AMT Model & Methodology
- Thread starter Frank D
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S&P 500
I still continue to be Bullish, and if I'm correct it should find support around the 2018 50% level, the November lows (next Week) and then move up into new highs until 2020.
However, if I'm wrong and we can see the 2019 50% level is now above price (BEARISH) the
S&P 500 will go looking for a 50% retracement towards 2060.
A 'Crash', as many are calling will often go looking for a 50% retracement - 2060 is the target.
I still continue to be Bullish, and if I'm correct it should find support around the 2018 50% level, the November lows (next Week) and then move up into new highs until 2020.
However, if I'm wrong and we can see the 2019 50% level is now above price (BEARISH) the
S&P 500 will go looking for a 50% retracement towards 2060.
A 'Crash', as many are calling will often go looking for a 50% retracement - 2060 is the target.
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Earlier in 2018, I decided to punt the $130 or whatever bucks it cost last year to buy Franks latest book, just to see what was the merit in the Primary Cycle.
So here is the big secret:
The Primary Cycle is nothing more than the yearly pivot line. i.e. the 2019 Primary Cycle line is 2018s (H+L+C)/3.
The Primary Support and Resistance lines are simply half the yearly prior range added to or subtracted from the pivot. e.g if the yearly pivot is 100 and the prior year range is 10 then S/R will be at 95/105.
That said, I actually do think the book was worth it. It has a pretty unique way of looking at the markets which, after buying the book, cost me nothing to observe some markets I'm interested in to see how they react to the market structure defined in the book. It does cover a lot more than just the Primary Cycle.
Here are a couple of charts (XJO and XAUAUD) with the 2018 Primary Cycle/Support/Resistance lines and the 2019 lines as well.
I was impressed to see how the market structure Frank talks about in the book was obeyed by these two charts, especially as 2018 progressed and volatility increased.
XJO:
The 2019 numbers by my calculation are:
Primary Cycle: 5809.8
Yearly Support: 5328.15
Yearly Resistance: 6291.45
Given the market has opened the year below the Primary Cycle and most recently broke Yearly Support, based on the description in Franks book, I believe the expectation is that a "break and extend" pattern is in effect and continuation of downtrend is likely. Price might make it's way up to test the Primary Cycle before continuing lower.
XAUAUD (ICE)
Primary Cycle: 1748.66
Yearly Support: 1640
Yearly Resistance: 1857.32
This market opened the year above the Primary Cycle and quite strongly broke last years Yearly Resistance. I believe the expectation is for another "break and extend" pattern is in effect and uptrend is likely. However given the price has already tested and strongly rejected at Yearly Resistance, it's likely the market will make it's way back to the Primary Cycle line before continuing higher.
Anyway, I don't really use the methods described in the book to manage my money but I do watch these charts now, and thought I'd share the Yearly ones for ASF members who might be interested.
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This touches on something I have been pondering, I have heard a few people say something similar about not using charts, or a particular chart, but they do keep an eye on them.
Care to elaborate on what you are keeping an eye on if not using them while also having a systematic approach?
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I just mean, I paid for the book and I already watch the charts of those markets anyway (not as part a system), so I might as well keep a template with those levels on there, out of interest.
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So you watch charts for purely interests sake?
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Pretty much, why else would you watch them? If you have a quantitatively defined model, you don't really need the chart unless you want to visualise what the machine is doing?
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Assumed that might be the case, just wanted to make sure there was not missing anything
BITCOIN PRIMARY & MONTHLY CYCLES
Great moves in all the coins during the month of MAY, with BITCOIN completeing the move into the Yearly 50% level @ 8050USD (EXIT)
I'm now on the sidelines on BITCOIN, but holding a number of other COINS that are still lagging behind with the same price action, of rotating into the Yearly 50% level. (read previous reports below)
HOW DO WE TRADE BITCOIN NOW?
