AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

AUD Monthly and Weekly cycles

Monthly cycles continue to support the AUD, but the pattern that I was looking
for was this Week's 50% level providing the next thrust pattern upwards...

resulting in the last week of the current month rising, and then continuing
higher in MAY, as part of the overall Monthly and Primary cycles

That didn't happen on Monday, and current price action in the short-term looks
weak. (below the Weekly 50% level & moving lower after a 'no-control' weekly bar)

What would look bullish again would be a formation of a Weekly HOOK pattern.

That is when price moves down into Tuesday's 5-day lows, forms support, and
the day closes back above the daily & weekly 50% levels. Weekly HOOK

When that happens, the rest of the current week normally continues to trend
towards higher highs by Friday.

otherwise a break of monthly support & 5-day low breakout on Tuesday, and the entire long term
pattern of rising towards 1.12 is probably over

 

[Frank D]

AUD Monthly and Weekly cycles

What would look bullish again would be a formation of a Weekly HOOK pattern.

That is when price moves down into Tuesday's 5-day lows, forms support, and
the day closes back above the daily & weekly 50% levels. Weekly HOOK

When that happens, the rest of the current week normally continues to trend
towards higher highs by Friday.

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

We nearly have the makings of a Weekly HOOK pattern, we just don't have
the confirming close above the daily 50% levels and Weekly 50% level.....

Therefore I can't be as bullish (higher highs by Friday and then Monday next
week) without that close.

However, the daily 50% level (@11am) will now be the trend guide for
Wednesday, and that continuation upwards might still happen

 

[Trembling Hand]

AUD Weekly and Daily cycles

We nearly have the makings of a Weekly HOOK pattern, we just don't have
the confirming close above the daily 50% levels and Weekly 50% level.....

Therefore I can't be as bullish (higher highs by Friday and then Monday next
week) without that close.

However, the daily 50% level (@11am) will now be the trend guide for
Wednesday, and that continuation upwards might still happen

Nearly there Frank. In fact the AUD looks to be the only one that hasn't made the weekly hook pattern. EURO, ES, DAX, CL and our SPI will today you would think yet the little ol' Aussie is lagging a bit.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles (Autralian Stock Market)

As mentioned in last week's report, there is an expectation that for the trend
to continue higher it needs to revisit support during the current Quarter.

That Support resides around 4252/54.

So if you want to get back into the current trend, then that's the area of interest.

However, as a footnote I also mentioned the possibility that if it breaks Support it
will continue down into the 2nd Quarterly 50% level (Yellow), which has always
been my overall support zone.

Because what we notice using past history to define probable future moves is....

the break of support often occur during the month of MAY, extend down into
lower lows (JUNE/JULY) and then find support.

Therefore 4252/54 can and may continue to follow the same patterns for the
past 3 Quarters and support the trend.

or it's going to follow a similar pattern as past years and break support
and extend lower

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly & Weekly cycles (Autralian Stock Market)

As a footnote I also mentioned the possibility that if it breaks Support it
will continue down into the 2nd Quarterly 50% level (Yellow), which has always
been my overall support zone.

Because what we notice using past history to define probable future moves is....

the break of support often occur during the month of MAY, extend down into
lower lows (JUNE/JULY) and then find support.

SPI is now Down into the 2nd Quarterly Support zones & MAY lows (4143/64)

My view is that the SPI will find Support around these levels and begin to Rise up
and move back towards the 4231-54 over the coming days, and then stall until
the end of the month (June).

That's going to be helped by the S&P 500 finding support at its MAY lows
@ 1315.50 tonight.

However, everything doesn't always go to plan, and that's because the
S&P 500 could be searching for its own 2nd Quarterly 50% level @ 1249, which
is much lower, dragging the SPI lower before it swings upwards into June

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Monthly & Weekly cycles

As mentioned in last weekend's Report....http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com.au/

"My view is that the S&P will once again begin next week with a 2-day reversal
pattern (unless it opens above 1460)...and if that 2nd day closes
below the Weekly 50% level (random Support), the rest of the week
could be moving in the same direction" (DOWN)

We now have the 2-day reversal closing below the Weekly 50% level...

Therefore, the rest of this week is going to follow with continued weakness
(as it remains below 1445), and retests 1425...

or not

 

[Frank D]

CBA:- Primary & Monthly Trends

CBA continues to exhibit a bullish trend as the price is dictated by the higher timeframe 50% levels
as trailing support zones.

As described in my lastest book, "bearish patterns in Bull trends" CBA is now showing a pattern that
can often see the stock reverse its current course. That pattern is the higher step formation
within the monthly cycles and subsquent 1st week rise and higher close (Friday)

Most observers would naturally think CBA should continue to trend higher, and it can certainly can, but
if next week closes back below the October 50% level (Daily close) CBA should reverse down into Support as
the first Target (3 to 6 weeks counter-trend move)

 

[Frank D]

The SPI Monthly Cycles

As noted 2 weeks ago (Weekly Report), if the November 50% levels can't hold because of the
price action in US markets, then the Aussie Market is heading down into 4341.

