AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

S&P 500

As mentioned in the previous post, keep an eye on the breakout of the 5-day lows. (circled)

Current price action should see a 2-month wave pattern towards the July lows, as the market zig-zags downard within the Weekly cycles (Green)

AUD/USD

Further weakness in Commodity prices, as noted in the previous Report, has seen .78 cents form resistance.

Random Support July lows .7398

 

[Frank D]

GOLD Primary Cycles

Gold has finally completed the break & extend pattern in the Primary cycles from the 2013 breakout down
into the 2015 lows.

This is a MAJOR Buy zone in the Primary Cycle, however in the smaller cycles there are currently minor
break and extend patterns playing out at the same time that can see more downside.

Short-term:- we would need to see Gold close back above 1106 on a Friday, and then use the same level
the following week as support.

Any further weakness in GOLD as it follow the short-term cycles could see GOLD push as low as 975.40

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AUD Primary & Weekly cycles

Commodity prices dropping (READ GOLD Report) dragging the AUD dollar lower.

Even though the AUD is hovering around the July lows, it's actually trading below those lows @.7485 forming
a resistance zone, and most likely follow the weekly cycles towards the Weekly lows, and as low as .7091

For short-term trading I would use each of the levels as Support & Resistance.

Resistance:- .7567

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD Primary & Weekly Cycles

As Noted in the Previous report, the price action is down into MAJOR Support level in August
and 100% of the Primary range.

Therefore around .7091-71 is a level that good enough to GO LONG from...

However, there is a major resistance zone:- August 50% level 75.65 and previous Primary support earlier in
the year. This resistance zone could end up stalling the AUD for the rest of 2015.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S&P 500 Primary Cycles

The S&P didn't move as low as the July lows, but formed support in the 2nd half of the month above 2058. (Yellow)

As noted in the previous report, the August level at 2085 (Yellow) will now define whether the trend makes
move back towards the highs @2133) and more...

 

[Frank D]

GOLD Report

As noted in the previous report, we needed to see a Friday close above 1106 to get buyers interested in Gold once again, and as we can see that's how it's played out precisely.

This completes the break and extend pattern from the 2013 lows into the 2015

Short-term target is 1190, and as high as 1214 in September. Keep an eye on 4th Quarter patterns from October to see if this reversal in the Primary Cycles has more legs into the end of the year

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Australian Stock Market. SPI Futures

As noted in the Previous Report, I still wanted to see some downside in index markets, as they hadn't
followed the 'TEXT-BOOK' support patterns into the July lows.

We can see the Market sell-off began with the breakout of the Weekly lows @ 5474, and is now likely to
move down into this week's lows @4969, and ideal zone to be looking for a short-term swing pattern.

We are also testing the 3rd Quarter lows.

However we have to acknowledge the SPI is now officially in a bear trend, and bear markets often follow
trends lower into 2016. (2-pattern extension into the following yearly lows)

Therefore any short-term support (READ S&P 500 report) and we must treat the 2015 50% as resistance for
the rest of this year.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures Primary Cycles

We also have to acknowledge the SPI is now officially in a bear trend, and bear markets often follow trends lower into 2016. (2-pattern extension into the following yearly lows) Therefore any short-term support must treat the 2015 50% as resistance for the rest of the year. (previous Report)

The Australian Market has continued its dramatic sell-off extending its low towards the 100% level of theYearly Timeframe @ 4750

As noted in the previous report, the BEAR-Market pattern often extends towards the 2016 lows, If we use historical patterns clearly described in my book :- Market Trading Market Time, then we should see some consolidation around the current 2015 lows, but then further weakness from the 4th Quarter down into the 1st Quarter lows some time in March 2016

If that plays out, then I'd look to move back into Long positions in the Aussie Market 6 months from now, using the 2016 lows as support & entry

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GOLD Primary Cycles


As noted in the previous two reports 1106 was a BUY zone in Gold, and it continues to support the
price. However, I'd be concerned that GOLD isn't acting like it's got the legs to continue higher.

The initial bullish pattern some weeks ago once above 1106 should have continued upwards using the
September 50% level as Support for the next thrust upwards..

Instead it failed, and current support around 1106 normally only lasts for the current Quarter, which ends in a couple of weeks.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AUD/USD Primary Cycles

The Australian dollar completed its move down into .7091 cents

I was expecting more support to come into the Aussie Dollar @ .7091 cents using the Primary Cycles, with a swing upwards into .7567 (resistance) for the rest of 2015, but it instead has followed the Weekly cycles from August lows down into the September lows .6936 (random Support)

Based on current patterns coming into the end of the 3rd Quarter and the start of the 4th, there is a resistance level @.7220 & a major resistance @ .7567,

Note:- Even though the trend remains weak, 5-day high breakouts can provide short-term buying
opportunities above .7220 (Monday breakout of a Friday 5-day high)

 

[shouldaindex]

There were peaks hit and 20%+ declines finished in the XAO in 1984, 1987, 1992, 1994, 1997 and 2011 that didn't reach new lows the next year.

