April 2025 DDD

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/s...ovide-nuclear-microreactors-us-military-bases

I like uranium here for a long trade:



Plays into the longer term trend of reshoring.

Reshoring will require gobs of energy. Nuclear will increasingly play a role particularly as oil will become highly political. US oil independence will revolve largely around shale. The Trump administration do not seem to be shale friendly.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

US/China imports/exports:https://www.azcentral.com/story/ent...us-tariffs-imports-exports-trump/83008270007/



Cutting China out of global manufacturing chains will simultaneously send inflation surging to levels that blow up western sovereign bond markets again in 5 days or less. While severely pressuring China into dumping the USD-denominated assets it has recycled USD surpluses into, Bessent’s plan is certain to force the Fed into YCC or its functional equivalent.

Now remember, Bessent was working for Soros when Soros blew up the Bank of England, forcing a devaluation of the Pound.

Bessent isn’t trying to “break the PBOC like he broke the BOE” as some have postulated. He’s “breaking the Fed like he broke the BOE”.

Bessent’s plan is certain to collapse the global bond market as was empirically proven with MOVE at 172 but the Trump Administration also just showed us that they will never let the UST market collapse. So Bessent’s plan will force the Fed into YCC or its functional equivalent. Sending USD down and inflation up on a slight lag.



Essentially what Bessent plans to do is replace the UST market as a recycling post for trade deficits to gold. Gold will once again be the neutral reserve asset.

I thought that gold would see $4000oz this year. Now with the speed that the Trump administration is breaking stuff I think that $6000oz is on the cards or essentially 100% from current prices.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Worth a watch:




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duc

 

[Sean K]

Worth a watch:




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duc

An hour 50! I might be dead by then.

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

KILL the dollar , might be an exaggeration

now the US dollar may die from self-inflected wounds

lose the reserve currency status ( for the USD ) hmmm that is possible

 

[qldfrog]

jog on
duc

I find hard to believe that the HKD could be the one, Hong Kong is a very tired center and with its integration within mainland China, i believe this is not going to happen.
They will use a bric currency instead
I would not even be surprised if the HKD is just cancelled and only the renminbi/yuan remains.
Note: but agree on Russia China India huge next economic big thing

 

[ducati916]

One of the most reliable signals of market stress isn’t in the headlines — it’s in swap spreads. Swap spreads measure the difference between what banks pay to swap interest rates (SOFR) and what the U.S. government pays to borrow (Treasuries). When that spread collapses, like it just did, something’s breaking. In 2008, swap spreads collapsed before Lehman. In March 2020, they broke again when the Treasury market froze. Both times, the Fed stepped in. This week, the 30-year swap spread hit a record low last week. Translation? Dealers are under pressure. Liquidity is vanishing.

​

Here’s the real story: Pension funds use swaps to hedge rates while keeping cash free for private investments. Banks hedge those swaps by buying Treasuries — but capital requirements limit how far they can go. When hedge funds unwind and banks can’t pick up the slack, liquidity evaporates. This isn’t just plumbing — it’s the infrastructure behind U.S. debt issuance. If this gets worse, the Fed doesn’t pivot because inflation is tamed. It pivots because the machine is breaking. Watch bonds, not stocks. Buy gold. Sell dollars.

From Steve Miran:






Trump closing the USD financial asset window last week means US deficits which have always been sterilized via the USD in US financial markets by foreign capital inflows into stocks and bonds are no longer being sterilised this way. They are now going to be sterilised via gold, US reshoring, which is US manufacturing plant and associated infrastructure.

The markets seem to believe that after last week's basis trade blow-up, that USD weakness will resolve higher, similar to 2019.

This is highly unlikely unless:

1. The USD trades low enough to balance US trade; or
2. Trump reverses himself on closing the USD financial asset window.


So those calling for a resumption of the stock bull market...


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duc

 

[peter2]

So those calling for a resumption of the stock bull market...

Mate, you left me hanging.

. . . are right on the money.
. . . a bit too early.
. . . are dreaming.

 

[ducati916]

Mate, you left me hanging.

. . . are right on the money.
. . . a bit too early.
. . . are dreaming.

Dreaming....


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:


Pre-tariff frenzy has helped Chinese exports beat expectations in Q1 2025, with total exports rising 12.4% year-over-year in March, triple of analyst expectations and amounting to a hefty $313.9 billion.

- Not even US-China trade saw notable changes last month as Beijing’s trade surplus surged to $27.6 billion on the back of a 4.5% year-over-year increase in bilateral trade.

- Chinese refiners also boosted their crude imports last month, taking in 12.1 million b/d of oil, the highest monthly tally since August 2023, with April preliminary data showing no signs of slowing down this month.

- Judging by Singapore’s bunkering demand data, container throughput in March was the highest since China officially came out of its 2021-2022 lockdowns, indicating that global trade front-loaded operations into Q1 2025, setting the stage for a large Trump tariff-driven slump in Q2.

Market Movers

- One of the most closely followed exploration wells of this year, the Elektra-1 wildcat spudded offshore Cyprus by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) turned out to be dry, sapping hopes of a larger Eastern Mediterranean bonanza.

- French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) inked a 20-year term supply deal for offtake of 1.5 mtpa LNG from the Rio Grande LNG project developed by NextDecade (NASDAQ:NEXT), to be sourced from the prospective Train 4.

- UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has flagged to investors ahead of its April 29 Q1 earnings call that the company will see an increase of $4 billion in total debt, taking its total debt burden to more than $27 billion.

- ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, is reportedly considering buying the US natural gas assets of investment firm Aethon Energy Management, potentially valued at up to $10 billion.

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

As they digest President Trump’s tariff warfare, oil market participants are now correcting their past outlooks. The International Energy Agency carved 300,000 b/d out of its 2025 demand outlook, and OPEC lowered its forecast, too, albeit only by half as much as the IEA. Goldman Sachs, UBS, HSBC, and BNP Paribas have all slashed some $5-15 per barrel from their previous outlooks, with Brent and WTI now trading around $65 and $61.50, respectively.

Iran, US Laud ‘Positive’ Start to Talks. US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi held negotiations in Oman this past weekend that both sides dubbed ‘constructive’, agreeing to hold another round of talks on nuclear proliferation as soon as next weekend.

IEA Forecasts European LNG Boom. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predictsthat Europe’s LNG imports will increase by 25% in 2025, equivalent to 33 billion cubic metres, as the continent needs to replenish depleted stocks and no longer can avail itself of Russian pipeline gas.

Venezuela Takes Over Chevron Cargoes. Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA has ordered Chevron (NYSE:CVX) to return two cargoes of exported crude and cancelled the US major’s upcoming oil loadings, in reaction to US President Trump’s sanction snapback starting May 27.

Colombia’s Gas Ambition Soars. After Colombia confirmed that the Sirius gas prospect contains 6 TCf, the largest gas find in the history of the country, the joint Ecopetrol-Petrobras JV announced it would start offering 135 MMCf/d of gas to the wider market from 2029 onward.

Key Canadian Pipeline to Restart Soon. Canadian midstream firm South Bow (TSE:SOBO) plans to restart the 620,000 b/d Keystone pipeline on Tuesday after flows were halted last week on the back of a 3,500-barrel spill in North Dakota, but it still needs a written PHMSA approval to do so.

UK Pushes China Away From Its Steel Sector. The UK Business Ministry enactedemergency legislation, oddly on a Saturday, to take control of Chinese-owned British Steel after the operator, Jingye Group, refused a $650 million government aid package to repair damaged furnaces.

Italy Mulls Delaying Out Coal Phaseout. Italy’s government is reconsidering the country’s end-2025 mandate to end coal-powered generation in the country, as utility major Enel and oil firm ENI both criticized the policy, calling it a ‘folly’ at a time when Germany maximizes coal to meet demand.

OPEC Cuts Its Demand Outlook on Trade Wars. Reflecting global trade pressures stemming from the US-China trade war, OPEC has lowered its demand forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 by a uniform 150,000 b/d, expecting this year’s oil consumption growth to be 1.3 million b/d.

Saudi Arabia Wants US Nuclear Deal. Saudi Arabia and the US will soon sign a preliminary agreement to develop a civil nuclear industry in the Middle Eastern kingdom, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, although the two sides still negotiate over some non-proliferation clauses.

Beijing Sticks to Its Love of Coal. China’s economic and energy planner NDRC announced that Beijing would continue building coal-fired power plants through 2027 to stabilize the power grid in regions that don’t have enough clean energy potential, moving the country’s coal demand peak to 2028.

The Sky is the Limit for Gold in 2025. US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its year-end forecast for gold to $3,700 per ounce, citing ever-stronger purchasing demand from central banks and higher-than-expected trade war fallout, with the bullion currently trading above $3,200/oz.

Unfazed by Tariffs, Copper Recovers. Donald Trump’s exemption of China-produced consumer electronics from the 145% import tariff has buoyed copper prices and sent the May COMEX contract back to $10,170 per metric tonne during intraday trading, a hefty $1,000/mt higher than LME prices.

Next-Gen US LNG Export Plant Runs into Delays. The Lake Charles LNG project developed by US firm Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) could only be commissioned in 2031 after the midstream major asked for a 3-year deadline extension, citing Biden’s LNG moratorium and the lack of contracting availability as key causes.




There is conflicting data on this. Tom Lee demonstrates otherwise.



Market clearly believes, correctly, that the Fed is the buyer of last resort.




Watch bond yields and USD. $MOVE is high and still creeping higher.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

• The Volatility Index ($VIX) almost closed below 30 today for the first time in two weeks after reaching a five-year high of 52 last Tuesday. It spent most of the day below 30 but closed slightly above.
  
• Jason points out that when the $VIX has dropped from 50 to 30, it has historically been a 'bear killer.' This has only happened four times since the $VIX was created (1987, 2002, 2009, and 2020).
  
• While the sample size is too small to be statistically significant, this hasn't been a bearish signal. The following week was a coin flip, with the $SPX higher 50% of the time. However, $SPX was always higher 12 months later, with a median gain of +17.9%.
  

The Takeaway: The $VIX nearly closed below 30 today after reaching a five-year high of 52 last week. While the sample size is limited, this has historically signaled that the worst of the storm has already passed.


Known uranium deposits will run out by 2080 if demand for nuclear energy continues to grow, industry bodies said.

Several countries have pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, tech firms view the once-controversial technology as a clean way to power data centers, and it is increasingly seen as a reliable source of low-carbon energy.

But it takes 10-15 years to get a new mine running, uranium firms warn, and reserves are concentrated.

There are other reasons for the West to feel a sense of urgency despite the far-off deadline: Russia’s Rosatom commands a significant share of the global nuclear market, OilPrice.com reported, and is responsible for more than half of reactors under construction worldwide.


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duc

 

[ducati916]

FAFO

F*ck around find out. LOL.

Short week. US markets close for Good Friday. Which means that tomorrow could be another very volatile day. Would you want to hold long over a long w/e?

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duc