David Hunter Market Collapse Prophecy

[finicky]

Time for a Dave Hunter reminder - my market guru, lol
Sold a few more CDA last week, selling some gold miners will be harder.
Charts of the ETFs he mentioned on July 15th are thumbnailed: viz: energy, industrials and financials.


David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
Jul 15
XLE, XLI & XLF are poised to begin catch-up rallies as the market enters its melt-up phase. Semis, miners & FAANG will continue to lead. Defensive groups like utilities & consumer staples will be the laggards.

 

[finicky]

Since I've been promoting David Hunter as a Seer with perfect future vision (a little ironically) I should post here a link and entry from his 'Seeking Alpha' page from April 2018. Please do a double take on that date April 10, 2018. It's pretty much the blue print he has given for 2020-2021 except he was saying that the foretold events would begin in 2018.

While I now think his timing sucks, it has, strangely perhaps, not shaken all that much my acceptance of his basic story. He simply rebuts that he is not a precise dater and adjusts his predictions as things change.

I will continue to adjust my 'p/f' (i.e cash up) in agreement with his outlook but just take that global deflationary bust starting date (Labor Day 2020 in US) with a lot of scepticism.

Quote Dave Hunter April 10, 2018 on his Leading Alpha page:

"I think the likelihood is we top out in the second quarter and begin the bear market in the second half of this year. The market will roll over before the economy but I think the bust likely gets underway before the end of 2018 as well. I am forecasting what I expect to be the worst global downturn in the post WWII era, the first global deflationary downturn since the Great Depression and potentially the biggest financial crisis in history. It is not a trading call. It is a macro cycle call describing what is coming when this cycle ends. It is also not the "end of the world" scenario that some are forecasting. There will be an inflation-driven recovery cycle following this downturn. We will see price appreciation, particularly in the commodity sector, that will dwarf the price movement of the late seventies and early eighties. So in other words, deflation will beget inflation as the policymakers scramble to stem a freefalling financial system and save it from total collapse. This means massive money printing and with a lag, inflation. Once this gets started, it will happen fast. The massive debt and derivative exposure will speed everything. The exits will get very crowded and there will be a heavy price to be paid for being late. Illiquid sell-off will be what defines this unwind. February was but a tiny window into what is coming."

Apr 10, 2018.
https://seekingalpha.com/user/8405611/comments

 

[finicky]

3 August podcast

 

[moXJO]

3 August podcast

God... if this came true then I'd invite you all to my own private island (clothing optional).
I just can't see silver going to $300. I'll secretly hope, but can't see it happening.

 

[finicky]

He foresees a highly inflationary scenario for commodities accompanying an industrial boom post 2021. You'll need to be patient - if he's correct $300 silver is out to around 2028 and first the bust in 2021 where he expects a big DROP in the silver price along with just about everything else and has mentioned $10 usd silver although he's a bit uncertain how low.
Also, though so far I forgive him this, his timing has been off - he's been expecting the global deflationary bust since 2018. If he's right about the nature and sequence of macro events the precise timing isn't too material, to me at least.
He includes long multi decade cycles in his reasoning along with big fundamentals like goverment spending, central bank printing, debt and derivatives. I'm having a bob each way - keeping ~70% of my shares but liquidating quite a bit and maintaining exposure to precious metals.

 

[tech/a]

It will likely happen when Trump stops spending.
Covid continues and govt's pull back on support.
Businesses who have survived through support
disappear and un employment remains very high.

Banks start foreclosing on deferred payments which
have for a time staved off the inevitable in both housing
and business loans.

October/November.
Get set for short indexes.

 

[tech/a]

So in other words, deflation will beget inflation as the policymakers scramble to stem a freefalling financial system and save it from total collapse. This means massive money printing and with a lag, inflation. Once this gets started, it will happen fast. The massive debt and derivative exposure will speed everything. The exits will get very crowded and there will be a heavy price to be paid for being late. Illiquid sell-off will be what defines this unwind.

If we transpose that in black with

COVID will see the policymakers scramble to stem a freefalling financial system

The picture is a little clearer.

 

[finicky]

If we transpose that in black with - COVID will see the policymakers scramble to stem a freefalling financial system - the picture is a little clearer.

I have to demur, at least regarding that which my guru foretells. He has been predicting a global deflationary bust for at least two years before CCP biological warfare came on the scene. My interpretation is that he is saying that Covid will perhaps trigger and amplify the end of a secular debt cycle, an end that will be exacerbated by derivatives. A liquidity crisis that was in the works before CV19 wherein everything that can be sold will be sold. Covid is an extraneous event that he couldn't predict (of course) and has delayed the ominous preliminary 'melt-up' currently in progress. Like an ocean receding from the shore before a monstrous incoming sushi. Worse than 1929.

 

[tech/a]

Yes agree

 

[qldfrog]

Like an ocean receding from the shore before a monstrous incoming sushi

Finicky, I assume you mean tsunami as we will not have much sushi to gorge on if this happens. ;-)
More seriously so, if all investments initially collapse we have to move everything to fiat then back into gold silver?
That could be quite difficult due to gov interference;whole countries in house arrest for a virus which is in all perspective minor, if a crisis threaten the foundations of our society, I expect the worst in term of finance control
Assuming you believe in these predictions, IMHO, this is not tinhat conspiracy and could indeed happen, how do you protect yourself here in Oz?

