AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

I've been away on holidays for 4 weeks, so those that read my Weekly posts, I've updated it.

http://austindex.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/spi-futures-australian-stock-market.html


If it does continue higher the next 5-days, and then into new highs the week after next, then it's time to look to profit taking, and then look for the same BUY zone in the 3rd Quarter. (27th April 2013)

That was my last report 4 weeks ago, and we are now moving down into the BUY zone @ 4899 (4886/4905), after completing the highs in MAY, where profit taking should have done along with the 100% highs of the Primary cycles in 2013

Keep in mind that the primary trend remains bullish whilst above these BUY levels.

We all know that the month of MAY is often the time when markets hit highs and reverse down, so it's a no brainer...

The question is now whether Primary cycles hold Support?

Short-term there is resistance around 5065

& if those Primary support levels don't hold, then I already know where the next BUY zone is, using monthly
cycle break-n-extend patterns, and hopefully so should you

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles

The weekly close below 4898 confirmed further weakness down into the 2nd Quarterly BUY zone @ 4600

We can see 4600 has attracted Buyers, and now the trend will be defined by the 3rd Quarterly 50% level 4796.

Either the trend makes its way down towards the Yearly 50% level....

or it's going to push up towards the 2013 yearly highs. If it pushes upwards, there is major resistance
around 4945 during July.

Note:- there are breakout patterns (DOWN) in the monthly cycles, therefore if it moves up into 4945, my view
is that it will move back down to align with the 'future' monthly LOW BUY zone, (RED) as illustrated in my book

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Weekly cycles


As noted in my previous Weekly Report on the 14th July, http://austindex.blogspot.com.au
the Primary cycles has seen price close above 5069 on a Friday,swinging the cycle around to a BUY.

The previous BUY zone at 4796, has now been replace with 4921, which is seen as support
for a continuation of the Primary cycles towards new highs in 2014.

Note:- Monthly cycles suggests the trend can continue up into August at 5153 before it
reverses back down into 4921.

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market (SPI Futures) Primary cycles & Monthly cycles

Primary cycles suggest the trend will continue higher into the 2014 Yearly highs, as part of the
Dilernia Principle "break & extend pattern.

We can now see Future Support move upwards in September, and if the trend is going to continue higher,
then I would expect a drift downward into this level and then push upwards over the next 3-6 months.

I could be wrong, but SUPPORT resides around 4921-54

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary Cycles suggests the trend will continue higher towards the 2014 highs, but it didn't follow the orderly
pattern I was looking for; a move down into September support @ 4937 and then a move upwards for the next
3-6 months.

The Trailing support has moved upwards, as shown in October @ 5128

The Trend should remain stable, as those Support zones hold, but long term support is 5006, if US markets move slightly lower towards the 4th Quarter BUY zone (READ US Report)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary Cycles suggests the trend will continue higher towards the 2014 highs,

The Trailing support has moved upwards, as shown in October @ 5128

Future support @ 5128 came into play in early October, as part of the Primary cycle trend towards the
2014 Yearly highs.

The short-term cycle will complete around the November highs, as this is part of the 2-month trending
pattern within this Quarterly cycle, as described in my books.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Monthly Cycles

The Aussie Market didn't hit the November highs, unlike the US markets, and we can see that the December support has failed to hold, as part of a Primary trend towards the the 2014 highs.

I still believe that the market will continue towards those Primary cycle highs, however the Monthly cycles
suggest the trend will continue to follow a 2-month wave pattern downward into 1st Quarter support.

If the trend does continue higher, then this BUY zone in the next Quarter is probably the best level to be
moving back into the market

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary Cycle suggests the trend will continue to move up towards the 2014 cycles highs
(Read US S&P 500 report)

BUY zone in the 4th Quarter @ 4960, didn't reach, but the BUY zone in the first quarter remains @ 5066 if
there is any short-term resistance.

