Copper

peter2 said:

The tough times continue for Dr Copper. The Dr is not seeing many Chinese patients and it looks like the Dr may have caught Covid.

Copper has now fallen >20% from the recent exuberant high.

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Really hoping that there's some demand at $4.00/lb. Won't mind if it stays at this level for a few months while China works through it's stockpiles. We copper bulls will rub the patina off our copper stocks and they'll shine again next qtr.

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Depends on your time frames I think.

Are you turning into a copper bear, P2?

Unless there's a global depression, around $4 looks like long term buy with your ears pinned back to me.

Bear?
I'm holding A1M, CSC, MAC, SFR totaling 25% of portfolio. I'll add to these when they rally next. Looking at COPX (add on) FCX, SCCO in the US.

The market and you desperados got a bit over excited in the last rally. You went off a bit early, pre-mature exuberance I call it. We old-timers know that a slow and steady pace will see the trend last longer. The conditions aren't right yet. We've got to wait until China is ready.

If we see copper back at $3.6/lb (10% lower) I'll be digging up @Garpal Gumnut gold bars and cash them into copper rods.

Do you see what I see?

Heh heh. Bought a soupcon of COPX tonight at the low.

Sean K said:

Unless there's a global depression, around $4 looks like long term buy with your ears pinned back to me.

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are we so sure there isn't ( a Global Depression )

some areas are plagued with tent cities , financial data defies logic , as do some investing moves ( like leveraging Treasuries 5 times over and more ,)government sections actively suppressing the free-flow of information , ... and the stirrings of civil unrest around the world

given the clean energy and AI narratives it seems infrastructure spending doesn't match the predicted outcomes

my copper exposure is via BHP , S32 , AIS ( where i have a low-ball top-up order in the market ) and various gold miners where copper is a co-product

Engaging Copper discussion which I've also posted on the WIRE thread. Sees a good chance of a retrace of Cu to $3.50 with only a slim chance of retesting back to the 2.60 top of his buy zone that came off the Mar 2020 low.

I just put in an extremely low-ball bid for some copper on tomorrows US market, only enough to wet my toe if the price comes down that low.

Spot copper dipping below US$4.
60 day chart is closing price, so today/night not showing yet.

Not Held
Am considering the WIRE etf if Cu goes to $3.50, which I suspect will eventually happen fwiw.

Copper prices will come under further pressure as it is revealed that Chinese stockpiling of copper is spilling over to other countries.
From Zero hedge


Mick

Another commodity chart not looking that solid 39500 key

Some copper stock ideas and discussion

SFR, MAC, EVN, TECK, FFR

my copper exposure is mostly via gold ( and mixed mineral ) miners like EVN , BHP and AIS ( but had a very nice ride on OZL )

hasn't been the graveyard of funds like ( most of ) my nickel miners , but not many copper plays catch my buying appetite

Any hedge fund managers here care to explain where to now for copper stocks? I hold SFR and AIS in the copper play pen, lock in them profits and offer loans, sounds like a good tactic.

I have watched copper for the past 30 years, and I've learnt that there are better places to invest money. But it does make a decent trading platform, if you're a good trader with time to watch the market.

I like this chart page, it shows a great comparison.

The recent impulsive selloff in copper has been annoying as the copper miners I'm holding have fallen as well. However price is now at USD$4.00 /lb. I doubt we're going to see a "V" reversal as there's no new stimulus from China for copper. It's possible that POC falls a little lower and I'll be a buyer at 3.80 and back up the truck at 3.60. It falls below 3.50 I'll borrow @Sean K 's truck.

The lower POC may spur some M&A activity. The longer term need for more copper hasn't disappeared, just delayed. BHP was keen on Anglo and the lower POC should spur more interest.

Does look very nice over the 25 year period, below $1 USD ...

peter2 said:

.The lower POC may spur some M&A activity. The longer term need for more copper hasn't disappeared, just delayed. BHP was keen on Anglo and the lower POC should spur more ininterest.

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BHP still keen, and to spend money in Chile, (Reuters)

Good morning
AFR Article written by Alex Gluyas and published 18.11.24 5.15pm: Goldman reveals the best commodities to buy for 2025

In part:
Goldman Sachs is urging investors to choose copper and aluminium over iron ore in 2025 as weak demand from China collides with an excess supply of Australia’s key export, keeping prices below $US100 a tonne.

The warning comes as the spot price of the steelmaking ingredient dropped 1.9 per cent on Friday to $US96.80 a tonne. Iron ore futures in Singapore spiked back above $US100 a tonne on Monday afternoon.

The latest sell-off was fuelled by signs of mounting supply. Shipments from Australia’s Port Hedland hit 45.6 million tonnes in October, taking this year’s total to 472.3 million tonnes – the highest in four years. That is adding to the mountain of stockpiles held at Chinese ports, which are set to enter 2025 at near-record levels.

“The sharp rise in iron ore stocks reflects weak China demand and strong Brazil supply, which should grow further in 2025, along with Australia supply,” said Goldman’s head of commodity research Daan Struyven.

“Without a significant increase in demand, which is not our base case, an iron ore price of $US95 a tonne is needed to keep a lid on highly flexible Indian shipments and rebalance the market.”
Goldman is tipping prices will average $US95 a tonne next year as stimulus in China proves more supportive of base metals, rather than iron ore. ANZ also forecasts prices at that level in the short term, while Westpac is even more bearish, tipping prices to slump past $US90 into next year.
Goldman warned that Beijing’s ongoing stimulus measures would have a limited impact on domestic steel consumption, and also flagged the risk of tariffs on Chinese exports under US President-elect Donald Trump.
“Potential tariffs pose a downside risk to flat steel apparent consumption, which has been a bright spot this year, and could bring domestic steel prices lower, reducing mills’ profitability,” Mr Struyven said.

Golden era​

China’s stimulus is instead expected to boost demand for copper and aluminium, as the world’s second-largest economy shifts its focus away from the property sector and looks to secure supply for the energy transition.

That is evident in growing sales of so-called new energy vehicles – electric cars and hybrids – with volumes last month up 66.4 per cent on a year earlier.

Goldman is tipping copper prices will average $US10,160 a tonne next year, representing around 13 per cent upside from current levels. Prices dropped below $US9000 a tonne last week for the first time in two months.

Morgan Stanley highlighted copper as its most preferred base metal next year, predicting prices will climb to $US9500 a tonne by the end of 2025.

Goldman sees aluminium averaging $US2700 a tonne, nearly 3 per cent higher than Monday’s price.

The forecasts form part of Goldman’s 2025 outlook, in which it warned investors to prepare for an “unusually wide range” of shifts in trade, energy and fiscal policy under Mr Trump.


It said that scenario strengthened the role that commodities would play in diversifying portfolios next year.