AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

I am curious about your thoughts on USDJPY during the current financial quarter, if you have a moment.

I don't trade it or track it anymore, I stick to 3:- AUD, Euro & GBP...

The best I can give is an overall view of the US Dollar (Index)

USD Index

I think the USD has found support around the Primary and Secondary lows, and
will begin to rise...

then if it's going to go lower, the next best set-up will align with the June 50% level, and breakout of these larger timeframe support levels...as it struggles to rise higher that the lows of the 4th Quarter in 2010

if that happens the likely trend will continue lower into 2012. (dollar collapse)

In the meantime, I think USD index will be supported for the next
4-weeks:- upwards/ or sideways into June

 

[sinner]

I don't trade it or track it anymore, I stick to 3:- AUD, Euro & GBP...

The best I can give is an overall view of the US Dollar (Index)

USD Index

I think the USD has found support around the Primary and Secondary lows, and
will begin to rise...

then if it's going to go lower, the next best set-up will align with the June 50% level, and breakout of these larger timeframe support levels...as it struggles to rise higher that the lows of the 4th Quarter in 2010

if that happens the likely trend will continue lower into 2012. (dollar collapse)

In the meantime, I think USD index will be supported for the next
4-weeks:- upwards/ or sideways into June

Thanks anyway Frank for your thoughts on the DX.

 

[Frank D]

USD Index

My view is that the USD had found it's lows and would begin to rise upwards, putting pressure on Currenices to drop


There are two possible patterns that can play out


#1) the trend continues up towards the 3rd quarter 50% level in July, as shown in
the left chart.


#2) this current reversal pattern is going to fail to move higher than the
MAY 50% level, and also the lows of the 4th Quarter in 2010...


The market consolidates for the next 4-weeks below these levels, and then there's
the possibility that the larger timeframe support levels fail in the last month of the
2nd Quarter (June)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and daily range

US markets continue to remain above their MAY 50% levels, after finding support
this week.....

And the SPI has rested it's Quarterly 50% level @ 4649, and now we have a 5-day high breakout
on Thursday, which should continue to extend into higher highs by
Friday:- break and extend pattern

MAY 50% level @ 4775, Weekly swing target @ 4805
(as long as it remains above 4731)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

MAY 50% level completed after Thursday's breakout....

But Friday remained within a tight trading range, with little range movement
towards the extension target & Friday's daily highs.

New Weekly levels out tomorrow

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and daily range

The SPI broke its Weekly lows yesterday, and the S&P broke its
Weekly lows last night.

Trend suggests it is moving down into the MAY lows @ 4492/501, and likely
double dip into June lows (unknown as yet)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

The SPI continues to trade below key levels in the Weekly timeframe (4648)
with the expectation that it's trying to move towards the MAY lows.

Overnight, the S&P didn't continue with the Weekly break, instead it rotated
back towards the MAY 50% level @ 1324.50 and stalled.

Therefore it hasn't closed above key levels on Wednesday to help validate
more strength in the short-term:- towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1341.50

That can obviously change overnight.

 

[Frank D]

US Dollar 4th MAY

I think the USD has found support around the Primary and Secondary lows, and
will begin to rise...

then if it's going to go lower, the next best set-up will align with the June 50% level, and breakout of these larger timeframe support levels...if that happens the likely trend will continue lower into 2012. (dollar collapse)

In the meantime, I think USD index will be supported for the next
4-weeks:- upwards/ or sideways into June

We have seen the US dollar rise up from the 2011 lows, which matched the
2nd Quarterly lows in MAY.

Things get critical as of next week, as the market has consolidated coming into
the start of June.

If the USD dollar is going to remain stable then it needs to rise upwards.

If the USD dollar is going to collapse, then the next 5-days will begin to slip and
close below the June 50% level. If that occurs then we have a possible breakout of
the 2011 lows, which will extend towards lows in the 3rd Quarter, but over the
next 6 to 9 months continue towards 2012 lows. (Target unknown as yet)

How the USD performs over the next 5-days will heavily influence the upward trends
in commodities and currencies

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly (24 hour) and Daily

At this stage there is an another rejection pattern occuring from the
June 50% level @ 4734

Whether it continues down into 4649 (Weekly level) today will depend on the
reports coming out...

11.00 am china manu PMI

11.30 am AUS GDP Q

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily

As per Weekly report, I was looking for the S&P to push upwards over the
first 2-days, and then from Wednesday onwards to reverse back down into
the June 50% level.

That played out, but the reversal pattern kept on going, breaking out of the
Wednesday's lows @ 1318, which can often suggest further short-term
weakness:- Thursday's lows

Next 2-days gets interesting, as the S&P can continue remain in a tight trading
band below the June 50% level, but within the 5-day range.

or close below 1301 on Friday, which can lead to more weakness in the
current month.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

I don't think it will be the low in the current Quarterly cycle....

However, I think today the market will find short-term support @ 4575/81
that could lead to a 2-3 day counter-trend move upwards. (depending on the S&P remaining above 1301)

There are two possible patterns today...

