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Copper

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peter2 said:
Woo hoo. Copper bursting through the 4.00 level. This, without any China stimulus.
FCX.us, SCCO.us, SFR and even poor old 29M are going to the moon.
Click to expand...
hard to be ahead of you, Pete

Copper: Copper prices rallied 3.2%, breaking above the key US$4.0 level to levels not seen since April 2023. Top Chinese copper smelters jointly agreed to production cuts at some loss-making plants to cope with a shortage of the raw material, according to Reuters. The agreement comes as fees to process copper concentrate have dropped to their lowest in more than a decade. The Global X Copper Miners ETF opened 2.3% higher overnight and finished the session up 6.0%. This should drive a strong response for local copper names (not that we have many left). A few notable names to watch include Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR), 29Metals (ASX: 29M) and Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS).

- from Kerry Sun at Market Index
 
Dona Ferentes said:
hard to be ahead of you, Pete
Click to expand...

Yep, I haven't slept yet. I am swinging FCX and had the easiest day trade on SCCO that I'll ever get for an easy +3R.

Waiting for the open with a few orders, including one that might surprise you (you may have to stand on your head for this one or be inverse if you know what I mean). I'll sleep today hoping I'll awake for the 3:30pm tennis game. Life is good.
 
I have replaced the "Great Comment" Star a gave you this Morning P2
It seems Crab mentality Deleted my Post and my Emoji to you AGAIN!

It makes me so happy to know "it" is So Unhappy they can't Learn from me any Longer LOL!
 

Copper's looming structural shortage comes into focus, says Cupel's Nicole Adshead-Bell​


(Kitco News) - Copper prices are at the beginning of a big run, said Cupel Advisory Director Nicole Adshead-Bell.

On Thursday Adshead-Bell recorded Digging Deep with Kitco Correspondent Paul Harris.

Copper had a good week, hitting a seven-month high on news that China plans to mothball loss-making smelters. Reduced supply strengthens the long-term bull case for copper, noted Adshead-Bell.

"The price is moving now [because] market participants are finally starting to realize that there is a very material, looming structural-shortage in primary copper supply," said Adshead-Bell.

She added that the copper breakout has been a long time coming. Energy transition and artificial intelligence is going to require a lot more copper, and years of sub-$4 a pound copper has not been enough incentive to get miners to invest in new mines.

"I think this is the very beginning of what I would say is a parabolic rise in the copper price," said Adshead-Bell. "We need that [price] rise to incentivize new supply. Copper is the critical commodity. Without copper none of the green energy, net zero and energy transition occurs."
 


Australia last year exported $124.1 billion worth of iron ore last financial year and $12.27 billion in copper.

Citi headlines a growing chorus of market pundits tipping copper’s rally to extend into next year amid improving demand for electric vehicles, and solar and wind power generation.

The booming AI sector will also drive demand given it is used to distribute power within, and to, data centres in the US, and globally, analysts noted.

The rally in copper has also had an outsized influence on the Australian dollar compared to iron ore as the base metal is increasingly viewed as an indicator of economic growth, particularly in China.

Citi recommended that investors start buying the metal over the next three to six months, advising that any price below $US9000 was “cheap”. The broker sees prices hitting $US10,000 a tonne by the end of this year, before reaching $US12,000 the year after that.

Goldman Sachs is similarly bullish, declaring over the weekend that “copper’s time is now” as supply risks continue to mount.

The broker noted that London Metal Exchange stockpiles have nearly halved from their peak in the fourth quarter last year. However, contrasting figures released last week showed that copper inventories at Shanghai warehouses have surged to the highest level since the onset of the pandemic.

Markets were also spooked after smelters in China pledged to control capacity by rearranging maintenance work, reducing runs and delaying the startup of new projects. But they stopped short of outright production cuts.

“The supply shock which began with aggressive concentrate destocking and then sharp mine supply downgrades last year, has now advanced to an increasing bind on metal production,” said Goldman metals strategist Nicholas Snowdon.
 
