AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Weekly and Daily cycles

Rise up from the Daily 50% level and blue channel highs…@ 1173

This has seen the Market has retest the previous Weekly low breakout @ 1196 & stall.

The rest of this week is now based on the Weekly level @ 1189.

This could result in more weakness, as part of retesting last week's breakout
@ 1196 and moving towards this week’s lows @ 1128:- break and extend
pattern.

Or Monday was the first day in a 3-day counter-trend move upwards, as part
of a swing back towards the new monthly 50% levels in December.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

Previous Report saw the 3-day rise go much further than
expectated (Weekly highs).

Current price action has a 5-day low breakout on Thursday, and the expectation
that it will extend towards Friday's lows, which could align with the
Weekly 50% level.

Friday's lows random support:- 8.5 to 14 points

Any favourable news out of the euro zone on Friday could see
a higher daily close (off its lows)

Anything less and it's likely to close around 1312 (Weekly 50% level)

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Weekly and Daily cycles

Early support @ 1229.50 (8.5 to 14 points) saw Friday swing back towards
the resistance levels in the Daily and Weekly ranges @ 1246-49.

1246/49 formed resistance for a number of hours (8.5 points)

But good news out of the Euro Zone (I think), has seen Friday close higher.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

S&P is back into it's Weekly 50% level @ 1215.50, and matching Tuesday low

Whilst the market remains above the higher timeframe 50% levels (Weekly and
Monthly 50% levels) the current 4th Quarter looks stable, as price
consolidates within the weekly levels (& 5-day pattern trading) into the end of 2011.

However, when you begin to look at the Primary cycles for 2012, price is
beginning to trade under the 2012 Yearly 50% level, which isn't a
good sign to start the new year off in.

Yearly 50% level not shown.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

December 50% level and Weekly level has formed support @ 1198/1200.

confirmed with a 5-day breakout on Tuesday, with the expectation it
will extend upwards on Wednesday (Wednesday's highs random resistance
8.5 to 14 points)

Whilst the S&P is above 1231.50 (Weekly 50% level), trend bias is to move
towards the Weekly highs by Friday

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

Wednesday's highs Random resistance of 14 points down into the 5-day 50% level

And then a higher Weekly close by Friday, without reaching the Weekly and Daily highs.

Next Week's trend guide @ 1264 will determine whether the S&P continues up
towards 1274.50+

or closes in the middle of the Weekly range (Weekly 50% level).

If the latter happens then it's going to align with the new Primary cycle 50% level
at the start of the new year.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Weekly and Daily cycles

As per Weekly report, the S&P remains bullish within its own Primary cycle,
as long as it's above 1235

Short-term cycles (above 1261.25) suggests more gains, based on the
December 50% level support pattern extending up towards the January highs (1314)

Currently hitting a number of resistance levels within the Weekly cycle.

Any weakness in the S&P (not showing), and my view is that it's testing
those Primary support levels @ 1235

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly cycles

Target remains the January highs @ 1314, as part of the extension upwards from
the December 50% level.

Target could be reached over the next 5-days.

However, my ideal pattern would be this Week highs @ 1293.50 to form
another resistance zone, and then see price move back down into the dynamic
Weekly 50% level, which will be the support zone for a tilt at the January highs
the week after next.

Patterns in the 5-day range should hopefully filter out any potential moves.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Weekly cycles


S&P 500 remaining within the Weekly cycles in an orderly manner.

Target remains 1314 by January's end.

 

[Trembling Hand]

S&P 500 Weekly cycles


S&P 500 remaining within the Weekly cycles in an orderly manner.

Target remains 1314 by January's end.

Frank every time I read your work I can only shake my head in disbelief. With all the absolute crap on here purporting to be from "traders" yours is without a doubt lightyears ahead.

How is it that people can show such interest, even adulation, in all the other after it happened stuff and pass over your work? Without even a comment let alone full investigation??

Just the two little bits I pulled out of your first post in this thread should be a wet dream for anyone trying to work out the market (especially the little bit I highlighted),

Support and resistance as per defined by the AMT model is
dynamic not static.

.....part of the plan is combining both Time and Price, because with all trends price has a natural flow that rotates between central zones and extends onward as Time moves forward. This relationship forms levels in the market that hinders Price from moving in straight lines, it moves between support and resistance. As Time moves forward support and resistance moves along with it. Knowing where support and resistance zones lie is a critical cog in the wheel of trading, because it’s these levels that become part of our trading plan. The levels are now ‘probability patterns’ with a realistic expectation that the same pattern will Repeat.