Trend guide 4615

#1) market is sold down into 4575/81, finds support and then looks to move
upwards, with a possible target 4644-49

#2) market opens above 4615 and moves upwards into 4644-49, hits resistance
and is then sold down.

don't trade longs below 4575, don't trade shorts above 4650.

I'll give my view on where I think the low will be in tomorrow's
Weekly report

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and S&P 500 Weekly

As Per Weekly report, once both the SPI and S&P move down into the June
lows, I'm looking for a short-term counter trend move upwards.

Therefore Thursday needs to hold support and Friday close upwards.....


Note:- DOW is still 150 points away from it's JUNE lows, so it can drag it
down lower (1-day).

However, any JUNE support is only seen as temporary, as I have the trend
moving towards lower lows in July

 

[Frank D]

SPI Primary and Weekly cycles

Primary 50% level @ 4442 and June lows supports the market, and we have seen a
last week up move to close out the month and 2nd Quarter.

My view is that it's going to make another play for the July lows or
'double-bottom', after this week's rise.

However, I could be wrong and the market continues towards the 3rd
quarterly 50% level @ 4715, and as high as 4804, before the market moves into
another 3-month sideways pattern.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly cycles

As noted a number of weeks ago, I still had the view that there was a potential
lower low pattern in July after an initial up move towards the higher timeframe
50% levels in the last week of the 2nd Quarter.

These BUY zones align with the July lows and also the 3rd Quarterly levels around
4405.

These BUY zones need to be validated with lesser timeframe patterns for a swing
back towards 4721 to 4804…

Because a failure to hold these support levels will see the SPI move down
towards 4137.

A move down towards 4137 will depend a lot on how the S&P reponds to
being back below 1325.

Trend guide for the rest of this week is based on the
Weekly lows @ 4468/70

 

[Frank D]

The SPI has hit the July BUY zones in sycom....These BUY zones need
to be validated with 5-day high breaks. Note:- trading above the blue
channel highs in the 5-day range will be the first sign, and also the Weekly
level @ 4664....Yesterday's report

These July BUY zones now have the potential to swing back towards the higher
timeframe levels of 4721 to 4804.

The first sign of that happening is a 5-day high breakout @ 4500.

However, based on the levels in the market and today's higher open,
4498-4500, could form resistance and push the SPI back down 42 points
towards the Weekly level @ 4464, and as low as 4449.

As noted in the Weekly report, the only thing in my opinion that's going to push
our market down towards 4137 is if the S&P falls over on the back of news that they
fail to lift the debt ceiling

 

[Frank D]

US Dollar Index

3rd Quarter thrust pattern on the USD...

looks to be heading down towards lower lows during the current cycle.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

S&P sell off on today's gap open, as the market was rejected down from
a number of timeframe 50% levels (Daily and Monthly), completing the break
and extend pattern into this week’s lows @ 1271, before the S&P found some
buying support.

Is the S&P going to rise upwards from these lows???

It could, but a couple things traders should consider…

#1) trends that originate from the monthly 50% levels in the first week of the
month can often continue to trend outward during the current 5-day cycle:- top
to bottom. Therefore the changing channels in the 5-day range will be important.

And more importantly…

#2) the failure to reach a 4 trillion spending cut (only 2.5) as part of the
compromise on raising the debt ceiling hasn’t met Standard & Poor’s
requirements.

This has the potential to see the US lose it’s AAA credit rating. If this is
announced it will send markets lower, with a minimum move towards 1251, and
the August lows.

Therefore the current downward trend can stabilise around these lower
levels, but, if the S&P cuts the credit rating of the US, then markets will
spike lower on the news.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 and the SPI (Weekly cycles)

S&P 500:- has continued with the monthly rejection pattern down into
the August lows @ 1251

SPI:- has completed the break and extend pattern from last week's lows
into this week's lows.

This is the first time in 2011 (8-months), that both the Aussie market and
US markets are once again in synch at the same time. (BUY cycles)

What does that mean?

It means that after this week's trading (5-day cycle) there is a possibility
that next week swings back upwards.

However, if S&P 500 continues to extend outward during the current
5-day cycle, it will move down into 1208, whilst the SPI continues down
into 4137/57 (Primary BUY zones)

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Primary cycles and the SPI Monthly cycles

5-day rejection pattern in the S&P 500 (top to bottom) from the August 50% level
is sending the trend down into the 2011 Yearly 50% level @ 1173

This is a critical support level in the S&P, and once this week is over, my view is
that price (once verified next week) will try swing upwards and retest the
Quarterly level @ 1266 over the next few weeks.

However, as the S&P is moving down, the SPI is now trading below
the Primary BUY zone @ 4137 during this 5-day rejection pattern.

That means that the BUY zone needs to be verified by next week's open, and my
view is that the SPI will likely swing towards 4405/4442 and stall.

Anything below 1170 in the S&P 500 is extremely bearish, and likewise the same
in the SPI @ 4137

Today's support in the SPI is @ 4074 (Friday daily range)

 

[Frank D]

S&P Primary and Weekly cycles


S&P has followed the Primary cycles down into
support levels @ 1169/1273.

In my new book there is a section on the current market conditions
from pages 120 to 130, that spells out the possible price action
over the next 2-3 weeks, as described in today's S&P Weekly report.

http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/