David Hunter Market Collapse Prophecy

[brerwallabi]

40000 Dow Jones it’s coming unfortunately I don’t know how to rant on youtube

 

[finicky]

My god, he's actually admitted a wrong call but still has the arrogance to tell the guy not to be silly.
He has said before that oil had topped
Still calling for a market melt-up though.

Tweeter to Hunter:
"Oil is blowing through the roof. How the heck will it drop 50% to meet your forecast?"



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·4h
"That forecast is gone now. Don't be silly. Sometimes forecasts don't work out. This is not at all an exact science. My oil forecast was just wrong."

 

[finicky]

He's still at it. Maybe he'll pull it off this time.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
We're at or near important inflection points in many markets.Rates have topped & bonds look ready to run.USD appears poised for a big reversal to the downside.Silver & gold & the miners are beginning big runs to the upside & the equity markets are bottoming & poised for a melt-up
5:17 AM · May 20, 2022

 

[Telamelo]

L

He's still at it. Maybe he'll pull it off this time.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
We're at or near important inflection points in many markets.Rates have topped & bonds look ready to run.USD appears poised for a big reversal to the downside.Silver & gold & the miners are beginning big runs to the upside & the equity markets are bottoming & poised for a melt-up
5:17 AM · May 20, 2022

Lol still at it haha - wonder what he thinks of Gold ?

 

[finicky]

He says gold will go to like US$2,500 in the coming melt-up b4 crashing along with all assets. Then it will rise to like $10,000 in the subsequent reflationary bull market where commodities will soar.

 

[wayneL]

Still forecasting a crack up boom THIS YEAR, then a bust FWIW

 

[finicky]

He's full of sh*t and I'd tell him so to his face
(not really)
Felix Zulauf is my macro guru now, Dave can go fork hiimself which he does all the time anyway.

 

[tech/a]

Is this guy into Gann or Gartley?
The only analysis I know that can get it wrong 100% going forward
and get it right 100 % in hindsite

 

[finicky]

My replacement guru has opined on developments to come in 2024. This is from financialsense.com and I will post the Felix Zaulauf interview if I can find it available for free.

Felix Zulauf Predicts Market Top, ‘Big Decline’ in 2024 Before Next Powerful Rally

Dec 14, 2023 – In a recent interview with FS Insider, well-known investment strategist Felix Zulauf discussed his macro outlook for 2024, including a bull run in the stock market into the first quarter of 2024 followed by the potential...

www.financialsense.com

In a recent interview with FS Insider, well-known investment strategist Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Consulting discussed his macro outlook for 2024, including a bull run in the stock market into the first quarter of 2024 followed by the potential for a sharp decline.

In our prior conversations, Felix correctly called the December 2021 peak in the stock market and then made another great call when we caught up with him after the October 2022 bottom to go long growth stocks for a rally in 2023.

Given his highly sought after insights on the market and economy, we were fortunate to get an update on what Felix expects for 2024 and looking out even more long-term when it comes to the US stock market, bonds, inflation, the US and global economy, as well as precious metals and commodities.

Here's what he had to say in a recent must-listen interview on our FS Insider podcast (see Felix Zulauf's 2024 Outlook on Stocks, the Economy, and Commodities for audio):

“The way I see it is we had a mini bear market in 2022 and now we have a mini bull market into probably the first quarter of 2024, when I expect the market to top… I may have said on your show last time in late 2021 that we are in for rollercoaster years in the markets…and we will get more of that with extreme moves.”

Though the US stock market is currently running to the upside with investor sentiment quite optimistic about the future, Felix believes 2024 will quite volatile.

“The percentage decline could be quite sharp next year and it could be one of the few years in history that sees an important high and an important low in the same year,” Felix told listeners.

Record High Concentration​

A particularly concerning aspect for Zulauf is the record level of concentration into the so-called Magnificent 7 technology companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla. This overconcentration is fueled by the trend towards index and passive investing, wherein a significant portion of capital is allocated towards a select few stocks that dominate these indices.

“When you think about it, if somebody out there in the world invests according to the world index, 62% of the money goes into the US stock market. And out of that money, 30% goes into seven stocks. And if you are a money manager, you have to own those seven stocks at least in proportion to their weighting in the index. And if you want to outperform, you have to over own them. So the concentration must be extreme.”