Note:- there is a breakout in December (December 50% level matched with red channel),
this can act as resistance (along with 5338) for the rest of December.

A close above 5338 by the 31st of December, as occurred at the end of July, will help validate that
Primary Cycle



Monthly Reports for the end of December & the Primary Cycles for 2013 have been updated....

US (S&P Report)
SPI Futures
GOLD & Silver
FOREX AUD/USD

Merry Christmas to all and Happy trading in 2014

 

[Frank D]

The BUY zone in the first quarter remains @ 5066 if there is any short-term resistance around 5338 (previous report)



SPI Primary Cycle and Monthly Cycles

The Market has moved down into 1st Quarter support @ 5066, after following the December break and extend pattern from 5338 (resistance) in the 4th Quarter & into 1st Quarter Support.

As noted in previous reports last year, the Primary cycles suggests the trend can extend up towards the 2014 highs, however that view needs to be validated with the current price action, starting with a breakout of the 5-day highs, followed by a 3-week high breakout @ 5122 sometime in 'March', end of the first Quarter.

Simply because, the current trend in this Quarter & now being below the 2014 yearly 50% level @ 5122, doesn't bode well for a Primary break & extend pattern towards the 2014 highs.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary and Monthly cycles

The Market has moved down into 1st Quarter support @ 5067, after following the December break and extend pattern from 5338 (resistance) in the 4th Quarter & into 1st Quarter Support. (BUY ZONE)

As noted in previous reports last year, the Primary cycles suggests the trend can extend up towards the 2014 highs, however that view needs to be validated with the current price
action, starting with a breakout of the 5-day highs...Previous Monthly report

Trend bias is to complete the move towards the 2014 Primary highs @ 5574, as part of the Primary cycle
Break & Extend pattern from the 2013 highs.

BUY Support @ 5067 was validated with the 5-day high breakout that aligned with 5122 (Yearly 50% level)

The Trend should continue higher & follow the move towards the March highs :- Random resistance @ 5537...

Trailing support March 50% level.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Monthly cycles

Trend bias is to complete the Primary cycles based on the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend towards the 2014 highs

As we can see, the change in cycle saw support come into the market @ 5266, whilst within the Monthly
cycles there is another that suggests the minimum move will be towards the April
highs. (March 50% level Support)

My view remains, off load Margin long positions around those Yearly highs, whilst keeping an eye on the
same patterns in US futures markets (Read US report)

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/s-and-dow-futures-7th-april-2014.html

 

[Frank D]

Australia Stock Market :- Primary & Secondary Cycles

The Market has played out as expected, completing the Primary Cycles towards the 2014 highs, and
hopefully traders took my recommendation to exit Long Margin Positions around those upper levels.

When we look at the shorter cycles within the Weekly timeframe, we can see a similar break and extend
pattern on the downside, from the September lows & now into the October lows. This medium term
support coincides with the 2014 Yearly 50% level.

At this stage in the game, the secondary cycles are likely to form resistance around 5399 (SELL ZONE), and
with just over 2-months to go until the end of this Primary cycle, it’s way too early to have a
long term view of the overall market Trend.

My view is that the Market could consolidate within a narrow band of the Sell Zone, and short-term Support
until the next Primary cycle begins in 2015.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary & Secondary Cycles

My view of 5399 stalling the market (Sell Zone) failed with last Friday's close above that level.

Two important patterns have occurred since the market reaching the 2014 Primary highs..

1:- Reversal down into the 2014 50% level and October lows:- Support
2:- Last week's close above 5399.

This suggests the overall Primary Trend remains bullish, along with 5399 now being a random support zone, and that the trend will likely continue up towards the 2015 highs.

The most robust pattern of the trend continuing higher is for the Trailing support (currently 5139) rising upwards and forming a higher Support zone in December, providing the next thrust pattern.

 

[Lemmywincks]

As someone who is currently reading your works, I really do appreciate these posts of yours. Keep up the good work.

