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David Hunter Market Collapse Prophecy

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My lead macro market guru is getting a bit wobbly as to timing in his commentary it seems to me. He no longer mentions Labor Day in the U.S as a market turning point. That's good because it's only a few days away! (Sept 7) and we haven't even had the 'melt-up' yet. A more vague 2021 date is now being used to milestone the global deflationary bust along with the qualifier "high probability". I still feel a lot more relaxed with a cash cushion since taking onboard his views. Still a fanboi.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·Sep 1
"I continue to forecast a deflationary bust in 2021 but we may see some pick-up in inflation indicators near-term as oil & grain prices rise in coming weeks. Energy, financial & industrial stocks are likely beneficiaries if this occurs.
"My forecasts are always probability based but I I think a bust in 2021 is a high probability event."
 

I think he'll be correct.

He just needs to add a year each time his last prediction is invalidated. Then he'll be a hero.

Nobody can predict the absolute high or low on a consistent basis. Nobody I know of anyway.
 
Dean Sawatzky
@dean_sawatzky
·2h
Hi David. Love your work and the podcasts you’ve been on in the recent past. Do you think the swoon of the past few days is the start of the downturn or is there more upside in stocks - to the highs at S&P 4000+?


David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·1h
My forecast hasn't changed. I am still calling for a melt-up to S&P 4200-4500 before the election.
 


David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·22m

The melt-up is beginning. October will be strong. Should see S&P to 4500, DJIA to 36,000 & Nasdaq to 15,000 in 4th qtr. We will also see gold to $2300-$2500 & silver to $35-$36. GDX to $55, GDXJ to $100, SIL to $75, SILJ to $30. Oil to $50-$55. T-bonds beginning a correction.
 
finicky said:
The melt-up is beginning. October will be strong. Should see S&P to 4500
Click to expand...
I'm not convinced about gold and oil but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the US stock indices go up like that.

My thinking is along the lines of a rally being orchestrated in an attempt to influence the election or at least profit from it. That's a but conspiracy theory like but I think it's plausible - we're talking about the US Presidential election here not the local council etc.
 
Only trouble with that conspiracy theory is that the money would prefer a crash to ensure Trump is not re-elected,from the usual suspects in the US a la Soros and silicon valley giants to Chinese feds.
But thankfully, markets have a life on their on, especially with billions of stimulus.
 

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·9h

I continue to believe that October is going to be a big turnaround month for both the stock market and the precious metals. Both are set up for big reversals upward. Could be a very historic month for the markets.

Elena Okhonko
@vzdoh
·9h

Replying to
@DaveHcontrarian

BTW August rally was quite historic!



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·9h

August was a nice rally. I expect the October rally to be truly historic.
 
My guru keeps climbing out on a limb. Hope he's right - but imagine the violence of antifa (the anti-fascists, lol) and BLM (defenders of oppressed criminals and exponents of burn loot murder and mayhem) - if he is right.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·
"I don't expect Biden to be President. Trump will prevail in the courts due to massive voter fraud.The media is doing all they can to convince us that the election is over & Biden is President-elect.Don't fall for it.This election is far from over. It will be decided in the courts"
 

These people are more dangerous than any virus.
 
Your guru was a bit off there but his recent melt up comments and interview on Crux investor is very good and more plausible.

 
My guru speaks, sit on your cushions.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

All systems go for the metals. Gold poised to run to $2500 & silver to $45 in the 1st Qtr.The miners will follow suit with GDX headed for $55,GDXJ $100,SIL $75 & SILJ $30.After big gains in the 2nd & 3rd Qtr,metals & miners consolidated those gains for 4 mos. Next upleg has begun

1:10 AM · Jan 5, 2021
 
Hind sight is a wonderful thing. I just found this thread about the coming collapse... Not to knock the OP but these guys are a dime a dozen and will eventually get it right when they keep adding months and years to their predictions. I think they are more like investment teachers. They suck at actual investing and are trying to bank on their prediction finally "paying off", and then they can ride the talk show circuit for a year or so...

