Copper

[peter2]

Agree with the last few comments.
Copper seems to be indicating 100% chance of a hard recession in world markets. Which I don't agree with. I think any recession will be minimal both in time and severity (unemployment is low). IMO the fall in POC is oversold and the rally should be quick and bouncey. The "V" pattern is not my fav pattern to trade, but OK if prepared for it.

China buying copper from Russia, under the table - hmm, this could very well be true. If true, then copper won't bounce and the reversal would be much slower and smoother (easier to trade, but not as lucrative).

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Excuse my ignorance.

Apart from stocks, how does one trade Copper?

I have both USD and AUD denominated trading accounts with IBKR and Commsec.

gg

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Our Problem with China goes back a long way
Back to Federation in ~1901 from memory
A ship landed in Melbourne with 200 Chinese onboard in search of Gold or to Service the Gold Industries

They were told to go away !
Go away to any other State !
"We are not interested in having you! HERE!"
The only State of the Commonwealth at that time they could find to accept them was the state of NZ

The other States were so outraged The Federation of all the States into AUSTRALIA was formed

"Without New Zealand"

Of course China Buys what it can from ELSE WARE when it can and has always done so

They remember!

 

[peter2]

Copper, the metal can be traded using futures contracts. There are now three sizes of contracts which makes it much easier for a small account to trade/invest in copper.

Comex - HG - Contract size 25,000 lbs this is the biggie.
Comex_Mini - QC - Contract size 12,500 lbs (mini)
Comex_Mini - MHG - Contract size 2,500 lbs (micro)

These are traded in USD.

US copper ETFs that invest in copper producers COPX, CPER (ETV)
Copper producers - Both here in Aust and US markets.

 

[wayneL]

Copper, the metal can be traded using futures contracts. There are now three sizes of contracts which makes it much easier for a small account to trade/invest in copper.

Comex - HG - Contract size 25,000 lbs this is the biggie.
Comex_Mini - QC - Contract size 12,500 lbs (mini)
Comex_Mini - MHG - Contract size 2,500 lbs (micro)

These are traded in USD.

US copper ETFs that invest in copper producers COPX, CPER (ETV)
Copper producers - Both here in Aust and US markets.

There are also the CFDs, if you can stomach the bid/ask spread

 

[JohnDe]

Our Problem with China goes back a long way
Back to Federation in ~1901 from memory
A ship landed in Melbourne with 200 Chinese onboard in search of Gold or to Service the Gold Industries

They were told to go away !
Go away to any other State !
"We are not interested in having you! HERE!"
The only State of the Commonwealth at that time they could find to accept them was the state of NZ

The other States were so outraged The Federation of all the States into AUSTRALIA was formed

"Without New Zealand"

Of course China Buys what it can from ELSE WARE when it can and has always done so
View attachment 143744
They remember!

Revealed: The real reason New Zealand didn't become part of Australia

Kiwis value their independence, but 118 years ago, the decision could have been made to throw away that independence in favour of becoming a state of Australia.

Imagine that - No All Blacks, nuclear-free legislation nor a claim to the first person who climbed Mount Everest.

The Aussies certainly used to claim us as their own. Up until 1835, the colony of New South Wales actually governed us, until a group of Māori chiefs signed a Declaration of Independence (He Wakaputanga o te Rangatiratanga o Nu Tireni).

Our separate identity was further enhanced with the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi in 1840, and although there was a protracted and bloody armed struggle between some Māori iwi and British Imperial forces after that, Australia's colonial masters still eyed New Zealand as a potential prize.

At the end of the 19th century, all six Australian colonies voted unanimously to form a federated nation and asked New Zealand if we'd like to join. So why didn't we?

The 'King Dick' theory

Doctor Felicity Barnes, a senior lecturer in New Zealand History at the University of Auckland, told Newshub that the relative importance of the many reasons has been debated for decades.

"Some have argued that the New Zealand Prime Minister of the time, Richard 'King Dick' Seddon, preferred being the leader of a nation t..........

Revealed: The real reason NZ didn't become part of Australia

In 1899, the Aussies wanted us to become a state... why did we refuse?

www.newshub.co.nz

Revealed: The real reason NZ didn't become part of Australia

In 1899, the Aussies wanted us to become a state... why did we refuse?

www.newshub.co.nz

 

[JohnDe]

Copper, the metal can be traded using futures contracts. There are now three sizes of contracts which makes it much easier for a small account to trade/invest in copper.

Comex - HG - Contract size 25,000 lbs this is the biggie.
Comex_Mini - QC - Contract size 12,500 lbs (mini)
Comex_Mini - MHG - Contract size 2,500 lbs (micro)

These are traded in USD.

US copper ETFs that invest in copper producers COPX, CPER (ETV)
Copper producers - Both here in Aust and US markets.

I've been keeping an eye on COPX for a while, and have a very small parcel, pricing doesn't seem to follow demand as much as one would presume. Look at the 10 year chart and the volume from increase in the past few years, just about when EV's started to get traction.

 

[signalFollower]

Market seems to be factoring in more than a recession to me.

my view is it's an over-reactions to China's extended full lockdown approach with COVID, which is a politically motivated thing so as to not make president Xi look silly by going back on his word. After the November (??) re-electrion of President Xi they'll probably shift policy to something a representing the rest of the world's approach and manufacturing output / copper consumptions will resume

 

[signalFollower]

can anyone help with this question:

Is a potential 500 million tonne porphyry copper desposit deemed a large one ?

