AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and daily cycles

Monday's support @ 3967 and an early gap closure to friday's lows, but I'm
expecting more upside in the short-term.

As per Weekly report, my view is that early this week will try and rise upwards
and move towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4207.

Once that price action is over, then I'll look for the completion of the break
and extend pattern down into this week's lows (later in the Week)

 

[skyQuake]

SPI Weekly and daily cycles

Monday's support @ 3967 and an early gap closure to friday's lows, but I'm
expecting more upside in the short-term.

As per Weekly report, my view is that early this week will try and rise upwards
and move towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4207.

Once that price action is over, then I'll look for the completion of the break
and extend pattern down into this week's lows (later in the Week)

Cheers Frank. Arrived at similar targets with different methods.

However all bets are off if a couple more ppl also agree to these targets

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Primary and Monthly cycles


S&P down into the August lows quicker than expected (US downgrade)

S&P Weekly report UPDATE...

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

SPI has moved back towards the Weekly 50% level.

My original view was for the market to move up towards this level and then be
rejected back down.

However, because the S&P has fast-forwarded the price action by reaching the
the August lows @ 1115, which is currently supporting the market....

There is still the possibility that the trend in the Aussie market continues upwards,
as part of the 3rd Week counter-trend move (next week) towards (#B) 4404.

The Primary level @ 4137 comes into play once again for next week

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

As per Weekly report....

Next week begins the 3rd Week, and if it follows last week’s report,
then the market should continue to rally upwards over the first 3-4 days.

This is part of retesting the previous weekly breakout @ 4321, and could
be as high as 4404 by next Thursday. (#C)

The SPI is following the Wednesday daily range, and is moving up towards
retesting the Previous Weekly low breakout @ 4321.

If the SPI is going to be around 4404 by Thursday, then US markets need to
follow a similar pattern, and continue upwards on the 3rd day.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

3rd day up move and the SPI can’t crack the August lows, whilst the
S&P 500 can’t crack the 3rd quarterly level @ 1208.50.

My view was that a 3-day rally could move much higher, but it was from
Thursday onwards that could see selling pressure in the markets.

Today's (Thursday) selling has resulted in a push downwards, aligned with
August lows, and a reversal could see the SPI back into the weekly
levels (4154/4122) by Friday.

Any further selling in the market, as part of a potential move towards lower
lows in September, will need to see the SPI trading below 4137 (next week),
whilst using the 'new weekly levels' as a trend guide.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD Weekly and Daily cycles

The AUD/USD is a classic text book pattern that I was expecting to
happen in the S&P 500.

Three day rally in the 3rd Week, as part of retesting the previous Weekly breakout:- completed.

Thursday sell pattern:- 11am levels

And if it follows text book patterns, then I've mapped out a potential pattern
on the AUD over the coming days, as shown in the Weekly cycles

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 and Daily cycles


The S&P has followed last Thursday's 'sell pattern' and is once again
consolidating around the August lows @ 1115.

My view is that the market will try and swing upwards and retest the
Weekly 50% level in the short-term...

However, the larger cycles are pointing to further weakness towards
1045 to 1015 by early September.

In the mean time, there's robust volatility within the daily ranges for day traders,
as the market zig-zags within the higher timeframe cycles

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Weekly and Daily cycles

S&P has continued to move up from the August lows @ 1115 back towards the
Weekly 50% level @ 1177

1173 is the Yearly 50% level. along with the Weekly 50% level @ 1177 can continue
to act as resistance this week.

However, Obama is making a speech on Friday, and if there’s an announcement that
QE3 or something similar is happening, the current reversal up from the August
lows @ 1115 could see the trend back towards 1245 by next week
( Monthly 50% level)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles.

The SPI is back into the Weekly level @ 4305, which coincides with
the August lows and Tuesday's highs.

Normally the market would remain below these levels over the
next 2-days, as the August lows continue to form resistance…

If the market is going to continue higher, then from Thursday onwards
would be the ideal pattern, as resistance levels disappear, and also the
SPI will begin trading above the new monthly 50% level in September :- target 4555.

This is a similar pattarn as in 2010. The only difference is the 3rd Quarter
cycles are different. This year being more bearish.

Let’s see how strong the market is today using 4302-4305….

It’s either going to follow a 2-day stall pattern into Thursday…

Or it’s going to continue upwards with daily breakouts over the next 5-days.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly Cycles


Last Week the market remained below the August lows until Thursday, when it
then attempted to breakout on the upside early in the day, but reversed
to close back inside the 5-day range.

This was the first warning sign that Markets were going to continue lower, as part
of the break and extend patterns in the 3rd quarter, helped by the September 50% level rejection patterns.

