Copper

[greggles]

I think we are talking past each other. When people talk of a copper shortage they are talking about copper that has been mined, processed and is ready for sale to those who wish to purchase it. They are not talking about copper ore that resides hundreds of metres under the Earth. The former is useful, the latter is not although may be in the future once millions of dollars has been spent digging it out of the ground and processing it into a form that can be used for industrial production.

Copper below the Earth is plentiful, copper mined and processed is not necessarily so. Copper mines take many years and mountains of capital to plan, build and then operate.

Copper Mining and Processing: Life Cycle of a Mine

superfund.arizona.edu

 

[JohnDe]

I think we are talking past each other. When people talk of a copper shortage they are talking about copper that has been mined, processed and is ready for sale to those who wish to purchase it. They are not talking about copper ore that resides hundreds of metres under the Earth. The former is useful, the latter is not although may be in the future once millions of dollars has been spent digging it out of the ground and processing it into a form that can be used for industrial production.

Copper below the Earth is plentiful, copper mined and processed is not necessarily so. Copper mines take many years and mountains of capital to plan, build and then operate.

Copper Mining and Processing: Life Cycle of a Mine

superfund.arizona.edu

From your post I'm gathering that you think that there is going to be a issue with mining the copper, which will cause a shortage and a price boom.

What I have been saying is that there is many recorded locations and reserves of copper, technology has caught up to allow miners to extract the copper at low cost, and we will have no issues in geting to those copper reserves at profitable costs for the forseeable future.

Are We Going to Run Out of Copper?​

​

It Is Highly Improbable!​

Since 1960, there has always been, on average, 38 years of reserves, and significantly greater amounts of known resources (USGS data). In addition, recycling, innovation and mining exploration continue to contribute to the long-term availability of copper.​

​

Despite increased demand for copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown, and there is more identified copper available to the world than at any other time in history.​

​

In the period 2010-2020, 207 million tonnes of copper have been mined. In that same period however, reserves have grown by​

240 million tonnes to 870,000 million tonnnes copper . This reflects additional exploration, technological advances and the evolving economics of mining.​

​

Technology has a key role to play in addressing many of the challenges faced by new copper production. Known and as yet unknown innovations will ensure new mine production continues to provide vital copper supplies.​

​

In addition copper recycling plays an important role in copper availability since today’s primary copper is tomorrow’s recycled material. Unlike other commodities such as energy or food, copper is not “consumed”. Copper is one of the few raw materials which can be recycled repeatedly without any loss of performance, and key stakeholders such as policy-makers, scrap collectors, copper producers and recyclers must all focus on ensuring that yesterday’s metal is recycled and re-used.​

 

[greggles]

From your post I'm gathering that you think that there is going to be a issue with mining the copper, which will cause a shortage and a price boom.

Not exactly. I think that the transition to green energy will exponentially increase the demand for copper and that supply will have trouble keeping up due to the amount of time and capital it takes to get it out of the ground.

World copper deficit may reach 9.9 million tons by 2035 — News — GMK Center

The transition to green energy increases demand, which cannot be met without the introduction of new capacities

gmk.center

Mining Weekly: Copper shortages to hamper net-zero targets - report

www.tasekomines.com

 

[frugal.rock]

General internet 2019? info.
1.4 billion cars ice on road
600 million other combustion engines
Let's say 1 billion of em to be made over x amount of time
1 billion X 25 kg copper = 25 million tons of copper

Wiki
"Copper demand
Total world production is about
18 million metric tons per year.
Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating."

Make of it what you will.
Or a projected chart could probably be found on the net.

 

[JohnDe]

General internet 2019? info.
1.4 billion cars ice on road
600 million other combustion engines
Let's say 1 billion of em to be made over x amount of time
1 billion X 25 kg copper = 25 million tons of copper

Wiki
"Copper demand
Total world production is about
18 million metric tons per year.
Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating."

Make of it what you will.
Or a projected chart could probably be found on the net.

EV's are not the first technology to create high demand for copper, yet the world keeps finding and processing more copper.

The only thing that copper has going for it at the moment is the fear of recession forcing the prices lower than usual. Buying now is probably a good investment, but there is not going to be a shortage of copper anytime soon. And ask yourself this; why have the other minerals required for EV production gone up while copper falls? Why are battery and vehicle manufacturers racing to secure lithium, nickel and cobalt, but not copper?

