AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI futures

4675 holds support, as the S&P 500 continues higher.

There is a breakout of the 5-day high today @ 4734, with the expectation that
it will try and continue towards the Weekly highs today. (above the Weekly 50%)

The continuation of the trend today will be helped or hindered by employment numbers out @
11:30am

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures (Dilernia Model)

After finding support @ 4675 last week, my view is that the SPI will
continue towards the January highs…

Market remains orderly between the levels, after last week's highs, then yesterday’s
reversal down into the Weekly 50% level @ 4741, and today's move back towards
the highs using 4753 as support.

As illustrated in my new book ...Price moves up into the Weekly
highs and then reverses down into the Weekly 50% level…and then continues
towards the monthly highs later in the same month.

Following Weekly highs will have less probability of stalling the market


However, the price action will be determined by the S&P remaining stable, which
is never guaranteed at these upper levels.

As per weekly report in the S&P, 1291.75 (resistance) has provided a minor
reversal from yesterday's high (1291.50) of 8.5 points. (partial exit)

And I'm treating Tuesday as part of a 2nd day reversal, as long as it remains below
the same level. (intra-day channel highs)

Otherwise the Primary trend in the S&P will continue to push up towards 1300,
whilst the DOW lags in the same price action towards it's own cycle highs @ 11904,
as happened in the first Quarter of 2010 (last Year)

And the SPI will continue towards it's own monthly highs

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily range

S&P has moved down into 1277, which is the pattern that I was looking for on
Tuesday, as part of a minor reversal pattern.

1277 can act as random support for the rest of the week…

However, around these highs in January, it’s all about finding levels to short the
market from, and start holding positions.

Simply because I believe there’s far more chance of the market heading lower,
than continually making incremental higher highs.

The S&P doesn't need to reach a precise 1300 during the first Quarter for the market
to reverse down.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Double Weekly highs on the SPI this week, followed by a reversal back down
into Friday's lows (random support), helped by the price action in the S&P on
Wednesday night

The market may find support today (friday's lows) and then rotate back upwards
in afternoon trading, as it still remains above the Key January 50% level @ 4703.

but not whilst it's below the Weekly 50% level @ 4741.

It's the price action in the S&P from next week onwards that's the concern
for markets in general.

Weekly report out tomorrow.

 

[Frank D]

SPI (Dilernia Model)

As per Weekly report, I was looking for the SPI to move into a 2-day reversal
pattern upwards at the start of this week from Friday's lows.

This pattern completed with today's highs, and the market is now moving into a
consolidating pattern.

Any further gains in the SPI towards the January highs in the last week of the
month are going to be helped or hindered by the price action in the S&P 500
overnight.

 

[Frank D]

S&P500 (Dilernia Model)

My view was that the S&P has reached its highs and was reversing down, however
I needed to see a reversal pattern on a 'Friday' down into the Weekly 50% level.

The previous Week didn't play out as expected, and we saw the Market push
back towards the highs (as noted in last week's report)

And finally this week provided the reversal down into the Weekly 50% level,
with Friday's price action.

Weekly reports out now....

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

SPI continues into the Weekly highs @ 4816/18, (random resistance)

There is a breakout of the daily highs on Friday @ 4806, which suggests more gains.

Based on the current patterns, the SPI is likely to follow the double Weekly high (next week's highs) & into the February highs

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly & Weekly

SPI has been trading around the February highs all week, as this pattern completes
the 2-month upward trend during the current Quarterly cycle @ 4883

Personally, I wouldn't buy into the market around these highs, as I would wait until
the market rotates back down into trailing support levels.

Next week's level is something to keep an eye on @ 4857:-

My view is that the market will try and rotate back down...

however, as noted in the Weekly report:- there is a larger primary cycle trying to
push the market up towards 5093 by the 2nd Quarter.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly Report, the trend guide is based on the Quarterly and
Weekly level @ 4881-83

However, this has been super-seeded by today's breakout of the 5-day
lows @ 4889, helped by the rejection downward from 4917.

At this stage I'd treat the market as reversing down from the February highs,
& back towards the trailing support levels

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

SPI has moved down into the trailing Weekly support levels @ 4767, after Monday’s break of
the 5-day lows

As mentioned in yesterday's recap... 4767 is a robust support zone in the SPI, but
only after 1295 plays a supporting role in the S&P 500, as it did last night, and as
it has done so for the past 6 months since September 2010.

