Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BNB - Babcock & Brown

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Garpal Gumnut said:
Agree, and if it breaks below those April lows and goes below that $11.50 old resiatance a gozillion stop losses from funds will kick in and it will go who knows where.

gg
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I for one, would see anything sub $12 as a magnificent buying opportunity for BNB.
In comparison to the overall market since the start of the year, BNB has been hammered and arguably oversold. Same goes for Macquarie bank. Financial market jitters prevail and nervous investors have put their money into resources instead. Fair enough, but as volatile as BNB is at the moment, and as treacherous it is for short term players, current prices seem to be pretty good for the long term investor.
 
BraceFace said:
I for one, would see anything sub $12 as a magnificent buying opportunity for BNB.
In comparison to the overall market since the start of the year, BNB has been hammered and arguably oversold. Same goes for Macquarie bank. Financial market jitters prevail and nervous investors have put their money into resources instead. Fair enough, but as volatile as BNB is at the moment, and as treacherous it is for short term players, current prices seem to be pretty good for the long term investor.
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Could be, but who's to say how far the knife will drop? In all probability, this will eventually recover, but there's still a chance of a complete implosion.

This is one of the worst charts on the ASX.

:eek:
 

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I won't invest in this simply because I'm scared it'll go under.

Even if it does look good on the charts and extremely cheap and its a good business.
 
vishalt said:
I won't invest in this simply because I'm scared it'll go under.

Even if it does look good on the charts and extremely cheap and its a good business.
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Now that they're refinanced their debt it's very unlikely that they will go under.

What I think bothers the market is the neverending "blue skies" messages coming from BNB which appear to have little bearing to their real world problems.

Lets see them come out and say "we revalued property upwards that we in fact made a loss on - this will be accounted for as a cost in this year's Profit & Loss". Lets hear them say "our profit predictions are unrealistic, times are tough, we are revising them downwards". I think the market will react positively to such transparency and openess if it feels this is going to be their new habit.

As it is, there's a lot of justified scepticism out there to the opaque structure that BNB is. Yes, I realise Macquarie is infinitely more opaque, but they also have some things going for them that BNB don't.
 
Yes, it's Mayne's voice doing the asking. Green does the initial answering, then Babcock puts in his bit afterwards.
 
This is from Crikey, subscriber only:


Macquarie does nothing as Babcock reviews everything

New Macquarie Group CEO Nicholas Moore pioneered the listed infrastructure fund model with two deals: the 1994 float of Hills Motorway Group housing Sydney’s M2 tollroad and the 1996 float of Infrastructure Trust Australia (now Macquarie Infrastructure Group) after the $4.85 billion purchase of Victoria’s Loy Yang A power station.

Fast forward 13 years and 6 months from the Hills Motorway compliance listing and Macquarie is the world’s biggest owner of infrastructure. There are literally dozens of listed and unlisted infrastructure funds around the world controlled by Macquarie and its various imitators, many of whom are also Australian.

MFS and Allco were the last two impersonators and both are now on their last legs, leaving just Babcock & Brown and, to a lesser extent, Challenger, fighting on in the space.

Shares in most of the funds, along with the Macquarie and Babcock parent companies, have tanked in recent months but Macquarie isn’t taking a backward step.

Indeed, the Millionaire Factory has just elevated Nicholas Moore to be CEO of the whole group and Macquarie Airports chairman Max Moore-Wilton responded with this belligerent spray when I suggested at the recent AGM that the third party listed fund model was dead. MAP shares have since fallen further to a 40% discount to net tangible assets but Moore-Wilton doesn’t see the problem.

Contrast that with Babcock & Brown CEO Phil Green who responded to a similar comment about the broken model at his AGM on Friday by welcoming the suggestion and admitting everything was on the table for review. You won’t hear too many mea culpas quite like that one.

Green later backed off at the post-AGM press conference, according to Stuart Washington’s report in The SMH on Saturday.

One explanation of the different approaches is that Babcock doesn’t have Macquarie’s market and balance sheet strength to withstand the current onslaught.

