AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

DOW and S&P Futures

As per my Weekly report on the 8th MAY….

"I have seen these exact patterns continue higher and move into a
3-day UP move to retest the previous Weekly lows. (breakout)

That means that by Wednesday price can be trading above the
MAY 50% level, but from Thursday onwards look for a move back down."

Last Week saw a Weekly low breakout and trend spike down into the
MAY lows.

This week saw the 3-day counter-trend move beginning from the
Weekly 50% level and retesting the previous Weekly low breaks and then
a Thursday sell pattern with the expectation of a lower Friday close.

However, normally Thursday has a much greater range on the
downside (trading below the monthly 50% levels once again)

At this stage, price is still trading above those monthly 50% levels, therefore a lower Friday close isn’t set in stone.

Any further weakness on Friday and likely reversal pattern is towards
the Weekly 50% levels once again.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Weekly

Probability pattern was based on a 3-day counter-trend move and then a
4th day sell pattern on Thursday back down into the Weekly 50% level
and Friday's lows.

Friday's continuation (down-day) was verified with the break of the daily
50% level.

 

[Frank D]

SPI futures (Day Session)

Weekly low breakout in MAY and below the MAY 50% level @ 4761

Extension down into MAY lows @ 4457 and then a 3-day counter-trend move back into the Weekly 50% level last week.

Test and reject pattern last week (Weekly 50%), after last Thursday's high & reversal patterns in US markets (lower friday close)

Break and extend pattern completes @ 4328. (Day session only)

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 futures

Break and extend patterns in the S&P will complete on Friday.

Break occured two weeks ago @ 1173, and then the 3-day counter-trend move into last Thursday's highs.

And the extension down into Weekly lows by Friday.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Futures

"Thursday breakout and expectation that price is heading down into
the daily lows on Friday.

If and when those Weekly lows and Friday lows occur I'm expecting a
larger swing pattern back towards the June 50% levels"...Friday's report.

Text book patterns on this downtrend and into Friday's lows. That
completes the break and extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe from
2 weeks ago.

Precise bottom on Friday and swing back towards the Daily 50% level.

And as per my view:- price will try and swing back towards the
monthly 50% levels in June.


Current support levels are valid in MAY but will drop lower in June

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures:- Weekly and Daily range


Breakout of the MAY lows in the SPI @ 4457.

This week has seen a retest of the Weekly 50% level and whilst below
4356 the bias is to continue down.

The Aussie market support levels @ 4457 failed as the S&P moved down
into last Friday’s lows, and whilst below the MAY lows price can often
continue down in the following month (June), unless the S&P 500 drags the Aussie market upwards in the short-term.

With the subsequent bounce off the Weekly lows in the S&P on Friday
I thought that US markets would have remained above 1070-74
until the start of June before the next potential leg down.

Because the S&P is now trading below 1070-74 (MAY low breakout
and below the Quarterly 50% level) there is the view that price is
rotating back towards the Yearly 50% level @ 969.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and Daily range

Same pattern as Friday:- Weekly and Daily low support and higher daily
close.

This time with a close above 5-day 50% level.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and 5-day range


We can see our market have major support around the Yearly 50% @ 4295

However, there’s a ton of resistance today on the SPI @ 4457 (MAY lows)

This could result in the market remaining choppy around today’s
highs (Friday’s highs @ 4464) and could even see a late sell just to keep
the market capped under this level. (4457)

However, I’m still factoring the S&P 500 rising up in the short-term, which is probably have the SPI aligning with the June 50% levels next week.

Then it becomes interesting…..

 

[Frank D]

Weekly report written 15th August 2009....

"3d Quarter 'thrust' pattern into the 2009 Yearly 50% level has
completed from the March lows.

Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level,
and continue up from the 50% levels and into the highs, which align with the Yearly 2010 highs.

If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level
in 2010 and consolidate for a number of Quarters during next year and
move into a long term sideways pattern during the 2nd half of 2010"

9 months later and this pattern has played out precisely in the
Australian market. The Yearly 50% level in 2010 is supporting the market
and we can now moved into a multi-sideways consolidation pattern over
the next 2-Quarters?

However, what happens if the S&P 500 follows the same pattern and
moves down into the 2010 50% level, that is 100 points lower or
1000 points in the DOW.

In conclusion:- in my opinion it's too early to get comfortable
with current support levels as there are a couple of lesser timeframes
that still have potential bearish patterns.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Monthly and Weekly

Major support in the S&P continues as the Weekly timeframe remains in
MAY until the close of the week

This week has seen a dip down into 1067 and now a swing back towards
the June 50% levels, and which should align with the Weekly timeframe (next week)

Those June 50% levels become the critical levels for next week.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly

As pointed out, it's too early to get comfortable with current support
levels, as the lesser timeframes continue to have bearish patterns in June.