When we look back over the past number of Quarters, we can see that the SUPPORT in
each 3-month cycle coincides with this same level (RED)...

The only time it didn't was back in MAY this year, 6 months ago, but it did support it for 5-days, &
then followed a break-n-extend pattern into the following Quarterly lows.

Therefore 4341 is seen as SUPPORT during this Quarterly cycle, otherwise it will follow a similar
break-n-extend pattern into the 1st Quarter of 2013

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly Cycles

4th Quarter support @ 4341, with an upside Secondary target @ 4572/93

Primary target 4752 for 2012

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Monthly cycles completing the move into the December highs after finding 4th Quarter Support.

Primary cycles suggest the trend is continuing towards 4752 by January, if not sooner

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary cycles:- Target 2013 Yearly highs @ 4772 – 4849

Long term Support in 2013 @ 4408-4429

Monthly cycles:- target January highs from 4th Quarter support @ 4340

Trailing 1st Quarter support @ 4510 (note:- all levels not confirmed until the close of this week’s trading)

 

[Frank D]

DOW, S&P 500, SPI Futures Monthly cycles

All futures markets have reached their January & 1st Quarterly highs on Thursday.

My view is that after a 3+ week trending period, markets as of next week (or even tonight)
will begin retesting the trailling 5-day lows to begin the new month of February.

Basically January's highs are resistance zones, that can last for the next 5-days.

January's highs:- DOW 13800, S&P 1496, SPI 4792

 

[Plan B]

Long holiday Frank?? Good on you!

Just in case you missed it, Thanks for posting these! Much appreciated.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Weekly Cycles (E-mini Futures)

There are two larger cycles in Play.... #A) February high resistance & finds support at the Weekly lows and then continues up into the March Highs:- forward month.

#B Continues down towards the January high breakout @1474

The Market completed the break & extend pattern from January's highs in a precise top in February @ 1530.

It has now reversed into the Weekly lows, and at this stage we are treating the trend as #A.

Any further weakness with a break of the Weekly lows will retest the January breakout @ 1474 and then quickly resume its upward trend.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Monthly & Weekly Cycles…

S&P continues to remain in an upward trend:- Target March highs.

We saw a break of the Weekly lows earlier this week, but it didn’t precisely hit my downward
target of 1474, but as we can see, it has quickly resumed its upward trend.

What we also notice is that the current price action struggles to break the random Resistance zone
around 1520.

Therefore there is still the possibility that there’s downward pressure early next week towards 1474,
which is now matched with the MARCH 50% level.

1474 is seen as Support

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly & Weekly Cycles

As illustrated in previous Weekly reports, the Monthly support levels (RED) often provide a robust
entry level during current Quarterly cycle & up into new highs in forward Quarterly
highs:- 3-6 month trend

Current Support resides around 4864

A break of the same Monthly Support level will put pressure on the trend to drop further, until the
same pattern appears into the forward Quarterly cycle providing the next long-term entry level.

Full report in Weekend Report

 

[Frank D]

"As illustrated in previous Weekly reports, the Monthly support levels (RED) often provide a robust entry level during current Quarterly cycle & up into new highs in forward Quarterly highs:- 3-6 month trend:- Current Support resides around 4904

A break of the same Monthly Support level will put pressure on the trend to drop further, until the same pattern appears into the forward Quarterly cycle providing the next long-term entry level:- that long term entry level is @ 4673"


SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Whilst the trend is above the Yearly highs @ 4853, there's an expectation that the upward trend will continue for the next 2 years, as it follows the Dilernia Principle:- Break & extend pattern towards the 2014 Yearly highs.

We can now see that the Current Support level in the 2nd Quarter has held (RED), and if the trend is going to continue higher, then traders will know that a breakout of the 5-day highs next week will help validate that pattern.

However, a break of the 5-day lows next week ( SUPPORT), and often the trend will move in the opposite direction:- towards 4678

At this stage we should be looking for the Primary trend to continue higher.

 

[Frank D]

GOLD Primary cycles

GOLD has broken it's 2013 lows (breakout) and has moved down into long term BUY zones,
within the Primary cycles...@ 1337.73

Expectation is that of a swing back up towards those same breakout lows @ $1527, which is
seen as resistance.

Note:- as mentioned in the Weekly Report, this bear trend can last for 2 years, if this BUY zone
can't hold, then don't touch gold until much lower prices in 2014.

 

[Frank D]

Whilst the trend is above the Yearly highs @ 4853, there's an expectation that the upward trend will continue for the next 2 years, as it follows the Dilernia Principle:- Break & extend pattern towards the 2014 Yearly highs.

We can now see that the Current Support level in the 2nd Quarter has held (RED) @ 4904

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

2nd Quarterly support pattern and above the 2013 highs, providing the means for
the Australian market to remain stable in its upward trend.

 

[Frank D]

GOLD PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

GOLD has continued to move up from the BUY zones towards the 2013 yearly breakout....

trend guide 1439.50

resistance 1527/1547