Such a situation is perilous because it means that a market downturn could lead to a brutal selloff in these stocks, exacerbated by their heavy ownership, thereby leading to even steeper declines.

Once the excessively optimistic sentiment reaches its peak in 2024 and swings back to fear in the next big decline, Felix told listeners that he is going to be positioning for another powerful bull cycle. This time, however, he believes it will be accompanied by another wave of inflation and commodity prices.

“I think the next bull cycle from wherever it starts, in my view, from the low 3000s [on the S&P 500] will be a very powerful one. And we could go to 6000 or 7000 on the S&P because the liquidity they inject will not be used up by the real economy, because the real economy is structurally in a weak condition and therefore it flows into asset prices and equity prices. And commodity prices will go up. And as commodity prices rise, so will inflation. So we will then have the next inflation cycle from a 2024 low to maybe a 2026-2027 high.”

To listen to this full audio interview, see Felix Zulauf's 2024 Outlook on Stocks, the Economy, and Commodities.

 

[finicky]

Hit the blue 'download' button to listen. Not sure how long they leave this available.

Felix Zulauf's 2024 Outlook on Stocks, the Economy, and Commodities

Dec 8, 2023 – FS Insider is joined by the well-known investor and strategist Felix Zulauf, founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, to discuss his macro outlook for 2024. Felix provides listeners an update on what he expects for the US...

www.financialsense.com

 

[finicky]

He's still at it. I get insomnia but managed to doze off around 3am last night listening to this. He has a soporific voice.

 

[wayneL]

My prediction for gold is $10,000...

...please note there is no time restriction on this prediction, I know I'm right.

 

[divs4ever]

He's still at it. I get insomnia but managed to doze off around 3am last night listening to this. He has a soporific voice.

but you only have to be right once in 20 years or so ( because you are liable to win BIG , if you back your prediction )

 

[wayneL]

but you only have to be right once in 20 years or so ( because you are liable to win BIG , if you back your prediction )

Nicholas Nassim Taleb endorses this message.

 

[divs4ever]

well they dug their way out of the 2019 mess , with lock-downs and a K-shaped recovery , Japan is on the brink again

he might not be correct this time either , but a few bucks into 'safety plays' might be great insurance

 

[finicky]

6 months to make hay? Keeps on getting pushed back. Topping targets on S&P500, DJIA, Russell Index, Gold (US$3,400), Silver ($75)

 

[houtman]

6 months to make hay? Keeps on getting pushed back. Topping targets on S&P500, DJIA, Russell Index, Gold (US$3,400), Silver ($75)

I like Mr Hunter, he helps keep me nervous, I don't follow his timelines at all but keep the shape in mind.

There's been a noticeable increase in the use of his "Melt Up" phrase by the wanna be commentators of late.

David Hunter’s net worth remains a closely guarded secret, which is unusual in an industry where success is measured by portfolio size. - Same Dave, same

 

[qldfrog]

I like Mr Hunter, he helps keep me nervous, I don't follow his timelines at all but keep the shape in mind.

There's been a noticeable increase in the use of his "Melt Up" phrase by the wanna be commentators of late.

David Hunter’s net worth remains a closely guarded secret, which is unusual in an industry where success is measured by portfolio size. - Same Dave, same

Size is everything
It is good to have doom prophecy as this makes you aware and plan black swan events

 

[finicky]

Felix Zulauf first 7 or so minutes.
Just paraphrasing:
Focusing on U.S market but thinks it will be across all sovereignties - a 15-20% correction in early cal 2025, probably January. Possibly triggered by Trump's tariff repercussions and maybe DOGE (dept of government efficiency) stringency. Everything grossly overvalued and over extended.

 

[divs4ever]

Felix Zulauf first 7 or so minutes.
Just paraphrasing:
Focusing on U.S market but thinks it will be across all sovereignties - a 15-20% correction in early cal 2025, probably January. Possibly triggered by Trump's tariff repercussions and maybe DOGE (dept of government efficiency) stringency. Everything grossly overvalued and over extended.

but will it be 'a healthy correction' or will there be dozens of lifelines thrown to select corporations

recent years suggests 'winners will be picked '

and 20% isn't so unusual as far as corrections go , although there are some moaning the ASX has only dropped about 5% from recent record highs ( this month )