Current expectation remains a move down into the September lows
(double bottom) to coincide with a 'lame' stimulus package announcement from Obama

Random support around this week’s lows

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Break and extend pattern in the Monthly cycles:- August down into September
lows.

A ton of support around those Sept lows during the current month.

My view is once those September lows are reached, (DOUBLE BOTTOM) there
is possible support that could result in the next 3-months (4th Quarter) moving into
a large sideways consolidation pattern until the start of 2012.

I should have a fair Idea how things play out over the next 5-days (next Week)

Note:- A possible support pattern in September will depend on price action in the
S&P 500, as its own support levels are much lower, which could see the SPI dip
lower in the 4th Quarter.

 

[Frank D]

GOLD Primary and Wekely cycles

Gold has rotated back down into a major support level in the 4th quarter. (SUPPORT)

All trends originate from these levels and continue outward, and if the Primary
cycle trend remains bullish it shouldn't spend anytime below SUPPORT. The last
time that occurred was in July 2008, when price was $922.00

The most bullish patterns have been occurring in the 2nd month of the Quarter, as
price in the first month rotates down into support, and then the 2nd month rises
up from support and continues outward during each individual quarterly cycle.

However, this is the first month of the quarter, and price is already trading around
support, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the next 4 weeks consolidate around
support.

When we look at the Weekly cycles (right chart).... there is a potential
rejection pattern around the Weekly 50% level that could see price move towards
next week's lows and as low as the October lows

In conclusion:- if you are bullish and believe that GOLD is going to continue higher,
then these are the levels that should be of most interest.

Just keep an eye on the Weekly cycle for short-term weakness.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

There are 2 resistance levels in early trading 3944 & 3951.

The trend bias is down 42 points, and as low as 3880 (Random support).

Often I will look at weakness on open using the upper resistance levels, however
I'm not sure whether the market will continue down towards 3880, or weakness is
only short-term (18-21 points)

Simply because the patterns in the Weekly cycles can often see more upward
gains this week.

With the SPI rising up from this Week's lows, there is now a possible continuation of
the reversal pattern towards the Weekly 50% level @ 4056, as last night's pattern
completes the break and extend pattern from the previous Weekly breakout
@ 4002 down into this week's lows @ 3820.

That means above 3951 and the trend bias is up. (first target 3979 intra-day)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

SPI didn't close the gap in early trading from 4004...

but has continued to follow the Weekly cycles, rising up from this week's lows and
now hitting the Weekly 50% level matched with Thursday's highs @ 4056-58

let's see how much selling comes into the market...

it's either going to hang around a be choppy between 4039-58...(21 point reversal only)

or it's going to reverse 42 points, and move towards yesterday's Gap by tomorrow.

 

[Frank D]

SPI monthly and Weekly cycles

SPI following the Weekly cycles, and likely to continue towards next week's
highs (random resistance in the 5-day cycle)

The market may then remain under the 4th Quarterly level @ 4297 and consolidate
for the rest of 2011....

However, the double low pattern earlier in October, and the current price action suggests a potential move towards 4519+ by November/December

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

Trend continuing higher, as it follows the Weekly cycle highs @ 4345


Potential Target remains 4519+ by November.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily cycles

Thursday break and extend pattern completed at friday's highs
overnight @ 4425.

Friday's current price action is a retest of the Weekly high breakout @ 4345.

If the Weekly cycle follows the same pattern as the daily cycle, then it should
remain above this level and continue upwards next week.

That's obviously going to be helped or hindered by the price action in
US markets.

US markets have the same breakout patterns in both the Daily and Weekly
cycles.

This often leads to Friday moving higher- friday's highs (random resistance)

If friday closes on its highs, then it's mostly likely going to extend upwards
early next week.

New Weekly levels out tomorrow.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

As per last week's report, my view was the price would move up into the
Weekly highs, and then reverse down towards the November 50% levels.

Instead the opposite occurred, with Monday opening below the important
level @ 1274.50 (4th Quarterly 50% level & daily channel).

current price action and support, and the rest of this Week (Friday) is
determined by the Weekly level @ 1250.50, and whether it continues to push
up towards a higher Weekly close

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles


1274.50 and the 4th Quarter 50% level continues to act as resistance...

as the S&P continues to consolidate wiithin the Weekly and Daily cycles.

My view is more consolidation during this Quarter, but it won't
take much to send the market either way, whether it's a Friday rally on positive
news out of the euro zone

or a collapse, and a Daily close below higher timeframe support levels.

Trend guide on Friday is based on the Weekly level @ 1236.