Do you guys think that it is mainly sentiment affecting the price of this stock ? it seems to me the underlying fundamentals have not changed that much at all. Their last quarter report was pretty in line... i don't see reason for such punishment on this stock.
BNB - Babcock & Brown
- Thread starter Dakaz
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Yeah, you're right, I was more than a tad hysterical at times. I had 6000 BNB shares, and hated seeing my money go down the drain.
I was hoping that I was wrong and that it would bounce back. They didn't, and I don't believe they will bounce back in any meaningful way.
Didn't realise you were such a perfect investor yourself - am I to assume that you are a very very rich then? Or you hoping to become rich via continuing to hold your BNB shares?
Talk about shooting the messenger.............
I believe that the fundamentals are not healthy. When a company needs to revalue real estate in such a dubious manner to get a healthy looking profit, it shows that something is lacking. There is plenty of other spin coming from the company, some of which I have previously mentioned, but plenty of other stuff.
Does a healthy company need to spin?
We are living in a different world that we were a few months ago. Plentiful debt, rising asset values are no longer the norm. Furthermore, investors are more and more cynical about satellite funds paying huge fees to their creator.
Just like a few years back manufacturing was on the decline in Australia, I believe that this is the time for Babcock style companies to be on the decline.
Point taken, and I agree with you Reece.
As for Groundwork, I've seen some of his past posts. He got margin called on Challenger. So he's probably just bitter about losing most of his money and wants to find an outlet.
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haha relax Mr T I am flattered you have checked up on my posts... seems your emotions are getting the better of you... perhaps, share trading isn't for you?
my point is the fundamanetals of how BNB have done business have changed vey little over the past few years... it seems there are a lot of investors (yourself included) who turned a blind eye to how they do business when you first invested or when the share price was going along nicely at $20-35...
i made some big money trading BNB last few years... I am sitting on some big losses this year... for me the goal posts havent changed though, i have understood the risks with their business model from day dot... i still have confidence in the company so the whilst the current SP concerning, it doesnt change anything for me personally (i am trading medium to long term)...
As for you point about margin calls in the CGF thread you tracked down... as i mentioned in that post, it was in reference to the correction in August last year, so i doubt i am still upset about it... also note, that you get margin called on your whole portfolio, i chose to sell CGF at twice the value it is today... thus making the point that it was a "blessing in disguise"...
anyway, let's get back to talking BNB...
my point is the fundamanetals of how BNB have done business have changed vey little over the past few years... it seems there are a lot of investors (yourself included) who turned a blind eye to how they do business when you first invested or when the share price was going along nicely at $20-35...
i made some big money trading BNB last few years... I am sitting on some big losses this year... for me the goal posts havent changed though, i have understood the risks with their business model from day dot... i still have confidence in the company so the whilst the current SP concerning, it doesnt change anything for me personally (i am trading medium to long term)...
As for you point about margin calls in the CGF thread you tracked down... as i mentioned in that post, it was in reference to the correction in August last year, so i doubt i am still upset about it... also note, that you get margin called on your whole portfolio, i chose to sell CGF at twice the value it is today... thus making the point that it was a "blessing in disguise"...
anyway, let's get back to talking BNB...
Hmm, I don't doubt the margin call was a blessing in disguise, bottom liine is that once someone gets margin called one thing is for sure - they don't have much equity left (by definition). Which means they don't have much wealth left in comparative terms.
You can criticise me, abuse me, say what you want. Bottom line is that I clearly have done much better in creating wealth with shares than you have. I have never been anywhere near a margin call, and despite making a 60K loss on BNB have done very well in the market in recent years. Even this year has not been too bad in net terms with the recent rise in BHP.
All the abuse and nastiness in the world won't give you your money back.
Yes, lets get back to BNB. I'll say a bit more later, for now I want to point out some more of their recent "spin".
I listened to the recording on their website regarding their new debt and equity raising.
I found the following comments a bit strange, and have put my thoughts in brackets.
15:15
Person on phone: "to what extent the equity raising was a trade-off to increase in margin?"
Phil Green: "the banks found out about equity raising the same time you did. It was not part of the approval at all"
(I find it strange that the banks were not informed about the equity raising beforehand. A bit unbelievable? If it is true, I don't think that the banks would be happy about not being previously informed)
17:20
Person on phone:
"Could give more information about asset sales you have penciled in for 3 months...are we talking more about wind asets?"
Phil Green: "We don't necessarily expect the wind asset sales to be completed by the end of June"
(But hold on, didn't BNB and BBW just a while ago say there were going to sell wind assets to "prove" to the market that BBW's assets were being undervalued by the market?)
34:48:
Phil Green: there's been a lot of talk and focus on our us multifamily portfolio. That continues to perform strongly in almost perfect macro conditions for that portfolio where tenants that may have been aspirational and got subprime mortgages and gone and bought their own homes can't do that. Obviously there is still household creation in the
US, that hasn't slowed down. With young people leaving home, immigration, etc, in terms of the location, they are in the south, in areas where the economy is supported by energy and soft commodities.There have been no material increases in unemployment which we admit could lead to delinquencies in rental payments. But at the end of the day, people try to pay
the rent, whatever their economic circumstances. And the reality is we're seeing increasing vacancies, increasing rents, and in fact, I've seen a couple of recent analyst reports..