That's 6 of the last 9 that went against the lower low early next year theory.

Only caveat is SPI may be different, but assume not, but happy to learn new information.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures Australian Stock Market

My view remains the Aussie Market is drifting towards those 2016 lows, hopefully by March and the end of the
1st Quarter.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AUD/USD

First resistance zone @ .7220 held, and now it's moved down to .7154 in October.

As noted in previous report, the AUD is likely to follow the trend down in 2016 towards the lows
around .66 cents

There are two patterns at play....

1. trade resistance during each monthly timeframe with the expectation that it's following the primary
cycles downward in 2016. (more than likely)

2. Weekly breakout on Monday above the previous 5-day highs & .7154, which forms support the following
week, and the expectation that the AUD is retesting .7567 (major Resistance SELL ZONE)

 

[Frank D]

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET- SPI

We can see the the Primary Cycles and levels having a major influence in the trend and also the major
turning points in the market.

From the exact highs at 6005 and the exact lows @ 4750, and now the 2015 50% level forming resistance.

My view is that the stock market is heading lower, but it is likely to find support around the 2015 lows @
4990-5065 until the end of the year.

When we look at the Weekly cycles, the trend bias remain robust in the short-term defined by the
November 50% level and Weekly lows.

Therefore those 2 levels @5213 & 5116 are your short-term random support zones within a larger Primary
Cycle that's wanting to move lower.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AUD/USD Forex Report

Weekly breakout on Monday above the previous 5-day highs & .7154 , which
forms support the following week, and the expectation that the AUD is retesting .7567 (major Resistance
SELL ZONE) Previous Report

As we can see the AUD rose on the back of the 5-day high break the week after, without reaching the
first resistance zone @7474, instead slipping back and now retesting Support, as pointed out.

This support zone resides @ .7091, but the trend guide as to whether it moves up towards .7567 begins
next week from .7155.

Note: Primary trend suggest the long term trend guide is to continue lower in 2016.

Below .7091 and keep an eye on .6894

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market :- SPI Futures (PRIMARY CYCLES)


As noted in the previous post, my view was that the stock market was heading lower and likely to find
support around the 2015 lows @ 4990-5065 until the end of the year. This has currently played out.

I continue to have the view that the Australian Market will try and move lower in the early part of 2016 until
it reaches those 2016 lows, however for the rest of the year it could move into a sideways pattern around
current support.

Long term bias is down.

Keep an eye on the 2016 50% level as a trend guide/resistance zone in early 2016

 

[peter2]

Thanks Frank. I see there is room for a Christmas rally up to the 2015 50% level

 

[Frank D]

AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKET

Support @ 4990 -5065 came into play, and the Australian market is rotating upwards into the 2016 50% level.

US markets remain in a bullish Primary Cycle, whilst the Australian market remains in a bearish
Primary cycle, as commodity prices continue to fall and likely to push lower in the early part of 2016.

As long as the index is below the 2016 50% I have the view that the Australian market will head lower, but I've also seen on previous occasions that the last day of the year closes right on the new yearly 50% level and the initial move is upwards in January and everything is hunky dory once again.

 

[Frank D]

"As noted in the previous report, the BEAR-Market pattern often extends towards the 2016 lows, If we use historical patterns clearly described in my book :- Market Trading Market Time, then we should see some consolidation around the current 2015 lows, but then further weakness from the 4th Quarter down into the 1st Quarter lows some time in March 2016

If that plays out, then I'd look to move back into Long positions in the Aussie Market 6 months from now, using the 2016 lows as support & entry" (September 12 Post)

SPI Primary Cycles

As you probably aware I'm bearish on the Aussie Market, and so far the market is consolidating around the
2015 lows.

If we follow the pattern as previously described, the Market should be heading down towards 4600. and if it's reaching those lows around March, then it's a good time to rock & roll.

Note:- Market Trading Market Timing is probably the best T.A book on the market. Merry Christmas.

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market Primary Cycles

Before continuing to read the rest of the report, please scroll down and read the S&P 500 report.

TEXT BOOK sell-off in the Aussie market at the start of January, and we now have both the Australian Markets and US markets in synch. These SELLOFFS at the start of 2016 have all the hallmarks of forming a Double Bottoms around the 2016 Yearly lows.

In conclusion:- I've been calling this downtrend into MARCH lows as the next time to move into LONG positions, which coincide with the 2016 support zone

Those LONG positions can be validated using patterns clearly described in my book. MARKET TRADING MARKET TIMING 'Time Price Support Resistance'

If it's a robust Support zone, then next UP leg should be taking out the February highs in late MARCH early April.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S&P 500 Primary Cycles

"There is still a Minor bear pattern that is lagging from the August breakout @ 2027. If we subscribe to the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend pattern, then price trend needs to reach the lagging Monthly support zone, which currently resides around 1921 (blue). (Previous Report)

This Week's dramatic sell-off wasn't unexpected, based on the Dilernia Principle of 'Break & Extend', which now completes the pattern from the 2015 breakout @2027 - 1921.

