AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Break and Extend pattern from yesterday @ 4471 completed overnight
into Thursday's highs @ 4577.

Today's open aligned with the Weekly highs, and today has moved
into another consolidating pattern:- higher open fade.

Any further gains will depend on the price action in the S&P for the next
2-days

 

[Frank D]

SPI Daily range and spiral filter

SPI trading around the weekly highs @ 4569 and the market is consolidating:- resistance.

There has been a shift in the daily pattern from 4510 to 4551, therefore there is now a
possible continuation of the trend using the 'expectation'
of retesting Wednesday's breakout @ 4471 and the next line of
least resistance @ 4440

However, based on the levels in the Weekly timeframe, around 4522 could
end up supporting the SPI today.

Whilst below 4551 the trend bias is down:- random support 4522.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range


Higher daily open aligned with Monday’s highs and a swift down move of
42 points towards support 4542

The rest of today has moved into a consolidating pattern, which is often
the norm after the completion of the 42-point range, and as part of
the trend bias upwards

At this stage the Trend bias is to continue towards the Monthly and
Weekly highs.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

This week has seen a minor reversal pattern into trailing support levels
in both the Weekly and daily ranges:- 4526-4530

Trend bias is to continue towards the Monthly and Weekly highs:- 4628-54

Today:- Whilst price remains above 4565 in the daily range the
short-term trend is up (21 to 42 points)…

21 points already completed and hitting the daily highs @ 4589

Daily highs @ 4589, may or may not act as resistance today.

Simply because the larger trends are trying to move upwards.

 

[Frank D]

SPI monthly and Weekly

Last week saw the market reverse down into trailing support levels @
4526 and then continue up towards the September highs:- 4628

The upside target during the 3rd quarter is 4672, which may or may
not reach, as the current price action the looks to be losing
some momentum around these monthly highs.

Any weakness during the next 2 weeks would see the SPI back down into
the September 50% levels once again @ 4443, verified by a 5-day
breakout.

The trend direction is going to be helped or hindered by the trend direction
in the S&P500, which may align with price reaching the monthly highs @ 1126

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and S&P 500

S&P 500 reaches the September highs @ 1126

Any loss of momentum in the Australian Market is going to coincide with
this pattern in the S&P 500.

Usually a daily reversal pattern in the S&P, would move down further and
test the 5-day 50% level on the same day, providing another Sell pattern
on Wednesday.

Last night's reversal bar didn't move down far enough, therefore it is
too early to tell whether markets move back towards their midpoints at the
start of the 4th Quarter.

 

[Frank D]

SPI monthly and Daily range

3rd Quarter Target reached along with the September highs:- 4672-76

The way i'm looking at the market is; further gains in the 4th Quarter
towards 4895

However, I would like to see a either a retest of the September 50%
levels during this month...

Or a drop in the 4th Quarter midpoint for the next leg upwards,
starting in October.

What I don't want to see it September continue to move upwards (gone to cash on Stocks)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and daily range


Same pattern as Friday:- Support with an upwards bias of
21 points, resulting in more consolidation during the 'day session'

Whilst the market remains above the highs @ 4628 the trend bias is
upwards…

However, as per Weekly report I have the view that the S&P is starting this week with a 2-day reversal pattern: -
trend guide 1116.50 (currently supported the S&P during globex hours)

Therefore, the SPI is once again going to be helped or hindered by the
price action in the S&P 500 over the next 2-days. If the S&P 500
follows with a 2-day reversal pattern (continuation down from Friday's highs)....

Then the Weekly level @ 4593 in the aussie market will be the trend guide
for the rest of the week.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

S&P continues to help the aussie market remain supported with
last night's up move.

I favoured this week starting with a 2-day reversal pattern, but instead
we have a 2-day stalling pattern above 4593 with today's reversal down
from Tuesday's highs

Until there's a 5-day low breakout, the congestion around the highs (upward bias) can
continue until the start of the 4th Quarter.

4th Quarter target remains 4895, but my preference is for the market
move down and then continue higher from the start of October...

rather than see September continuing higher and reaching 4895.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly

Expectation that SPI would hit resistance @ 4672-76 has played out.

The reversal pattern down into the monthly 50% levels hasn't played out,
as 4602 continues to support the market this week.

My expectation is for the trend to continue upwards in the 4th quarter...

However, my ideal pattern would be to see a rotation back down into
the October 50% level:- form support and then HOOK back above
4584.