 

[Richard Dale]

We might need to come up with a refresh version of this definition:

Tech wreck: - the end of the dot.com bubble. Surprisingly enough, many observers predicted the wreck in advance. As time went on, more and more of these observers came forward.

For more satire like this:
https://norgatedata.com/alternative.php

 

[finicky]

For more satire like this:
https://norgatedata.com/alternative.php

Lol, fun read. Couple of samples:

"Market report: - a concise explanation of why a market traded up or down. 99% of market reports are drawn from other market reports. The remainder are whimsical"

"Stop-loss: - the trader's equivalent of a condom. It's something you know you should have used after it's too late."

 

[finicky]

Assuming you believe in these predictions, IMHO, this is not tinhat conspiracy and could indeed happen, how do you protect yourself here in Oz?

Well, with the caveat I don't know what the intercourse I'm doing, I have been scared into selling a significant portion of my shares. Not 30% yet, but 2/3rds of the way there. No way would I have sold these shares normally. Cash - an underrated financial asset. I don't need to buy gold or silver as I aready have a sufficient allocated physical account with my dealer. I won't be risking selling gold or silver even though I accept it will be hit. Gold's recovery should be rapid imo. I will consider putting a bit of the cash into a bear etf but not much as I don't really understand etfs and am not sure of counter party risks in the event of a collapse - who does the etf collect from if companies or institutions are going bankrupt? I will probably hold some of the cash in USD etf if I get advice that it has bottomed. I will probably put some of the cash into Australian Govt Bonds etf. These last two are from casual advice I got elswhere.

Maybe I'm being a Debbie Downer and it won't happen, I wouldn't be taking these radical steps if hadn't accidentally come across @DaveHcontrarian on twitter. Also been influenced by Vern Gowdie and a guy called Clifford Bennett who is always relentlessly positive but in the Covid crash was bug-eyed about "protecting your nest egg"

 

[qldfrog]

Fair enough, i expect the usd usd to fall a bit and looking a bit elsewhere
I have a few euro but Europe is a collapsing setup and uk will join.
Any easy way to get swiss franc or yen here in oz..obviously not in notes but bonds or etf?

 

[moXJO]

Lol, fun read. Couple of samples:

"Stop-loss: - the trader's equivalent of a condom. It's something you know you should have used after it's too late."

Love this one...

 

[finicky]

@qldfrog
Here's a screenshot of currency ETFs on the ASX. Slim pickings really. Interestingly there's a strong USD one that I didn't know about - YANK.
Dave Hunter says he expects the USD to retain its flight to be safety status in the bust.
I thought of the Swiss franc too but it's missing on the list as is the Yen. I assume this list is current and complete.
Once again though, are we sure that the etf structure will hold intact under the most extreme conditions?
https://www.asx.com.au/products/etf/managed-funds-etp-product-list.htm

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

3 August podcast

I generally agree.

Basic take away for me is just to make sure that you have enough cash and precious metals to get through the volatile phase; stay away from derivatives; and keep your powder dry (cash-on-hand) to buy in when precious metals and equities are cheap/oversold, with a focus on commodity producing and particularly precious metal producing equities.

 

[qldfrog]

@qldfrog
Here's a screenshot of currency ETFs on the ASX. Slim pickings really. Interestingly there's a strong USD one that I didn't know about - YANK.
Dave Hunter says he expects the USD to retain its flight to be safety status in the bust.
I thought of the Swiss franc too but it's missing on the list as is the Yen. I assume this list is current and complete.
Once again though, are we sure that the etf structure will hold intact under the most extreme conditions?
https://www.asx.com.au/products/etf/managed-funds-etp-product-list.htm

View attachment 107364

Thanks was not aware of YANK.
I arrived at the same conclusion about YEN and Swiss franc after similar research a few months ago.
No certainty with ETF but no other real choice
I trust the PMGold..maybe optimistic but otherwise...I will not forget the OOO ETF story...
A currency ETF should be fundamentally OK , if not geared but what if the provider goes bankrupted on other tools...etc etc

 

[finicky]

fwiw, Tony Locantro is telling his clients to shelter a bit in leveraged bear etfs: BBOZ and BBUS, and to keep averaging in. Towards end of interview.
As an aside, his biotech tips that were bashed in the CCP Plague have gone well.

 

[finicky]

Silver
@DaveHcontrarian on twitter takes offence easily and is testy, not to say up a bit up himself imo, about being loosely quoted. So in deference I will correct a comment that I made on Tuesday on this thread about his prediction for silver at the depth of the near future global deflationary bust. I believe I remember him once playing with the possibility of $10 an oz as a worst case scenario but he clearly believes it won't be as bad as that. Keep in mind that he is massively bullish silver in the inflationary recovery cycle that he says will follow the brutally short bust. Here he is sharply pulling up some other upstart misstating his authority:

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·Aug 14
"Please don't try to repeat my forecasts because you end up misstating them. This isn't the first time. I think silver could correct to the mid 20's from the mid 30's."