The Australian Market continues to remain supported above the
Yearly 50% level @ 4296, and may do so for the rest of 2010 into 2011
( large consolidating pattern over the next 2 Quarters)

However, it's the S&P that's my concern.

If the S&P follows the move towards 969 in the 3rd quarter, it will put
the Aussie market around 3401 (max move 3061 on futures) and that would bottom out the market.

As the other thread says..... (BUY with open arms)

I'm not saying it will go that low, but is a possibility simply based on the
S&P patterns.

 

[healthandwealth]

this is a really interesting thread! is the S&P and spi ready to drop or will they go higher? they seem to be at the top line now. How can we calculate the figures for next week? thanks

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 (left) & SPI (Right)

With the Quarterly 50% level support @ 1074 and trading above the
weekly 50% level this week, the natural swing has been back to the
weekly highs and June 50% levels @ 1113

These upper levels are seen as resistance for this week only:- minor resistance for the next 3-days


Normally what happens is that the weekly highs are much higher.

The market moves up into the weekly highs reverses down into next Week’s 50%
level, which by now is above the monthly 50% level, and then the trend
continues up over the next 2-months.


However, these 3-weekly highs in the S&P match the month 50% levels, and
a reversal down into next week's 50% level is still below the monthly
50% level.

Therefore, I'm still unsure whether the trend continues higher or it
splutters into the end of the month and the start of the 3rd Quarter

Currently the market is now trading between two Weekly levels @ 1102
& 1113.

At this stage I have the view that the S&P is trying to swing back
down towards next week's 50% level, simply using ‘history’ to
pre-empt the current move.

But for that to happen the market needs to be trading below 1102.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SPI Trading around the June 50% levels after hitting the Weekly highs yesterday.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

These upper levels are seen as resistance for this week only:- minor resistance for the next 3-days

S&P has closed around the Weekly highs without any minor reversal
pattern within the 5-day range.

Based on the Weekly close, and as long as price remains above 1105.75 (next week)
the bias is to continue up over the next 2-weeks and the start of the
3rd Quarter.

There could be a minor reversal pattern next week towards the
Weekly 50% level early next week, as previously described, but I wouldn't
be sweating on it.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

"Normally what happens is that the weekly highs are much higher, the
market moves up into the weekly highs reverses down into the Weekly 50%
level, which by now is above the monthly 50% level, and then the trend
continues up over the next 2-months.

A reversal down into next week's 50% level is still below the monthly 50% level"

The S&P has completed that exact pattern into the Weekly 50% level
@ 1089.75, which would normally lead to the market rising upwards into
the end of month (2 weeks) and up into July.

However, the price action that is taking place is below 3rd month 50%
level coming into the end of the Quarter, and also trading below the
daily lows on Tuesday. (negative)

If the market is going higher it needs to be closing back above 1106.50
by Friday

If this week fails to move back above the June 50% level, the 3rd
Quarter can start with a negative move down towards the July lows.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Last Week's reversal pattern below the June 50% level and this
normally leads to a continuation of the trend during the 2nd Quarter
and extension down into the 3rd. (July's lows)

Early rise today of 42 points but the reversal back below 4380 sent the
SPI into Tuesday's lows @ 4326 (random support)

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

S&P continues down into June lows on the last day of the month
and most likely push down into July's lows. (random 3rd Quarter support)

Larger trend pullback remains around 969 for 2010

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly

Break and Extend pattern from 4744 in MAY has completed in July @ 4170 (sycom).

This could see a swing back towards next week's 50% level, depending
on price action in US markets on Friday.

I still have the view that the market is moving down towards the
July
lows, therefore next week's 50% level is the trend guide

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily

4170 continues to support the market, with today's UP move beginning
from Tuesday's Daily lows and a swing back towards the 5-day 50%
level @ 4270.

At this stage my expectation is only a short-term counter-trend move, with
a larger timeframe downward trend still in play.

Weekly 50% level 4332

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

SPI capped under the Weekly 50% level @ 4332, but most likely headed
towards Thursday's highs @ 4350. (sycom)

I was expecting the Weekly 50% level to send the SPI back down into
the July lows, but the S&P's rally and daily close above the Weekly 50% level can see more short-term gains.

S&P's rally didn't begin from any higher timeframe support levels during
July, which is a bummer....

As I was looking for swing patterns back towards the monthly 50% levels in July but only after hitting July's lows first.