The bonds have reversed also.

Where to from here?

Sorry edit to pt 2, Dow bounced off 11700 not 12070.

explod · 24 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
Crazy night!!:taz:

From our close last night

rallied 150pts
tanked 400pts
rallied 650pts!!!!!!!!

Still don't believe my eyes!:bs:

This amount of volatility may be the prelude to the big tank. As it gets going fear will take it straight through long term support of 10,000 to an overshoot of 7,500 where it may well stay for many years due to thier massive debt and virtually no onshore GDP.

But I only say maybe.

Gundini · 24 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

TheAbyss said:
632 pt swing at close. Dow up 294. $15 B bailout to the bond insurers.

I can see the headlines in 48 hours from now, "15 billion not enough, dow plunges on recession fears. Rally over?"

I am baffled....

How come all is suddenly back on track in the States...

How do you rally 600 points in 3 hours?

How many people lost on shorts?

The Bull does have powerful friends doesn't he...

Kauri · 25 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

After this morning's jobless claims report (very strong at 301k) one has to believe that Bernanke has his head firmly planted between his legs on discovering the news that the vicious death spiral trade on Monday was caused by a rogue equity futures trader at SocGen - sacre plurry bleu. The entire situation this week along with the upcoming data into next week (the FOMC will see next Friday's payroll report) and the unknown extent of equity index recoveries will determine how much they will cut - if at all.
The death spiral trade which has been under way for over 4 weeks has clearly found a bottom - and interestingly it was at the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2002-2007 on the monthly charts for both Nasdaq indices as well as the S&P (and almost the Dow). The recovery trade now targets the scene of the crime (the breakdown) of the broken triple bottom on the weeklies of the S&P - 1380. For today the first support area will be the overnight low at 1333.50, with a better line in the sand being 1325. Below that the market is in trouble if it can penetrate 1318 and especially 1311. There is value up through about 1361, but above that it drops off fairly quickly due to rouge tractors trundling downhill with Japanese housewives clutching the wheel aiming squarely for the Hills hoist,,, Mon Dieu..
Toot sweet
.............Kauri

Kauri · 25 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Dow Jones is reporting that a tentative deal on a stimulus package has been reached..... Tokyo traders may be short following selling last night on rumors that the proposed monoline bond insurance bailout was unlikely to succeed.

Struggling to think
.............Kauri :alcohol:

BIG BWACULL · 25 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

All i have to say is :bier::drink::alcohol:
Just finished a twenty hour stint doin the POLICE (Sting and that) gig at Telstra Stadium (Now ANZ Stadium) and Oh sorry :topic :bekloppt:
CHEERS

Kauri · 25 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

The market is still speculating whether the Fed knew of the Soc Gen losses and the reason behind the equity market sell-off before it cut rates on Tuesday. This has dampened rate cut expectations, sending US ten-yr bond yields higher above 3.62% this morning. Some have argued that the Fed would have cut rates anyway. Some also argue that there is no reason for another 50 bp to follow next week, particularly with a stimulus package now on the horizon.
Traders are also noting that Fitch has downgraded bond insurer SCA and its subsidiaries, raising concerns over the bond insurer sector again and adding to the retreat in the stock market, untill it rises again..

50/50
..........Kauri

Kauri · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

grabbed some shorts on the 5min
Cheers
............Kauri

Kauri · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Kauri said:
grabbed some shorts on the 5min
Cheers
............Kauri

and stop to a tad better thanB/E.... time for some vino now...
Cheers
...........Kauri
P.S good old quant fund rumours...

Kauri · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Kauri said:
and stop to a tad better thanB/E.... time for some vino now...
Cheers
...........Kauri
P.S good old quant fund rumours...

and out at B/E... too wild for me tonight...
incidentally... "they" hint a european bank having funding issues..
a) it is Belgian/Dutch
b) it is down 10% odd
c) it is...
Cheers
...........Kauri

ithatheekret · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Stop Fortis Ing about :

ithatheekret · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Here we go Kauri 1300 breach 1290 comin' up, get ready to see 8's

ithatheekret · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Got this funny feeling it won't be a good bank day tomorrow .

ithatheekret · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Got half a bag of 1228's , 1 x 12279

I wish I had brakes like that on the tractor .

ithatheekret · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

big volume pushing 12320 back , (310 was f/v )

Kauri · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

ithatheekret said:
big volume pushing 12320 back , (310 was f/v )

The idea was right.. the direction was right.. just the timing a tad astray...
Cheers
..........Kauri

ithatheekret · 26 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

ithatheekret said:
Got this funny feeling it won't be a good bank day tomorrow .

Very tired then meant next week , get to wave the flag Monday too .

Kimosabi · 27 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

ithatheekret said:
Very tired then meant next week , get to wave the flag Monday too .

I think it's going to be real ugly next week.

Two Bond Insurers have "guaranteed buyers against losses on more than $1 trillion of bonds"

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/24/business/24bonds.html

The great credit purge continues...

Miner · 27 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

ithatheekret said:
Very tired then meant next week , get to wave the flag Monday too .

Dow has shed again. Relax as market will be closed on Monday.
So on Tuesday it will be reflecting on Monday DOW correction.
Regards

Whiskers · 27 January 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Kimosabi said:
I think it's going to be real ugly next week.

Two Bond Insurers have "guaranteed buyers against losses on more than $1 trillion of bonds"

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/24/business/24bonds.html

The great credit purge continues...

I'm not too concerned Kimosabi.

They will sort out an arrangement pretty quickly because it is in the banks best interests to avoid credit rating downgrades that would trigger the situation spiralling out of control.

A chief goal of any rescue would be to help the companies regain or keep triple-A credit ratings, which are seen as vital to their business.

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