The expectation is that this BULL CYCLE will continue to new highs until 2020, wth the 1st Target $15012, which may reach this year. (4th Quarter) and then new highs early next year.
BULL CYCLES move in 4 year cycles, therefore, there's still an expectation that the UPSIDE will still continue until 2022, with some suggesting that $51,000 is the target based on previous % moves in BITCOIN throughout it's History.
In the SHORT TERM, if you subscribe to this theory, then we need to be BUYING the DIPS. I'm hoping there will be dips and not a PARABOLIC move to 15012.
Short term Support resides around the JUNE 50% level.
LONG TERM SUPPORT will always be the 3-month trailing lows during the next 3 years.
Great moves in all the coins during the month of MAY, with BITCOIN completeing the move into the Yearly 50% level @ 8050USD (EXIT)
I'm now on the sidelines on BITCOIN, but holding a number of other COINS that are still lagging behind with the same price action, of rotating into the Yearly 50% level. (read previous reports below)
HOW DO WE TRADE BITCOIN NOW?
The expectation is that this BULL CYCLE will continue to new highs until 2020, wth the 1st Target $15012, which may reach this year. (4th Quarter) and then new highs early next year.
BULL CYCLES move in 4 year cycles, therefore, there's still an expectation that the UPSIDE will still continue until 2022, with some suggesting that $51,000 is the target based on previous % moves in BITCOIN throughout it's History.
In the SHORT TERM, if you subscribe to this theory, then we need to be BUYING the DIPS. I'm hoping there will be dips and not a PARABOLIC move to 15012.
Short term Support resides around the JUNE 50% level.
LONG TERM SUPPORT will always be the 3-month trailing lows during the next 3 years.
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In the SHORT TERM, if you subscribe to this theory, then we need to be BUYING the DIPS.
I'm hoping there will be dips and not a PARABOLIC move to 15012.
Short term Support resides around the JUNE 50% level. (Previous Post)
We've seen the Yearly 50% level resist price at $8050, retested the JUNE 50% level, found support and moved back above the Yearly 50% level. That price action was the perfect set-up to get back into the trend.
There's still a bit of risk that it might stall around these June highs @ 9600-9900 and move back below the Yearly 50% level, but there's enough risk reward for a move toward $15,000 in 2019 and much higher in the coming years.
There are a lot of other coins that are lagging in Price action compared to BITCOIN, but at long as BITCOIN goes higher, holding other coins is a no-brainer.
NOTE:- if we subscribe that is going to move higher for the next 4 years, BUY BITCOIN around the 3-month lows and hold, as it will eventually retest it, but you'll only get 1 or 2 chances during this time, but maybe a much higher prices.
I'm hoping there will be dips and not a PARABOLIC move to 15012.
Short term Support resides around the JUNE 50% level. (Previous Post)
We've seen the Yearly 50% level resist price at $8050, retested the JUNE 50% level, found support and moved back above the Yearly 50% level. That price action was the perfect set-up to get back into the trend.
There's still a bit of risk that it might stall around these June highs @ 9600-9900 and move back below the Yearly 50% level, but there's enough risk reward for a move toward $15,000 in 2019 and much higher in the coming years.
There are a lot of other coins that are lagging in Price action compared to BITCOIN, but at long as BITCOIN goes higher, holding other coins is a no-brainer.
NOTE:- if we subscribe that is going to move higher for the next 4 years, BUY BITCOIN around the 3-month lows and hold, as it will eventually retest it, but you'll only get 1 or 2 chances during this time, but maybe a much higher prices.
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If Cryptos are going to go higher, then this is the the PULLBACK today that we want to see, as we're looking to buy the dips in July.
We need theses support levels to hold, a couple of weeks consolidation and then look for August to move higher. (5-day high pattern breakout)
I think running stops below this week's lows (need to be confirmed), is what we're looking for.
We need theses support levels to hold, a couple of weeks consolidation and then look for August to move higher. (5-day high pattern breakout)
I think running stops below this week's lows (need to be confirmed), is what we're looking for.
