David Hunter Market Collapse Prophecy

[aus_trader]

FWIW There's a few "black box" type indicators I keep a watch on so far as indices are concerned. Nothing fancy, just sites which compile multiple technical indicators into a single number and things like that.

The S&P500 looks healthy but there's a few alarm bells ringing so far as the ASX200 is concerned.

I don't trade directly based on that, it's just background information, but still.

What's wrong with ASX200 ?

 

[qldfrog]

What's wrong with ASX200 ?

Overvalued vs the US as we are in an actual economic war with our best customer.
How do you think it will ends

 

[qldfrog]

Although timing may be off from your prediction, I think what you said is likely to be the eventual outcome, unfortunately. I agree with all of the above except for one point about businesses.

I don't know of many businesses that have survived through support... what support ? Yes there is some support for housing as always in Australia, which in turn supports construction, real estate and few other businesses such as Building Materials companies (Disclosure: I hold Building Materials company CSR Ltd in Speculative Stock Portfolio which has done well as a result). But most businesses had to fend for themselves through lock-downs and virus fears and some even went out of business such as Virgin Airlines and countless small businesses that couldn't afford to keep their doors open.

Individuals however did get support in terms of Job (S/K) eek/per schemes including a huge pay rise for the Unemployed / Dole recipients.

Jobkeeper is a company support as is the cash flow incentive of last year.
Will it be sufficient? I doubt it
My own company a case in point.I was in a startup in China.money flowing from China into my oz Pty Ltd then covid19 happened.
By jan 2020, i basically was unable to travel back and forth.still ongoing.company in China carries on.here well i am in a zombie company mode.so either i restart a business from scratch or close.
Why would i restart? The economics did not kill it, the gov. decisions did.And now the economic war.
I try to save the shell and reorient but motivation is low, red tape increasing seriously each year, why bother...not worth the effort here..
So yes australian Gov supports the companies he is killing but just creating zombies by the 1000s.
Do not expect a restart.once jobkeeper is over they will close.at least,it will be orderly.

 

[aus_trader]

Jobkeeper is a company support as is the cash flow incentive of last year.
Will it be sufficient? I doubt it
My own company a case in point.I was in a startup in China.money flowing from China into my oz Pty Ltd then covid19 happened.
By jan 2020, i basically was unable to travel back and forth.still ongoing.company in China carries on.here well i am in a zombie company mode.so either i restart a business from scratch or close.
Why would i restart? The economics did not kill it, the gov. decisions did.And now the economic war.
I try to save the shell and reorient but motivation is low, red tape increasing seriously each year, why bother...not worth the effort here..
So yes australian Gov supports the companies he is killing but just creating zombies by the 1000s.
Do not expect a restart.once jobkeeper is over they will close.at least,it will be orderly.

You've said it @qldfrog , that is the same view I have of the situation. Things seem to be fine at the surface level:

• house prices going through the roof
• stock prices doing OK (I am glad as I have exposure)
• China related stocks going through the roof (BHP, FMG), so I think all that talk in the media about tensions with the best trading buddy bust be made up BS !
• Anyone who had a job before Covid doing fine and living as normal on Job S/Peaker schemes or working from home (thank God (OK Govt) for preventing masses out onto the street and into homelessness that would've made GFC situation in the US look like a walk in the park)
• Chronic Unemployed/Dole generations living it up on their promotions (if they know how to re-apply under the appropriate scheme and re-jig the system for a massive pay rise . Oh I shouldn't have said that )

So looks like if we had a blip followed by a massive boom during the GFC, we might not even have a blip during this boom Australia ?

What a LUCKY country

 

[finicky]

Gold's up ?
My guru speaks:


David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

It is amazing to see so many great set-ups this late in a bull cycle.The Nasdaq, tech stocks, gold & T-bonds are all very oversold & at important inflection points.All should have great runs just ahead. Nasdaq to 17,000, gold to 2500 & the 10yr to .95%. Wow, just wow! Historical.

2:38 PM · Mar 9, 2021

 

[joeno]

Speculative frenzy partly created by irresponsible amateurish policies (the US fed) with irreverence to fundamentals. A lot of money to be made? Sure. Will it keep going up? Maybe. But based on wishful thinking. Not cashflows.

 

[Porper]

Gold's up ?
My guru speaks:

View attachment 121104
David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

It is amazing to see so many great set-ups this late in a bull cycle.The Nasdaq, tech stocks, gold & T-bonds are all very oversold & at important inflection points.All should have great runs just ahead. Nasdaq to 17,000, gold to 2500 & the 10yr to .95%. Wow, just wow! Historical.

2:38 PM · Mar 9, 2021

He has been 100% wrong over the years if you go back and look at his calls.

Reminds me of Prechter from Elliott Wave International. Constantly calling for a crash for more than a decade.

 

[finicky]

@Porper well you give me a secular blue-print then and I'll follow you!
I'm not proud and have absolutely no reason to be - except that I've lost 5kg by time restricted eating.

 

[finicky]

My guru is pretty off in the timing of his calls and always wriggles out of this by saying he's a macro strategist or something and not a market timer for traders. Yet he continues to put a time frame-work on the big transitions he expects to unfold, e.g, He expects a "melt up", probably in the second quarter of 2021, that will be the preliminary to an historic crash. He does seek to mitigate past timing errors by saying that he is sketching out the end of a multi decade bull market, a massive global bust and a multi-year industrially driven relationary recovery in which gold for example will go to $10,000+, big epic moves, implying I think that he should be given a bit of timing latitude.

 

[Porper]

@Porper well you give me a secular blue-print then and I'll follow you!
I'm not proud and have absolutely no reason to be - except that I've lost 5kg by time restricted eating.

