Copper

[divs4ever]

Another indication that we may have seen the bottom in copper. Both Pt and Pd were in demand late in the week.

View attachment 143903

expecting Russia to limit exports ( to unfriendly nations/markets ) , perhaps ?

or maybe someone has crunched the numbers and realized the EV revolution ( in the West ) will be delayed

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Another indication that we may have seen the bottom in copper. Both Pt and Pd were in demand late in the week.

View attachment 143903

Are you suggesting we "INVEST RESPONSIBLY" ?
Using all the Fundamental knowledge we possess and can gather in a short term



OR USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS we have learned to trust over many years



AS Always INVEST RESPONSIBLY, DYOR and trust no-one

 

[peter2]

The latest rally in copper has failed to carry on. Something ventured, nothing gained.

Price has now made a new low near $3.25 /lb. It's <10% above the $3 level which should provide strong support. We'll see. I'll wait until the price attempts to rally again.

 

[wayneL]

The latest rally in copper has failed to carry on. Something ventured, nothing gained.

Price has now made a new low near $3.25 /lb. It's <10% above the $3 level which should provide strong support. We'll see. I'll wait until the price attempts to rally again.

Interesting view the correlation with other industrial base metals, and indeed PMs... Particularly in view of inflationary pressures + DXY strength.

Personally, I do have an overall thesis for the next 6 months but equally feel like a mule at a new gate.... Unpicking this lock with no more than a dexterous nose will not be easy.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The latest rally in copper has failed to carry on. Something ventured, nothing gained.

Price has now made a new low near $3.25 /lb. It's <10% above the $3 level which should provide strong support. We'll see. I'll wait until the price attempts to rally again.

Thanks @peter2 .

I really cannot see Cu or the REM's rallying meaningfully for us investors in Australia, while the threat of War escalating in Ukraine, and China causing supply chain blocks because of Covid, persists. War and its consequences requires oil and steel, and then Cu kicks in. China needs iron and coal for buildings and bedding so that the cousins at the top of the Communist Party don't get necked by the dissatisfied cousins at the bottom of the CCP.

I can very well see $3.00 /lb. being a support for Cu.

I'm avoiding small spec miners atm. until all the kerfuffle appears to be settling. Large miners and energy on the other hand ...

gg

 

[eskys]

The greenback is strong. I'm avoiding all commodities at the moment......for that matter, I'm avoiding everything until there are signs that the market is turning around. I'm so lost, I can't trade anymore.........

 

[peter2]

Agree, the DXY strength has knocked all commodities for six. Their prices continue to weaken as the USD strength persists. Euro now at parity with the USD. Soon it'll be lower. Wheat back at low levels in spite of the Ukraine crisis.

Yes, a rally in copper price will need China as a buyer. This'll only happen if Xi decides to stimulate the economy. Won't happen if he sticks to his illogical zero Covid policy and enforces continual lockdowns.

The better course of action is to wait this out and see how it resolves.

@eskys yep, feel your frustration. I've returned to day trading US.

 

[eskys]

Good luck Peter, a hard worker like you deserves reward. I know not head from tail re: US market. Hard enough locally, let alone US for me. You need the knowledge to deal with overseas market, and to stay awake!

 

[JohnDe]

There's too much copper around, even with the world going electric, our miners have no issues finding it.

Copper market to be well supplied in 2022

The global refined copper market is expected to be in a significant surplus in 2022, following a small supply deficit in 2021.

The 2022 surplus is based on the assumption of a 3.9% increase in refined output, the biggest increase in eight years, with copper demand expected to see a 2.4% increase, ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir said in a note Dec. 7.

Even though a rise in demand is anticipated, this will not be enough to absorb the increase in supply,

 

[Captain_Chaza]

The CONUNDRUM is that all mining contracts as I understand it
are still written in the "Reserve Currency" of the day
IE: The USD / The BIG Buck/ the Greenback ATM

Seems to me that Most Miners have hedged their bets the wrong way
It's as simple as that
They seem to sail the FX with no Idea of Technical Analysis

Too Busy to do the hard yards , I guess

 

[eskys]

The CONUNDRUM is that all mining contracts as I understand it
are still written in the "Reserve Currency" of the day
IE: The USD / The BIG Buck/ the Greenback ATM

Seems to me that Most Miners have hedged their bets the wrong way
It's as simple as that
They seem to sail the FX with no Idea of Technical Analysis

Too Busy to do the hard yards , I guess

View attachment 144056

I don't know it has something to do with TA or too busy to do the hard yards. I think sometimes there are 'missing links' and we sometimes forget how one department influences another or how one factor can affect another............just my two cents worth, Captain

 

[Captain_Chaza]

I don't know it has something to do with TA or too busy to do the hard yards. I think sometimes there are 'missing links' and we sometimes forget how one department influences another or how one factor can affect another............just my two cents worth, Captain

All I am saying is
"Technical Analysis is the Hard Way"

The Easy Way is to do as little "Fundamental analysis" as you can to keep your job

I used to ask myself every week AND STILL DO to this day

Did I manage my business at my best?

Would you employ this manager? /Financial Advisor?
to manage your Ship /Financial Interests for NEXT WEEK and beyond?

 

[Smurf1976]

Seems to me that Most Miners have hedged their bets the wrong way
It's as simple as that
They seem to sail the FX with no Idea of Technical Analysis

Always remember Pasminco.

A sound business as such but completely blown up through hedging that went wrong. Ended the existence of the company.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Always remember Pasminco.

A sound business as such but completely blown up through hedging that went wrong. Ended the existence of the company.

I Remember Well!

 

[eskys]

TA is hard work, and in this game, it's important to have a long memory. Unfortunately, mine is too short. I can't remember how Pasminco hit the wall so many moons ago

 

[Captain_Chaza]

TA is hard work, and in this game, it's important to have a long memory. Unfortunately, mine is too short. I can't remember how Pasminco hit the wall so many moons ago

I sometimes forget I've got children

 

[eskys]

Haha, Captain, you need to be patient with the younger ones. We fall off the bandwagon more often than you old geezers.

Hope you've found your other half...beautiful Anne. Hope she's ok, I've been thinking a lot about her wondering how she is, and wishing her well.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Haha, Captain, you need to be patient with the younger ones. We fall off the bandwagon more often than you old geezers.

Hope you've found your other half...beautiful Anne. Hope she's ok, I've been thinking a lot about her wondering how she is, and wishing her well.

I am very saddened to say that my 1st Mate Ann is MIA and feared Lost at Sea
We all miss her greatly and wish her well

 

[eskys]

I hope Ann sees this Captain, and knows how well we think of her..............Wishing you a Speedy Recovery, Ann. Come back soon, sending you hugs and kisses...........

 

[peter2]

Copper, gold, silver and all other metals are being hammered (Smithy pun) again today.
DXY surging higher. There's no bottom in sight yet.