AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market

As noted in the previous post, the Australian Stock remains in a bear trend with the MAY highs and 2016 50% level stalling the Australian Market, with the expectation that price is moving back down to retest the 2nd Quarter 50% level @ 5090

If the Australian Market is heading higher this level @ 5090 needs to hold in MAY and continuer higher in June.

Keep an eye on the Weekly lows @ 5142, any breakout of these lows and treat the breakout as an Extend Pattern into next week's lows.

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AUD / USD Forex Report

As noted in the previous post AUD hit the exit zone at .7828-50 and has now moved back down, except the Weekly lows and 2016 50% level didn't hold.

A change in fundamentals as the Reserve Bank Cut interest rates last week has changed the ball game.

Treat the Trend as a break and extend pattern towards this week's lows @ .7187. (random support)

Expectation of the AUD going higher has completely changed because of last week's price action on Friday's close and whilst below .7482

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

Treat the Trend as a break and extend pattern towards this week's lows @ .7187. (random support) Previous Report

As noted in the previous report, the trend had changed because of the failure of the Yearly 50% level to hold and the breakout of the Weekly lows.

Once the Weekly lows had broken, we follow the 'Dilernia Principle of Break and Extend" in this case down into .7187, which has now completed.

The overall trend is to continue down into .7038, however don't be surprised to see a rise and retest of the Weekly 50% level and the MAY 50% level beforehand.

In Conclusion:- Trend Down into .7038 with an each way bet on a short-term bounce from this level @ .7187

 

[Frank D]

AUD / USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

The overall trend is to continue down into .7038, however don't be surprised to see a rise and retest of the Weekly 50% level and the Monthly 50% level beforehand.

Primary Trend remains bearish, however we have seen the AUD rise up into the Monthly 50% level (June @.7391) which is now the critical level that may provide the resistance for the AUD to continue lower, if you believe this is the case.

However, keep in mind that Monday can push higher, as part of the 5-day break & extend pattern from
Friday and push above that level towards .7464

To validate weakness in the AUD, you'll need to keep an eye on price moving up on Monday, Tuesday moving
down, and then validate Wednesday with the June 50% level as resistance.

Australian & US market Index reports updated also

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary and Weekly Cycles

if we subscribed to the Primary Cycle 'Dilernia Principle' of continuing higher for the rest of 2017. (Double Bottom Primary Cycle low in the 1st Quarter)

The best pattern would have been the month of MAY moving down into the 2nd Quarter 50% level and then heading higher in June. (Previous Report)

We have seen the price action place out precisely, with the market moving down into the 2nd Quarter 50%
level, and then heading higher using the 3rd Quarter 50% level and the next THRUST pattern upwards.

There maybe random resistance around the August highs @ 5616-5633...

But we need to treat this market as a Primary trend that's heading upwards into 2017, using the expectation of
it following the Principles within my books with short-term pullback along the way.

 

[Plan B]

Frank,

I always like reading your posts but on your blog the 1st August SPX chart doesn't come up on screen.
I'm just assuming it's your end and not mine?

Thanks Frank.

 

[Frank D]

SPI - Australian Stock Market

Expectation that the Australian Market will continue higher into 2017 using the Yearly 50% level and
October 50% level as support.

If we follow text-book 3-month cycles then the 4rd Quarter points to further gains into the end of the year
and early next year.

 

[Frank D]

SPI - AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET

further weakness from the 4th Quarter down into the 1st Quarter lows some time in March2016If that plays out, then I'd look to move back into Long positions in the Aussie Market using the 2016 lows and SUPPORT & ENTRY (SEPTEMBER 2015)
TEXT BOOK sell-off in the Aussie market at the start of January, and we now have both the Australian Markets and US markets in synch. These SELLOFFS at the start of 2016 have all the hallmarks of forming a Double Bottoms around the 2016 Yearly lows. (January 9 2016)

We have seen the Australia Market play out TEXT book patterns within the PRIMARY CYCLE, and with the expectation that the TREND will continue to move towards the 2017 highs in the early part of the year.

There's 2 patterns at play...

1. continues to move upwards into the January highs, which would be a good time to off load some positions.

2. First 10 days of the year sell down into the January 50% level and then continues upwards for the next 3-6 months (MAY).

Note:- Even though it might reach the 2017 highs in the early part of January I think there's more upside in the market. It would be wise to wait for Quarterly 'sell-downs' to get back into the UPTREND.

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market

I still subscribe to the market going higher, but the ideal pullback zone resides around 6000-5591. We can see the market closing around the June 50% level and often I would expect this level to form resistance along with 5834 (Yearly highs) If I'm wrong then it could push as high as the Weekly highs, but there is still the expectation it's going lower before it goes higher. (Previous Report)

The June highs has formed resistance and my expectation that the Australian stock market is moving into a 2-monthly wave pattern down into 5591 and July lows.

I would think this level is the ideal time to be getting back into the market with the expectation it is going higher. look for 5-day high breakout to confirm. (read S&P 500 Report)

 

[Frank D]

I think there is more in this market for 2017, so we are looking to BUY the dips using the monthly trailing support levels, with a LONG term target in 2017 towards 2573. (1st April Report)

S&P 500 has reached it's target @ 2573, I would begin to off load long positions, especially if long on MARGIN positions.