Currently we have a short-term counter-trend move up from the current lows.

However, I don’t know whether it’s going to last more than a few days,
simply because the S&P is trading around the Yearly highs in 2011, which is a
major resistance zone during the first Quarterly cycle.

My gut feeling says a minor counter-trend move, but a potential for more
weakness from March onwards.

Weekly report out tomorrow.

 

[fingl]

U posted charts with 3 lines support and resistance. How do u calculate the 3 lines projection target for next month?

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

As mentioned in the most recent Weekly report….

"Weekly support @ 1295 is simply a short-term counter trend move back to retest
the breakout @ 1329.

If the market stalls @ 1329-31, and is once again trading below the Weekly 50%
level, then traders need to keep an eye on the lower Weekly level @ 1304"

The Market has stalled @ 1329, and it did reverse down 8.5 points to be trading below
the Weekly 50% level.

However, Monday failed to remain below that level, and has instead remained above
@ 1322.50 during cash market hours.

My view of a short-term counter-trend move upwards and then more weakness from
MARCH onwards now looks less likely, unless there's selling during globex hours coming
into the start of the new month of March.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

Resistance 1331-1334

Reversal at the start of MARCH back down into 1300-1304.

Now things start to get interesting....

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly (day session)

As noted in the Aussie Index Weekly report...

"We should all keep an eye on how the S&P 500 trades over the
next 2-days, as this could help set-up the overall trend over the next few weeks.

As there is the potential for more weakness if the market begins trading below
the monthly 50% level in MARCH."

The SPI is currently being supported at the MARCH 50% level and Weekly
lows....(4764-78)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly, Weekly & Daily

As per Weekly index report, looking for a Gap closure down that matches the
critical support levels in the SPI for MARCH:- 4807.

This was set-up with Monday's rejection pattern @ 4844

As per Weekly report, the larger timeframe cycle suggest further gains using
4807 as support ;- orderly patterns towards new highs, as long price remains
above 4807

However, that can quickly change if the S&P shows further weakness whilst it's
trading around it's 2011 highs.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly (day) and 5-day pattern (24 hour)

SPI continues to find support in the day session around it's Weekly lows and
Monthly 50% level in March.

Trend guide for the rest of this week is 4806/7 (tomorrow)

There's continued weakness in US markets (selling around its highs), but a
failure to break support levels.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and Weekly

the SPI has moved down towards the March lows in the day
session @ 4696....

This could result in the market finding random support, but it;s likely to
struggle to rise higher than 4772 for the rest of this month

There are two patterns at play in the larger cycles....


#A) market is rotating back towards the 2nd Quarterly 50% level in
April @ 4652, which forms support


#B) market continues to drop down towards 4566 during the last month of
the Quarter, and then 4652 becomes the trend guide for the 2nd Quarter.

If the market opens below 4652 by April, then there's potentially more
weakness to start the 2nd Quarter.

Note:- S&P hasn't as yet broken support

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Break and Extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe has completed from last
week's break @ 4772 into this week's lows @ 4582

SPI has completed Set-up B, (as described above), and moved down into 4566

Currently supported at the Quarterly 50% level and Monday's lows.

My view is that the market will try and swing back towards a retest of
the breakout later this week, but it might struggle to rise above 4594 today.

If it does rise above 4594 then my swing target is 4650

Note:- S&P is back around support levels, if these support levels fails then
the larger reversal in the SPI is down towards 4444

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

My view was that the SPI would rise upwards from 4565 and retest
the breakout, but then move back down into April's lows

Today's trend guide @ 4594 was the support level, but that failed after rising
21 points, and now the market has continued down into Tuesdays' lows, and likely
to continue down towards 4442.

S&P support levels have now failed.

Those support levels have begun to break today during globex hours,
and whilst below those levels my view is that the S&P will begin to look for a
larger reversal pattern towards 1210.

The SPI lower level is @ 4442, however if the S&P continues down into 1210,
the SPI is likely to push through that level.

4442 will be the trend guide for the rest of 2011.

 

[Frank D]

S&P500

S&P continues with the break of support levels this week.

first target is 1230 this week (minimum move).

There is a breakout of the weekly lows, therefore the trend is based
on following the break and extend pattern into next week’s lows.

Which could see the S&P down around 1202-1210.