AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and R42 range

As per Weekly report, my view is that this Quarter will remain in a
large sideways consolidating pattern with the possibilty that the market
can still continue towards the monthly lows during this Quarter.

Trend guide this week are the Weekly 50% levels:- 4395-4407

Whilst below pullback is towards 4299

above and the trend continues towards the July 50% levels +

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P has continued into 1099 and stalled.

As per the Weekly report, my view is that 1099 is resistance on the S&P
and that this Quarter will move in a sideways pattern between 1099 and
the monthly lows.

Yesterday's high and 'down' day doesn't validate my view, other than it
being a 1 day reversal. I need to see lesser timeframe levels break to
help confirm my view

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

1099 was the recent high on the S&P, and a reversal down into a
lower Weekly close on Friday helps verify my view

Two possible patterns that may play out for the rest of the month....

1. This month continues to trend downwards and into the July lows with
a target @ 969

or

The market consolidates between the Weekly levels until the end of
July, with a bias towards 969 in during this Quarter:- 3rd Quarter
consolidation.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

SPI currently remaining within the Weekly levels, after testing the 50% level @ 4316
and rising up on Tuesday from the daily filter @ 4326.

Any further gains this week:- 4403 and then 4464.

However, I still have the view of lower lows during the 3rd Quarter.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P currently consolidating between the Weekly levels, which may
continue until the end of July....

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P consolidating within the Weekly levels during July.

Trend guide remains 1099...

Whilst above the trend bias is towards 1117

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P has continued up from 1099 and into the Weekly highs:- minor resistance.

These resistance levels could last for 2-3 days and remain range
bound between 1092 and 1117.

Whilst the market remains above 1099 the bias is to continue higher,
and those weekly highs have less probability of resistance by Friday with
the next move up towards 1135.

If the market struggles over the next 3-days and drifts down towards
1092 by Friday, then August 50% level becomes the trend guide.

At this stage I don't have a long term view of the market, and I'm treating
each weekly timeframe as short-term 2 & 3 days patterns....

but 1099 still remains the critical trend guide for the 3rd Quarter.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

A number of days ago I suggested the market can consolidate for the next
3-days between 1117 and 1092 until Friday.

Thursday’s consolidation pattern started with the resistance and high around 1112 and the continuation below 1100

3-days is a long time in the markets and sequence of events over the
past 3-days makes it hard to see the market set-up for a Friday rally towards 1135, as suggested.

If the events over the past 3-days differed, for example Wednesday
moved down into 1092 and Thursday closed higher, then it is much
easier finding a high probability set-up on the last day of the Week & Month

At this stage the August 50% level starting next week will the trend guide

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

Based on current patterns and the price action on Friday, my view is
for the S&P to continue towards next week's highs.

Friday's low normally sets up a continuation trend upwards over the next
2-3 days

As long as price remains above key timeframe levels:- 1090

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly

Both the SPI and S&P continue to hug the highs without reversing down.

Jobs data out tonight and this will let us know whether the trend
continues upwards during the 3rd Quarter….

My view after last Friday's price action is to continue higher, with the
SPI moving towards 4672 and then towards the monthly highs in
Sepetmber.

However, any negative news on the Jobs front (I'd be surprised), and
it's more consolidating over the next 3-weeks back towards the Weekly
lows.

 

[Frank D]

SPI (left) S&P 500 (right)

I would normally treat the market with an upwards bias for the first
2-days towards the Weekly highs (1137) based on last Friday’s price action in the S&P 500

However, it has struggled to rise upwards, and the SPI has struggled to
move beyond 4565 in August

Next 3-days looks choppy (UP & DOWN days) with a possible
rotation towards the Weekly 50% levels.

Both markets continue to remain above key levels in August (50% levels)
for the moment

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and daily range

Market heading down into the Weekly 50% level @ 4443 & 4435

However, the pattern that confirms a bearish scenario is a breakout of the
5-day lows @ 4476 and trading below the August 50% levels @ 4486.

I would look at the current price action with a view towards a lower Friday close, with a potential move towards the Weekly lows @ 4375- 4330 at this stage.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

Same pattern as the SPI after the first 2-days, and with Tuesday's
close below 1112-1116 this set-up a minimum down into the daily lows
@ 1103

Which then resulted in a breakout on Wednesday and a continuation down into lower Weekly levels.

I'd like to see a minor counter-trend move upwards (1 -day) but whether
price moves above 1099-1102 again during August is another matter.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly

SPI moves down into Weekly lows @ 4330, after consolidating
below 4375 yesterday

Friday has seen the Weekly support @ 4330 verified with a shift in
the 5-day filter @ 4344 and then a consolidation back above 4375...

And now the counter-trend continues upwards back towards
the 50% levels

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and daily range

Australian market continues to look well supported (above the Yearly 50%
level @ 4295), as 3-week lows is often a robust swing low during the
month, but it’s not a forgone conclusion that the trend will continue
higher just yet, as price is still below key Monthly and Quarterly levels.

At the moment we have a 2-day swing pattern from a lower Weekly
open into resistance levels and a continuation of 3rd quarter consolidation.

It’s now it’s up to the S&P to decide if the trend continues higher or not, as the S&P remains below key Weekly levels.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

As per Weekly report, 1098.50 is a critical level during the 3rd Quarter.

We have seen the past 2-days rise upwards and hit 1098.50 and stall.

If the trend during globex hours drifts and Thursday is below 1084.75,
my view is a possible 'sell pattern' continuing towards a lower Friday
close:- random length

Random support are the Weekly lows, however there is a larger trend
that's driving the market, and those Weekly lows have less probability
of providing a robust swing point this week.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

After 2-days of trying to crack 1098.50 and failing, this set-up Thursday as
a down day but it needed to be verified with price trading below 1084.75 resulting in a
continuation down into Thursday's lows.

Friday provided an ideal rejection from 1076 into random support using
the Weekly and Daily lows:- 8.5 reversal ($425USD)

I still have a view of more weakness during the 3rd quarter, however
I'd begin to look for short-term counter trend moves next week with
the trend guide being 1077.50.

Day traders focus on 8.5 to 14 point ranges (spiral points)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Continued 3rd quarter weakness with the August 50% levels pushing the
SPI back down into the highest timeframe 50% level @ 4295.

This level is seen as a robust support zone for 2010, however it's
the price action in the S&P 500 that’s driving the markets lower.

And any further weakness in the S&P 500 as it moves down towards
the August levels @ 1016-22 will see the SPI lower

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

As pointed out, the Australian market continues to remain well supported above 4295 (Yearly 50% level)...

However, it's the price action in the S&P that's going to potentially drag
the market lower during the 3rd quarter.

Last day of the month and September 50% levels come into play.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Shift in market dynamics from August into September has seen a
5-day breakout, @ 4471 and looks to be heading into 4522-27
in the short-term

If this pattern continues as per Weekly report, that upside target
during September is 4672.

Market dynamics in US markets aren't the same at this stage, as the S&P opens below
their September 50% levels today.