AMT Model & Methodology

[Frank D]

SPI Futures:- Weekly and daily range

SPI continues to consolidate in a tight 5-day range with an upward bias towards March @ 4917

The 3-day cycle is the trend guide @ 4793, and next week's highs begin
to match the March highs.

If there is a change in cycle:- break, then the view is a rotation towards
next Week's 50% level.

In other news....

The S&P 500 hit the Weekly highs on Wednesday and has
reversed down 8 points but not enough follow through to think it’s going
to continue lower towards the Weekly 50% level.

If Wednesday's high reversed down and is already trading below the
Thursday 50% level @ 1137, I would normally treat Thursday as a down day
(lower Daily close)

But it hasn't closed below 1137.

Volatility is painful at the moment.

 

[Frank D]

"Resistance on the S&P 1152 & 1159

I'd be surprised to see the S&P higher than 1159 this month" ...Thursday's report

S&P 500 Monthly and Weekly

S&P has completed the move into the March highs and I would begin to
look for a short-term pullback towards the higher timeframe 50% levels
from next week.

I'm favouring higher prices in the 2nd Quarter, but because of Friday's
spike into 1159 and the Weekly close below 1152, I feel the 'top' in
March has been reached and a rotation pattern will begin
to unfold.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

I am in the process of getting Frank's Channels into NinjaTrader, its still a work in progress but I'm getting there, just in case anyone out there is interested, PM me and I can pass them onto you once they're done if you like.

That is if it's okay with Frank first, if he's cool with it then I'll pass them on to anyone who's interested.

This is on the DAX tonight, like I said, they're a work in progress but getting there.

Hope Frank doesn't mind. I won't pass them onto anyone if he doesn't want me to, so will wait to see what he says.

Keep it up Frank


Sam.

 

[Frank D]

DOW futures

Last Week we had the same short-term sell pattern on Friday, but this
time it's matched with the March Highs @ 10725 in the DOW.

The DOW has been lagging the S&P in market dynamics, and the same
thing occurred around January's highs. S&P hangs around the highs and
waits until the DOW catches up and then they proceed to rotate back down into monthly 50% levels.

Once again i'll start next week with the expectation of a short-term
reversal pattern and then see how it reacts to the Weekly 50% level.

However, I’m not expecting the same swift reversal as in
January/February, but I would like to see some short–term pullback
into higher timeframe 50% levels before the continuation of the UP trends
in the 2nd Quarter.

 

[Frank D]

S&P Monthly and Daily range

Same pattern as last Monday….

Gap down from Friday’s highs and swing back into the monthly highs @ 1162

Upside targets in the 2nd quarter are 1200-1255…

I just prefer not to see the market hug the highs each month until those upper targets are reached.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500 Futures

US markets along with the SPI continue to consolidate around the
March highs without any length of pullbacks.

Finally S&P provided enough range rotation of the downside on Thursday,
as it remains within the daily range.

I would still like to see more downside before there's more upside in the
2nd Quarter

 

[Frank D]

SPI monthly and Daily range

March highs complete and reversal down from sycom 5-day highs on
Friday @ 4950

Whenever a Friday high reversal pattern occurs I immediately factor in a
2-day reversal pattern:- First target 4870....

Friday selling on the SPI with a break of the dailyay channel @ 4896

Short-term target is the R42 completion @ 4870 (from Yesterday)

Potential move towards the daily lows by Friday/Monday

Quarter coming into an end, with upside targets in the 2nd Quarter @
5100+

Ideal pattern to capture next trend upwards would be to use the April
50% levels as support/ trend guide.

However, the SPI might not continue down from March highs
into the April 50% levels just yet. That's going to depend on US price action.

I'm not factoring in the same Reversal pattern like January's highs into February's lows.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500


2nd Quarter target 1230 (secondary Trend)

Monthly ranges:- (Intermediate trend).

Weekly ranges:- (lesser Trends) & any reversal down will be first verified with the break of the Weekly 50% level

Daily patterns (5-day range):- patterns and set-ups within the multiple timeframes

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly (24 hour charts) and Daily range

The breakout of the March high @ 4757 has completed today with the April highs @ 4975:- break and extend pattern.

Tuesday's daily breakout range @ 4959 has supported the market today,
and can push up towards Wednesday's highs tomorrow.

I do have a view of higher prices in the 2nd Quarter towards 5170, but
I personally wouldn’t want to be buying into the market when it’s
already around the highs at the start of a new cycle, and also the
completion of the break & extend pattern from last month into this month.

It’s the start of a new cycle so I want to use support levels and I
would need to see the SPI rotate back towards the monthly 50% levels
(3-week lows).

It might take 4-6 weeks until price slowly unwinds towards support
levels, but I’m patient when trading certain stocks.

