AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

SPI has completed the move back into the previous Weekly breakout in
the first 2-days of the week @ 4752.

This is part of retesting the previous Weekly breakout in the
first 2-days, and once validated the market often
continues towards this week’s highs, as part of the trend continuing higher.

However, I have the same expectation in the S&P 500, as part of a
2-day reversal pattern back towards 1201.

If that happens overnight, the SPI will open lower on Wednesday, as the market hits the 2nd monthly highs in November and once again moves into another consolidating pattern during the current quarter.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Early support @ 4744 providing a 21 point up move on Wednesday...

However, support failed after lunch and the Australian market moves
back into a rotation pattern down into Wednesday's lows:- random support

Looks like more consolidation in the 4th Quarter (above 4582).

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

Market once again looks to be moving into another consolidation phase
during November between the Weekly levels.

Support as shown around 4582

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

SPI coming down into support levels once again @ 4571-82.

If the market is going to go higher then these levels need to be verified
by this week's Friday close (or the next) and then continue higher in the
last week of the current month and then push upwards in the first week of December from the December 50% level

What we also notice is that December has a higher step formation.

This can often end up a bearish pattern (please refer to new book
regarding forward bearish patterns)

 

[Frank D]

SPI futures:- Dilernia Model

SPI is down into major support levels in the 4th Quarter

There is also a breakout of the weekly lows @ 4593, which could result in
the next 3-days consolidation around major support levels.


As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the up trend won't normally
happen until the last week of the current month (next week) and
December pushes up from the new monthly 50% level.


Up trend will be helped by the following week rising up from major support
& trading above the higher step & 50% level in December, which can
often be bearish.


Otherwise if Support doesn't hold the trend bias is down towards 4340
for the start of 2011, as per recent Weekly report.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures:- Dilernia Model

Higher timeframe support and a swing back towards the 5-day
breakout @ 4585

As per morning report, the market can remain consolidating under 4593
for the next 2-days (Weekly lows)

or there's possibility of closing yesterday's breakout @ 4621-25

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures:- Dilernia model

Continuation from Yesterday....

Tuesday’s breakout @ 4621-25 and retest with today's higher open

Often the market will retest the previous breakout, which then forms
resistance, helped by today’s levels @ 4516

There will be no leads from US markets overnight (Thanksgiving)… but the trend guide
tomorrow will be the Weekly lows @ 4593.

Either the market continues upwards from yesterday’s reversal
and higher timeframe support levels towards 4688

Or below 4593 and the market moves into a lower Weekly close
around higher timeframe support levels

 

[Frank D]

SPI futures:- Dilernia model

Last week rising up from higher timeframe support levels.

Interesting price action will be from Wednesday onwards and the start
of December

 

[Frank D]

SPI futures (Dilernia model)

Last day of the month and the market remains consolidating above
higher timeframe support levels…

However, those levels shift dynamically starting from tomorrow.

Market remains in a 3-day sell cycle @ 4629.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

Higher timeframe support levels confirmed with today's breakout of the
5-day high @ 4635 (3-day cycle 4637)

first target reached @ 4696 (Weekly 50% level)... with an expectation of
a break and extend pattern into Friday's highs

I'm expecting more gains next week....

However, there is the possbility that price revists the breakout
and the November 50% levels for 1 day 'depending on the price action
in the S&P 500 overnight'

 

[Frank D]

SPI futures (24 hour market)


Break and extend pattern from Thursday's highs completes into
Friday's highs @ 4746 (random resistance)

In a market that's trying to trend higher....

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures:- Dilernia model

Any further gains during December will be dependant on Support
holding around 4681-88.

Current price action is a reversal pattern towards trailing support
levels.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

sycom went down into a lower of 4690 and today set-up the next long
trade back into the highs using 4714 as the trend guide & support.

Currently there is 'resistance' around these upper levels…

But I’m looking for the market to close on it’s highs on Friday.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures:- Dilernia Model

As mentioned over 3-weeks ago…

Last week of the month (November) will move up
from support and continue higher during the first week of December.

This is what we have seen happen since then.

I also mentioned back then…

The only potential bearish pattern to appear would
be a 2nd week reversal and a weekly close below the
December 50% level.

Next week begins the 2nd week…

Therefore the trend remains up with the expectation the market is
heading towards higher highs into 2011

However, be aware if coming into the end of next week and the market
is trading below 4689, as it will often put pressure on the market for the
rest of the month.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures:- Dilernia Model

As mentioned over 3-weeks ago…

Last week of the month (November) will move up
from support and continue higher during the first week of December.

This is what we have seen happen since then.

I also mentioned back then…

The only potential bearish pattern to appear would
be a 2nd week reversal and a weekly close below the
December 50% level.

Next week begins the 2nd week…

Therefore the trend remains up with the expectation the market is
heading towards higher highs into 2011

However, be aware if coming into the end of next week and the market
is trading below 4689, as it will often put pressure on the market for the
rest of the month.

Note:- Please refer to pages 110 & 111 of my new book, as it describes
in detail these exact same patterns that we have seen over the
past number of weeks

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

Trend remains stable during December, and there’s no sign of a
2nd week reversal pattern based on the current price action

If there was, the market would already be trading below the 3-day
cycle @ 4751 and heading down on Friday and closing below 4690.

At this stage whilst the market is trading below 4780 the trend bias is
to move lower…

But as we have seen all this week, the market is lucky to move more than
21 points during the day, and hasn't completed the usual
42 points all week

 

[Frank D]

S&P Monthly and Weekly (Dilernia Model)

S&P completes the break and Extend pattern from the October highs @ 1174 into the
December highs @ 1249

DOW is lagging in the same pattern, so the S&P is likely to hang around these
upper levels for a number of days.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range

Last day of the Primary cycle and short -term weakness, as the market remains
below 4791 this week.

Random support on Friday's lows (42 points down from yesterday's highs)

Weekly report out tomrrow

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and Daily range:- Dilernia model

I have no idea what triggered that drop, "flash crash", but that completes the
move down into the 3-week lows...

which is the pattern that I normally associate with the market moving down and then continuing higher
in the following Quarter.


Previously weekly report.

http://austindex.blogspot.com/2010/12/aussie-index-spi-18th-dec-2010-weekly.html

"In the short-term the trend remains stable with an upwards bias, however we need
to keep an eye on the possible SPI move down into the Weekly lows @ 4692
over the next 2-weeks...

As this pattern would provide the next 'support' level for the trend to continue
towards those first Quarter highs in 2011"

 

[Frank D]

SPI monthly and Weekly

SPI Trading between two key levels of 4703 (January 50% level) and Support
@ 4675.

I was looking for more upside early this week, because I had a view that US
markets would begin this week with a 2-day rise, and the SPI would open higher
on Tuesday

Instead the S&P 500 has moved into another consolidation pattern on Monday, and
the SPI remains below the January level @ 4703.

As pointed out in the Weekly report, the Aussie market and US markets aren’t in
synch, which is a concern if US markets follow a similar pattern of visiting their
own Weekly lows this month.