Any way good work.....


Carry on....

 

[Frank D]

How is it that people can show such interest, even adulation, in all the other after it happened stuff and pass over your work?
....

I'm not dead yet, so the marketers haven't got a hold of my work and
flogged it to masses.

Thanks for your thoughts, TH.

 

[barney]

I'm not dead yet, so the marketers haven't got a hold of my work and
flogged it to masses.

Thanks for your thoughts, TH.

Hi Frank, and thanks for your last book ...... Still working through the nitty gritty, but so many valuable insights into the market as TH points out ..

ps Welcome back TH .... Hope you hang around for a while ... The place is not the same without you

You two guys were a large part of me being able to turn my trading around from being a consistent loser, to being "semi- reasonable" ...... Very appreciative of that !!

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly cycles

S&P is currently trading around the January highs @ 1314.

These resistance levels will disappear in two days time, and extend up towards
the February highs. (potential 2-month wave pattern during the first quarter)

The focus should be trading the current break out pattern from 1278.

The completion of the Break and Extend pattern is around 1235

In the short-term:- the Weekly level @ 1314 will determine whether early next
week moves down, or price continues to push higher, as it follows the dynamic Weekly cycles.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly cycles

Expectation is that the trend will complete the break and extend pattern from
1278 to 1335.

This is helped by the patterns in the Weekly and Daily cycles on Monday.

Resistance @ 1314 resides for 1 more day, when resistance disappears from
Wednesday onwards

However, be aware of weakness on Tuesday if it's being push down from the
daily 50% level, as described in the book

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

January resistance has disspeared...

Trend bias is to complete the break and extend pattern @ 1334, helped by the
patterns in the Weekly cycle, and today's daily cycle

2-month wave pattern could see the S&P 500 continue as high as the February
highs @ 1252

However, once the market hits 1334, and if price moves back within the 'dynamic' Weekly cycles (white)....

Then I would look for a rotation down towards the monthly 50% levels (MARCH)
during this current Quarterly cycle.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly Cycles

S&P completing the 2-month wave pattern into February's highs @ 1352
from the December 50% level.

These Monthly highs are seen as resistance, and I'll begin to look for potential
patterns that could result in the market rotating down towards trailing
monthly 50% levels in March.

the first sign that a 1st quarter 'top' is in place is if the market is trading
inside next week's levels:- 1340

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly cycles

2-month wave pattern complete at the February highs (resistance) 1352

my view is that it will try and unwind down towards the Weekly lows over
the next few weeks

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Weekly cycles

Principles:- Whenever the market reverses down after a 2-month upward
trend (January & February), but then reverses down to test trailing Support
(Weekly lows)...

the trend will often continue to move up towards the monthly highs, and then
proceed to new highs in the 2nd Quarter (April). This is what I call a text book
pattern. (Principle)

Next Week:- trend guide is once again the Weekly level @ 1374.50

Random resistance @ 1384, but with the possibility that in the last week of the
month the trend continues to move higher.

Anything below 1374.50, as part of a Friday' 5-day high resistance, is
seen as a 2-day reversal pattern to start the week...

and then from Wednesday onwards, using the daily cycle patterns, we look to
see whether the trend will push up towards 1384 by Friday next week.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly Cycles

My view was that the S&P would come back and retest last week's
breakout @ 1382-85 after reaching the March highs @ 1402


And as part of the price action from the Weekly lows @ 1338.50, my view is that
the trend will continue up towards the April highs over the new couple of weeks.


So far everything has played out precisely using 'text-book patterns, and if
that continues the expectation of the trend continuing higher will be determined
by next week''s level @ 1395 towards the Weekly highs @ 1415 & beyond

therefore 1395 will define whether my view will play out....

or not, and the market rotates down over the next 5-days (lower Friday close)

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD Monthly & Weekly Cycles

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3117&p=693984&viewfull=1#post693984

A continuation of the above Thread...

AUD has consolidated above long term support (2nd Quarterly 50% levels), with
the expectation that it's trying to move as high as 1.12 during this primary cycle.

Target will be this Week's 50% level.

Next week's 50% level will define whether there are more upward gains.

High Risk if AUD drops below Support levels