 

[Tyre Kicker]

Absolutely ginormous.

I’m buying AAU tomorrow if that is the case.

 

[signalFollower]

Absolutely ginormous.

I’m buying AAU tomorrow if that is the case.

last time I refrenced a specific company the Copper thread wasn't interested in that potential supply being confirmed, but anyway I did post a video over on the AAU thread if you want to watch it and draw your own conclusions.

I did think 500 million tonnes would be a substantial deposit, thanks for your response.

 

[peter2]

Copper rallying off yesterday's low (3.30/lb). My initial target is 3.80 but if it goes past, then 4.00 is on.



Bought an initial position last evening (US morning) after thinking that price was getting closer to cost of production + reasonable margin.
All in cost from a large producer (Chile) was 2.31 /lb. I added 10% for rising costs (2.55). At the low 3.30 the margin was only 0.75 (~30%). Bought more today at 3.50 raising stop to 3.38.

This rally in copper might start demand for other resources. If this rally fails then we're not at the bottom yet.

 

[Sean K]

can anyone help with this question:

Is a potential 500 million tonne porphyry copper desposit deemed a large one ?

Around 1Bt @0.5% for 3Mt CuEq (usually with Au), with a high grade core around 1% is a start. XAM and HCH both have these but they're in the toilet due to location. A range of projects from HCH and XAM presentations below. Most of these are porphyry.

 

[signalFollower]

Around 1Bt @0.5% for 3Mt CuEq (usually with Au), with a high grade core around 1% is a start. XAM and HCH both have these but they're in the toilet due to location. A range of projects from HCH and XAM presentations below. Most of these are porphyry.


View attachment 143831


View attachment 143832

thanks for these they are great, because the drilling is historic it cant be spoken to according to ASX listing rules, but there's a hint of suggestion in the recent interview and this month's confirmation drilling is just that, for the purpose of landing on a JORC compliant resource / grades

the oxide cap that sits above the deeper porhyry apparenlt has much higher grades, so it'll be a case of whether they persist to depth, hence the drilling

 

[cribmogul]

For my two cents copper looks a bit challenged right now. I'm becoming more bearish. We could be at the start of an early stage bear trend now. Because of its extremely widespread applications everywhere I don't think this bodes well for economies. Let's see what happens.

for traders:
Copper can be tough to trade. Buy and sell can turn at the drop of a hat in any direction market. Using very small position sizes and/or having a very large account helps manage risk. If you are trading in the right direction at the beginning of a long trend and ride it carefully you can profit well.

Good luck all. this is not specific financial advice just my opinion on the forum ?

 

[cribmogul]

There are also the CFDs, if you can stomach the bid/ask spread

High grade copper (A$1) contracts on IG markets platform are available.

I trade on IG, the market isn't too difficult to understand. Its always challenging to profit, but it's never boring with the price fluctuations..

I don't have any other affiliation with IG at all otherwise.

 

[signalFollower]

High grade copper (A$1) contracts on IG markets platform are available.

I trade on IG, the market isn't too difficult to understand. Its always challenging to profit, but it's never boring with the price fluctuations..

I don't have any other affiliation with IG at all otherwise.

only my opinion - but CFDs have you trading against highly tuned algos, on high cost leverage designed to benefit the house.

I have experienced CFD "brokers" do these things:

- close down the market on you because the odds weren't in their favour
- delay market opening times because the odds weren't in their favourduring anticipated high volatility
- sniper you during those special little "extended balancing up" periods that go beyond / before actual underlying market times
- use "tools" like declare a Sell only market
- use "tools" like all open positions will automatically be closed and settled for cash at the end of the trading week
- use "tools" like as of this date we will be revising (down) our margin limits on these (popular) holdings

It hardly comes accross as free market forces, but rather a "damn those investors/traders it seems they were correct, so how can we limit the damage"

but sure if you want access to spot prices I get it

 

[cribmogul]

Agree with the last few comments.
Copper seems to be indicating 100% chance of a hard recession in world markets. Which I don't agree with. I think any recession will be minimal both in time and severity (unemployment is low). IMO the fall in POC is oversold and the rally should be quick and bouncey. The "V" pattern is not my fav pattern to trade, but OK if prepared for it.

China buying copper from Russia, under the table - hmm, this could very well be true. If true, then copper won't bounce and the reversal would be much slower and smoother (easier to trade, but not as lucrative).

Good opinion ?

 

[cribmogul]

only my opinion - but CFDs have you trading against highly tuned algos, on high cost leverage designed to benefit the house.

I have experienced CFD "brokers" do these things:

- close down the market on you because the odds weren't in their favour
- delay market opening times because the odds weren't in their favourduring anticipated high volatility
- sniper you during those special little "extended balancing up" periods that go beyond / before actual underlying market times
- use "tools" like declare a Sell only market
- use "tools" like all open positions will automatically be closed and settled for cash at the end of the trading week
- use "tools" like as of this date we will be revising (down) our margin limits on these (popular) holdings

It hardly comes accross as free market forces, but rather a "damn those investors/traders it seems they were correct, so how can we limit the damage"

but sure if you want access to spot prices I get it

Yes good opinion, there are many obstacles to overcome ?

 

[peter2]

Another indication that we may have seen the bottom in copper. Both Pt and Pd were in demand late in the week.