Sure the market can continue to move higher into the end of 2017 (push up into November highs),
and I do still think that this current trend is just the start of a multi-year stock Market Rally, since 2015 when I called for double bottom lows to occur early in 2016.

Therefore I would still continue to look to BUY the dips in 2018.

 

[Frank D]

The S&P 500 has completed the Primary Cycle break and Extend pattern from the 2017 highs and into the 2018, as described in my books.

Everything is driven by the Primary cycle. Understand the Primary Cycle and you're well onto you way of doing extremely well in the market.

Now I believe the Stock Market is still in a Primary Bull trend that's going to last a few more years, so we still want to BUY the dips.

Because a reversal Primary trend from a completion pattern (BREAK & EXTEND) can often go looking for it's 50% level, and that 50% level is a lot further down @ 2575

Last night it completed that move and I think it will continue higher once again.

however, don't be surprised if it revisits the 50% level @ 2575 (double bottom) but these moves are part of the primary cycles.

 

[Frank D]

The US Markets full-filled it's Primary Cycle reversal into Support (Yearly 50% level) - (double Bottom)

I'm still bullish for a couple more years until about 2020/21, so we now begin to validate this reversal by using the Weekly lows as a target and support. (further weakness)

These lows will creep upwards over the next couple of weeks and if the market is going to go higher then we should see less volatility in the later half March and the start of April.

Ideal support zone resides in the Monthly cycles (Yellow), so April level is what we would like to keep an eye on.

 

[Frank D]

TRUMP'S trade wars are putting major pressure on global Primary Stock Market Trends.

However, as noted in the previous Report, This April Monthly Cycle is what we need to see hold this week and then for the market to rise later this week and continue higher the next.

The market remains above the Yearly 50% level.

Major Support - 2546

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Everything is driven by the Primary cycle. Understand the Primary Cycle and you're well onto you way of doing extremely well in the market.

Any chance you can explain how the Primary Cycle works or link to a post in this huge thread which does?

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 - Emini Futures

"I'm still bullish for a couple more years until about 2020/21, so we now begin to validate this reversal by using the Weekly lows as a target and support.
These lows will creep upwards over the next couple of weeks and if the market is going to go higher then we should see less volatility. Ideal support zone resides in the Monthly cycles (Yellow),
The market remains above the Yearly 50% level. Expectation US markets will continue higher"

• If US markets are going to push higher for the rest of this quarter, instead of the usual weakness most people expect in MAY-June, then the monthly cycles in Yellow @ 2677 is our support zone.
• This also aligns with the Weekly lows & June 50% level @ 2688.
• Don't trade longs below 2677

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 - Emini Futures

Still Bullish on the markets until 2020-21.

However, if you read the Financial news on Trump's tariffs and also Zero Hedge, you would think the markets are going to collapse. Let's see how things play out....
SUPPORT
2677

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly cycles

Still Bullish for a couple more years - Target - 3076

A few minor resistance points in August - @ 2883 & August highs.

Trend remains up in the short-term, as long as it remains above the Weekly lows @ 2804 in August.

Long term Support @ 2743 (monthly levels)

 

[Frank D]

Obama v Trump – Stock Market analysis

· Obama is elected and market drops 27%
· Takes 9 months to get back to the level when Obama was first elected
· Takes 5 years to get back to Bush’s highs
· Obama’s market is 33% from when it takes out the old highs and to when trump is elected.

· Trump is elected and market rallies
· First 9 months and it has risen 16%
· First 20 months and it has risen 35%

And there’s still more upside to go…

 

[minwa]

Obama v Trump – Stock Market analysis

· Obama is elected and market drops 27%
· Takes 9 months to get back to the level when Obama was first elected
· Takes 5 years to get back to Bush’s highs
· Obama’s market is 33% from when it takes out the old highs and to when trump is elected.

· Trump is elected and market rallies
· First 9 months and it has risen 16%
· First 20 months and it has risen 35%

And there’s still more upside to go…

The market was already dropping before Obama is elected same as Trump already had a bullish market before election. Don't see the value in comparing this outright when they happened in different stages of the market cycle. Not like Obama or Trump election turned around an already strong trend.

 

[CanOz]

Thanks minwa for adding some context....don't be an idiot frank and ruin your analysis with political bias...something more relevant might be the fed cycle.

 

[Frank D]

Since I haven't dabbled in Cyrpto's yet, it's now time to begin applying some of Dilernia Methodologies and see where the levels of interest are using Dynamic support levels and also Primary cycles.

The first interest level for BITCOIN is around 4585
but preferably 3858

However, when we apply the rules around Primary Cycles, this is the first year of a Bear trend that often continues lower into the 2nd year - 2 wave cycles.

Therefore, looking to dabble 3858 is a level, which may or may not provide the support within the Primary Cycles, otherthan a dead cat bounce.

I like these levels, but I also know there could be further weakness in the 1st Quarter in 2019 for a better long term entry


ETHEREUM analysis found on thetradertrading