Going forward... we could see some computer generated buying support around 1921 from next week, (validate support using patterns in my book) and see price rise up into the 2016 50% level, which is more than likely going to form resistance for many months.

However, US markets are now officially in a Dilernia BEAR CYCLE, and often the trend will follow a 2-period cycle down into the next Primary Support zone @ 1849.

Indexes around the globe now have all the hallmarks of forming 'double bottoms' around March 2016.

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market (SPI Futures)

TEXT BOOK sell-off in the Aussie market at the start of January, and we now have both the Australian Markets and US markets in synch. These SELLOFFS at the start of 2016 have all the hallmarks of forming a Double Bottoms around the 2016 Yearly lows.

Text book Break & Extend pattern (Dilernia Principle) from the 3rd Quarter breakout into the 1st Quarter Target of 4751 will complete most likely on Monday Morning.

Along with similar moves in US markets, there's a good chance the BUYERS will begin to move into the markets next week, but it's WAY too early to be saying a NEW UP trend will occur, as it hasn't follow my TEXT BOOK bottom in MARCH, but a 'double bottom' nevertheless.

However, there's a pattern in the S&P500 (READ US Report) that might stop January rising to quickly.

There's enough information using 5-day patterns that can validate short-term counter-trend moves.


S&P 500 & AUD/USD Reports updated

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market (SPI Futures) Primary Cycles

Along with similar moves in US markets, there's a good chance the BUYERS will begin to move into the markets next week, but it's WAY too early to be saying a NEW UP trend will occur, as it hasn't follow my TEXT BOOK bottom in MARCH, but it's a 'double bottom' nevertheless' (Previous Report)

These moves in the Primary Cycles are often very predictable. We've seen the expected 2-wave Primary cycle downward (Dilernia Principle) at the start of the year and we've seen the double bottom and buyers appearing around the lows.

However, even though it's playing out as expected, it's not a TEXT book pattern that screams BUY the market, because these lows should be occurring in March.

Therefore, it's more of a wait and see approach, and trade on the side of the February 50% level. If these are in fact robust double lows, then price will need to consolidate above the FEB 50% and then continue upwards in March using the same dynamic 50% level.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Primary & Weekly Cycles

As noted in the previous report, the February 50% level would define the strength of the bounce in January. (dead cat)

We have another Break & Extend pattern playing out, with two possible patterns...

1. support around the 2016 lows for the next 6 weeks until March.

2. follows the break and extend pattern downward into March approx. 1740

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market SPI Futures

2016 lows continue to support the market, but we haven't seen price able to move above the February 50% level.

In fact, it's looking like it can make another move downward and test the MARCH LOWS, which has been my view for a while now.

However, the next 5-days in US markets could see the S&P test the 2016 50% level (Read US Report).

 

[Frank D]

Australian Stock Market - Dilernia Model

If you’ve been following my posts for a while now you’d know that I was looking for 2016 Primary Lows as major support and then the month March as the next likely 'thrust' pattern upwards.

It was either going to be the March lows or the March 50% level that was going to provide next the robust LONG set-up after those Primary Lows were reached, and as we can see it was the March 50% level that gave us that probable pattern.

If we subscribe to those same patterns repeating then the Australian Market should continue higher for the rest of the year, using the Weekly lows as support and the April Quarter 50% level and the trend guide:- next stop 5330

I’m confident in this happening, but be aware that everything is not 100%, and the start of April (another 5-days of trading) and a break of the weekly lows can change the rules of the game.

 

[systematic]

Australian Stock Market - Dilernia Model
If we subscribe to those same patterns repeating...

...Should we?

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures Aussie Market

The Australian Market continues to move higher after an early dip at the start of April.

Short-term target is the April high and the 2016 50% level :- Random Resistance.

Note:- the Australia Market remains in a Bear Trend whilst it's below the yearly 50% level, however if we subscribe to the Dilernia Principles of Primary Trends we need to look for patterns that suggest the trend will continue upwards into 2017, as part of this year's lows. (Double Bottom)

Those who have read my book will know what I'm talking about.

Whilst the 2016 50% level may or may not stop the trend from rising, the APRIL 50% level is now seen as Support

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S&P 500 E-mini Futures.

Target is the 2016 highs @ 2145, but you could see some resistance around 2013 and a retest of the 2016 50% level before it continues higher.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AUD/USD Forex Report

For those that are long I would look to take something off around .7828-50

The Primary trend remains strong, which could result in further gains in the AUD for the rest of the year (.8060 -
.8160)

Taking partial profits around .7828 - 7850 protects you just in case it zag-zags down towards the 3-week lows once again before the next leg up towards the 2016 Yearly highs.