Whilst the Millionaires Factory was quite happy to let its Macquarie Fortress fund collapse, which it almost did, Babcock rapidly stepped in to privatise Babcock & Brown Environment at 50c a share, half the float price.

And now we have the prospect of Babcock bailing out its power fund, suggesting there is some sort of implied guarantee of support from the parent.

Asked what legal obligations the parent had to bail out Babcock & Brown Power, Green said there was none. Listen carefully to his language.

So why’s he doing it? It’s called reputational damage. Investment banks are capitalised reputation and Babcock simply can’t afford BBP to fall over.

But the market is very unhappy as Babcock & Brown shares tumbled 4% to a 3 year low of $11.97 in morning trade. Macquarie is also off 2% today but it remains 15% above the recent low it hit in March
 
Bell Potter has a 12 month price target of $25 on this stock as of 30th of may. What does everyone think ?
I've been a long time investor of this one and have been hit hard... :eek:
 
VViCKiD said:
Bell Potter has a 12 month price target of $25 on this stock as of 30th of may. What does everyone think ?
I've been a long time investor of this one and have been hit hard... :eek:
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I think like most stockbrokers, they have their heads up their rear ends. They either in denial or just not being honest.
 
Surely this one has to be oversold... my God this is crazy..... :banghead::banghead: Does any one have any opinions on this stock or MQG ? There hasn't beeen any anouncements yet it's sold off like crazy
 
VViCKiD said:
Surely this one has to be oversold... my God this is crazy..... :banghead::banghead: Does any one have any opinions on this stock or MQG ? There hasn't been any anouncements yet it's sold off like crazy
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I hear you and feel your pain. IMO it is grossly underrated and oversold but in saying that I feel that a turnaround for this spanked baby is in the very distant future:mad:
If you don't want to sell at a loss just delete it from your portfolio so you don't have to watch it die little by little each day:
I disclose holding both BNB & MQG and to taking strong anti-depressants
 
i couldn't take the heat any longer so i sold out my remaining holdings this morning. End of financial year is coming so pererhaps some people are taking their losses to offset against their gains.
 
VViCKiD said:
Surely this one has to be oversold... my God this is crazy..... :banghead::banghead: Does any one have any opinions on this stock or MQG ? There hasn't beeen any anouncements yet it's sold off like crazy
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After seeing what happened in US last night I guessed this would happen, not becaue it is directly related but that damn sentiment again. I too hold MQG and BNB, maybe the turn is a bit far off, But i just cant see these guys staying down forever, surely they can adapt to changing situations. They just dont seem to get any sympathy in the market though!
 
I agree... these 2 have been gang-raped like there is no tommorow. I think it's primarily sentiment that's affecting this stock... BNB has a PER of ~6 now !! wtf !?!?!! wat a joke... maybe once they begin selling off infrastructure and reducing gearring, will the market sentiment improve again.. anyone know when they are due to sell wind farm facilities ?
 
Just be patient my friends, it would not be that bad. Just the market panic driving a big sell off. It will be Ok in next few weeks.

If you do have cash on hand, hold on to it. You would get rewards.

IMHO. DYOR.
 
crap... another down day for BNB ..... this is driving me crazy... getting close to my stop-losss at $10:banghead::banghead::banghead:
i can't believe this one... at least MQG is recovering... I can't think of any logical reason for the selling... Does anyone know when they are scheduled to be selling off their windfarms ?
 
Just curious.. Is it possilbe for BnB to become and Allco? ..

I don't know why it is being sold off like it is.. but at the same time.. it's not giving people a lot of confidence to buy in.. other than it being dirt cheap...
 
finally listened to that mp3 question yesterday, interesting. At least they getting it out there. Maybe what BNB really needs is to be separated a bit from MQG? Which may happen if they change their structure/plans a little, and it wont get quite as hammered a long with MQG.

It probably doesnt recover as much as MQG because of its size and not as big reputation?? But cops = flack as mqg damnit! thats not fair
 

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