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Support in July Held!
5-day breakout at the start of August and now looking for this to continue towards $14000 & beyond.
If there's any selling in BITCOIN, then BUY SUPPORT LEVELS in August are shown in the chart.
I would like this to keep going higher, but it won't surprise me to see a retest of the BUY zone.
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S&P 500
Since the 2016 lows, I've been saying Up & Up & Up until the 2020 Highs to complete the 4 year cycle. Once it reach those highs, I said SELL and get out!
In 2018 we had similar price action - 2018 highs, back into the 2018 50% level and then more upside, because the trend expectation was for more gains into 2020, as part of the 4 year Cycle.
Even though the 2020 50% is currently supporting the market now, I don't think it's the same as 2018.
It might support it for a number of weeks, but I think we are looking for more weakness in the 2nd half of the year and into 2021 lows.
If we look at the Weekly Cycles, there's a break and extend patterns that could see price move down into the March and weekly lows @ 2743-2761 - AND AS LOW AS @2617
However, the 2020 50% level at 2976 might not allow that to happen, just yet
Resistance the March 50% level and also the 5-day highs
Since the 2016 lows, I've been saying Up & Up & Up until the 2020 Highs to complete the 4 year cycle. Once it reach those highs, I said SELL and get out!
In 2018 we had similar price action - 2018 highs, back into the 2018 50% level and then more upside, because the trend expectation was for more gains into 2020, as part of the 4 year Cycle.
Even though the 2020 50% is currently supporting the market now, I don't think it's the same as 2018.
It might support it for a number of weeks, but I think we are looking for more weakness in the 2nd half of the year and into 2021 lows.
If we look at the Weekly Cycles, there's a break and extend patterns that could see price move down into the March and weekly lows @ 2743-2761 - AND AS LOW AS @2617
However, the 2020 50% level at 2976 might not allow that to happen, just yet
Resistance the March 50% level and also the 5-day highs
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If we look at the Weekly Cycles, there's a break and extend patterns that could see price move down into the March and weekly lows @ 2743-2761 And as low as 2617
However, the 2020 50% level at 2976 might not allow that to happen.
Resistance the March 50% level and also the 5-day highs (Previous Report)
TEXT Book Patterns in the S&P 500...
Support at the 2020 50% level, counter-trend rally into the 5-day highs and then the next push down from the MARCH 50% level towards 2617
There's more weakness to come into 2021.
Random support 2617, which could see another counter-trend move back towards the 2020 50% level (Major Resistance) on any stimulus announcement.
However, we're in a 2 year BEAR market, that often sees extensions towards the 100% range at 2160
However, the 2020 50% level at 2976 might not allow that to happen.
Resistance the March 50% level and also the 5-day highs (Previous Report)
TEXT Book Patterns in the S&P 500...
Support at the 2020 50% level, counter-trend rally into the 5-day highs and then the next push down from the MARCH 50% level towards 2617
There's more weakness to come into 2021.
Random support 2617, which could see another counter-trend move back towards the 2020 50% level (Major Resistance) on any stimulus announcement.
However, we're in a 2 year BEAR market, that often sees extensions towards the 100% range at 2160
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ASX Primary & Weekly Cycles (SPI Futures)
When we look at previous Bear Market sell offs, it can often go looking for the 100% of the range, which is 5012. Once it reaches that point, it doesn't go much lower, in the current year.
5012 is Support for 2020, but it's not a BUY & HOLD level, that will come in 2021 (previous Report)
When we look at previous Bear Market sell offs, it can often go looking for the 100% of the range, which is 5012. Once it reaches that point, it doesn't go much lower, in the current year.
5012 is Support for 2020, but it's not a BUY & HOLD level, that will come in 2021 (previous Report)
Australian Stock Market down into 5012 and support back into the 2020 lows @ 5883
Has all the bad news been factored in the market in the Short-term?
