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Even Kev acknowledges if a conflict breaks out over Taiwan and China take on the U.S for control of the Pacific, it leaves Australia in a precarious position.
au.news.yahoo.com
"The balance of power continues to change in China’s favour, both militarily and economically, so that shifts this dynamic," he told the ABC's 7.30 program on Wednesday night.
Mr Rudd, who has recently completed postdoctoral research on Chinese leader Xi Jinping, believes it will take years for him to force the issue.
"Xi Jinping has his own timetable in his head for returning Taiwan to Chinese national sovereignty, not any time soon, but my guestimate is late 2020s, early 2030s," he said.
If and when that happens, Australia will be caught in an increasingly troubling position as US-China relations deteriorate further.
"We do not have as yet any effective mechanism to manage these impending crises in the US-China relationship," Mr Rudd warned.
Taiwan is arguably the most sensitive and important issue when it comes to China's relationship with the United States. Washington has no formal diplomatic ties with Taipei, but is Taiwan's most important international backer and arms supplier.
"In most of the war gaming which has been done so far — and these are desktop exercises by and large — if you look at what various US officials have said off the record and partly reported in the American media, the Chinese at this stage win most of the time," he told 7.30.
Additionally, Japan – no stranger to war with China – could become involved in a conflict over Taiwan.
"Japan is indicating it would now see itself potentially involved and there is a logic to that," Mr Rudd explained.
"[A] Chinese pre-emptive strike to try to take out American forces probably in Guam, but also in Okinawa, and that brings Japan in."
'China wins': Kevin Rudd's daunting warning if conflict breaks out
The former prime minister has outlined when he thinks China will move on Taiwan – and how it could play out.
Mr Rudd, who has recently completed postdoctoral research on Chinese leader Xi Jinping, believes it will take years for him to force the issue.
"Xi Jinping has his own timetable in his head for returning Taiwan to Chinese national sovereignty, not any time soon, but my guestimate is late 2020s, early 2030s," he said.
If and when that happens, Australia will be caught in an increasingly troubling position as US-China relations deteriorate further.
"We do not have as yet any effective mechanism to manage these impending crises in the US-China relationship," Mr Rudd warned.
Taiwan is arguably the most sensitive and important issue when it comes to China's relationship with the United States. Washington has no formal diplomatic ties with Taipei, but is Taiwan's most important international backer and arms supplier.
'China at this stage wins most of the time'
The increasingly autocratic Chinese government wants to expel US influence from the Pacific and, if push comes to shove, China could very well win a military conflict in the region, Mr Rudd claimed."In most of the war gaming which has been done so far — and these are desktop exercises by and large — if you look at what various US officials have said off the record and partly reported in the American media, the Chinese at this stage win most of the time," he told 7.30.
Additionally, Japan – no stranger to war with China – could become involved in a conflict over Taiwan.
"Japan is indicating it would now see itself potentially involved and there is a logic to that," Mr Rudd explained.
"[A] Chinese pre-emptive strike to try to take out American forces probably in Guam, but also in Okinawa, and that brings Japan in."