If I could time the markets I'd let you follow me lol. Unfortunately I can't.

30 yrs in the markets and I haven't met anybody that can project highs and lows on a consistent basis. The good news is that you don't need to as a few on here have shown. Peter2 etc

 

[finicky]

My guru should be given points for the important, let alone the epic moves if he gets them right. The timing of them is much less significant for me.

He has remained steadfast through lot of negativity that big upward moves lie ahead for gold, silver and equities. If this happens he should be given points as how many have stayed firm over the last year about that? Even during the Covid breakdown he was coolly adamant that this was not the global deflationary bust that he had been predicting, it was merely an interruption and the melt up still lay ahead.

Recently he predicted 10 yr yields to reach 1.5% when they were still ultra low and had not made an upward move. Points from me. Now he's saying that they will drop to 1%. Points if that happens. If we get the melt-up move, even if its late, points will not suffice. I will take to the road wearing a sheet and carrying a begging bowl to collect alms in the village for my guru.

Deduct a point for predicting that the fraudulent Joe Biden win would be overturned in the Supreme Court.

 

[finicky]

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

Gold & silver are set up for big rallies ahead. I expect a declining dollar, declining interest rates & continuing signs of increasing inflation to propel gold to $2500 & silver to $45-$50 in the mos ahead. Miners will be big beneficiaries. Targets: GDX $60,GDXJ $100,SIL $75,SILJ $35.

 

[finicky]

Reiterates stocks 'Melt Up' still ahead in Q2 with a global deflationary bust to follow, inclusive of an 80% stock market crash. Equity market will be the biggest bubble to pop.

One talking point is that gold & silver are emerging from 8 month consolidations with big upside directly ahead.

He says short term people are negative about gold because they look at a yearly chart but it pays to step back and view a long term chart and he says he loves the charts of gold and silver and sees (maturing) flag formations from August. Similar vein to Marc Faber's recent remarks I think. All the giants like gold, I'm a pretty towering figure myself, lol

"Leverage will create the Largest Global Financial Crisis in History"

 

[finicky]

Thought I'd throw in this mini declamatory speech from Stanley Druckenmiller. I had difficulty interpreting what he said but it seems consistent with D. Hunter's outlook in that he uses the term "deflationary bust" and expects a bursting of inflated assets and I think he is saying then to expect consumer inflation. Would be interesting to know his view on Gold. Impressive figure from his Wiki entry.

Home | Peter Grandich

Peter Grandich has been involved in the financial industry for more than 40 years and has been heavily covered throughout financial media.

petergrandich.com

 

[aus_trader]

Thought I'd throw in this mini declamatory speech from Stanley Druckenmiller. I had difficulty interpreting what he said but it seems consistent with D. Hunter's outlook in that he uses the term "deflationary bust" and expects a bursting of inflated assets and I think he is saying then to expect consumer inflation. Would be interesting to know his view on Gold. Impressive figure from his Wiki entry.

Home | Peter Grandich

Peter Grandich has been involved in the financial industry for more than 40 years and has been heavily covered throughout financial media.

petergrandich.com

Interesting findings @finicky as always.

I think the consumer inflation is starting to happen now, it's just not really talked about by the media. Or they are banned from doing so, because they want to keep the interest rates at zero for as long as possible.

And agree, the poor people will feel it more in the US according to the video as the FED money feeds the rich over there via asset price rise.

Not sure if it's the same effect down under. I could be wrong but I think the plastic notes are a bit better distributed here amongst the population.

 

[finicky]

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian

"Lots of investors overreacted to yesterday's sell-off but the set-up is clear.Equity markets & gold & silver headed sharply higher while USD ready to head sharply lower. Oil is heading lower. Tech,esp semis & FAANG,will lead but also industrials,materials,homebuilders & biotech."

 

[finicky]

David Hunter: Get prepared for a massive 80% stock market crash by the end of 2021

 

[divs4ever]

'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent ' ,

yes i know it is an old quote , but boy-oh-boy doesn't it look relevant currently

i have been waiting for this crash since mid-2013 ( assuming March 2020 was only a nasty correction since it didn't break the long-term trendline )

all the indications have been there for years , flashing brightly since September 2019 ... but here we are tripping around fantasy land not far from new record highs in Australia , and pushing to new record levels in some other nations

BUT what do you do to protect yourself ??

sure i have some spare cash , with some take-over cash and div. cash coming , but please assess carefully , SOME positions will be worth holding all through this , while reducing or selling will make sense in others

about the only thing else to do is have a 'dream list ' ready in case there is a shopping opportunity ( and probably reducing your debt levels might work for you as well .)

IMO they have been kicking this can for AT LEAST two years , can they get in another couple of taps

 

[finicky]

The guru tweeted an hour or so ago that he expects this stock market correction to have bottomed in the next day or two.
Earlier he tweeted that the tightening rhetoric will fade for the time being as the economy is decelerating. See tweet for his exact words. He expects that the 'melt up' is directly ahead.
In a reply, another I follow, DowGoldEquals1, says Hunter's bullish gold prediction is "too conservative" (see his Dow/Gold chart)

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
"We're nearing the end of this correction.Sentiment is very bearish.Can still test the lows & perhaps even make lower lows but a historic melt-up is about to get underway.The economy's decelerating & the tightening narrative is peaking.S&P to 6000,Dow 45000,Nasdaq 20000 & RUT 3000"

 

[finicky]

Still sticking his neck out


David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·23h
The rocket is ready to leave the launch pad. The melt-up is getting underway. Investors are about to discover what a real melt-up looks & feels like. S&P to 6000,DJIA to 45,000,Nasdaq to 20,000 & RUT to 3,000 in coming weeks & months. Growth & value, large & small cap will all play.