There's 3 potential price actions that may happen.
A. - remains below the 2020 lows & in between 5021
with resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980
B. More short covering from 5525 up to 6120 - resistance
C: A lot of Short covering into the 2020 50% level over the next few week @ 6355 - a lot of resistance for more weakness into 2021
They are predicting it's going to get worse over the next 4 weeks with a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.
In the Short-term I would think a bit of A, but I won't be surprise is there is B!
Has all the bad news been factored in the market in the Short-term?
There's 3 potential price actions that may happen.
A. - remains below the 2020 lows & in between 5021
with resistance next week around these 2 levels 5868 & the March lows @ 5980
B. More short covering from 5525 up to 6120 - resistance
C: A lot of Short covering into the 2020 50% level over the next few week @ 6355 - a lot of resistance for more weakness into 2021
They are predicting it's going to get worse over the next 4 weeks with a Peak around MAY June, therefore there is expected weakness into 2021 for long terms buys.
In the Short-term I would think a bit of A, but I won't be surprise is there is B!
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S&P 500 E-mini Futures Primary & Weekly Cycles
We're in a 2 year BEAR market, that often sees extensions towards the 100% range at 2160 (previous Reports)
Didn't reach resistance levels from the March low breakout at 2745, but the Market is heading down into 2160, but it doesn't spend too much time below this level in the next 3-months.
I would begin to look for a counter-trend rally upwards from 2160 towards 2641 and as high as 2770 (50% of the range from highs)
Once that happens, then I would be looking the next sell off from around June, as it begins a trending period towards new lows in 2021 (& long term buys)
POSTED BY FRANK DILERNIA LINKS TO THIS POST
We're in a 2 year BEAR market, that often sees extensions towards the 100% range at 2160 (previous Reports)
Didn't reach resistance levels from the March low breakout at 2745, but the Market is heading down into 2160, but it doesn't spend too much time below this level in the next 3-months.
I would begin to look for a counter-trend rally upwards from 2160 towards 2641 and as high as 2770 (50% of the range from highs)
Once that happens, then I would be looking the next sell off from around June, as it begins a trending period towards new lows in 2021 (& long term buys)
POSTED BY FRANK DILERNIA LINKS TO THIS POST
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S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles.
As I mentioned a numbers of Weeks ago, the S&P would swing up from the 100% lows in the Primary cycles and move towards the 50% level of the range between the 2020 highs and 2020 lows.
We saw the S&P hit and reach the Weekly highs and also retest the March low breakout @2743, which is what often happens in Bear markets - retest the breakout before it continues lower.
I'm extremely bearish after this retracement, but it won't surprise me if it takes a number of weeks to unwind.
That bearish sentiment can easily change, once governments start to re-open the economy, but technically it's down into 2021.
As I mentioned a numbers of Weeks ago, the S&P would swing up from the 100% lows in the Primary cycles and move towards the 50% level of the range between the 2020 highs and 2020 lows.
We saw the S&P hit and reach the Weekly highs and also retest the March low breakout @2743, which is what often happens in Bear markets - retest the breakout before it continues lower.
I'm extremely bearish after this retracement, but it won't surprise me if it takes a number of weeks to unwind.
That bearish sentiment can easily change, once governments start to re-open the economy, but technically it's down into 2021.
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S&P 500
Thursday's close is exactly the 50% level @ 2785.75% of the range from the 2020 highs and the lows.
It could push up a bit more into 2861, however, everything around these levels are high risk on Longs.
The ideal pattern is a major sell down into the MAY lows.
Another bounce into higher highs, and then it all goes to shite in 2021.
Thursday's close is exactly the 50% level @ 2785.75% of the range from the 2020 highs and the lows.
It could push up a bit more into 2861, however, everything around these levels are high risk on Longs.
The ideal pattern is a major sell down into the MAY lows.
Another bounce into higher highs, and then it all goes to shite in 2021.
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