For a continuation up towards 4895 over the next 2-3 months during
the 4th Quarter, as long as the market remains above the 4th
Quarter 50% level


Next Week:- trend guide is 4658 depending on the price action in
the US overnight

If the market is below 4658 for the first 2 days next week, then i'll look
for a 'short' trade set-up from Wednesday onwards, as part of a
rotation back down into October 50% levels

Note:- New Book should be out in about 3-weeks

 

[barney]

Please remember to let me know as soon as the new book hits the "shelves" Frank .... Looking forward to it.
Cheers.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P price action last night suggests further gains towards the Weekly
highs and then to 1174 +

Wednesday on the SPI won't open below 4658, (sell set-up pattern)
and probably continue up towards 4895 sooner than I hoped for.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Wednesday sell day, but not precisely from my upper resistance levels
@ 4724.

Confirmed break @ 4694 verified the sell day down towards 4658, which
is currently the trend guide for this week.

I would continue to be bearish in the short-term only if this price action
was occurring below 4658, or today opened below 4658.

At this stage it’s too early to tell other than a 1-day sell pattern
set-up

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Current price action helps validate my overall view and 'preferred pattern'
of rotating down from September resistance levels and back
towards the 4th Quarter support levels

The break of 4658, which I didn't think was going to
happen (Wednesday 'sell' pattern), was what was needed.

Any further weakness will need to be helped by the S&P moving lower as
well.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD Primary and Secondary cycles

2nd quarter sell off in the AUD down into the Yearly 50% level (#10)

3rd Quarter support, and then the continuation of the up trend # 12…..

This resulted in a breakout that should extend up into the October highs:- break and extend pattern

Note:- Yearly high completion target is 97.86, therefore the AUD begins to hit higher timeframe resistance levels between 97.86 and the October highs.

I'll be Looking for a rotation back down towards 93.61 probably in the 3rd week of October.

If the AUD is going to continue higher thereafter, it will be from the
November 50% levels towards higher highs in 2011 (Target unknown as yet)

If there is going to be higher highs in the 4th Quarter and 2011, then
validate the next UP leg using forward timeframe analysis and the
November 50% levels.

 

[Frank D]

NYMEX OIL

My view is that OIL has hit resistance levels in October, and begin to
move back down into 75.63 during the 4th Quarter

However, it might not happen right away, as Friday's 5-day low can
start next week with a 2-day up move.

Ideal set-ups probably happen later in the month, and then verified by
price trading below the Weekly 50% levels.

 

[Frank D]

NYMEX OIL


My view OIL has hit resistance around the 4th quarter highs in October
and is now trying to move lower.

Once again we similar pattern as last week, which can see another
2-day rise upwards early next week.

if that happens then $83.44 will be seen as resistance and a possible 'Wednesday' sell pattern.

At this stage I'm not expecting a large and dramatic reversal down into 75.68 during the
current month....

but we move back inside the channels for the first time in a number of weeks (consolidation with
a downward bias)

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

As mentioned a number of week’s ago….

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=583766&postcount=795

Expectation that the AUD would rise up into .9979 and reverse down in the
3rd Week verified with a 5-day breakout on Tuesday.

OIL Futures

Nymex oil futures has followed a similar pattern as previous post
suggested, with this week’s rise up into 83.44 on Monday providing a
short set-up (sell higher daily open and resistance)

S&P 500 (chart Below)

And as per Weekly Report....

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

Once the S&P 500 hit 1182, my expectation was it was hitting brick wall
in the 4th Quarter. This hit on Monday and Tuesday like all other
derivative markets have followed a similar 3-week reversal pattern and
a trending 'sell' day on Tuesday.

However, I would have preferred Tuesday to have broken support in the
daily range.

Doesn't happen often when they all align, but it makes it sweet

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

Aussie market continues to consolidate during October.

upside target remains 4900 during the 4th Quarter.

Ideal pattern would be a retest of the support levels in November,
verifed by a lower weekly close and then the following week continues higher.

Not ideal to see a lower weekly close next month and the following week
trading below those levels in the 4th Quarter.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P continues up into the November's highs...

Helped by the Federal reserve coming out late yesterday with
an announcement that they are printing $600 Billion to stimulate the
economy....

However, the Monthly close above October's highs help set-up the expectation that the trend
was continuing higher:- break and extend pattern into the following monthly highs