DYOR, I'm no expert, just someone that doesn't like to lose money following the crowd.

 

[rcw1]

Copper and China

China property stimulus to rescue copper demand, but not yet

Global slowdown is expected to see a slide and trigger a stimulus that could match the 4 trillion yuan package implemented after the 2008 financial crash.

www.mining.com

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[frugal.rock]

And ask yourself this; why have the other minerals required for EV production gone up while copper falls? Why are battery and vehicle manufacturers racing to secure lithium, nickel and cobalt, but not copper?

Because they dumb... Blissful ignorance on their part. That may change as they start to make motors in-house more.
Current LME levels due to China housing, yes.
Not arguing copper supplies, yes it's plentiful.
Just stating the price will go back up and then some.
Unless, the world gets serious on copper recycling beforehand

Industry expected to increase in-house EV motor production

Reuters charts, maps and graphics

graphics.reuters.com

 

[redsmartie]

Here is my copper chart: -

- The price will not move by itself
- The price is correct
- Everybody knows Copper inventory is low at one end and high at the other

Just depends where you buy your copper, some even steal it from the live power poles.

DYOR

 

[JohnDe]

Here is my copper chart: -

- The price will not move by itself
- The price is correct
- Everybody knows Copper inventory is low at one end and high at the other

Just depends where you buy your copper, some even steal it from the live power poles.

DYOR

View attachment 145026

Copper is like diamonds, miner’s keep digging it up, financiers keep fudging the inventory books.

 

[redsmartie]

Kitco metals has LME inventory seesawing up and down, not sure where the goldilocks zone is for LME copper but I guess I should say.... DYOR

 

[frugal.rock]

So, it appears LME levels have dropped on average 30-50% over the last 5 years, or around 6 to 10% per year using a level from 5 years ago.

Expected tonnage usage per year is expected to increase at least 5% per year over the next 15 years or so.

 

[aus_trader]

Don't really know where the prices will fluctuate in the short to mid term...

But I think there will be increased copper demand if the world is slowly moving away from fossil fuels and in with the electrification of everything from EVs to solar/wind powered grid etc. EV motors and wind turbines use tons of Cu for example. Is there going to be enough supply from mining and recycling well into the future ?

 

[Knobby22]

Don't really know where the prices will fluctuate in the short to mid term...

But I think there will be increased copper demand if the world is slowly moving away from fossil fuels and in with the electrification of everything from EVs to solar/wind powered grid etc. EV motors and wind turbines use tons of Cu for example. Is there going to be enough supply from mining and recycling well into the future ?

Aluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.

 

[Value Collector]

Aluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.

I wouldn’t say copper/Aluminium substitution sets a ceiling on the copper price, because there are so many areas where copper can’t be substituted, but substitution is a factor that will destroy some demand as the price rises.

So it doesn’t put a ceiling on the price, but it does act a bit like an elastic band putting more downward pressure to the price the higher it goes.

There is also factors that increase supply of scrap as the price rises.

 

[divs4ever]

Aluminium is an alternate material if the price of copper increases too much which sets a ceiling however I can't see the demand for copper falling.

but isn't energy costs the big millstone around aluminum's neck ( more so than copper ) surely energy costs will track the price of copper unless the world switches to more nuclear power

 

[aus_trader]

On a long term chart (weekly) Cu price has found support on previous major resistance area in 2018 and bounced...

 

[JohnDe]

"..on a year over year basis Copper prices are down 21%" Cathy Wood

'Copper futures dropped to their lowest in a month below $3.40 per pound on Friday and were down nearly 8%' Trading Economics

 

[Sean K]

Start saddling up punters.

 

[signalFollower]

Start saddling up punters.

View attachment 146768

with the low AISC anticipated from having the government as a JV partner in an already low wages environment, I'll take $1300 / lb with my AAU holdings

 

[peter2]

Copper showing some demand at 3.30. Hoping it would make a new low before seeing buyers. China's needs remain low so POC could go lower. I'm definitely a buyer btn 3.10 - 3.20 but will have to use US ETFs or FCX as OZL isn't responding to POC atm. 29M is a bit thin and SFR has huge power costs to worry about in Europe. Not interested in copper wannabe's.