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures


As we can see the Primary and Secondary cycles are driving the market lower after reaching the 2014 highs (Exit Zone)

There is current support around 2014 50% level, but the secondary Sell zone in the 4 Quarter @ 5399 has stalled the market, now followed by a December break:- Trailing Support.

As we know from previous examples in the Primary cycles: below the 2015 50% level and the Primary cycles suggest further weakness in 2015, and potentially a 2-wave cycle that trends lower into 2016.


AUD/USD Report also updated

http://forexspread.blogspot.com.au/

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary cycles


It's been a while since I've posted on here, but if you've been following my reports, once above
the 2015 50% level on the back of S&P 500 strength, the Aussie Market reached a critical high once it hit 6005 (SPI futures 6011).

Current Report....


As noted in the previous report, it was time to get out of the market once the SPI hit 6005 (overnight 6011).

The next term long is around the BUY zone, which is currently 5482.

The current price action is very similar to the high reached in MAY 2013 and reversal down into the BUY zone.

However, the only difference between the two patterns is that the price action in 2013 was occurring within a break & extend pattern in the Quarterly cycles, whereas this current high is still part of the current Quarterly breakout @ 5691.

Therefore there is still the potential that the market has another go at a higher high in the 2nd Quarter as part of the extend pattern, and that will depend on the price action in US markets (S&P 500 Report)

But for me, I'd rather sit on the sidelines and wait for the pullback


http://austindex.blogspot.com.au/

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 E-mini Futures

Is there more upside in the S&P 500?

The current price action in the Primary cycles suggests that the trend should continue higher, as part of the 2014 yearly breakout and extend towards the 2015 highs.

As we can see in the chart, the trailing support (Yellow) provides the ideal zone to enter the market, and if the trend is going to continue higher then the APRIL level becomes the zone to keep an eye on.

That level will be confirmed after this week completes and we move on the other side of Easter.

Therefore if there's continued weakness this week, then 2009 is the BUY zone, and then April comes into play next week.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD Froex Report

As noted in the previous report, the trend bias was to continue lower in 2015, and the AUD hit Support right on the button completing break and extend pattern in the Primary Cycles.

Until it's trading above the 2nd Quarter 50% level (.7849 confirmed after this week), it is too early to tell
whether the AUD is going to rise upwards for the next 3-6 months :- 1st Target .8200

If long the AUD there should be a good guide after Easter using the Secondary Cycles (April 50% level)

What's going to hold the AUD back is that the Trend bias in GOLD is to continue lower.
(READ GOLD Report)

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Primary Cycles

The current price action in the Primary cycles suggests that the trend should continue higher, as part of the 2014 yearly breakout and extend towards the 2015 highs.

if the trend is going to continue higher then the APRIL level becomes the zone to keep an eye on. Previous Post.


As we can see the April support level @2039 has pushed the S&P 500 higher, as part of the Primary cycle breakout in 2014 towards the 2015 highs.

If long I'd unload positions around the first 2015 highs @2133 (too early to short at that level:- random resistance 14 points) without confirming patterns (5-day low breakout)

Major resistance in 2015 on S&P @ 2178

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

As we’ve seen the S&P has completed the move into 2133 and stalled 14 points.

As noted in the previous report, unless there’s a breakout of the 5-day lows, it is too early to tell whether the trend will reverse and continue lower (now a tight 5-day range)

Above 2133, and it’s following the secondary timeframes towards the June highs (Random resistance 14 points) & as high 2175 (Robust resistance)


AUD/USD Forex Report

2015 Primary Cycles suggests there is Major Support around these levels, and we’ve seen the AUD rise up from this support & stall around the MAY highs.

Support now resides around 78 cents:- Monthly 50% level and 2015 Lows.

Based on Commodity prices and their own Primary Cycles, there is still a bias to move lower in 2015, how this effects the AUD for the rest of the year will simply be defined by trading either side of .78cents