(This is regarding the American portfolio that was revalued upwards of $100m in their P & L when American property values are going South. Nowhere does he try to even defend the revaluation. Just goes on around the issue and talks about issues that aren't in dispute, eg, that the rental return is good. No one disputes the rental return, it's how he got the $100m in revaluation that we are interested in.)
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haha MR T all i can say is your posts are always entertaining... keep building that wealth mate, you are doing a great job...
as for the comments... phil green is all over the shop... he complained that the market doesnt understand and undervaslues BNB, but he keeps sending out bamboozling messages and contradictions like you have highlighted... at times like these we can't afford for the market to lose any more trust in BNBs management...
Shall do so mrgroundwork
...I've always been strong on resources in the last few years (partially b/c I've been to China for work quite a few times and seen what is happening there)...but if resources start doing badly and I lose most of my money, I'll take your example when that happened to you and start being nasty and patronising to people on forums!! Hopefully this will help me make me feel better about being such a loser. And if it doesn't I can always accuse the market of not correctly valuing my shares.Now back to BNB: IMHO, if Phil Green was more open about the problems in BNB, talked about it in a more balanced way and presented a fairer set of financials, he would have much more credibility. If his general approach was "there are big problems here, this is how we are approaching them....." rather than "everything is excellent, we're just misunderstood" I think the market would be more likely to take him seriously. I realise that he is acknowledging there are some problems, but frankly, his mild acknowledgment does not reflect the severity of the problems. Hell, he won't even admit that some of their major assets have dropped in value, still spinning the line that infrastructure asset values are as strong as ever.
Which is a pity. Cause until recently, Mr Green had a reputation as a man of great integrity.
I will say this much positive about BNB: the people running it and many of its staff are very very aggressive and clever. Possibly clever enough to adapt to the new world that we live in. Just possibly.
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Mr T alright alright... i get it.... you win at the interweb, trading & life... can't a poor guy like me just be friends with a wealthy guy like you? perhaps you can lend me some seed capital to reinvest back into Challenger or Babcock?
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Good debate in this thread .
The market is always the decider when it comes to share price , unfortunate as it is sometimes . The BNB model as I see it , leans more to the side of cash flows rather than debt levels of assets under ....... management .
For a company that thinks it's not an investment bank , it's leveraging and CDO's make me wonder sometimes , what they think they are then ..........
One would think they'd best keep the cash flows strong based on the model gearing .
Each time I look at it though , those gearing levels tweak a hinge in my neck ....... so to speak , when I compare them against other asset buyers gearing levels .
The gearing level makes me think they are a mainstream leverage manager , if not an investment bank .
Sure looks like an investment bank though and looks like a mini Mackers to me , hence the mini price at present nah , it hasn't gotten back to issue levels , still up what 120 % , or around there .
I think the market is just saying they are on edge with companies with high debt levels , especially ones that look like a .... claytons bank ???
The entire model confuses me , so I suppose some of the market must be confused too . But when in doubt , the market generally does not hesitate .
Refinancings etc. have taken there toll on most market participants in the sector , even the big four , ........... so why not BNB ?
The market is always the decider when it comes to share price , unfortunate as it is sometimes . The BNB model as I see it , leans more to the side of cash flows rather than debt levels of assets under ....... management .
For a company that thinks it's not an investment bank , it's leveraging and CDO's make me wonder sometimes , what they think they are then ..........
One would think they'd best keep the cash flows strong based on the model gearing .
Each time I look at it though , those gearing levels tweak a hinge in my neck ....... so to speak , when I compare them against other asset buyers gearing levels .
The gearing level makes me think they are a mainstream leverage manager , if not an investment bank .
Sure looks like an investment bank though and looks like a mini Mackers to me , hence the mini price at present
nah , it hasn't gotten back to issue levels , still up what 120 % , or around there .I think the market is just saying they are on edge with companies with high debt levels , especially ones that look like a .... claytons bank ???
The entire model confuses me , so I suppose some of the market must be confused too . But when in doubt , the market generally does not hesitate .
Refinancings etc. have taken there toll on most market participants in the sector , even the big four , ........... so why not BNB ?
I put this on the Macquarie portion of this forum. Since BNB and Macquarie have many similarities (though many differences as well) I've put it here as well:
The Economist has written an EXCELLENT article on Macquarie this week. Luckily, it's available online for free.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11052919
The Economist has written an EXCELLENT article on Macquarie this week. Luckily, it's available online for free.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11052919
seems to have broken through a 15.70 barrier.. will be interesting to see what it does now.. as it appears credit markets are beginning to stabilize.. but who knows...
If any charting expert would like to give an opinion on key price points of this stock that will be great.
If any charting expert would like to give an opinion on key price points of this stock that will be great.
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Love to have a look at commsec's approved securities list, is it one page or two? Actually I did and BNB are still being advertised as approved (70%).
You would think they would update it or place a special announcement on the entry point
Actually I did and BNB are still being advertised as approved (70%).You would think they would update it or place a special announcement on the entry point