The anticipated pull-back in the copper price started today (pre US session). Will be monitoring the US session as they'll BTD or sell it down further. Would like to see demand step up at 4.00 to keep the price with a 4 tag. If this doesn't hold it then the 3.93 must hold for my bullish case to remain intact.

 
My IGO holdings have been hammered in the last few months. Too late to sell now but may use the losses to tax-loss harvest (selling IP within 2 years). They may also be exposed to a take over also but the price offered may not be anywhere near my cost base.

 

That's due to Ni and Li. Copper probably the only thing holding this up.
 

From this Evening Market Index Wrap by Carl Capolingua​

High Grade Copper Futures (COMEX)​


Copper has done well, but it's approaching a few key overhead historical supply points​

I brought this chart to your attention in the Evening Wrap on Thursday 14 March. It's easy to see on the chart above which candle triggered that update! It's the big white one which blasts through three overhead points of supply between 3.93 and 4.00.

A couple of vital components of my technical analysis method are in evidence in this chart. The first is the importance of big white candles. You might think: Ooh, that's gone up a lot, probably too far, I can't buy that now. I think: Ooh, that's gone up a lot, there must be a pile of excess demand, and that's exactly what I'm looking for in a buying opportunity.

Nothing is ever too high to buy for me if the trends, price action and candles continue to demonstrate a state of excess demand. It's a state of mind. It's not for everyone.

The second component is the expectation that very strong areas of historical supply will tend to act as equally strong areas of future demand. We can see from the chart above how the 3.93 to 4.00 supply zone provided a very strong area where demand flooded back in to buy the pullback.

Yesterday's candles is another large white candle (it's the second last on the chart because the last candle is live and refers to today's evolving session). This time, a very important supply point at 4.13 has fallen by the wayside. and It now too moves to demand.

There's nothing in this chart which suggests the price can't continue in its short term trend (with the long term trend transitioning from down to up and the long term uptrend ribbon now confirmed as dynamic support). 4.33 and 4.3725 are the next two key points of historical supply.

I will conduct a comprehensive technical analysis overview of the ASX Copper sector in a special edition of tomorrow's ChartWatch .
 

AI could add 1 million tons to copper demand by 2030, says Trafigura

Copper demand linked to artificial intelligence and data centres could add up to one million metric tons by 2030 and exacerbate supply deficits towards the end of the decade, commodity trader Trafigura said. The energy transition, which includes electric vehicles and renewable energy...
finance.yahoo.com
 

Copper price climbs to 14-month high

After soaring above $US9000 per tonne earlier this month, copper prices continue to surge higher and are now nudging $US9400/t.
www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au
After soaring above $US9000 per tonne earlier this month, copper prices continue to surge higher and are now nudging $US9400/t. What is fuelling this?
 
Good evening noirua,
According to Alex Gluyas from the AFR (Apr 12, 2024 – 1.13pm), "... extremely tight supply coinciding with a rebound in demand for the metal used in electric vehicles, catapulting copper to its highest price since January last year." Moreover, "The rally in copper has headlined the return of the reflation trade to global markets, fuelled by a rebound in economic activity which also threatens to reignite a fresh wave of inflation."

Have a very nice weekend

Kind regards
rcw1
 

High Grade Copper COMEX​


Demand retains the upper hand in the battle for the copper price​

The other key metals chart we’ve been watching closely is High Grade Copper which trades on the COMEX exchange in the USA. In earlier ChartWatch updates I noted that we’d likely see some supply manifesting itself between historical points of supply at 4.33 and 4.3725.

We did – in the form of several black candles and upward pointing shadows.

None of these candles were decisive in terms of demonstrating that the supply side had wrestled back control, however. Today’s candle (still live) could be the one to confirm the demand-side has dispensed with the excess supply in this zone, and higher points of supply are in the offing. 4.49 is the next point of supply along.

Demand is at 4.13 – 4.2285, but on a close above 4.3725 it will move to 4.33 – 4.3725.

The ST trend remains intact while the price continues to close above the short term trend ribbon.

- Kerry Sun from Market Index, doing some good rear view stuff
 
It's been a very good six months for Dr Copper. A decent pause may be required for a healthy rise to ATHs, but that's not far away.

 
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