If the Market continues to trend up towards 5170 I miss out during
this Quarter.

The only way a rotation is going to continue down in the short-term
(this week) is if the S&P follows the same price action from 1185 and
begins to slowly unwind towards 1164, and not continue to push up
towards the April highs (charts above)

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

Break & extend pattern complete for April and looking for a unwinding
pattern over the next few weeks.

My view remains a reversal pattern towards the Weekly lows and then the monthly 50% level
(MAY 50%) over the next 4-6 weeks.

S&P reversal down from 1185 helps the cause

 

[Frank D]

SPI (Left) and S&P 500 (right)


SPI resistance this week has shifted and should see higher prices
next week and into the April highs with matching Weekly highs.

S&P Weekly highs @ 1185 stalled the market until Friday, and is
now continuing with the March breakout @ 1162 and extension into 1201.

2nd Quarter highs remain 5170 & 1230 in both markets.

I still have the view that there is a potential move into the 50% levels
over the next 4-6 weeks before those upper targets in the 2nd Quarter are reached.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI Trading around the April highs (resistance)...

However it's the patterns in US markets that's going to decide on whether
it follows my view of a reversal pattern down into 50% levels.

Both the October highs in 2009 & the January highs in 2010 aligned with
the DOW’s Monthly highs, and both ‘topped’ out on the 5-day highs on
Thursday.

The same pattern has occurred last night in the DOW.

To help validate the scenario, Friday in the US needs to have a lower
daily close preferrably around the 5-day lows & not a higher daily close.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

Precise tops on Thursday often lead to a reversal pattern down into the
daily lows the next day, as per Monthly highs resistance patterns


And in my opinion continue down as the month comes to end.

However, I would like to see a double top early next week.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

Monday’s low and expectant 2-day counter-trend move has
completed:- 'double top'

At this point I’m bearish once again, however there is nothing to
validate that position until there is a break of the Weekly 50% levels.

Wednesday’s 5-day 50% level is now something I’ll keep an eye.

Whilst price remains above the Weekly 50% level then 2nd quarter highs
@ 1230 is the target in MAY.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500

Expectation of a 'double top' and reversal pattern is slowly taking place.

However, I was a little disappointed that Price hadn’t made its way
towards the Daily lows on Wednesday, as this is the usual pattern
that occurs in 'double top' and monthly reversal patterns….

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly

Aussie market continues to rotate down from April highs, whilst US
markets continue to hover around their own April highs... which is annoying.

I said it would take 4-6 weeks to unwind towards the Monthly 50% levels, which is about right at the moment.

 

[Frank D]

S&P 500


Thursday's support off the Weekly 50% level & Support on Friday
@ 1198.50 pushed the market into a higher daily close

And the expected Double top formation has failed to materialise.

With the Daily close above 1211, it’s most likely that the S&P will follow the Weekly range upwards next week…..

And continue towards 1230 and 2nd Quarter highs in MAY.

 

[Frank D]

SPI futures and DOW futures

Delayed reversal pattern in US markets in April, has seen the SPI move
down and complete the rotation towards the April 50% level in the last
week of the month.

As per my expectation.... if there is going to be a move towards the 2nd Quarter highs then the
price action from next week onwards (MAY 50% level) is something to keep an eye on:-
as part of a 2-month higher high pattern (June).

Note:- US markets aren’t near their own monthly 50% levels,
therefore April 50% level is a target and MAY 50% level is the trend
guide.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Futures

As per my view from a number of weeks ago, this rotation down into
the monthly 50% levels is part of a medium term pullback and with the
view that the market is moving towards the 2nd Quarter highs in June.

Short-term view:- 3-day counter trend move upwards off these lows

Word of Warning….

I like to verify my view with the same patterns in US markets, and that’s
not the case as they aren’t near the same support levels.

This could result in two patterns….

3-week consolidation around these levels in MAY and then look for late
month or early June set-ups in the Australian Market…

Whilst US markets continue to slowly unwind over the next 3-weeks and
align with the MAY 50% levels providing potential early June set-up.

Obviously below these MAY 50% levels any uptrend is open to risk.

 

[Frank D]

SPI Monthly and S&P 500 Monthly

SPI swing trading within the monthly levels, whilst US markets complete
the move into the Quarterly 50% levels with last week's down move into support.

The Aussie market completed that move in the first Quarter, forming a
double monthly low pattern:- expectant pattern (february)

During the course of the year markets will revisit these 3-month lows,
and now that's over in US markets it is whether there is going to be a
double monthly low pattern in June that's the focus, or if MAY closes back above the monthly 50% levels.

If the S&P 500 follows a double monthly low pattern, this should drag the
SPI back towards 4295, and then probably remain range bound between
4295 and recent highs for the rest of 2010.

Primary Trend consolidation until a shift in the Primary levels for 2011.