I read a good Forbes article recently on the eight people that predicted the GFC... I liked his argument in that he says none of them actually predicted anything other than to state simple economic theory, i.e. debt loads got too high and no one could pay them back. As opposed to actually predicting the collapse.

If anything then I should get credit for predicting the GFC first. I saw it coming in 2004, a year before any of the other shonks did. ;-)
 
The GFC started to manifest in mid to late 2007 depending on what you focus on: housing, stock market.
When someone is predicting a rare global event I am prepared to forgive him timing error. Peter Schiff was clearly and bravely predicting the housing and stock market collapse but was a year or two early from memory. He has also admitted that gold didn't prove the immediate save haven he expected at the time and nor did he expect that the governments and central banks would be able to reflate so quickly and effectively. David Hunter's timing so far sucks but he will still have done me and others a service if a global bust happens this year or next because he has been convincing enough to make me prepare.
 
The main difference this time is, the debt isn't private sector, in reality it is public sector debt.
Which in recent history has been kept low, this time it is being used as a shock absorber, how they sort out the eventual fallout will be interesting. But I do think they have thought about it, so let's see what happens, it really is a massive socialist stimulus injection to keep the capitalist machine lubricated.
Just my thoughts
 

I liken it to the risk of a building catching fire. We know that it's possible and we know that fires do happen and so we have smoke detectors in buildings and we have fire brigades.

In the meantime though we carry on living as normal, we don't spend our time fretting about the small possibility of a fire. Only if the alarm sounds or we smell smoke do we become concerned and in that case we take it extremely seriously until proven that it's a false alarm.

Same with the markets. We know that major declines do occur and should I see the signs of one then I'll take it extremely seriously. In the meantime, make sure the alarm works, know what it sounds like and what you'll do if it goes off but party on so long as it's not sounding.
 
finicky said:
The GFC started to manifest in mid to late 2007 depending on what you focus on:
Click to expand...
I recall paying attention to a website that was tracking the number of mortgage lenders failing and that was months before it hit the headlines.

So yes, the alarm was well and truly sounding at that point.
 
finicky said:
David Hunter's timing so far sucks but he will still have done me and others a service if a global bust happens this year or next because he has been convincing enough to make me prepare.
Click to expand...
Take more water out of the dam than the annual inflow and I can tell you with 100% certainty that it will run dry.

No chance I'll get the exact date right too far in advance though since even though the situation is known to be unsustainable, there's still unknowns with short term weather patterns and so on.

Same with anything financial. Eg the pandemic will have brought unstuck quite a lot of things that were doomed anyway but would have carried on for some years yet had it (the pandemic) not occurred.

There's always going to be those short term influences that making the timing hard to predict even if the underlying situation is readily apparent.
 
A quote I read a long time ago, well before the GFC, stated that when you look at your shares and think I wouldn't buy them at this price, it is time to worry. That was the case before the GFC, share prices were stupid.
So do you have a lot of shares in your portfolio that you think are at stupidly high prices? I don't.
But hey I've been wrong before and if it all turns to manure everything gets hit, but at this point in time with massive injections of stimulus and infrastructure spending, why will it collapse? After all it is only money.
As smurf said ride the wave and try to work out when it breaks.
 
Although timing may be off from your prediction, I think what you said is likely to be the eventual outcome, unfortunately. I agree with all of the above except for one point about businesses.

I don't know of many businesses that have survived through support... what support ? Yes there is some support for housing as always in Australia, which in turn supports construction, real estate and few other businesses such as Building Materials companies (Disclosure: I hold Building Materials company CSR Ltd in Speculative Stock Portfolio which has done well as a result). But most businesses had to fend for themselves through lock-downs and virus fears and some even went out of business such as Virgin Airlines and countless small businesses that couldn't afford to keep their doors open.

Individuals however did get support in terms of Job (S/K) eek/per schemes including a huge pay rise for the Unemployed / Dole recipients.
 
FWIW There's a few "black box" type indicators I keep a watch on so far as indices are concerned. Nothing fancy, just sites which compile multiple technical indicators into a single number and things like that.

The S&P500 looks healthy but there's a few alarm bells ringing so far as the ASX200 is concerned.

I don't trade directly based on that, it's just background information, but still.
 
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